Wall Street "legendary tycoon" Paul Tudor Jones: The AI bull market "can last another one or two years"

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Legendary hedge fund figure Paul Tudor Jones stated that the AI-driven stock market bull run is not yet over; he has recently increased his holdings in related stocks and is seeking historical parallels from technological boom cycles decades ago.

On Thursday, Jones said in a media interview that the current stage of AI development is highly similar to the accelerated commercialization of the Internet in 1995. He estimates this AI bull market has completed about 50% to 60% of its course and "could last another one or two years." He likens the current market sentiment to 1999—which was still about a year before the internet bubble peaked in early 2000.

Jones also issued a warning: If the stock market climbs another 40% from current levels, the ratio of total market value to GDP could rise to 300% to 350%, at which point "there will inevitably be some sort of breathtaking major correction." While he remains optimistic about the outlook, he does not shy away from the downside risk once the bull market eventually ends.

Jones is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Tudor Investment, and became famous for accurately predicting and profiting from the 1987 stock market crash. His latest comments provide a veteran’s endorsement for the still-volatile AI trading logic and serve as a reference for investors to realign the timing of the AI rally.

Comparing Microsoft and the Internet: The Productivity Miracle Is Still Midway

Jones compares recent AI breakthroughs to two historical milestones: first, Microsoft’s early dominance in software in the 1980s; second, the mid-1990s wave of Internet commercialization, especially the acceleration after the release of Windows 95 in 1995. He believes both technological revolutions triggered sustained productivity surges and market upcycles lasting four to five and a half years.

"I think Claude in January this year is like the moment Microsoft emerged in 1981," Jones said. He views the release of Anthropic’s Claude model earlier this year as a landmark in the AI revolution.

"Both periods mark the beginning of productivity miracles, each lasting four to five and a half years," he explained, "We’re roughly 50% to 60% through the current cycle. If I had to pick a benchmark, I think there’s another year or two to go."

End-of-bull-market signals are emerging; the correction may be “breathtaking”

Although optimistic about the outlook, Jones remains highly cautious about the downside risks when the bull market ends. He pointed out that, in terms of overall market trajectory, the current feeling is like 1999—rather than the peak of the internet bubble in 2000. This suggests there may still be upside, but the top is not far.

"Imagine if the stock market rises another 40%, the ratio of market value to GDP will be around 300% or 350%," Jones said:

"At that point, there will surely be some… breathtaking major correction."

In the past few years, driven by expectations that AI will transform industries and substantially boost productivity, U.S. stocks have soared, with semiconductor makers, cloud computing firms, and generative AI developers leading the rally, repeatedly pushing the S&P 500 Index to fresh highs.

Increasing AI Assets, Building Positions Through a “Basket” Approach

Jones said he has recently increased his investments in AI-related assets, but did not disclose the exact timing or stock picks. He emphasized that, as a macro trader, he typically buys a basket of related assets rather than betting on individual stocks.

"I’m a macro trader, so I just buy baskets," he said, "I just want to say, this is a crazy, crazy time… I always like to look for historical precedents."

In the context of AI still being in its early stages, Jones’ remark is both a confirmation of the current bull run logic and an implicit warning about overheating valuations—his mix of optimism and caution perhaps reflects the mindset of many institutional investors today.

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