Waiting for the non-farm payroll and tariff decision! U.S. stock futures remain flat, the dollar index breaks through 99, and base metals copper and aluminum continue to climb.

January 9 – Most Asia-Pacific stock markets closed higher, European stocks opened slightly higher, and the three major U.S. stock index futures were basically flat as investors await non-farm payroll data and a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court on tariffs. This will be one of the biggest tests for global equity markets since their rebound from the tariff-driven decline in April. In commodities, spot gold hovered near the $4,470 mark, and silver rose slightly. Copper, aluminum, and other base metals continued to climb on Friday, driven by supply concerns and optimistic demand outlooks. In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies, poised for its best single-week performance since last November. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 1 basis point to 4.18%. The U.S. bond market has entered a narrow range of fluctuation for a month, with the 10-year yield moving between 4.1% and 4.2%, marking the narrowest monthly range since 2020. **Core Market Movements:** - S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq 100 futures, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were almost flat. - MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.2%, MSCI Emerging Markets Index was nearly flat; - U.S. dollar index rose 0.1%, touched a high of 99, euro was nearly flat at $1.1651, yen fell 0.3% to 1 dollar = 157.38 yen; - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield almost flat at 4.18%; - UK 10-year gilt yield fell 1 basis point to 4.40%; - Japan’s 10-year government bond yield up 1.5 basis points to 2.090%; - Spot gold was almost flat at $4,474.75/oz; spot silver rose 0.84% to $77.66/oz; - London copper futures rose over 1% to $12,866/ton; London aluminum futures also rose over 1% to $3,130/ton; - Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $90,994.85; Ethereum rose 0.1% to $3,120.83. According to Wallstreetcn’s article, the current market consensus expects about 70,000 new non-farm jobs added in December, with the unemployment rate likely to drop slightly to 4.5%. The money market currently expects the Fed to cut rates at least twice by 2026. Additionally, the Supreme Court may issue a ruling on most Trump tariff policies as soon as Friday. Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets, said: "Markets are clearly showing volatility in the face of tonight’s U.S. employment data and concerns over the Supreme Court ruling, which will dominate short-term sentiment. The market is overall cautiously optimistic, but we need stability on the geopolitical front and more information from the U.S. after the government shutdown led to data ambiguity." ## U.S. Stock Futures Flat On Friday, U.S. stock futures were basically flat. During Thursday's session, investors shifted from technology stocks to other sectors. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.4%, dragged down by declines in Nvidia, Palantir, and Broadcom. Vishnu Varathan, Head of Macroeconomic Research for Mizuho Securities Asia (ex Japan), wrote in a report: “Before the non-farm payroll data and the Supreme Court's possible ruling on 'reciprocal tariffs', the market is in cautious mode.” Ohsung Kwon, Chief Equity Strategist at Wells Fargo, said: "Companies are taking a wait-and-see attitude on tariffs before starting inventory replenishment. We may have a ruling as soon as Friday. I think after that, companies may begin replenishing, which will kick off the manufacturing cycle.” The stock market is still expected to record gains for the week. The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far this week, with the Dow and Nasdaq up about 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively. On Thursday, Trump said he was instructing the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower housing costs. This move pushed up mortgage bonds and sent U.S. mortgage lender stocks soaring. There are currently about $9 trillion in agency mortgage-backed securities in the market. Bloomberg’s strategist team pointed out that Trump’s willingness to directly intervene in business is increasing, which may dampen the momentum of stocks and bonds and pose a potential drag on global markets. Unless presidential intervention slows, U.S. assets are unlikely to rise decisively. ## Copper & Aluminum Lead Base Metals Higher Base metal prices continued to climb on Friday, with major varieties such as copper and aluminum rising more than 1%. The sector maintained a strong rebound, driven by supply tightening concerns and rising investor enthusiasm for commodities. The LMEX Index, which tracks the six main London-traded base metals, is expected to post its fourth consecutive weekly rise, marking the longest consecutive uptrend since August last year. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for copper prices in the first half of the year to $12,750 per ton, though the bank expects prices to fall back in the second half. Worries about potential U.S. import tariffs are pushing metals into the U.S. market, tightening supply in other regions—an important factor driving copper prices higher. According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk news, results of the U.S. Section 232 investigation into critical minerals tariffs are expected to be announced this Saturday (January 10). On January 8, Citi’s Kenny Hu research team suggested that if tariffs are not put in place, metals will flow out of the U.S. to other regions, easing the current extremely tight market and lowering London spot prices. Besides the upcoming "Section 232" tariff investigation result that may trigger sharp volatility in the precious metals market, large-scale commodity index rebalancing trades have begun, with silver and other varieties facing unprecedented selling pressure. The outlook for the mining sector is also drawing attention. Rio Tinto said it is in acquisition talks with Glencore, and if the deal is successful, it will create the world’s largest mining company. This would be the largest transaction in mining history, as the industry sees a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with producers seeking to expand copper reserves. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market carries risk, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this article are at your own risk.