Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 21, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

US fourth-quarter GDP missed expectations, December core PCE inflation was higher than expected, US stocks opened lower, then the US Supreme Court ruled Trump’s tariffs illegal, stocks surged during trading, and after significant volatility, all major indices closed higher.

S&P 500 up 0.7%. The Nasdaq led gains, Google rose over 4%, Oracle fell over 5%, Coreweave dropped more than 8%. Anthropic released Claude safety tools, cybersecurity stocks plunged. The “Trump Tariffs Losers Index” rose over 1.3%.

Tariff revenue expectations fell short, US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar weakened. 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.5bps, 2-year up 2bps. The dollar dipped 0.06% but gained nearly 1% for the week. Digital currencies rebounded strongly from Friday’s morning lows.

Iran geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation pushed gold up over 2%, returning to $5,100. Spot silver surged 8%. Crude oil hit a six-month high but retreated and closed slightly lower.

In Asia, on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2%, but large language models and storage stocks surged against the trend, Zhipu up nearly 43%, and robotics stocks exploded.

Top News

Trump's global tariffs overturned, the US Supreme Court rules them illegal, over $175 billion in taxes face refunds. Trump used backup tools to impose a 10% global tariff, saying tariffs would be “much higher” than before, and implying that illegally collected tariffs would not be refunded. The US Treasury Secretary says tariff revenue will “remain basically unchanged” this year.

Trump confirmed he’s considering “limited military strikes” against Iran; Iranian Foreign Minister says a draft agreement with the US will be finalized within three days.

US Q4 GDP grew just 1.4%, government shutdown dragged it down by 1 percentage point. Fed’s preferred inflation indicator was higher than expected, with December core PCE price index up 3% y/y. US February S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI missed expectations, hitting multi-month lows.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI hit a three-and-a-half-year high, led by a rebound in Germany, while France is still hovering below the expansion line.

Japanese Prime Minister’s policy speech: break “over-tight fiscal policy”, suspend food consumption tax, increase investment in AI and other industries.

The “Google team” fights back against AI bubble doubts: This is an industrial revolution, but 10 times faster and 10 times larger.

Anthropic released Claude safety tools, cybersecurity stocks plunged.

Market Closing Report

US and European stocks: S&P 500 rose 0.69% to 6909.51 points, up 1.07% for the week. Dow up 0.47% to 49625.97 points, up 0.25% for the week. Nasdaq up 0.90% to 22886.069 points, up 1.51% for the week. Europe’s STOXX 600 Index up 0.84% to 630.56 points.

Bonds: US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield up 1.53 bps to 4.0826%, up 3.43 bps for the week. 2-year yield up 2.07 bps to 3.4781%, up 7.04 bps for the week.

Commodities: Spot gold up 2.15% to $5104.90/oz, up 1.27% for the week. Spot silver up 7.81% to $84.6396/oz, up 9.31% for the week. WTI March crude futures down 0.06% to $66.39/bbl. Brent April crude futures up 0.14% to $71.76/bbl.

Details of Top News

Global Highlights

Trump’s global tariffs overturned, US Supreme Court rules them illegal, over $175 billion face refunds. The Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval. The ruling affects reciprocal tariffs; steel, aluminum, and automobile tariffs are unaffected. Trump called the ruling “shameful” and said he’s prepared alternative plans. The ruling did not mention whether tariffs should be refunded. Economists estimate over $175 billion have been collected; refunding them could halve tariff rates. After the ruling, US stocks hit intraday highs, the dollar and Treasuries hit intraday lows, and gold and silver extended gains.

After the Supreme Court ruling, Trump uses backup tools to impose a 10% global tariff, saying tariffs will be “much higher”, implying illegally collected tariffs would not be refunded. Trump said the law he’s using is “more powerful” than IEEPA, which was overturned; he will invoke Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for a 10% global tariff, expecting it to take effect in “about three days.” All tariffs under Section 301 and Section 232 of the same law, including so-called “national security tariffs,” will remain in place; no Congressional authorization is needed, and if more authority is needed, he’s confident it will be granted. Trump is the first president to use Section 122 for tariffs.

