Wall Street Journal Breakfast FM-Radio | March 27, 2026
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Market Overview
The US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have stalled, risk aversion has reignited, crude oil soared over 4% at one point, US stocks, US bonds, gold, and Bitcoin plummeted. After US market hours, Trump said he would delay strikes on Iranian energy facilities by ten days, oil prices plunged sharply but then rebounded; US stock futures spiked instantly but gains soon narrowed.
At Wednesday's close, S&P 500 fell over 1.7%, chip stocks plunged nearly 5%, dragging the Nasdaq down over 2%. Storage stocks continued yesterday’s slump, with SanDisk plummeting 11%. Meta tumbled more than 8%, having been held liable in a social media addiction lawsuit the previous day.
7-year US Treasury auction was bleak. US Treasury yields all surged, 2-year up over 10 basis points, 7-year up by 9.6 basis points.
The dollar rose 0.35% at one point, but plunged at New York's close, returning to near yesterday's close. Bitcoin dropped more than 4%, falling below $69,000. Ethereum dropped nearly 6%.
After US market hours, WTI crude futures plunged from $94.39 to $89.51, hitting a daily low. Brent crude futures plunged from $107.58 to near $103, sharply narrowing intraday gains. Spot gold short-term rose from near $4350 to $4415.65, narrowing daily loss to 2.3%; spot silver rebounded from near $67 to $69, still down over 3% on the day.
During Asian hours, AH shares collectively fell after lunch! The Shanghai index lost 3900 points again, lithium battery chain erupted, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped over 3%, Kuaishou plunged over 14%, Shanghai gold fell below 1000 yuan.
Top News
China
Will Trump visit China May 14-15? Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US remain in communication on this matter.
Minister Wang Wentao meets US Trade Representative Greer.
Huge profits turn into huge losses, Meituan's adjusted net loss for 2025 is 18.6 billion yuan, core local business operating loss is 6.9 billion yuan. Conference call: "Firmly against internal competition", "Absolutely not in a hurry to become a ‘token’ factory", Keeta Saudi profitability in sight.
SMIC's revenue for 2025 grew 16% YoY, setting a record high, net profit surged 39%, monthly capacity exceeded one million wafers.
MuXi shares’ revenue for 2025 surged 1.2 times YoY, net loss narrowed sharply to 790 million yuan, GPU sales surpassed 55,000 units.
The State Administration for Market Regulation holds the first enterprise fair competition symposium in 2026, with CATL, BYD, Meituan, and other companies attending.
Overseas
Trump delays strikes on Iranian energy facilities by ten days, deadline extended to April 6, says US-Iran negotiations are "very smooth". Trump: doesn’t know if US and Iran can reach an agreement, not urgent, Iran allows ten oil tankers through Hormuz, markets’ reaction to the conflict not as intense as expected. US media: The US is drafting "fatal blow" military plans against Iran, possibly including ground troops and massive bombing. Iran says it is ready for the US to "open the Hormuz Strait with suicide action", has organized over one million for ground combat. Iran responds to US 15-point ceasefire proposal via intermediaries, sets clear preconditions. Iranian ships from China, Russia, Pakistan, Iraq, India, Bangladesh, etc. safely passed through Hormuz.
Symbolic vote! Trump’s "backyard on fire": Democrats win Florida district where Mar-a-Lago is.
To save the yen, Japan considers "taking a bold step": directly shorting crude oil futures.
The Iran situation impacts US bonds, auction weak for the third time this week, US bonds' decline intensifies.
Major gold buyers shift: Turkish central bank sold $8 billion in gold during Iran war.
SEC begins questioning rating agencies’ integrity, private credit "blame game" officially starts.
Musk releases latest Optimus video, says production could start this summer, aiming for 1 million units in 2027. Tesla outlines Q1 delivery ahead, sell-side expects about 366,000 cars, results coming next week.
