Wall Street is extremely divided over the historic SpaceX IPO! Target price: $60–$190

```SpaceX completed one of the largest IPOs in U.S. history, but this milestone event triggered an unusually extreme split on Wall Street—from a target price of $190 to “fair value” being only half of the IPO price. The valuation gap between analysts reflects a fundamental dispute in the market over the commercial logic of this space company.

Bullish Side: Optimistic on “Space + AI” Vision and Monopoly Status

Oppenheimer: Offers a positive outlook, setting a target price of $190. They believe SpaceX has the capability for technological breakthroughs, and break down their valuation logic as: “Starlink provides cash flow anchor, Starship acts as a cost lever, and space AI data centers are long-term call options.”

New Street Research: Holds a similarly positive stance, giving a target price of $165.

Goldman Sachs recently stated: It is extremely optimistic about the long-term growth of SpaceX's AI business, predicting total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030, with AI-related revenue hitting $322 billion.

Suro Capital venture investor Evan Schlossman: Believes the opening surge proves there is strong demand for innovative flagship companies. After being private for a long time, these companies have accumulated tremendous market expectation.

Seth Hickle, CIO of Mindset Wealth Management: Points out that demand far exceeds supply and that many investors see investing in SpaceX as “the closest thing to investing in railroads during the Industrial Revolution,” and they are willing to pay the “Musk premium.”

Bearish Side: Questioning Overvalued Pricing and Financial Losses

CFRA: Issued the first mainstream “sell” rating on IPO day, with a target price of just $115 (about a 14.8% discount to the issue price). The core reasons are seriously overstretched valuation, and that Starlink’s profits are devoured by xAI and Starship—the two “cash burners”—and that the AI business lacks differentiated competitiveness.

Morningstar: Analyst Nicolas Owens, through a discounted cash flow model, estimates SpaceX’s fair value at only $780 billion, or $60 per share, less than half the IPO price. He believes the xAI business could become a “value destroyer” and that the probability of success for the space AI data centers is only 7%.

NYU “valuation guru” Aswath Damodaran: Bluntly said the real valuation should be around $1.3 trillion (about $99 per share), considering the current pricing too high.

Veteran short seller Jim Chanos: commented mercilessly, “No reasonable business assumption can get this company to be worth $1.75 trillion in five years—that relies on ‘hope and dreams.’”

Todd Schoenberger, CIO of Crosscheck Management: Thinks current retail investor enthusiasm is absurdly high, but people are actually “trading,” not “investing” in SpaceX, trying to profit from headlines, leaving the outlook in a few weeks uncertain.

Warnings on Deal Structure and Market Risks

J.P. Morgan: Warns that SpaceX’s listing will create a significant “siphon effect.” Due to passive funds facing forced rebalancing, the market may have to pull about $950 billion in liquidity from existing tech giants to match SpaceX’s weighting, possibly causing dramatic shifts in the three major U.S. stock indices.

Capital Economics’ market economist Joe Maher: Points out that giant IPOs like SpaceX will unleash a wave of equity supply. Soaring stock issuance is not only a mark of speculative frenzy but may overwhelm investor demand, depressing overall stock prices.

Shivaram Rajgopal, Professor at Columbia Business School: Labels 2026 as the “Year of Mega-IPOs,” and warns this may signal that the bubble fueled by low interest rates and unrealistic AI expectations since the financial crisis has peaked.

The Motley Fool: Criticizes the IPO’s deal structure as “one of the biggest heists of retail investors in history.” Points out that an extremely low free float and index rule changes are designed to let insiders cash out post-lockup in August, leaving retail investors to shoulder the losses from the inflated valuation.

Concerns Over Corporate Governance

Danish pension fund AkademikerPension: Put SpaceX on its investment blacklist directly due to governance structure issues. Its CIO states that SpaceX’s equity structure is “the most management-favoring and extreme ever in the history of U.S. public markets,” with Musk holding absolute voting power and lacking an independent board mechanism.

Senator Elizabeth Warren: Publicly criticized the SEC under the Trump administration for approving a “meaningless” IPO, called on index providers to protect American households’ investments, and demanded that the SEC ensure Musk cannot deceive investors.

Risk Notice and DisclaimerThe market involves risks; investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing on this basis is at your own risk. ```