Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | April 9, 2026

Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | April 9, 2026

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Market Overview

Boosted by the US-Iran ceasefire, US stocks saw the largest short squeeze since 2020, and European stocks saw the largest gain since 2022.

All three major US stock indices rose more than 2%. The S&P 500 was up for the sixth consecutive trading day, marking the longest streak since last September, with over 400 stocks rising. The Nasdaq surged 2.8%. Meta once jumped 9.5%, Tesla fell about 1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 6.3%, hitting a record high. SanDisk soared nearly 10% to a new high. Intel surged more than 11%. Airline and cruise stocks jumped.

Global government bond yields plunged in early trading; European 10-year yields saw double-digit basis point drops. But in the US session, as market sentiment cooled and demand for US Treasury auctions fell, yields rebounded. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended flat, while the 30-year even edged up 1.2 basis points.

The dollar dropped nearly 0.7% in a day, erasing gains for the year. Offshore yuan surged more than 200 points in one day, hitting a three-year high. Bitcoin rose 3%, nearing $73,000 intraday, Ethereum jumped 5%.

Spot gold rose over 3% at one point before retracing, ending up 0.3% from the previous close. Silver also spiked then fell back, ending up 1.5%. WTI crude oil futures plunged over 16%, marking the biggest daily drop since the 2020 COVID shock.

In Asia, the ChiNext Index soared nearly 6%, tech stocks soared across the board, yuan hit a three-year high, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 5%, oil and gas stocks fell collectively.

Headlines

China

Trump believes China pushed Iran to join the ceasefire talks; Foreign Ministry responds.

Zhihu raises prices by another 10% and releases GLM-5.1, shares surge.

Mysterious "Happy Horse" appeared and dominated the charts, crushing Seedance 2.0, video AI has changed again.

Overseas

After attacks in Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz closes again; Iran reportedly charges a "transit fee" with limited passage, White House says Trump opposes fees. Iran claims ceasefire terms, including Lebanon, were violated, undermining "negotiation foundation"; Trump says the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon. White House says the first US-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on the 11th; Iran's initial "10-point plan" rejected. Iran says only if Lebanon ceasefire happens will they talk with the US.

Fed minutes: Iran war brings dual risk, many officials fear inflation worsening and possible rate hikes. "New Fed News Agency": Whether or not a ceasefire is reached, the outlook for Fed rate cuts is bleak.

Anthropic’s new breakthrough! Claude managing agents will build and deploy 10x faster.

Meta releases its first major AI model, Muse Spark, stocks surged 9.5%.

Dell CEO: AI memory demand will surge 625x, supply shortage will persist for years.

Market Recap

US and European Stocks: S&P 500 closed up 165.96 points, up 2.51% at 6782.81. Dow Jones up 2.85%, at 47909.92. Nasdaq up 2.80%, at 22634.995. Europe’s STOXX 600 up 3.88%, at 613.50.

A-shares: Shanghai Index closed at 3995.00, up 2.69%. Shenzhen Index closed at 14042.50, up 4.79%. ChiNext Index closed at 3347.61, up 5.91%.

Bonds: US 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.98 bp to 4.2831%. 2-year Treasury yield fell 0.43 bp to 3.7834%.

Commodities: WTI May crude futures closed down 16.41% at $94.41/barrel. Brent June futures down 13.29% at $94.75/barrel. Spot gold up 0.27% at $4719.21/oz; spot silver up 1.56% at $74.1444/oz.

Headline Details

Global Heavyweights

China

Trump believes China pushed Iran to join ceasefire talks, Foreign Ministry responds. Mao Ning stated that since Iran’s war broke out, China has actively worked to promote peace and stop the war. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has spoken with other countries' foreign ministers 26 times; China’s Middle East Special Envoy visited the Middle East and Gulf regions; China and Pakistan jointly proposed a five-point initiative to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and Middle East.

