Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 11, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Major jobs report to be releasedAI concerns reignited, S&P and Nasdaq declined, but the Dow hit a three-day record high; new AI tools triggered industry outlook worries, wealth management stocks plunged, Charles Schwab closed down over 7%; among the “Tech Magnificent Seven”, Tesla rose nearly 2% alone, Google fell nearly 2% leading the declines; memory chip stocks dropped significantly, SanDisk fell over 7%. Pan-European stock index ended its record highs for now, insurance sector down nearly 2% leading declines, but Kering rose 11% due to Q4 sales decline easing more than expected.

US retail data disappointed, US Treasury prices accelerated upward, yields fell further, 10-year US Treasury yield hit near one-month low, Dollar index fell further intraday, hitting a new low for over a week.

Yen rose over 1% intraday for two consecutive days; Offshore RMB hit nearly three-year new high, breaking above 6.91 intraday for the first time in three years; Bitcoin fell below $68,000 intraday, down nearly 4% from the day's high.

Gold, silver, copper and oil halted two-day gains: Spot gold once fell over 1% intraday, below $5000, silver futures once fell over 3% intraday, both rebounding after US retail sales data; Oil once down over 1%.

In Asia, Shanghai Composite edged up for six consecutive days, AI applications exploded, space photovoltaics collectively pulled back, Hang Seng up 0.5%, Zhipu surged nearly 15%.

Key News

China

People's Bank of China Q4 monetary policy implementation report: will continue implementing appropriately loose monetary policy, normalize government bond trading operations; adjustment of asset allocation by residents does not mean significant liquidity changes; positive marginal changes in prices, will continue to strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policies.

Li Qiang: Reasonable development of rare earth resources needed.

ByteDancelaunches new model Seedream 5.0 Preview, benchmarking Google's Nano Banana Pro.

Alibabareleases RynnBrain robot large model, giving robots a “thinking brain”, surpasses Google and Nvidia in evaluation.

AI spending boom continues, TSMCJanuary sales surged 36.8% year-on-year.

SMICQ4 net profit 1.22 billion yuan, up 23.2% year-on-year, capital expenditure in 2026 expected to equal 2025.

Black Myth: Zhong Kuiunexpected live-action short film topped hot searches, over 2.2 million views in two hours, 120,000 people watched live.

Overseas

USDecember retail sales unexpectedly stagnated month-on-month, weak consumption at the end of the holiday season; 10-year US Treasury yield hit a near one-month low, dollar index reached a new low intraday for over a week.

Trump expects to hold second round of talks with Iran next week, said “Iran will not possess nuclear weapons or missiles”; if US-Iran negotiations fail, another aircraft carrier strike group may be sent to the Middle East.

AI panic “spreads”: Altruistnew toolcrashed wealth management stocks, Charles Schwab fell over 9% intraday.

Alphabetcentury-pound bond subscription rate over 7 times, nearly 32 billion USD debt raised across multiple markets, first-time issuance of Swiss franc bonds.

Musk xAIloses another core member, co-founder Wu Yuhua announces resignation.

Market Closing Report

US & European Stocks: S&P 500 down 0.33% to 6941.81 points; Dow up 0.10% to 50188.14 points; Nasdaq down 0.59% to 23102.474 points. Europe STOXX 600 down 0.07% to 620.97 points.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 0.13% to 4128.37 points. Shenzhen Component up 0.02% to 14210.63 points. ChiNext down 0.37% to 3320.54 points.

Bond Market: At the close, US 10-year Treasury yield about 4.14%, down about 6 bps intraday; 2-year Treasury yield about 3.45%, down about 4 bps intraday.

Commodities: WTI Mar crude futures down 0.62% to $63.96/barrel. Brent Apr crude down 0.35% to $68.80/barrel. COMEX Apr gold futures down 0.95% to $5031/oz. COMEX Mar silver futures down 2.25% to $80.384/oz. LME copper down about 0.5% to $13,108/ton. LME aluminum down about 1% to $3,093/ton. LME nickel up about 0.8% to $17,490/ton, three-day rally.