Market Wrap
US & European stock markets: S&P 500 fell 1.74% to 6477.16. Dow fell 1.01% to 45960.11. Nasdaq fell 2.38% to 21408.081. European STOXX 600 fell 1.13% to 580.84.
A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 3889.08, down 1.09%. Shenzhen Component closed at 13606.44, down 1.41%. Growth Enterprise Market Index closed at 3272.49, down 1.34%.
Bonds: US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose 7.95 basis points to 4.4117%. 2-year US Treasury yield rose 10.05 basis points to 3.9858%.
Commodities: After US market hours, WTI crude futures plunged from $94.39/barrel to $89.51. Brent crude futures plunged from $107.58/barrel to about $103, sharply narrowing daily gain. Spot gold rose from around $4350 to $4415.65, narrowing daily loss to 2.3%; spot silver rebounded from around $67 to $69, still down over 3% on the day.
News Details
Global Major News
China
Will Trump visit China May 14-15? Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US remain in communication. Lin Jian said head of state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China-US relations. Both sides communicate about President Trump's visit.
Minister Wang Wentao meets US Trade Representative Greer. Wang emphasized that China is willing to strengthen multilateral and regional trade cooperation with the US, jointly promote WTO reform, and achieve practical results at WTO's 14th ministerial conference. He also expressed serious concerns about US's 301 investigations based on so-called "overcapacity" and "failure to ban forced labor imports."
Huge profits turn to huge losses! Meituan's adjusted net loss for 2025 is 18.6 billion yuan, core local business operating loss 6.9 billion yuan. Conference call: "Firmly against internal competition", "Absolutely not in a hurry to become a ‘token’ factory", Keeta Saudi profitability in sight
- Meituan swung from profit to loss in 2025, annual revenue 364.9 billion yuan, up 8.1% YoY, annual loss 23.4 billion, reversed from last year's 35.8 billion profit. Core local business profit margin dropped sharply from 20.9% to -2.6%, loss of 6.9 billion, sales and marketing expenses soared 60.9% to over 100 billion, promotional incentives nearly doubled.
- CEO Wang Xing firmly stated "against internal competition", will actively withdraw from inefficient price wars. Meituan is attacking AI, AI assistant "Xiaotuan" open to all users, aiming to build a local life "AI super gateway". Overseas, Saudi market is expected to achieve the first profitable month before year-end, and guide new businesses to not lose more than last year in 2026.
Morgan Stanley’s Meituan performance review: no shock, no surprise, core game point remains market share and margin recovery. Meituan Q4 revenue grew 4%, in line with expectations; core local business operating loss narrowed 410 million USD QoQ, margin improved by 5.4 percentage points, biggest highlight of the quarter; but new business overseas investment caused losses to expand 264% QoQ. Morgan Stanley maintains overweight, target price HKD120, market share and margin slope remain key variables for valuation direction.
SMIC's revenue for 2025 grew 16% YoY, setting record high, net profit surged 39%, monthly capacity exceeded one million wafers. SMIC revenue for 2025 was $9.327 billion, profit $685 million, both record highs. Monthly capacity exceeded one million wafers, utilization rose to 93.5% boosting gross margin recovery. The company remains global second largest foundry, advancing integration & capital increase for SMIC North and South, guiding 2026 sales growth above industry average, capex about same as 2025.
MuXi’s 2025 revenue surged 1.2 times YoY, net loss narrowed sharply to 790 million yuan, GPU sales exceeded 55,000. Driven by accelerated domestic AI center construction and growing demand for local computing, MuXi achieved annual revenue of 1.644 billion yuan in 2025, up 121.26% YoY. Loss end improved, annual net loss 789 million yuan, decreased by 43.97% YoY; non-recurring net loss was 830 million yuan, decrease 20.52% YoY.
State Administration for Market Regulation holds the first enterprise fair competition symposium 2026, CATL, BYD, Meituan attended. The bureau will strengthen anti-monopoly enforcement, guide compliance, deeply address "internal competition", deepen institutional opening in competition areas, more strongly support enterprises in opening up international markets and achieving high-quality development.
