Wall Street backs record-breaking IPOs, Morgan Stanley: SpaceX's revenue may reach 3.4 trillion yuan by 2040!

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To support the largest IPO in history, Wall Street's top investment banks are presenting institutional investors with an unprecedented vision for the future.

According to media reports, in an analysis shared with top investors last Thursday, Morgan Stanley predicted that SpaceX's revenue may reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA possibly surpassing $2.7 trillion.

This forecast aims to support SpaceX’s target valuation of $1.77 trillion—the company plans to complete around $75 billion in financing next week, which, if successful, will set a global IPO record.

For investors accustomed to pricing based on current fundamentals, these numbers are quite challenging: SpaceX’s revenue for 2025 is $18.7 billion, with a loss of $4.9 billion in the same period. The rationale provided by investment bank analysts is that the AI business will become the core engine driving the company’s leap in valuation, while this business is still in its early stages.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley occupy the top two spots among the 21 investment banks participating in SpaceX’s IPO, meaning they will take the largest share of hundreds of millions in underwriting fees.

Two Major Banks Predict: AI Business Will Account for Half of Revenue

According to sources, analysts from both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that SpaceX’s revenue will approach $160 billion by 2028, and their assessments are highly consistent.

The divergence appears in longer-term forecasts. Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX’s revenue to exceed $470 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley's prediction for that year is close to $330 billion. Both banks expect adjusted EBITDA of about $110 billion in 2028; by 2030, Goldman Sachs predicts $352 billion, and Morgan Stanley $230 billion.

Notably, the key driver behind these growth forecasts is not rocket launches or satellite internet, but AI business.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that this division's revenue in 2030 will be about $322 billion, Morgan Stanley’s prediction is about $190 billion—while SpaceX’s AI business division revenue in 2025 is only $3.2 billion, accounting for a tiny portion of the company’s overall revenue.

Among the 21 underwriters for SpaceX’s IPO, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead, making them poised to receive the largest share of hundreds of millions in fees.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Hold Top Two Spots Among SpaceX IPO’s 21 Investment Banks

As is customary, the above profit forecasts are produced by internal sell-side research analysts, who are organizationally independent from the investment banking divisions responsible for underwriting the IPO, with an information barrier between them.

Investment banks typically distribute these research reports to selected institutional investors during IPO roadshows for reference.

However, the interests involved should not be overlooked. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley occupy the top two spots among the 21 investment banks in this SpaceX IPO, meaning both institutions will take the largest share of hundreds of millions in underwriting fees.

Faced with the $1.77 trillion target valuation, both the dozens-fold forward growth expectations and the current persistent losses are core variables investors must weigh in their subscription decisions.

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