Key News Details

Global Highlights

China

PBOC Q4 monetary policy implementation report: continue implementing appropriately loose monetary policy, will normalize government bond trading operations. The report says PBOC has implemented an appropriately loose monetary policy, based on good execution of existing policy, it has launched a package of monetary and financial policy tools, strengthened counter-cyclical adjustment, effectively supported stable growth of the real economy and stable operation of financial markets. PBOC will normalize government bond trading, monitor long-term yield changes, and flexibly manage operation scale.

• PBOC monetary policy report column: Resident asset allocation adjustment does not mean significant liquidity changes. PBOC points out, as China’s financial market deepens, direct financing develops faster, financing channels diversify, residents’ savings asset allocation among deposits and asset management products will be more varied, directly affecting the structure of banks' liabilities, but not equivalent to actual liquidity changes in the financial system or real economy.
• PBOC latest signals: Positive marginal price changes, will continuously strengthen monetary and fiscal policy coordination. The column notes three modes for coordination: (1) PBOC keeps markets liquid through open market operations to support government bond issuance; (2) Uses “relending + fiscal subsidies” to coordinate supply and demand in the credit market, optimizing resource allocation; (3) Uses guarantees and additional credit to share risks, increasing risk appetite and supporting financing for enterprises.

Li Qiang: Reasonable development of rare earth resources. Xinhua reports, Li Qiang says to reasonably develop rare earth resources, strengthen overall planning, optimize industry layout, improve recycling systems, raise efficient utilization. Ecological protection should have priority, improve green standards for production, promote green development throughout the cycle. Focus on basic and applied research, promote breakthroughs in core technologies, build innovation highlands. Deepen integration of industry, academia, research, and application, expand rare earth applications in new energy and materials, promote full industry chain synergy and smooth circulation, continually improve quality and efficiency.

ByteDance another new model: Seedream 5.0 Preview launches, benchmarks Google Nano Banana Pro. ByteDance’s Seedream 5.0 Preview image model supports 2K/4K resolution and search-generated images, improved prompt understanding and detail generation. The new model is more stable in abstract semantics and multi-step image-text generation. This iteration is practical, strengthening networked knowledge, local editing and intelligent reasoning, showing the industry shift from visual wow to application depth. However, users sense little from minor upgrades, and bottlenecks remain in logic composition and text rendering.

Alibaba releases RynnBrain robot model, gives robots “thinking brain”, outperforms Google & Nvidia! Alibaba releases RynnBrain robot AI foundational model, breaks records in 16 embodied intelligence tasks, outperforms Google, Nvidia, and other mainstream models. RynnBrain integrates space-time memory and reasoning, enabling robots to autonomously plan and execute multiple tasks in complex scenarios.

AI spending boom continues, TSMC January sales up 36.8% year-on-year. TSMC’s January sales reached NT$401.26 billion, up 36.8% YoY, up 19.8% MoM over Dec 2025, exceeding the company’s annual forecast of 30% growth, reflecting robust global AI spending.

SMIC Q4 net profit 1.22 billion yuan, up 23.2% YoY, 2026 capital expenditure to equal 2025. SMIC’s Q4 2025 revenue was RMB 17.813 billion, up 11.9% YoY; parent company net profit RMB 1.223 billion, up 23.2% YoY, non-recurring net profit up 112.4% YoY. Annual revenue RMB 67.323 billion, up 16.5% YoY, gross margin to 21.0%. Company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be stable Q/Q, annual revenue growth target above industry average, annual capital plan about USD 8.1 billion, same as 2025.

Black Myth: Zhong Kuiunexpected live-action short film: tops hot search, 120,000 viewers for a cooking scene. Game Science released a New Year’s real gameplay short for Black Myth: Zhong Kui, quickly topping Bilibili and Weibo trending lists. The video shows detailed cooking processes and bizarre fairy world, highlighting physics engine and material details. It got over 2.2 million views in two hours and over 120,000 live viewers. Producer Feng Ji says the work aims to fuse surprise and strangeness, carrying on their “annual surprise” publicity style. This short raises market expectations for new Black Myth games, showing potential as another blockbuster single-player title.

