Wall Street Journal Breakfast FM-Radio | November 26, 2025

Wall Street Journal Breakfast FM-Radio | November 26, 2025

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Market Overview

Positive economic data favors Federal Reserve rate cuts in December, three major U.S. stock indices close higher for three consecutive days, although pressured by some tech stocks, which simultaneously fell during the session. By the close, the Dow rose over 1%, S&P and Nasdaq both hit nearly two-week highs. NVIDIA dropped over 7% intraday, closing down 2.6%, the only loser among the tech "magnificent seven", NVIDIA’s AI sector fell together, CoreWeave closed down over 3%; Google’s AI sector rose, Google rose over 1%, creating new historical highs for three consecutive days, Broadcom rose nearly 2%, approaching its record high, Meta rose nearly 4% after rumors of considering Google TPU use.

Chinese concept index underperformed the major market; after earnings release, Pony.ai closed up nearly 6%, Alibaba rose then fell, closing down over 2%, Nio fell over 4%.

Weak U.S. labor market, core PPI growth below expectations, U.S. bond prices rose again, 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.0% intraday for the first time this month. The U.S. dollar index fell from its near half-year high for two days; offshore RMB rose more than 200 basis points intraday, breaking 7.08 for the first time in 13 months; cryptocurrencies, which had rebounded for days, retreated, Bitcoin fell more than 3% intraday below $87,000.

Investors focus on Russia-Ukraine peace prospects, crude oil fell to a one-month low, dropped nearly 3% intraday. Gold futures rose for three straight days, over 1% higher, closing at a record high.

In the Asian session, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rallied; the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. “Google chain” boomed, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.2%, technology stocks followed the rise.

Headlines

United States economic data shows increased probability of rate cuts: September PPI up 0.3% month-on-month, energy costs push inflation higher, core PPI month-on-month growth of 0.1% below expectations; ADP weekly report: Private sector jobs have averaged a decrease of 13,500 per week in the past four weeks, with worsening losses; September retail sales rose 0.2% MoM, far below expectations, with auto sales as the major drag.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Federal Reserve chair selection may be announced before Christmas. The Fed should return to its backstage role; Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett is reportedly the front runner for Fed chair; Trump’s Fed Governor Milan: Significant rate cuts are needed, current monetary policy hinders economic development and gradually raises unemployment.

Reports say Ukraineagreed to the core terms of the U.S.-proposed plan, crude oil dropped nearly 3% intraday; Trump saidonly a few differences remain, and he has appointed U.S. officials for peace talks with Russia and Ukraine; Ukraine says Zelenskyplans to meet Trump on the 27th.

AI competitive landscape is shifting, NVIDIAplunged 7% intraday, Google reached new highs again; after NVIDIA's major drop, it unusually reassured the market: our GPU leads Google AI chips by a generation; “big shorts” start “AI bubble” debates, saying “NVIDIA is the new Cisco.”

Huawei launch: Mate 80 series starts at 4,699 yuan, first to use HarmonyOS 6, foldable Mate X7 series starts at 12,999 yuan.

Alibaba Q3 revenue grew 4.8% year-on-year, cloud revenue surged 34%, instant retail robust growth of 60%; conference call: Qianwen may become future AI life portal, Flash Sale Q4 investment expected to shrink significantly, may make additional investment outside the 380 billion capex commitment.

Pony.ai Q3 revenue up 72% YoY, gross margin up to 18.4%, Robotaxi revenue grew nearly 90%, reaching single-car profitability at the city level.

Nio Q3 revenue grew 16.7% to 21.8 billion yuan, vehicle gross margin hit a record 14.7%, Q4 revenue and delivery guidance reached new highs.

Dell current quarter guidance above expectation, raises annual AI server shipment guidance, after-hours up over 5%.

Market Close

U.S. and European Stock Markets: S&P 500 up 0.91% to 6,765.88, Dow up 1.43% to 47,112.45, Nasdaq up 0.67% to 23,025.591. European STOXX 600 up 0.91% to 568.01.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 0.87% to 3,870.02; Shenzhen Component up 1.53% to 12,777.31; ChiNext up 1.77% to 2,980.93.

Bond Market: By end of session, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at around 4.00%, down about 2bps on the day; 2-year yield at around 3.46%, down about 4bps.

Commodities: WTI January crude futures down 1.51% to $57.95/barrel; Brent January crude down 1.40% to $62.48/barrel. COMEX December gold up 1.12% to $4,140/oz. LME Nickel up about 1.2% to $14,872/ton.

Headline Details

Global Highlights

U.S. September PPI up 0.3% MoM, energy costs drive inflation higher, core PPI MoM growth rate below expectations. Data show that 60% of the September PPI increase was due to gasoline costs rising. Excluding food and energy, September core PPI was up 0.1% MoM, below the expected 0.2%, and up 2.6% YoY, the mildest rise since July last year. “New Fed Press” Nick Timiraos commented: wholesale price rises mean Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge may be limited.