Overseas
Trump delays strikes on Iranian energy facilities by ten days, deadline extended to April 6, says US-Iran negotiations "very smooth". Trump says, at Iran government’s request, strikes delayed to April 6, 8 PM EST; US-Iran negotiations ongoing, progressing very smoothly, despite contrary claims by "fake news". US oil, which rose nearly 6% intraday, turned negative. This is the second delay after Trump’s strike threat; last Saturday he said 48 hours deadline, then extended to this Friday.
Trump: not sure if US-Iran agreement is possible, not urgent, Iran allows ten tankers through Hormuz, markets’ reaction not as expected. At Cabinet meeting, Trump said Iran "begs for agreement", I don't care, unsure if we can do it or even want to; if "right agreement" reached, Hormuz will open, unclear if sea mines exist; Iran offers "big gift", first eight, then ten tankers passed; controlling Iranian oil is "an option"; if Iran doesn't abandon nukes, US will be their nightmare. Presidential envoy confirmed Pakistan as mediator, said US 15-point framework yielded positive signals; Defense Secretary said bombs on negotiation table, Iran privately admitted heavy losses.
US media: US drafting “fatal blow” military plans against Iran, possibly including ground troops and massive bombing. Plans include invading/blockading Iran's major oil export hub Kharg Island, attacking strategic locations controlling Hormuz Strait, seizing Abu Musa and two other small islands at western mouth, and blocking/seizing Iranian shipping on east side.
Iran says ready for US "suicide action" to open Hormuz Strait, has organized over one million for ground combat. Iranian military says ground war is more dangerous and costly for enemy; if enemy tries ground actions on Iranian islands/territory, Iran will open new front at Bab-el-Mandeb. US media says Pentagon's "fatal blow" plan may include ground troops, massive bombing, invading oil export hubs, and controlling key islands. Israeli military says killed IRGC Navy Commander and senior officers. UK media says Hormuz control system allowed passage for 26 ships. EU says Russia provided info to Iran; Russia denies.
Iran responds via intermediary to US 15-point ceasefire proposal, sets clear preconditions. CCTV cited insiders saying Iran’s response required stopping enemy’s aggression and terror acts; creating objective conditions to prevent war from recurring; explicit commitment to war loss compensation and implementation; all resistance groups in all regions must end operations.
Putin hopes Middle East conflict ends in weeks, warns consequences could rival Covid. Putin said ME conflict severely disrupts international logistics, production, and supply chains, impacting hydrocarbons, metals, fertilizers, and related industries. While conflict brings Russia windfall profit, it won’t last, shouldn’t expect a long-term "unexpected gain".
Iran: China, Russia, Pakistan, Iraq, India, Bangladesh ships passed Hormuz safely. Iran FM Aragchi reiterated Hormuz Strait isn’t completely closed, only closed to enemies. For friendly nations or when Iran decides to offer convenience, Hormuz is safe to pass.
Symbolic vote! Trump "backyard on fire": Democrats win Mar-a-Lago's Florida district. Democrats reversed results in Trump’s "backyard" Palm Beach, Gregory won by over 2 percentage points, flipping a seat Republicans won by 19 points in 2024 election; Democrats also took Tampa Senate seat. Trump’s endorsement failed, approval rating fell to new low for second term, oil price surge and living costs raise GOP midterm concerns.
To save yen, Japan considers "bold move": directly shorting crude oil futures! The yen in crisis, Tokyo tries unprecedented "trick" — using $1.4 trillion FX reserves to short crude futures, aiming to depress oil prices and break the "oil up → dollar demand rises → yen crashes" chain. Insiders say government lacks consensus, effects expected to be short-lived even if implemented.
Iran situation impacts US bonds! Third weak auction this week, US bond losses intensify. All US 2-, 5-, 7-year bonds issued this week had winning yields higher than pre-auction market levels, first time since May 2024, three bad auctions in a month. Besides Iran conflict dampening rate cut expectations, possibly even rate hike expectations, market volatility raised transaction costs, especially for short-term bonds, possibly one reason for weak auctions.
