Wall Street Journal Breakfast FM-Radio | December 20, 2025

Wall Street Journal Breakfast FM-Radio | December 20, 2025

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Tech stocks strongly supported the market, US stocks unfazed continuing to rise on Friday amid the turmoil of a record "Triple Witching Day", with all three major indexes posting two consecutive gains. The Nasdaq rose over 1% in both days, and the S&P narrowly turned positive for the week, while the Dow had its first weekly decline in a month; after the TikTok agreement news, Oracle surged 6.6%, driving up AI and chip stocks, Chip Index up 3%, AMD up over 6%, Nvidia up nearly 4%; Tesla fell against the trend, but rose nearly 5% for the week. After the ECB raised economic forecasts, pan-European indices hit new historical highs for two consecutive days.

After BOJ rate hike, global bond prices dropped together. Yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds broke 2.0% for the first time since 1999; France's budget talks collapsed, with 30-year French bond yields hitting their highest since 2009; US Fed “number three” said not in a rush to cut rates, US Treasury yields rebounded rapidly.

The US Dollar Index rose for the third consecutive time to a weekly high, reversing the weekly downtrend; BOJ's rate hike outlook "cautious", the yen plunged more than 1% intraday to a four-week low, worst in over two months; offshore RMB left its 14-month high, gaining for four straight weeks; cryptocurrency rebounded, Bitcoin once rose nearly 5% intraday, approaching $90,000 again, and Ethereum rose over 7%.

Gold and silver rebounded, silver and copper both hit all-time highs, gold turned up intraday, approaching record high; silver set new highs for the second time this week, silver futures rose nearly 4% intraday, four weeks of gains; London copper closed at a new high after a week, up more than 3% weekly; crude oil rose over 1% intraday, rebound for three days in a row but still falling for two consecutive weeks.

During Asian trading, A-shares and Hong Kong indexes collectively rose, ChiNext Index surged then pulled back to rise 0.49%, controllable nuclear fusion and big consumption led gains, commercial aerospace remained strong, the Hang Seng Tech Index up over 1%, and biopharma stocks soared.

Headlines

State Council Executive Meeting: Must proactively implement and ensure a good start to the "Fifteen Five" plan.

Cyberspace Administration and CSRC took joint action to lawfully handle rumor-mongering and illegal stock recommendation accounts.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to news of ByteDance and TikTok forming a US joint venture with co-investors: China’s position on TikTok is consistent and clear.

Trump works hard to attract voters at year-end: issued a $1,776 "Warrior Bonus" to the military, added two extra Christmas holidays for federal employees, relaxed marijuana regulations, restarted the lunar landing program, nine major pharmaceutical firms reached price cuts for three years of tariff exemptions.

Waller reportedly performed "outstandingly" in Fed Chair interview, Trump may shift focus to employment market.

Fed “number three” Williams: no urgency for further rate cuts, November CPI data distorted to some extent; US Treasury yields rebounded rapidly.

US Justice Department: "Hundreds of thousands" Epstein case files to be released, full disclosure will take weeks.

Bank of Japan voted 9:0, rate hike by 25 basis points as expected, with further rate hikes if economic and price outlooks are achieved. Kazuo Ueda: pace of easing adjustment depends on future data, but if action is too late, a rapid large-scale rate hike may be forced in the future. Ueda emphasized "cautious" future moves, yen fell over 1% intraday, traders bet next rate hike may wait until September next year.

Reports say OpenAI latest fundraising up to $100 billion, valuation could reach $830 billion, completing as soon as Q1 next year; Softbank has committed $30 billion, Disney and Emirati capital also participating.

ByteDanceprofit this year reportedly likely to reach $50 billion, a record. Reports: ByteDance is pushing cooperation with various vendors on AI cell phones.

Market Close

European and US Stock Markets: S&P 500 up 0.88% to 6,834.50, up 0.1% for the week; Dow up 0.38% to 48,134.89, down 0.67% for the week; Nasdaq up 1.31% to 23,307.62, weekly gain 0.48%. Europe's STOXX 600 index up 0.37% to 587.50, up 1.6% for the week.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 0.36% to 3,890.45; Shenzhen Component up 0.66% to 13,140.21; ChiNext Index up 0.49% to 3,122.24.