Trump implies illegally collected tariffs will not be refunded, US Treasury Secretary says tariff revenue will “remain basically unchanged” this year. The Supreme Court left the refund issue to lower courts. Trump said the Supreme Court ruling is flawed for not mentioning whether to keep previous tariff revenue, and litigation will continue for two to five years. Besant said combining Section 122 of the Trade Act with strengthened Section 301 and 232 will keep tariff revenue nearly unchanged; government tariff revenue is closer to $130 billion, not $175 billion suggested by research models; tariffs will return to earlier levels, just in a more complex way.

The Supreme Court ruling did not “crush” tariffs; Trump still has many tools to use. Compared to IEEPA overturned by the Supreme Court, Trump’s most relied-on alternatives such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, and the highly controversial Section 338 from the 1930s, all carry more restrictions than IEEPA.

Too soon to celebrate the Supreme Court overturning Trump’s tariffs? Wall Street predicts market reaction could be short-lived. One reason volatility in US stocks, bonds, and currency was modest is that markets had already expected this outcome and Trump immediately stated he had backup plans. Compared to the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, recent concerns in AI, software stock sell-offs, and Middle East tensions may attract more investor attention. Although Trump has at least five alternative legal tools to reimpose tariffs, any method would push up long-term US Treasury yields.

Trump confirms consideration of “limited military strikes” on Iran, Iran foreign minister: draft agreement with US to be sealed in three days. According to CCTV News, Trump stated he is considering a “preliminary limited military strike” on Iran to force it to accept US demands on the nuclear deal. The Iran foreign minister stated there is no military solution to Iran’s peaceful nuclear plan, diplomacy is the only way, and a draft agreement with the US will be finalized within three days. Israel military spokesperson said the IDF is at high alert. As of market close on Friday, oil prices barely fluctuated from Thursday.

US Q4 GDP grew just 1.4%, shutdown dragged it down by 1 percentage point, Trump preemptively “fired” at Powell. US 2025 Q4 real GDP initial value grew an annualized 1.4%, well below the expected 2.8% and sharply down from the previous 4.4%. The shutdown dragged GDP by about 1 percentage point, federal spending fell an annualized 16.6%. Despite the economy growing 2.2% for the full year, retreating consumption and exports, labor market concerns, and stubborn inflation make the outlook more complex. Before the data was released, Trump had already criticized the shutdown and pressured for rate cuts, attracting market attention.

Fed’s favorite inflation indicator exceeded expectations! US December core PCE price index rose 3% y/y. The Fed's preferred PCE inflation was higher than expected: the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) rose 0.4% in December, the biggest increase in nearly a year; core PCE was up 3% y/y vs 2.8% at the start of 2025.

US February S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI missed expectations, hit multi-month lows. Initial February Manufacturing PMI at 51.2, vs 52.4 previous in January, a 7-month low. Services PMI initial 52.3, vs 52.7 January, a 10-month low. Composite PMI initial at 52.3, vs 53 in January, the lowest since April 2025, weaker than Britain and Japan.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at three-and-a-half-year high, Germany rebounds, France still below expansion line. Eurozone activity accelerated, but firms cut staff for the second straight month, German employment fell, France steady, employment in other eurozone regions rose. HCOB chief analyst says with activity expanding and services inflation still high, the ECB will likely keep key policy rates unchanged.

Japan Prime Minister's policy speech: break “over-tight fiscal policy”, suspend food consumption tax, increase investment in AI and other sectors. Takashi Sanei pushes “active fiscal” to break austerity, reaffirms suspension of food consumption tax for two years, and will boost investment in AI and chips with a multi-year budget plan. He also vows to strictly control debt growth, pledge specific measures to gauge fiscal reform, and ensure debt growth stays below economic growth rates.

Will Japan’s overseas capital “flow back massively”? January Japanese bonds saw large net inflows, but Goldman warns not to misread this as a “return tide”. Retail demand for overseas stocks remains strong, institutions are constrained by the stubborn US-Japan rate differential, signs of capital returning are weak. Goldman says if the macro environment stays risk-on, rate differences steady, and fiscal expansion continues, yen depreciation pressure will persist.