Higher chance of rate cuts: ADP weekly shows Private sector jobs fell by an average of 13,500 per week in the past four weeks, losses accelerated. ADP's weekly data show private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, up from 2,500 in the prior period—layoffs accelerated. Analysts say the data increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in December.

U.S. September retail sales up 0.2% MoM, far below expectations, auto sales were the main drag. U.S. retail sales were up 0.2% MoM in September, marking four straight months of positive growth but slowing sharply, far below market expectations. Auto sales down for the first time in four months, mainly due to the expiry of EV tax credits. True retail sales have grown YoY for 12 consecutive months, but consumption is showing "K-shaped" divergence, and weak job market plus low consumer confidence may reinforce rate-cut expectations.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Fed chair selection may be announced before Christmas, Fed should return to its backstage role. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Nov 25 that Trump may announce the new Fed chair before Christmas. He revealed he still has one more interview, and supports the Fed returning to pre-crisis backstage role, less market intervention. Powell’s term ends May 2026, currently rate cut debate is split inside the Fed, a third rate cut still possible at December meeting.

Trump’s chief economic advisor, National Economic Council head Hassett is said to be the leading candidate for Fed chair. Still, Trump is known for sudden choices, so the nomination isn’t final until publicly announced. Hassett reportedly shares Trump’s view that rates need to be lowered.

Reports: Ukraine agreed to core terms of U.S.-proposed plan, Trump says only a few differences remain, Ukraine says Zelensky to meet Trump on the 27th. After the news, oil dropped nearly 3% intraday. Ukraine’s top security official said Ukraine and the U.S. have agreed on the “core terms” presented at Geneva talks. White House press secretary said the U.S. made “great progress” on a peace deal, with just “a few subtle but not insurmountable details” left. Trump said the original 28-point proposal has been refined, just a few differences remain; to finalize it, U.S. officials have been assigned to work with Russia and Ukraine on the peace plan.

AI competitive dynamics shift: NVIDIA plunged 7% intraday, Google reached new highs again. Reports say Meta is considering using Google’s TPU, not NVIDIA chips, in its data centers by 2027. Investors are catching subtle changes in the AI race; previously lagging Google is now showing signs of a comeback. Wall Street insiders say the Gemini 3 release “may be a more important event than DeepSeek”, the market is embracing Google as the clear AI leader. Google’s latest model “resets the AI board”, bringing the market to a “new DeepSeek moment.”

  • After major drop, NVIDIA unusually reassures market: our GPU is a generation ahead of Google’s AI chip. NVIDIA posted claiming they are currently a generation ahead of the industry, the only universal platform for all AI models/scenarios, emphasizing their chips offer “higher performance, versatility, and interchangeability” than Google TPUs and other ASICs. Google said demand for both custom TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs are rising, and both will be supported as before.
  • “Google chain”: Full-stack AI innovation, TPU+OCS together shape next-gen intelligent computing network. Zhongtai Securities believes the key technological variable for this “Google chain” boom is the thorough adoption of OCS optical switching. Essentially, it uses physical optical paths to transmit data, completely abandoning the “optical-electrical-optical” signal conversion process. By deeply integrating self-developed TPUs and OCS, Google has overcome traditional data center energy efficiency and scalability limits, setting new architecture standards for the next-gen intelligent computing network. Around chips (TPU), network (OCS), models (Gemini), and applications (cloud/search/ads), Google has built a full-stack AI moat.
  • In-depth analysis: Google's TPU “real world power” matches Blackwell, energy efficiency much better than GPU. For investors and cloud vendors, TPUs’ value is not just speed but profit margin. By controlling the full-stack design, Google avoids the “NVIDIA tax”. Meanwhile, Broadcom’s margin is much lower than NVIDIA’s, allowing Google to reduce compute costs to the minimum. From TPU v6 to the newly exposed v7, Google is not just making chips but building a nearly unbreakable moat for the coming “AI inference era.”
  • How was Gemini 3 trained without NVIDIA? Google’s new multimodal Gemini 3 uses a sparse MoE architecture and native multimodal design, trained entirely on their own TPUs, with 1M token context capacity. The model is optimized for multi-step reasoning via reinforcement learning; though leading in fact accuracy and reasoning benchmarks, its hallucination rate is still as high as 88%, showing no real breakthrough in self-aware cognition.

The “Big Short” battles NVIDIA, “AI bubble” debate begins. “Big Short” Michael Burry posted his manifesto “The Supply-Side Gluttony”, officially declaring war on the AI bubble. He rebuts the “profit equals safety” claim, saying “NVIDIA is the Cisco of the past”, warning of catastrophic over-supply and depreciation. The legendary short believes: no matter how people try to prove “this time is different”, history from 1999 is repeating now.