Overseas

US December retail sales unexpectedly stagnated month-on-month, weak consumption end of holiday season. US December retail sales underperformed November’s +0.6% MoM and Wall Street’s +0.4% MoM forecast. Holiday consumption was weak and uneven. 8 out of 13 retail categories saw declines, spending by low-income groups was especially weak. Though high-income households were supported by asset appreciation, overall consumption was restrained by high prices and weather factors.

US President Trump expects, second round of talks with Iran next week. He said, “Iran will not have nuclear weapons or missiles”; if US-Iran negotiations fail, another carrier strike group may be sent to the Middle East, preparing for possible military action.

AI panic “spreads”: Altruistnew tool crashes wealth management stocks, Schwab down over 9% intraday. Tuesday, Altruist launched an AI tool for tax strategy, targeting core business of traditional wealth managers. Insurance brokerage stocks also plunged after Insurify released a new tool Monday, S&P 500 insurance index fell nearly 4%, biggest drop since October 2023. Anthropic’s tool last week triggered software sector selloff, Thomson Reuters fell 20% in a week, first time ever.

Alphabet century-pound bond subscription over 7 times, nearly 32 billion USD debt raised, first Swiss franc bond. Google’s parent Alphabet issued its first 100-year bonds, more than 7 times oversubscribed, first time for tech firm since internet bubble era. Part of multi-currency fundraising to support AI development, reflecting growing capital needs for the major tech's AI race. Despite long-term industry uncertainty, strong subscription shows market confidence in its financial strength and future.

MuskxAI loses another member, co-founder Wu Yuhua resigns. Previously, other co-founders Igor Babuschkin, Kyle Kosic, Christian Szegedy also left. Greg Yang announced last month he would step down and focus on fighting Lyme disease.

• Musk’s trillion-dollar gamble: sending AI data centers to space—genius vision or sci-fi bubble? As Musk tries to merge SpaceX with xAI, touting “space AI compute in three years”, Wall Street and Silicon Valley are abuzz. Deutsche Bank predicts space compute costs will match ground by 2030, but physicists and engineers remain skeptical: space is not a summer resort, it's a “thermodynamic prison”.

Selected Opinions

Dalio’s latest in-depth interview: US is on the brink of disorder and civil war, gold is the only safe ark. Bridgewater’s Dalio warns: America has fallen into “Phase Five”, brink of collapse and civil war. With debt imbalances and political polarization, gold is the only “non-liability” safe haven, he recommends 5%-15% portfolio in gold. Dalio suggests diversity and choosing stable residency to counter fiat depreciation and coming cycle of turmoil.

China's AI war: “Hundred Model War” is over, biggest profit pool belongs to big firms—how will Zhipu and MiniMax break through? China's AI “Hundred Model War” is ending, real players have shrunk to 10. The harshest conclusion: the biggest profit pool goes to controlling distributors like Tencent, Alibaba, not model companies. Among independents, Zhipu keeps 59% gross margin with local deployment, MiniMax breaks through with 73% overseas revenue and full-modal products. As models become non-scarce, monetization is key.

Spring Festival AI war is just a surface? JPMorgan: token consumption will grow rapidly, may surge 370x in five years! JPMorgan says behind Spring Festival AI promotions, user habits are shifting to chatbots, pushing token use into long-term rapid growth. Predicts China's token consumption CAGR will reach 330%. Investment focus should be on “second-order winners”: AI infrastructure and ad-related firms.

Anthropic's latest 2026 trend report: the biggest programming revolution ever is unstoppable. Anthropic points out programming is undergoing the greatest shift in history: from “writing code” to “directing agents”. AI now autonomously completes long, complex tasks, even non-tech users can build apps directly. This means development barriers collapse, processes rebuilt, developer roles upgrade to architect and agent orchestrator. Enterprises must master agent coordination and safety embedding to meet the ‘anyone-can-develop’ new era.