Major gold buyers shift! Turkish central bank sold $8 billion in gold during Iran war. Within two weeks after Iran war began, Turkey’s central bank sold and swapped about 60 tons gold, worth over $8 billion, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Part sold directly, most swapped for FX or lira liquidity. The sale marks a clear policy shift: for ten years, Turkey was one of world’s most active gold buyers.
SEC begins questioning rating agencies’ integrity, private credit "blame game" officially starts. US SEC recently questioned if Egan-Jones can "continue issuing ratings with integrity", not routine review but public challenge to the core mechanisms of private credit markets. As private credit redemption gates close, asset values become questioned, responsibility attribution among market participants is accelerating.
Musk releases latest Optimus video, says production could start this summer, aiming for 1 million units in 2027. Tesla released latest Optimus video, showing gearbox, agile hand, and other key hardware design and R&D environment, highlighting engineering progress; over 100 positions open. Musk announced Optimus V3 mass production starts this summer, aiming for 1 million units per year by 2027, ultimate target $10 trillion revenue.
Tesla outlines Q1 delivery, sell-side expects about 366,000 vehicles, results coming next week. Tesla published consensus forecast from 23 sell-side institutions for Q1 deliveries, not company guidance. Analysts expect deliveries to grow 8% YoY but fall 24% QoQ.
Research Report Highlights
When will Trump “TACO” again? Wall Street finds pattern: US oil nears $100 or US bond yields reach 4.5%. Whenever US oil approaches $100 or 10-year US bond yields approach 4.5%, White House shifts from tough to cooling down mode. Deutsche Bank’s TACO "pressure index" considers four factors: Trump's monthly approval change, 1-year inflation expectations, S&P 500 performance, and US bond yield. If all four pain points worsen together, motivation to adjust is strong.
Why can’t the US protect the Hormuz Strait? Iran doesn’t need to close the strait, just make it unusable.
If the market follows the "1970s playbook", gold just repeated the first drop after "1971-1973 rally". The current market is playing to "1970s stagflation": gold’s recent decline isn’t because it’s weak but is repeating the "pullback after rally" pattern in history; in the short run, gold is used as a cash "ATM", but long run remains the winner against inflation, the key now is how long oil rises and dollar stays strong.
Traders bet on Fed rate hikes, analysts contradict: at least one cut this year, earliest September! Swaps markets currently imply over 50% chance of a hike this year. However, Reuters’ survey of 82 economists shows nearly three-quarters expect the Fed won’t cut rates before September, but most still expect at least one cut this year: 37 expect two cuts, 28 one cut, 13 no change, 4 three cuts.
AI wave brings a jobs winter — could it trigger the next Great Depression? Citrini Research outlines a "smart substitution spiral" economic crash: AI replaces white-collar jobs, firms cut wage costs, consumer demand shrinks, profit margins narrow, in turn forcing more AI replacement, vicious cycle leads to economic winter. Citadel Securities and Bianco Research think AI spread is controllable, labor market has time to adjust. All three agree: transition speed decides risk magnitude.
China Macro
Key issue after A-share drop: some assets may never recover. Guotou Lin Rongxiong says A-shares face dual logic shift: institutional tech positioning exceeds 50%, overseas resource trades imbalance near 90%, high oil prices drive strong dollar and liquidity contraction, "rebalancing" is inevitable. Looking at history, current situation like 2021’s "structure change" not 2022’s "position reduction", but beware: future trends have low correlation with leaders from past three years, say farewell to old logic and prepare mentally.
Chinese Companies
Goldman: Temu enters "monetization" phase, Pinduoduo sees new turning point! Goldman bullish on Pinduoduo, says Temu (cross-border e-commerce biz) in developed markets has completed switch to "local-to-local" delivery, business resilience up; predicts Temu will reach profitability inflection point in 2027, expected profit 3.2 billion yuan. Goldman also says domestic revenue acceleration and undervaluation mean very attractive risk-reward now.