Huawei launch: Mate 80 series from 4,699 yuan, first with HarmonyOS 6, foldable Mate X7 series from 12,999 yuan. Huawei Mate 80 series released, the first to achieve 8,000-nit ultra-bright display, all-metal high-strength body and AI tuning technology, 35% performance leap over previous generation. Mate 80 series starts at 4,699 yuan, Mate 80 Pro from 5,999 yuan.

Alibaba Q3 revenue up 4.8% YoY, cloud revenue surged 34%, instant retail up 60%; conference call: Qianwen may become AI life portal, significant Flash Sale investment cut in Q4, possible additional investment outside the CNY 380 billion capex promise.

  • Alibaba Q3 revenue was 247.8 billion yuan, up 4.8% YoY, slightly ahead of market expectation. Cloud intelligence revenue up 34%, AI products continue rapid growth, now number one for AI cloud in China. Instant retail revenue 22.906 billion yuan, up 60%. Adjusted net profit dropped 72%, attributed to instant retail and tech investment.
  • Management noted Q3 was peak investment for Flash Sale, future spend will shrink significantly. Wu Yongming said even not just new GPUs are fully utilized, even GPUs three or five years old are fully used, so in the next three years, talk of an AI bubble is unlikely.

Pony.ai Q3 revenue up 72% YoY, gross margin to 18.4%, single-car profit milestone at city level. In Q3, Pony.ai revenue was $25.4 million, up 72% YoY, gross margin up to 18.4%, mainly driven by Robotaxi. Revenue from Robotaxi was $6.7 million, up 89.5% YoY, passenger fare rising over 200%, boosting growth and profit. The company achieved single-car profit milestone at city level, and via tech upgrades reduced hardware cost, but still faces $69.7 million operating loss and cash flow pressure.

Nio Q3 revenue up 16.7% to 21.8 billion, vehicle gross margin record 14.7%, Q4 revenue and deliveries both at new highs. Q3 deliveries were 87,071 smart EVs, up 40.8% YoY, all three brands (Nio, Ledao, Firefly) made market breakthroughs, setting foundation for new growth cycle. Q4 deliveries expected 120,000–125,000, up 65.1%–72.0% YoY; total revenue expected 32.8–34 billion yuan, up 66.3%–72.8%.

Dell’s quarterly guidance beat expectations, raises annual AI server shipment guidance, after-hours up over 5%. Dell announced after hours: Q3 revenue slightly under expectations, but EPS ahead, Q4 guidance also above expectations, raising annual AI server shipment target to $25 billion from $20 billion, signaling strong AI server demand.

Domestic Companies

TSMC CEO: Advanced process capacity “is not enough, not enough, still not enough”, current capacity short by 3x. TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia said, according to clients’ product planning and growth forecasts, current capacity is short by about threefold. He joked he almost wore a “No more wafer” T-shirt to the awards—implying wafer demand is too strong to absorb.

Global Macro

Compared to “Apollo landing”, Trump officially signs “Genesis Plan”, marshaling U.S. resources to drive AI research. President Trump directed Energy Secretary Chris Wright to set up and run the “U.S. Science & Security Platform”. The platform will gather high-performance computing, AI modeling frameworks, computing tools, foundational models, and secure data access. The White House called the plan the most ambitious U.S. science mobilization since putting men on the moon.

Five shocks hit together! This bitcoin crash logic is totally different from before. Deutsche Bank says, unlike previous retail-driven collapses, this round is driven by five shocks: macro headwinds, hawkish Fed, stalled regulation, outflow of institutional funds, and long-term holders selling for profit. The investment logic for bitcoin is shifting, and risk management is now critical.

Are central banks “selling gold” now? Global central bank gold buying surged from 450 tons in 2021 to 1089 tons in 2024, now the main driver of gold demand. In 2025, Russia and others will start selling as holdings exceed targets, but China, India and others’ central bank gold share is well below 20% baseline, so global central banks could still raise gold allocation by 4.7 percentage points.

Goldman admits energy storage demand exceeded expectations, but still “medium-term bearish” on lithium prices. Goldman says energy storage demand is rewriting short-term lithium market supply/demand dynamics: prices at $11,000/ton in H1 2026, but supply growth will drive prices down to $9,500/ton in H2. Medium-term bearish view remains, and expects supply surplus to return by 2027 unless producers cut expansion, with supply outpacing demand by 18%.

International Companies

OpenAI “AI hardware” is coming! Altman: More peaceful, tranquil than iPhone. Altman says the no-screen AI device co-developed with ex-Apple designer Jony Ive will come to market within two years, an “experience beyond iPhone”. It features minimalism and atmosphere, rejects noisy info, focuses on human-centered intelligence, letting AI bring “mountain lake tranquility”.