Zhihu raises prices by another 10% and releases GLM-5.1, shares surge! Zhihu formally released its new open-source model GLM-5.1 this week. Meanwhile, OpenRouter shows Zhihu GLM has raised prices by another 10%, cloud invocation price increased by 8%–17% compared to GLM-5 Turbo. This is at least the second price increase since 2026. The news boosted market sentiment, with shares up nearly 19% intraday.

Happy Horse Dominates, surpasses Seedance 2.0, Video AI changed again? The mysterious video model HappyHorse-1.0 soared to the top of the Artificial Analysis chart, way ahead of Seedance 2.0, sparking debate. Its origins are unclear, speculations suggest it’s an optimized version based on daVinci-MagiHuman and possibly linked to Alibaba. More importantly, open-source models are approaching closed-source levels, possibly changing the industry landscape.

“Departed colleagues are refined and become digital immortals”. According to The Paper, a Shandong company attempted to train departed employees into AI digital avatars to continue working. The avatars only handle simple tasks like consulting or making spreadsheets, essentially prompt engineering, lacking memory and professional judgment. Concerns stem from the "uncanny valley" effect and worries about data “distillation.” The workplace is being reshaped: AI won’t replace your job, but “people who use AI” will. Reshaping yourself is not about turning into data but becoming someone who cannot be defined by data.

Overseas

After Lebanon attack, Strait of Hormuz closed again; Iran charges fees with limited passage, White House says Trump opposes. Iranian media said, in response to Israel’s attack on Lebanon, Iran closed the strait, forcing oil tankers to return. The White House said Trump requires no strait transit fees as a ceasefire precondition. Iran charges $1 per barrel, settled by bitcoin; passage limited to 12 ships per day. First ships through the strait after ceasefire carried dry bulk, not oil. Maersk will not resume Hormuz routes; Hyundai to reroute ships via the Cape of Good Hope.

Iran says ceasefire terms violated, undermining "negotiation foundation"; Trump says ceasefire excludes Lebanon, Vance says never promised inclusion. According to Iran’s parliament speaker, violations include drone intrusions and uranium enrichment rights. Vance to lead talks with Iran, says Iran misunderstood, thinking ceasefire covers Lebanon, which US never promised. If Israel keeps attacking Lebanon, Iran may exit ceasefire, considering deterrent action against Israel’s military positions. Iran’s military says if Israel doesn’t stop attacking Lebanon, it will face “heavy retaliation”; US and Israel “yield” to Iran’s ceasefire terms, preparing for broader, fiercer war. Trump reportedly does not object to a confrontation with Hezbollah; US Defense Secretary threatens to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. Israeli PM says temporary ceasefire does not mean the war is over, Israel is ready to fight again. IDF says it launched the largest air strike on Lebanon since this round of conflict began; Lebanon claims hundreds killed or injured, strongly condemning “barbaric” conduct.

White House: First US-Iran talks in Pakistan on the 11th; Iran’s initial "10-point plan" rejected; Iran says only Lebanon ceasefire will trigger talks. White House said US VP Vance to lead talks, including Middle East envoy, Trump’s son-in-law Kushner; the US basis for negotiation is not the 10-point plan but a streamlined Iranian proposal. US insists "Iran must not enrich uranium domestically."

Trump: Proposes US-Iran joint management of Hormuz Strait, threatens 50% tariff on weapon suppliers to Iran. Trump said the US may seek a "joint project" with Iran to secure the strait. He said any country supplying weapons to Iran will face "50% tariffs on any and all goods sold to the US,” effective immediately, with no exceptions. Iran said before the US-Iran talks start in Pakistan, Hormuz Strait may be opened to limited passage under Iranian control on the 9th or 10th.

Trump: Hormuz will create "massive wealth"; most Iran proposal terms already agreed. Trump’s team says a framework for a long-term agreement with Iran is already in place, insists any peace pact must cover nuclear material. Most Iran proposal terms are agreed. Trump refuses to state if he will resume threatened actions if the deal breaks. Iran says their ten ceasefire points include allowing uranium enrichment, differing from Trump’s nuclear stance.