Bond Market: By bond market close, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield around 4.15%, up about 3 basis points for the day, down about 3 basis points for the week; 2-year US Treasury yield at about 3.48%, up about 2 basis points for the day, down about 4 basis points for the week.

Commodities: WTI January crude oil futures up 0.91% to $56.66/barrel, down about 1.4% for the week; Brent February crude futures up 1.09% to $60.47/barrel, down about 1.1% for the week. COMEX February gold futures up 0.52% to $4,387.3/oz, up about 1.4% for the week. COMEX March silver futures up 3.48% to $67.489/oz, up about 8.8% for the week. LME copper up about 0.9% to $11,882/ton, up about 3.2% for the week. LME tin up about 0.7% to $43,227/ton, up about 4.6% for the week.

Details of Headlines

Global Heavyweights

State Council Executive Meeting: must proactively implement and ensure a good start to the "Fifteen Five" plan. The meeting emphasized that all departments must unify thinking and action with the scientific judgment and decision-making of the Party Central Committee, fully implementing the general requirements and policy orientation for next year's economic work, enhancing the sense of responsibility and urgency, carefully benchmarking and identifying tasks, and accelerating the development and implementation of proposals to ensure effectiveness.

Cyberspace Administration and CSRC took joint action to lawfully deal with rumor-mongering and illegal stock-tipping accounts. Regulators pointed out the capital market's high sensitivity to information, with fabrications and dissemination of false information or other illegal remarks disturbing order and affecting market stability, subject to legal punishment. Both departments urged netizens to keep proper investment concepts and risk awareness, strengthen financial info discrimination, not to create, spread or believe rumors, and together maintain a clean cyberspace.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China’s stance on TikTok is consistent and clear. According to Global Times, foreign media reported that on Thursday, TikTok's CEO sent an internal letter that ByteDance and TikTok have signed agreements with three investors and will establish a new TikTok US joint venture named "TikTok US Data Security Joint Venture LLC." Foreign Ministry spokesperson answered foreign media questions on China's approval of the deal and comments.

24-hour "lightning gift pack": Trump works hard to attract voters at year-end, covering military, civil servants, marijuana, and aerospace. As polls show his approval dropping below 40%, Trump rolled out several benefit policies within about 24 hours: $1,776 "Warrior Bonus" for active-duty military, unprecedented two extra Christmas holidays for federal employees, and signed marijuana deregulation, lunar landing restart orders. Also, the Trump administration reached a drug price discount deal with nine pharmaceutical giants on Friday.

Trump claims “big victory”: nine major pharmaceutical companies agreed to price cuts in exchange for three years of tariff exemption. After Merck, Novartis, GSK and other nine giants signed, Trump said of the 17 targeted this summer, 14 have agreed to "significant" price cuts. The Commerce Secretary hinted the remaining three will announce similar deals after the holiday.

Waller performed "outstandingly" in Fed Chair interviews, Trump may shift focus to the job market. Reports say the Fed Chair selection process continues, with the four-person shortlist: WH economic advisor Hassett, former Fed governor Warsh, current governor Waller, and Blackrock's fixed income CIO Rieder, who will be interviewed last week of the year. Governor Bowman is no longer a candidate.

  • Fed number three Williams: No urgency for further rate cuts, November CPI data distorted. NY Fed President Williams said given jobs and inflation data, there is no urgency for further rate cuts. Previous cuts have set policy in a good spot, Nov CPI distorted by government shutdown, but core inflation is still approaching the 2% goal, labor market is adjusting smoothly. Markets expect a low chance of rate cuts in early next year, with about 50% chance by June.

"Hundreds of thousands" Epstein case files will be public, US Justice Department: full disclosure will take weeks. Democrats accuse this of violating the law. Senate minority leader Schumer said Congress passed and President Trump signed the "Epstein Files Transparency Act," requiring DOJ to release all non-secret files within 30 days, and not fully doing so is illegal.

BOJ voted 9:0 for a 25bp rate hike as scheduled, with further hikes possible if forecasts met. Kazuo Ueda: pace of easing adjustment depends on future data, but if rate hikes too late, may need rapid big hikes. Rate hikes can't rescue the yen, Ueda emphasizes "cautious moves" and next hike may wait until September next year .