Domestic Macro

MIIT and four other departments: strengthen integration innovation and equipment R&D for low-altitude equipment and information communication. Actively promote 5G-A industry development, upgrade and improve ground base station functions, accelerate maturity of sensing-fusion tech, gradually lower equipment costs. Strengthen innovative integration and R&D for low-altitude equipment and information communication, promote 5G/5G RedCap modules and validation with low-altitude aircraft. Explore fusion module R&D combining communication/navigation/monitoring for low-altitude, and accelerate tech and industry maturity.

Domestic Companies

EU Commission accepts Volkswagen's China-produced EV price commitment. On Feb 10, EU Commission announced it accepted VW's price commitment for pure-EV imports. VW Anhui can export CUPRA Tavascan models to Europe at or above the minimum price proposed, exempt from countervailing duties on China-imported EVs.

Ge Weidong and Fang Wenyan team up, each invests 1 billion yuan in JAC Motors’ private placement. Famous investor Ge Weidong and Fang Wenyan, wife of star investor Zhang Jianping, both invested 1 billion each in Jac private placement, each getting 20,048,100 shares. The placement is about 24% above bottom price, showing strong institutional enthusiasm. The couple had exited JAC’s top 10 shareholders, but Fang Wenyan’s return signals renewed optimism. Ge Weidong meanwhile continues long-term layout via affiliates, joining top traders, show commitment to JAC.

Overseas Macro

Federal Reserve: US consumer debt default rate surges to highest in nearly a decade. New York Fed report shows in Q4 last year, overdue ratio for US household debts rose to 4.8%, highest since 2017, mainly driven by low-income groups and young borrowers. Defaults mainly driven by mortgage delinquency.

End “buy the dip”! Walsh’s nomination means Fed bailout threshold is greatly raised? Citadel Securities thinks Walsh’s nomination means Fed bailout threshold will rise greatly. He wants strict limits on Fed balance sheet expansion, only liquidity support as crisis exception, undermining the long-relied “Fed put”. Dangerous signal for leveraged, US Treasury supply-heavy markets used to “buying the dip”.

European Parliament votes to support digital euro with online and offline functions. Parliament voted to launch both online and offline versions of digital euro, rejecting prior offline-only proposal, in line with ECB stance. Aims to lessen dependence on Visa etc., safeguard EU currency sovereignty, pilot in 2027, formal launch in 2029. Parliament stresses that digitalization led by non-EU entities poses sovereignty risks. Project still awaits final EU legal framework approval.

Overseas Companies

“Gas turbine giant” GE Vernova seizes AI power bottleneck, stock hits record high, up over 500% since early 2024. AI data centers boost power demand, GE Vernova's gas turbine capacity in crisis, triggers “rush ordering”. Clients must pay non-refundable deposits for 2030 delivery, “occupy slots, negotiate later” shows sellers’ dominance. Stock soared over 500% since split, Wall Street doubled 2030 profit forecasts to $17 billion, energy equipment giant enters rare boom cycle.

McKinsey's $20 billion business changes hands, Neuberger Berman takes over MIO alternative investment. This marks Neuberger’s big expansion and ends a year of MIO strategy review at McKinsey. The deal excludes MIO’s $6 billion passive index investment. MIO manages wealth for McKinsey partners, previously scrutinized for potential conflicts with consulting. Neuberger says it may open MIO’s core strategy to new clients in future.

Paramount still not giving up, improves hostile bid, promises to pay Warner $2.8 billion breakup fee. Paramount improved its hostile take-over bid for Warner Bros, promising to cover $2.8 billion Netflix break fee, $1.5 billion debt refinancing guarantee, and set a $0.25/share quarterly “delay fee”. The base offer stays at $30/share, analysts say unless raised above $32, hard to win Warner board approval.