Iran says US pledges to fulfill eight obligations; if US does not accept "ten-point plan," ceasefire invalid. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council says US has pledged to stop military action, accept uranium enrichment, lift sanctions, pay compensation, etc., totaling eight obligations. If the US rejects the ten-point plan, the Supreme Leader will not approve the ceasefire. Trump says most terms agreed. Iran’s parliament speaker to lead negotiations; US team led by VP Vance.

Ceasefire ink barely dry, Saudi oil pipeline hit by drones, Middle East tension rises again. The pipeline hit was a station on Saudi’s east-west oil pipeline, which is crucial for Saudi energy exports now that Hormuz shipping is almost closed. UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain say attacks continued even hours after ceasefire announcement.

Energy chokepoint "thaws"! Qatar LNG giant restarts maintenance, production may resume soon. After the Middle East ceasefire, Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG plant, is preparing to restart, with some production resuming soon, though ramp-up speed unknown. Any large-scale recovery depends on smooth passage through Hormuz.

Fed minutes: Iran war brings dual risks, many officials worry about inflation and possible rate hikes. Fed minutes revealed growing concern among officials that Iran war may fuel inflation further, with clear language stating the Fed might have to consider raising rates. Most worry prolonged war will harm the labor market and require rate cuts, while many stressed inflation risk may need rate hikes. Those most worried urged inclusion of rate hike possibility in post-meeting statements.

"New Fed News Agency": Regardless of ceasefire, Fed rate cut outlook is bleak. Nick Timiraos says the US-Iran ceasefire may simply replace one problem with another for the Fed: a long-enough energy shock to raise inflation but not severely damage demand, causing rates to stay high for a long time. If the risk of recession from Iran conflict was the best reason for the Fed to resume cuts, ending the war may actually make easing harder in near-term; ceasefire also lowers rate hike possibility.

Anthropic breakthrough! Claude managing agents to build and deploy 10x faster. Claude managing agent is a composable API suite, a fully managed runtime environment, so developers need not handle underlying infrastructure. It allows AI to perform long-term tasks. Anthropic emphasizes the agent is not just model invocation, but a system for sustained operation, multi-step decisions, external tool calls, auto correction and retries.

Meta's $1.5 billion bet comes to fruition? Meta releases its first major AI model, Muse Spark. Muse Spark is the first model from Meta’s “Super Intelligence Lab,” and the first since they recruited Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang last year, shifting Meta from open-source to closed-source. It focuses on small, fast models, embedded in Facebook and other social media, emphasizing AI shopping assistants. Meta admits its capabilities don’t match ChatGPT, positioning it as a starting model. Meta stock once surged 9.5%.

Dell CEO: AI memory demand to surge 625x, supply shortage for years. Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell predicts AI’s wave will drive global memory demand up 625 times—single machine memory grows 25x, deployment scale grows 25x; supply catch-up will take years. Sovereign AI and enterprise upgrades fuel double demand engines. He clarifies the current market debate: not "to buy or not," but "when to buy."

Featured Research Reports

In-depth: How did Trump "drag" the US into the Iran war? Netanyahu "sells" rapid victory in White House intelligence room, CIA calls plan "absurd," VP Vance fails to block it—Trump eventually gave the green light on Air Force One, just 22 minutes before the deadline: "'Epic Fury Operation' approved, no stopping." Thus began a war rewriting the Middle East landscape.

Dalio's latest essay: World War "has begun", 5-year outbreak chance over 50%. Bridgewater founder Dalio warned: US-Israel-Iran conflict is not isolated but part of a bigger world war, with over 50% probability of outbreaks in the next 5 years. He cited 500 years of historical cycles, saying current situations resemble 1913 and 1938, now at a critical "pre-war to war" transition; typical trajectory is escalation rather than easing.