  • BOJ says core inflation is still rising moderately, price trends basically match forecasts for the second half. Despite nominal rate hikes, real rates will remain significantly negative, meaning the overall monetary environment is still loose.
  • Governor Ueda emphasized policy adjustments' pace will depend on current meeting's economy, prices, and financial situation. Even with a hike to 0.75%, policy rate is still below neutral range. As long as wages keep rising, core inflation won't drop, and further hikes are possible if wage growth transmits to prices.
  • BOJ completed its biggest rate hike in nearly thirty years, but Ueda stressed future policy will be "prudently advanced," without clear hike path. Market was disappointed and yen fell instead of rising, over 1% drop vs USD intraday. Overnight index swaps show traders pushed next hike expectations to next September. While politics has paved the way for normalization, BOJ’s vague guidance keeps yen bulls cautious before the holiday.
  • Japan's November core CPI remained at 3.0% high, exceeding target for 44 months, solidifying the rate hike path. Nov core inflation up 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding BOJ's 2% target for 44 months, further cementing rate hike expectations. Japan faces growth pressure, but sticky inflation means the country has escaped deflation, prompting the BOJ to balance controlling prices and supporting the economy, key to normalization.

Altman on OpenAI: Compute is the biggest revenue bottleneck; if compute doubles, revenue doubles. Altman said OpenAI is still constrained by compute—not as a cost, but as a hard demand-to-revenue constraint: "If compute doubles, revenue almost doubles." In his view, the true competitive focus has shifted from model parameters to who can lay out a wide enough compute and platform foundation.

ByteDance profits reportedly likely to reach $50 billion, a record this year. Media says ByteDance netted around $40 billion in the first three quarters, beating targets and nearing Meta's profits, with annual revenue likely to rise more than 20%. Previously reported Q1 revenue exceeded $43 billion, surpassing Meta as the world's highest-revenue social media company that quarter, and Q2 saw a further 25% rise.

  • Report: ByteDance is pushing cooperation on AI phones with multiple vendors. ByteDance is working with vivo, Lenovo, Transsion and other vendors to pre-install AIGC plug-ins for AI phones as user entry points. The core strategy is to build new user traffic and monetization avenues, attract partners by waiving development costs and sharing traffic, and initially launch in overseas mid-range models to scale up and compete with internet giants.

Alpha Summit

Morgan Stanley’s Xing Zhiqiang: Enhance consumption, stabilize housing, strengthen social security... For China's economy in 2026, key is "investing in people". Xing said new-productivity industries and overseas expansion alone can’t solve the reality of weak domestic demand, China must stabilize real estate, shift fiscal focus from "investment in things" to "investment in people," consolidate social security and boost consumption to re-energize growth and confidence.

Research Highlights

Goldman Sachs commodities outlook: Central bank buying + Fed rate cuts = bullish gold, forecasting $4,900/oz in 2026; AI triggers "copper and electricity" shortage crisis, local outages and price hikes may slow US AI progress; Glut drives oil & gas prices, crude oil to hit bottom mid-2026

  • Goldman expe cts gold price to surge to $4,900/oz in Dec 2026 based on dual drives: one, structural demand as emerging market central banks keep buying gold against geopolitical risks; two, cyclical tailwinds as Fed rate cuts push ETF flows back and squeeze gold supply.
  • Goldman warns of electricity price risks concentrated in areas full of data centers—72% are in just 1% of US counties. Given structural demand and copper supply constraints, Goldman picks copper for the long-term, reiterating 2035 price target of $15,000/ton.
  • Goldman sees severe oil & gas oversupply in 2026: crude oversupply by 2 million barrels/day, Brent oil down to $56/barrel and bottom out midyear, then rebound in Q4. Global LNG supply to surge >50% from 2025-2030, European gas price to fall about 35% by mid-2027.

Goldman: US stocks may rebound in last two weeks of year, 2026 is "stock-picking year", opportunities shift from AI to cyclicals. Goldman says US stocks enter a strong seasonal window at year-end, with prospects for a rebound. Looking to 2026, as economic growth speeds up, stocks will move beyond "Magnificent Seven" dominance and stock correlations will hit record lows, creating a deeply split "stock-picking year," with core opportunities moving from AI to cyclicals like industry, materials, and consumer discretionary.