Kering Group surges 14% in European stocks, Gucci sales better than expected, company hopes for recovery in 2026. Gucci parent Kering’s Q4 sales decline narrowed to 3%, beating expectations, triggering a 14% stock jump, biggest in three years. Though new CEO steadied performance, Gucci’s continuous ten-quarter decline, margin cut in half and worsened cash flow are challenges. Recovery may not come until 2026.

BodyArmor impairment drags Coca-Cola Q4 GAAP operating profit down 32% YoY, full-year guidance below expectations. Impacted by $960 million non-cash impairment on its acquired sports drink BodyArmor, Coca-Cola’s Q4 GAAP operating profit fell 32% YoY. Coca-Cola forecasts 2026 organic sales growth at 4-5%, with the lower end below Wall Street average of 5.01%. After years of price-driven growth, consumers are more price-sensitive, investors worry the growth engine is slowing.

Industry/Concepts

1. Low-altitude Economy | MIIT and five departments issued “Opinions on Strengthening Information Communications Capability to Support Low-altitude Infrastructure”, proposing, based on existing mobile communication facilities, integrating ground mobile, satellite communications, and other tech to support low-altitude applications. By 2027, national coverage of low-altitude public air route ground mobile communication network to reach at least 90%, multi-integrated sensing scheme further improved, navigation service level enhanced, no fewer than 10 information infrastructure standards developed, forming typical low-altitude application scenarios for city governance, logistics, culture and tourism.

Comment: Analysts say the policy will provide key “neural network” for low-altitude economy, create integrated space-ground communication infrastructure, giving crucial support. The policy brings new markets for communication equipment, module suppliers, and creates scenarios for new tech like sensing-fusion, opening new growth for the industry. It also addresses communication and monitoring for low-altitude aircraft, solidifying technical basis, speeding up scale application. This policy will create a new industry chain linking “equipment suppliers-module makers-aircraft manufacturers-application service providers”, promoting deep integration of communications and aviation.

2. HBM | Sina Finance reports, Samsung Electronics will start bulk supply of HBM4 high-bandwidth memory chips to Nvidia after the Lunar New Year. This marks the first mass production and delivery of HBM4 chips globally. Industry confirmed, Samsung completed all HBM4 certifications, delivery pace aligns closely with Nvidia’s new AI accelerator development and release cycle.

Comment: Analysts believe the new wave of AI hardware upgrades not only drives demand for advanced chips, but deeply reshapes supply-demand for the memory sector. HBM is a storage revolution. AI boom makes HBM a hot commodity. 2026 is seen as "HBM super cycle" year, global HBM3E/HBM4 capacity pre-booked by Nvidia, AMD, cloud vendors through Q1 2027, supply gap 50%-60%. Data shows HBM market will grow 42% yearly, from $4 billion in 2023 to $130 billion in 2033. By 2033, HBM will make up more than half the DRAM market.

3. Medical Devices | Xinhua reports, China International Medical Device & Equipment Trading (procurement) platform launched in Tianjin, promoting “global buying and selling”.

Comment: Platform offers online display, procurement info and policy info, market data analysis, will innovate cross-border procurement modes, rules, standards, promote international cooperation, organize domestic and foreign exchange events to lower trade costs, help Chinese devices go global and deepen cross-border industry ties. First batch of deals and procurement intents signed by domestic and foreign firms on launch day, covering orthopedic robot, dental implant, color Doppler ultrasound, etc.

Today's Key News Preview

China January CPI, PPI.

SMIC Q4 2025 earnings briefing.

Lead Intelligent Hong Kong IPO, shares expected to trade Feb 11.

OPEC releases monthly oil market report.

US EIA weekly crude inventory change.

US January nonfarm payrolls report.

US January government budget.

Chairman of Joint Chiefs to hold "rare" meeting, military leaders from 34 countries summoned.

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market is risky, investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider an individual user's particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether the opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their circumstances. Any investment based on this is at your own risk. ```