Goldman trading head: Why I chose not to chase index rally? Rich Privorotsky, Goldman Delta-One head, says if oil stays above pre-war levels, this rally is more a short-covering technical rebound, not a trend worth chasing. Fragility of ceasefire agreement and Iran’s ambiguous stance on Hormuz passage are potential risks. The ultimate market judge is actual tanker traffic in Hormuz, and that will take time to verify.

Bull Tom Lee: Ceasefire means US stocks "bottom confirmed," decisive rally ahead. Lee believes the US-Iran ceasefire removes risk of large bombing, meaning US stocks "bottom is confirmed." If S&P 500 reclaims its 200-day MA, a "decisive upward breakout" is highly likely.

Replacing gas turbines, AI power’s top answer is gas generator sets? HSBC says gas generator sets, with faster delivery, quicker start and high flexibility, are quickly replacing gas turbines as first choice for AI data center main power. Leading manufacturers’ orders booked till end of 2027, supply tightness will continue to 2027–2028, prices to rise 10%-15% annually in this period.

Domestic Companies

China’s first browser "Lobster" online, free with WeChat scan. Tencent Cloud released the first domestic browser agent "Lobster" QBotClaw, users can use it free via WeChat scan. Supports file operations, browser automation, cross-platform publishing, compatible with OpenClaw skills, supports main model API keys, signifying accelerating rollout of low-barrier AI automation apps.

100+ institutions eye a single quantum computing company. Quantum computing is seeing unprecedented capital frenzy—Q1 2026 financing exceeded all of 2025. Tsinghua’s quantum team spin-off Liangyi Wanxiang completed 100 million RMB A round in just one year, with investors like Shunwei Capital, iFlytek; over 100 institutions crowded in. From whole machine manufacturing to quantum-intelligence integration, the full-chain ambition may be the best signal for quantum computing’s “eve of boom.”

Qianfan constellation "rushes for arrows": satellite networking bottleneck. China’s large satellite internet constellation "Qianfan" completed its first networking launch this year, now has 126 satellites in orbit, still far from the 15,000 target by 2030. Main obstacle is not tech, but short supply of commercial rockets—slow capacity ramp, limited state resources, stricter launch approvals.

Chinalco Q1 net profit up 50%-58% YoY, historic best for the period. Chinalco expects Q1 2026 parent net profit at 5.302–5.585 billion RMB, up 50-58% YoY, best on record. Gains driven mainly by core business, with non-recurring net profit also up. Big jump is thanks to three key factors: full capacity and excellence lowering marginal costs, higher self-mining ratio boosting raw material bargaining power, and fine cost management throughout the value chain.

Overseas Macro

ECB rate hike expectations "cool overnight"! Ceasefire boosts market, European bonds see largest daily gain since 2023. After US-Iran ceasefire, oil prices plummeted, relieving inflation concerns, traders quickly cut rate hike bets, ECB and Bank of England each dropped one 25bp rate hike expectation, European bonds saw biggest daily gain since 2023. Analysis says ceasefire "has time limit and is fragile," so rebound’s sustainability is in doubt.

Overseas Companies

SpaceX IPO countdown: most expensive IPO ever, retail investors finally included. SpaceX is officially counting down to IPO, expected to list in June, valued at 1.75–2 trillion USD, likely the largest IPO ever. Key highlight: retail allocation up to 30%, far above industry norms. Market watches whether business narratives support valuation, and if this mega IPO squeezes fundraising for other firms.

Industries/Concepts

1. Computing Power | April 9–11, 2026 Third AI Computing Industry Conference & Expo to be held in Shenzhen. Topics include smart terminals, AI computing, data storage, artificial intelligence, gathering server makers, computing center builders, and large model leaders. During 2026 Spring Festival, China's large model Token usage surged, per OpenRouter data, platform's top ten models totaled about 8.7 trillion Tokens, with Chinese models at 5.3 trillion, making up 61%.