“Google team” counters AI bubble doubts: This is an industrial revolution, but 10 times faster, 10 times bigger. Google CEO at India’s AI summit revealed Google Cloud backlog doubled to $240 billion, proving the rationale for high capex. DeepMind CEO predicts AGI is still 5–10 years away. Google executives agree AI will fundamentally change SME and research workflows; India is turning from a market into a “full-stack builder” in AI.

Anthropic launched Claude safety tools, cybersecurity stocks plunged. Claude AI’s new tool scans codebases for security vulnerabilities and offers targeted patch suggestions for human review. Currently this tool is in limited research preview. The news triggered a group selloff in cybersecurity stocks, Global X Cybersecurity ETF dropped 4.9%, the lowest since November 2023. SailPoint fell 9.4%, Okta down 9.18%, Cloudflare plunged 8%.

Research Report Picks

Understanding global markets from 2026 to now: What’s rising? Why US stocks are lagging? Will this trend continue? Goldman’s report reveals new directions for 2026 markets: cyclical assets still have room to rise; but AI and other hot themes are overvalued, high volatility will be common; dollar will stay weak; be wary of high-valuation sectors, diversify equity holdings, keep healthy non-US exposure (including emerging markets), and take long positions in index volatility.

LPDDR6 era is coming! AI demand is so strong, next-gen DRAM will enter the market faster than expected. LPDDR6 performance is 1.5 times higher than previous generation, will be commercially available as early as the second half, Nvidia, Samsung, and Qualcomm are actively involved. Most HPC semiconductor designers are planning to use LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 IP in parallel, especially in advanced chips below 4nm, with demand arriving faster than expected.

Domestic Companies

Hong Kong tech stocks diverge: “AI newcomers” favored, “monetization concerns” drag internet giants. On the first trading day, capital rotated strongly! AI newcomers like Zhipu and MiniMax surged, funds flowed out from giants like Alibaba and Tencent. Domestic AI companies are accelerating the rollout of model updates, holidays and Spring Festival performances increased focus on AI, pulling capital to pure AI targets at the start of trading. Though major platforms had strong Spring Festival data and active users soared on Qianwen, Yuanbao, etc., huge subsidies are drawing regulatory attention, raising sensitivity to cost ratio and profitability sustainability.

Overseas Macro

US Treasury makes concessions, plans to revise sovereign wealth fund tax proposal after warnings from private equity. The US Treasury is making concessions on a comprehensive tax reform for sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds. The proposal, initially from the IRS, would update Section 892 and treat most US debt investments by these funds as business activity, risking taxation. Private credit and private equity warned the changes may negatively affect foreign investment in US markets.

Overseas Companies

Dalio family office heavy on gold, reveals US stock holdings after quitting Bridgewater, up to $500 million. Dalio’s family office has disclosed US stock investments for the first time since the pandemic. By the end of last year, it held about $503 million in US stocks, up a third since early 2021. More than three quarters is in gold ETFs; the rest is spread across Treasuries and S&P 500 index assets. Analysts say this move shows Dalio is focusing on family office investments after leaving Bridgewater.

Google releases Gemini 3.1 Pro, core reasoning performance doubles. Google’s major model base gets a big upgrade! Gemini 3.1 Pro officially launches, reasoning performance doubles, logical test scores rocket to 77.1%, coding ability rivals Opus 4.6. The new model focuses on multi-source data integration and complex task decomposition. Preview released immediately, Google AI ecosystem speeds up again.

OpenAI plans AI speakers, glasses, and smart lamp, earliest release in 2027. Reports say OpenAI is forming a 200+ person team to develop AI hardware products including a smart speaker, smart glasses, and smart desktop lamp. The first product, a smart speaker with camera, is expected to sell for $200-300, earliest delivery in 2027, with environment and face recognition payment features. Smart glasses expected to mass produce in 2028.

SpaceX IPO “curve investment”, South Korea Mirae Asset stock soars 200% year-to-date! Korean broker Mirae Asset shares rose more than twofold this year, as investors see it as a rare “shadow stock” for SpaceX IPO (valued at $1.25 trillion)—the company has invested over $400 million in SpaceX and xAI. Despite strong business, valuation is now three times its five-year average, caution on pullback risk is needed.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ specific investment goals, financial status, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion in this article suits their particular situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```