Wall Street is collectively bullish on copper! Jefferies has given the most aggressive forecast of $17,636 and bluntly stated, "We are not bullish enough on copper."

Wall Street is collectively bullish on copper! Jefferies has given the most aggressive forecast of $17,636 and bluntly stated, "We are not bullish enough on copper."

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Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina recently wrote in a client report: "It turns out we were not bullish enough on copper." He immediately raised his copper price target for 2030 to $8 per pound, equivalent to $17,636 per ton—this is currently the highest known copper price forecast on Wall Street.

For reference, the latest COMEX copper quote is about $6.34 per pound, and LME copper is about $13,583 per ton. In other words, LaFemina's 2030 target price is about 30% higher than the current price.

Before joining Jefferies, LaFemina worked in metals and mining research at Lehman Brothers and Barclays for over ten years, making him one of the most seasoned metals analysts on Wall Street. He stated directly in the report: "We currently have the highest copper price forecast on Wall Street because we see strong industrial demand in the U.S. and continued tight supply."

AI Spending Boom: Copper Is the Most Direct Beneficiary

LaFemina's core logic is not complicated: the large-scale construction of AI data centers, and what he calls the “powering up America” theme—i.e., grid and infrastructure upgrades—will drive a substantive acceleration in copper demand.

Goldman Sachs previously estimated that this year, AI capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud providers will surge to $800 billion. These investments ultimately translate into physical infrastructure, and copper is an irreplaceable core material for power transmission.

LaFemina’s judgment is: before copper and aluminum prices truly drag down the macro economy, there is still considerable room for an upside.

On the Supply Side: Two Main Mines Falter Simultaneously

Demand is one side; supply is the other. The Goldman Sachs team led by analyst Aurelia Waltham pointed out that copper mine supply recovery this year is significantly below expectations.

The institution lowered its global copper mine supply forecast for 2026 by 350,000 tons, about 1.5% of global mine supply. Of this, Indonesia’s Grasberg mine and Congo (DRC)'s Kamoa-Kakula mine together reduced output by about 200,000 tons. Both mines are expected to return to full production only by 2028.

Meanwhile, U.S. copper imports in the first half of 2026 exceeded expectations, further tightening the supply-demand balance outside the U.S. Goldman Sachs expects U.S. copper inventories in 2026 to accumulate to 900,000 tons (previous forecast was 550,000 tons)—behind this is the pre-tariff stockpiling by companies.

Therefore, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 year-end and 2027 average LME copper price forecasts to $13,735 and $13,800, respectively, significantly higher than the previous forecasts of $12,465 and $12,150.

Goldman's Three Scenarios: Price Range from $12,600 to $14,000+

The bank also provided three price scenarios, covering the main uncertainties in the current market:

Scenario One: Persistent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Demand decline and supply reduction due to sulfur shortages roughly offset each other, but a sharp contraction of global risk appetite may push LME copper prices down to the fundamental support level of about $12,600, before rebounding again.

Scenario Two: U.S. announces copper tariffs (effective January 2027). If tariffs are announced in June 2026 and take effect in January 2027, companies will accelerate imports in the second half, pushing copper prices above $14,000. But once the tariffs officially take effect and imports stop, 2027 prices will fall back.

Scenario Three: Explicit announcement that no copper tariffs will be imposed. Import demand fades, markets outside the U.S. return to supply surplus, and the average copper price in 2027 may drop to $12,800.

Wall Street’s Direction Is Basically Unified

In addition to Jefferies and Goldman Sachs, HSBC told clients last week: "Overall metal prices are in an upward cycle, and some commodities are driven by supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand." The bank also warned of a "super squeeze" risk for commodities.

JPMorgan analysts also told clients that copper’s upward cycle is jointly driven by tight supply, accelerating grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification.

From Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC to JPMorgan, the main metal research teams on Wall Street are aligning in their judgments: copper is entering a new stage of structurally tight supply, and the upside for LME copper prices may be about to open up.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investment needs to be prudent. This article does not constitute personalized investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinion, view, or conclusion in this article fits their particular situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```