Comment: CITIC Securities says explosive Token growth reflects exponential AI reasoning demand. Domestic computing power, with cost and ecosystem advantages, may lead at infrastructure level.

Company: Runze Technology (300442) leader in computing power leasing, closely tied to leading internet firms. Sugon (603019) leading server maker, deploying AI computing and smart centers.

2. AI Apps | Sensor Tower data shows since Q1 2025, App Store submissions keep rising, with clear acceleration in early 2026. Full-year 2025 submissions up 30% YoY, near 600,000 total; Q1 2026 saw 235,800 quarterly submissions.

Comment: Shenwan Hongyuan says large model updates and enhanced on-device deployment are fueling long-term growth. Changjiang Securities says with AI commercialization speeding up, capex leads commercialization by about a year, and AI apps are about to hit a turning point in 2026.

3. Dyes | Baichuan Yingfu data shows April 7, reactive dye prices jumped 28%, to 32 RMB/kg.

Comment: Guotou Securities says current H-acid effective capacity below 60,000 tons, >10% gap, strengthening cost support expectations for reactive dyes. China is the world’s largest dye producer, but as a high-pollution industry, dyes have long been under strict environmental/safety regulation. With tight supply, prices may climb quickly.

4. Targets (for semiconductors) | Securities Times says in Q1 2026, electronic target material companies raised prices across the board; regular targets up over 20%, small specialty metals up 60–70%.

Comment: Semiconductor targets are irreplaceable in chip manufacturing, enabling conduction, interconnection, and integration, dubbed the "cornerstone" of chips. Frost & Sullivan expects global semiconductor sputtering target market to reach 25.11 billion RMB by 2027. Research says current supply-demand relations may bring a boom. Domestic substitution and price hikes should drive rapid profit growth for Chinese target companies.

5. Gas Turbines | China Energy Net says Siemens Energy's Q1 2026 results saw record orders for gas turbines, driven by data center self-built plant demand—8.75 billion euros, backlog at 60 billion euros at 2025 end. CEO Christian Bruch said delivery is booked already through 2029/2030, with 2028 supply also tight.

Comment: Analysts say as major international makers’ capacity tightens and domestic firms win dense deals, gas turbines—fast deployment, stable power, clean emissions—are key solutions for the computing era. Wood Mackenzie’s report on US gas turbines says electricity demand growth, especially data centers, has created severe imbalance, likely driving prices up through 2027.

6. Ultra HD | Sina Finance says World Ultra HD Video Industry Alliance (UWA Alliance) announced HDR Vivid format upgraded from working doc to initial report draft, marking China’s ultra HD standards entering key international stage. HDR Vivid is next-gen HDR tech, offering richer colors, finer light details, more realistic images, greatly improving ultra HD visual effects.

Comment: HDR Vivid included in broadcasting industry standards, accepted nationally; HDR Vivid is open throughout production, transmission, and terminal decoding; smart adaptation enables every device to show its best display using dynamic metadata.

7. Transformers | US EIA April 7 report says US electricity usage hit record in 2025, rising further in 2026 and 2027. EIA expects power demand to go from 4195 billion kWh in 2025 to 4244 in 2026 and 4381 in 2027. Mainly driven by AI data centers, plus households and enterprises switching to more electricity and less fossil fuel for heating/transport.

Comment: The main driver of power demand surge is AI-related data center expansion. Authorities note new large AI and crypto data centers have rapidly come online in the US, lifting power consumption structurally. North America’s rapid AI growth drives high load increases; US grid under “overdue service,” load spike clashes with old base, bringing huge upgrade/new build pressure. AI data centers require high power stability, gas turbines—stable output, low cost—are CSPs’ first choice. CSPs buy turbines to boost grid connection; Chinese exporters benefit from US power build boom.

Today’s Preview

China March financial data

14th China Electronic Information Expo opens

US Q4 real GDP

US February core PCE price index, personal income, expenditure

US initial jobless claims last week

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