Musk starts replacing staff with Grok, some departments cut by 90%. Musk continues pushing AI to replace humans, after firing over 500 xAI data labelers in September, he’s slashed X content safety team by nearly 90% from its original 100+ staff. He recently said he will soon fully replace X's recommender algorithm with Grok, which will automatically match user interests by reading and watching all content. He is also accelerating automated software development via xAI and the “giant hard plan.”

“E-commerce Agent”—AI apps with huge commercial potential are growing. AI e-commerce Agents are reshaping the shopping gateway: Morgan Stanley predicts Agent e-commerce could be $385 billion in 2030, or 20% of all U.S. e-commerce. Currently, platforms like ChatGPT show strong conversion—36% of users buy based on AI suggestions, and Alibaba’s Qianwen APP and OpenAI’s shopping search show tech giants are racing for new “conversation-to-transaction” traffic.

Industry/Concepts

1. Space Computing Power: According to Wuxi Property Exchange announcement, the “Liangxi Constellation” project is open for bidding, owned by Wuxi Xinguan Technology Co., funding self-raised, estimated at 450 million yuan. The project will build a constellation of 12 smart satellites, all with 3D printed additive manufacturing, carrying leading “Liangxi-made” supercomputing modules, with total computing power at least 20P after networking, covering satellites’ overall solution including development, launch, frequency, measurement, control and operations.

2. Artificial Intelligence: Alibaba released Q2 FY2026 earnings: revenue was 247.8 billion yuan, of which Cloud Intelligence Group income was 39.82 billion, both above market expectations. CEO Wu Yongming said the company is strategically investing in AI tech and infrastructure, strong AI demand further boosted Cloud Intelligence revenue, 34% YoY growth, AI product revenue saw triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters. AI revenue’s share of external cloud business increased, customer management income up 10% YoY. In the past four quarters, Alibaba spent 120 billion yuan on AI+cloud infrastructure capex.

3. Aerospace: China National Space Administration released the “Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025–2027)”, which aims to improve investment/financing mechanisms, set up a national commercial aerospace development fund, encourage joint ventures of local governments, banks, social capital. Expand government procurement, promote commercial rockets/satellites/launch sites/measurement and control to participate in national tasks. Focus support on new tech, product and application scenarios.

4. Quantum Computing: According to Shenzhen News, China’s first mass-production quantum computer factory was inaugurated in Shenzhen Nanshan Zhicheng, marking quantum computing’s shift from lab to industry. Total area is about 5,000 sqm, integrating R&D, production and testing, to achieve engineering, standardization and mass production of quantum computers.

5. Coal Power: According to China News, the world’s first 630℃ ultra-supercritical dual reheat demonstration project’s core equipment was shipped from Sichuan Deyang on Nov 25, to be used at Datang Yuncheng power project, setting four world records: steam pressure 35.5MPa, steam inlet temp 631℃, generation efficiency over 50%, coal use for supply only 256.28g/kWh.

6. Artificial Intelligence: Shanghai Securities News learned Singapore's national AI program (AISG) is carrying out a major strategic adjustment—in its new Southeast Asia language model project, it abandoned Meta model for Alibaba’s Qwen open-source framework, marking a key expansion for China's AI model global influence. This highlights Alibaba Qwen’s global rise in open-source AI: since being fully open in 2023, Qwen has surpassed Llama, DeepSeek, becoming the world’s highest performing and most widely used open-source model.

7. Face Recognition: On Nov 25, Huawei held an online full-scenario launch, debuting Huawei Mate 80 series phones. Huawei’s Executive Director and Product Investment Committee Chair Yu Chengdong announced the Mate80 series supports 3D facial recognition. All Mate80 phones come standard with 3D ToF tech, achieving financial-grade payment security, now supporting over 150 mainstream apps for 3D face login/payment. The phone can use Huawei account's one-click login with 3D face, balancing convenience and security.

8. Data Elements: Deputy Director of China National Data Bureau Chen Ronghui said on Nov 25 that recently, the Bureau and the State-owned Asset Supervision Commission launched a pilot program for state-owned enterprises to develop and use data resources, identifying 12 central SOEs as first batch pilots, jointly with private firms, research institutes and service orgs. In July, the Bureau and the Asset Commission initiated the data efficiency upgrade action for state-owned firms; first batch of pilot programs underway.

Major Upcoming News

U.S. September durable goods orders.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims.

U.S. October new home sales.

Federal Reserve Beige Book on Economic Conditions released.

U.S. weekly EIA crude oil inventory change.

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Risk Warning & DisclaimerThe market is risky, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not considered individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article fit their specific situation. Any investment based on this, responsibility lies with the user. ```