Labubu myth shattered? Overseas growth below expectations, three major banks downgrade Pop Mart target price. Goldman, Morgan Stanley, UBS all downgrade Pop Mart earnings and target price. All three agree overseas expansion engine cooling, short-term growth volatility will increase stock volatility, but long-term IP eco value still supports basics. Key controversy: is growth slowdown just temporary due to management, or sign of Labubu IP cycle peak.
Industrial Bank 2025 financial report: total assets break 11 trillion, cash dividend ratio tops 30%.
China Mobile 2025 revenue breaks 1 trillion, AI computing revenue achieves double-digit growth.
Pony.ai first quarterly profit in Q4, Robotaxi commercialization speeds up, goal to cover 20 cities by year-end. Q4 Pony.ai turned profitable by investing in Moore Threads, net profit $75.5 million, but core business non-GAAP loss widened. Robotaxi biz strong, 7th gen vehicles profitable in Guangzhou & Shenzhen. Company is speeding up global expansion, fleet >3000 cars by year-end, service in 20+ cities.
Dark Side of the Moon reportedly considering HK IPO, company valuation already $18 billion. Media says Dark Side of the Moon has approached CICC and Goldman for a potential IPO, timing uncertain as talks ongoing, may not IPO in the end. Seeking to raise up to $1 billion in private round, company valuation about $18 billion.
Overseas Macro
Pressuring Waller to cut rates? Trump jokes: Waller can work in White House. Trump joked: "If Waller is elected Fed Chair, he could even work directly in White House." Then asked: "Is there any reason not to cut rates now?" emphasizing need for monetary easing. He again lashed out at Fed Chair Powell, calling him "idiot", and thanked federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro and AG Pam Bondi for launching criminal probe against Powell.
Déjà vu from 2022! Iran war triggers Wall Street stocks-bonds-gold "triple kill", cash ratio jumps to 4.3%. Bank of America survey shows fund manager cash holdings jumped from 3.4% in Feb to 4.3%, biggest monthly rise in six years. Oil price surge boosts inflation expectations, those who previously bet on rate cuts now price in a Fed hike by October. Current market reaction mirrors early days of 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. JPMorgan notes cash allocation still below then 5.9%, if uncertainty persists, market adjustment not over.
Foreign investors flee, Asia stocks may see biggest outflow since 2009. Due to Mideast conflict & oil price surge, emerging Asia markets are seeing the largest foreign selling in 15 years, about $52 billion outflow this month, India & South Korea most exposed due to energy dependence. Morgan Stanley warns: with Hormuz Strait supply risk and strong dollar, if US-Iran ceasefire talks remain stuck, foreign investor wait-and-see mood unlikely to reverse soon.
Europe's largest economy suffers, German officials warn Iran crisis may halve 2026 GDP growth. German government estimates show if Mideast conflict continues, worst case 2026 GDP growth could fall to 0.5%, just half the official forecast. Even in optimistic scenario where energy prices stay high but don’t surge, GDP growth just 0.6-0.7%. Slower growth will drag on tax revenue, officials discussing raising VAT from 19% to at least 21%.
Crude futures in backwardation: investors bet Iran conflict is brief, high risk not fully priced in. Crude futures curve in backwardation means markets bet on quick US-Iran conflict finish, near-term Brent nears $99, distant months fall to $79 — seemingly rational but risky: analysts warn infrastructure damage & nuclear complexity make this "relative calm" price extreme fragile, tail risks not fully priced in.
Overseas Companies
TurboQuant "debuts", tech circle calls it "Google's DeepSeek", "real Pied Piper", Wall Street says "buy memory stocks". Google AI memory compression tech TurboQuant debuts, claims to reduce LM cache memory 6x, boost performance 8x, triggers market panic — Micron, SanDisk, etc. memory giants dropped over 5% intraday. But Wall Street banks say "buy the dip": history shows compression algorithms never fundamentally change hardware procurement scale, citing Jevons Paradox, efficiency revolution not just compresses demand but stimulates larger AI scale.