Morgan Stanley’s Robotics Annual: AI will be the core key to unlocking drone autonomy. Morgan Stanley says AI algorithms drive drone autonomy, moving drones from “tools” to “agents.” AI reduces costs from $30 million to $500. Global drone count will rise from 130 million in 2030 to 2 billion in 2050. The low-altitude economy will shift from "point applications" to "ecological collaboration," turning idle 3D space into new economic growth.

Domestic Macro

Market Regulators clarify vertical monopoly exemption standards: market share below 5%-15% can be exempted. Regulators revised anti-monopoly regulations, clarifying exemption standards for vertical monopoly agreements, effective Feb 1, 2026. New rules: resale price fixing agreements need market share below 5% and turnover below 100 million yuan for exemption; other vertical agreements below 15% share qualify for exemption.

Continued buying! Private equity stock positions hit new yearly high, "fully invested" share tops 70% for first time. According to The Paper, private equity funds keep increasing exposure to A-shares, stock position index hits a yearly high of 83.59%. Over 70% of private equities are "fully invested" (>80% position), exceeding the 70% mark for the first time this year. Shows confidence in A-shares' long-term trends, especially for top funds taking the lead.

Domestic Companies / Sectors

He Xiaopeng: Smart car companies making robots is inevitable, both are AI explorations and share the same tech roots. He says smart car firms entering robotics is inevitable. Cars and robots share core tech in chips, algorithms, manufacturing, creating a built-in advantage. Data from the physical world far exceeds digital, robots provide vast AI training sets as AI's next explosive point. Future agents will cooperate by "ant colony effect", car firms will build "all things become agents" ecosystems.

Over $300 million raised, $3 billion+ valuation! "Peking University-backed" humanoid robot firm Galaxy Universal sets new record for embodied AI single-round financing. The Peking University-based startup finished $300M+ round, a record for embodied AI, valued at about $3B post-investment. China Mobile led, with more industry and global funds joining. The company bets on end-to-end embodied LLMs, already deployed in industry and business scenarios with thousand-unit orders. After finishing share reform, prepping for Hong Kong IPO, as soon as early next year.

Overseas Macro

US November existing-home sales below expectations, prices set historical record for November, inventory down. US existing-home sales up 0.5% MoM in Nov (forecast +1.2%), prior +1.2%. YoY, November sales fell by 1%. After months of supply increase, inventory fell in November. Median home sale price in November was $409,200, up 1.2% YoY—a record for November. Investors increased buying, taking 18% of trades, much higher than November 2024's 13%.

French budget talks broke down, French bonds hit by a sell-off, 30-year yields at a 16-year high. French sovereign bonds faced major selling, 30-year yield jumped to 4.525%, highest since 2009; 10-year yield up to 3.614%, 9-month high. Direct reason: 2026 budget talks collapsed. PM confirmed unable to push budget through before year-end, so €6.5B defense spending and new plans can’t be implemented.

4.5 hours and 80+ questions: what Putin said at his annual summary. Xinhua reports, on ending Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin said at his meeting with US President Trump in Alaska, he basically agreed with Trump's proposal, so Moscow did not refuse any offer. On Russia-China relations, Putin said Russia is willing to continue developing relations with China in the future.

"Seizing Russian assets plan" fell through, EU agrees €90B loan to Ukraine. The EU approved €90B aid to Ukraine for 2026-27 via joint bond issuance. With US support cut and Ukraine facing a funding crisis next year, EU ditched frozen Russian asset plan, instead using budget-backed loans with exemptions for some members. The aid is seen as a lifeline for Kyiv and a lever in peace talks.

Overseas Companies

Competing with OpenAI's "Stargate"? Japan Toyama plans 3.1GW super data center cluster. Toyama, Japan plans to build 3.1GW super data center cluster with private firms, first phase 400MW by 2028, serving Amazon, Microsoft, etc. Institutions predict Japan’s data center market will double in 5 years to over ¥5T ($32B) by 2028 driven by cloud and AI services.

Google Cloud deepens collaboration with Palo Alto Networks, signs nearly $10B AI security mega-deal. Google Cloud and network security firm Palo Alto Networks signed a near $10B multiyear deal, Google’s largest security order yet. They’ll focus on AI-driven security to face new GenAI threats. This pushes Google Cloud’s edge over AWS and MSFT in AI cloud, while giving Palo Alto key support in the fast-growing AI security market.

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