Google releases highest-quality audio model Gemini 3.1 Flash Live — low latency, high precision, enables new real-time voice interaction paradigm. Gemini 3.1 Flash Live designed for real-time audio and speech interaction, helps devs build "voice-first" agents for complex tasks at scale, maintains context in multi-turn dialogue; scores 90.8% in ComplexFuncBench Audio, far exceeding prior generation. Model prioritizes dev ecosystem, fully open to developers, API and scenario integration.
Meta Texas data center investment surges 6x to $10 billion, full AI computing push. Meta now plans to invest $10 billion in its El Paso, Texas AI data center, up from prior $1.5 billion. Target is 1GW power capacity online by 2028. Thursday Meta closed down nearly 8%, led big tech falls, largest daily drop since Oct 30.
Industry / Concepts
1. RISC-V | On March 26, at the Zhongguancun Forum annual RISC-V ecosystem conference, the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced breakthrough achievements in RISC-V technology, industry collaborative innovation, and talent development, including the "Xiangshan" open-source processor and "Ruyi" native OS as major milestones, and launched joint R&D for next-gen chips and OS. Leading companies including China Mobile, China Telecom, ZTE, Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, etc., will collaborate across chips, OS, terminals, applications to accelerate industry-academia integration.
Comment: Research institutions view RISC-V’s move into HPC as a strategic turning point for chip industry’s innovation. From embedded apps to datacenter computing, from specialized control to general-purpose processing, RISC-V is reshaping chip industry competition. In the long run, RISC-V could rival ARM and x86, becoming a mainstream platform — once HPC ecology established, industry transformation will speed up.
2. Vitamins | Bai Chuan Ying Fu data shows, March 26, Vitamin C market price 19.5 yuan/kg, up 8.33% vs March 25, about 14.7% rise in two months.
Comment: Research notes vitamin APIs rising in prosperity, many types in price increase channel, VE, niacin (VB3), folic acid (VB9) in lead. Vitamin API prices started at historic lows, with upstream chemical raw material and oil shipping price hikes, industry controls capacity, strong will to raise price. As vitamins mainly feed additives with low cost ratio, downstream insensitive to price — smooth price hike with big room.
3. Computing Power | China Academy of Information and Communications Technology says March 26, China Computing Power Platform (Guizhou) kicked off in Guiyang. Guizhou is a major node in “East Data, West Computation” national project, with robust computing infra and solid industry base.
Comment: Huachuang Securities says computing power system has general, AI, super types; AI computing most tied to AI. In China, AI computing dominates, over 90%. Thanks to AI, in 2025 China’s AI computing up 119% YoY, far beyond IDC forecasts. IDC expects from 2026-2028, China’s AI computing will keep ~40% average annual growth.
4. Embodied Intelligence | On March 26, Guangzhou city government issued plan to boost AI industry, proposing to push embodied intelligent robot commercialization, support self-developed core components, expand use in industry, home, healthcare.
Comment: Securities Times says embodied intelligence industry integrates advanced tech, complex systems, diverse scenarios, moving society toward smart era. Tesla leads global “physical AI” industry revolution, humanoid robots as key pillar, “data-algorithm-hardware” closed-loop iteration. Tesla preheating Optimus V3, drawing market attention, launch may bring focus back to humanoid robots, currently high sector prosperity, several domestic companies pursuing IPOs. With AI empowerment, big companies and policy support, humanoid robot industrialization accelerates.
Today’s Preview
China large-scale industrial enterprise profits.
Zhongguancun Forum Brain-Computer Interface Innovation Forum.
US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
Richmond Fed President Barkin, San Francisco Fed President Daly, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speeches.
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Risk DisclaimerThe market is risky, invest cautiously. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their own situation. Investing accordingly is at their own risk. ```