Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | April 6, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

On Friday, strong U.S. nonfarm payroll data suppressed rate cut expectations, U.S. Treasuries came under pressure, and U.S. stock futures fell. The U.S. spot stock market was closed.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.

Rate-sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 3.86%, and the 10-year yield rose over 5 basis points.

The dollar surged above the 100 level at one point. Bitcoin was sideways below $67,000. Ethereum edged down 0.7%.

Commodity markets were closed due to the holiday. CFTC position reports show that in the week ending March 31, speculators’ net long positions in U.S. oil decreased by 18,000 contracts to 130,000 contracts, a four-week low.

In early Asian trading Monday, WTI crude futures rose above $115/barrel, up more than 3% intraday; U.S. stock futures extended losses, Nasdaq 100 index futures dropped nearly 0.9%, S&P 500 index futures dropped 0.7%.

Top News

Trump threatens again: “April 7 will be Iran’s power plant day and bridge day” and “open that damned strait!” Trump warns Iran: ‘48 hours left’, Iran military responds: “make the aggressors pay the price.”

“No public appearances since Wednesday!” Trump‘unusually’ low-key, worked all weekend, skipped Mar-a-Lago. Wednesday’s speech was “unsuccessful”, he was dissatisfied with “media coverage”, frustrated by “war aftermath”, and considering ‘large-scale cabinet reshuffle’.

Iraqgot an exemption, French and Japaneseships passed through one after another, Hormuz passage hitting post-war high. Iranian officials propose condition to reopen Strait of Hormuz: first, use ship tolls to compensate Iran for war losses.

Iran media release images of “downed” US military aircraft: wreckage spread everywhere, smoke drifting.

OPEC+plans symbolic increase of output quota to 206,000 barrels, Middle East conflict restricts actual output increase.

Microsoft and Google compete to sign long-term DRAM deals with SK Hynix, multi-trillion won contracts imminent. AI demand remains strong, after doubling in Q1, SamsungDRAM prices to rise another 30% in Q2.

On the eve of its IPO, OpenAI undergoes “major management overhaul”: CMO resigns, AGI chief ‘on sick leave’, COO rotates roles.

GPT-6 leaked: rumored to launch April 14, performance up 40%, 2 million token context, internally described as the “last 20% sprint to AGI.”

Anthropicblocks ‘lobster’: From 3pm April 4, Claude subscription quotas cannot be used in OpenClaw.

Market Closing Report

Europe and U.S. stock markets: Closed.

A Shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 3880.10, down 1.00%. Shenzhen Component at 13352.90, down 0.99%. ChiNext at 3149.60, down 0.73%.

Bond Market: 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6 bps to 3.86%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 5 bps.

Commodities: Closed.

Top News Details

Major Global Events

Trump threatens again: “April 7 will be Iran’s power plant day and bridge day”, “open that damned strait!” On social media, Trump said “April 7 will be Iran’s power plant day and bridge day,” hinting at fierce strikes on Iran’s power plants and bridges. He added: “Open that damned strait or you will live in hell—just wait and see!”

Trump warns Iran: “48 hours left”, Iran’s military responds “make the aggressors pay”, war escalates to Gulf “infrastructure”? U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, Trump issues 48 hour ultimatum, demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, or face “disaster.” Iran strikes back forcefully, releasing eight strategic bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan as potential targets for retaliation; global energy security faces unprecedented threat.

Some U.S. officials believe the Iran war will enter phase two. U.S. officials privately discuss that the military operation codenamed “Epic Fury” will soon enter its second stage. Trump’s aides have suggested including Iran’s power plants and bridges as legitimate military targets. Defense Secretary Hagseth advised Trump to bomb roads to hamper Iran's transport of missile and drone manufacturing materials. Some officials refer to this upcoming phase as “Epic Fury II,” though it is not yet official.

No public appearances since Wednesday! Trump ‘unusually’ low-key, worked all weekend—skipping Mar-a-Lago. With the 48-hour Iran ultimatum counting down and U.S. military pilot missing, Trump broke his routine, canceled his weekend at Mar-a-Lago, and hasn't appeared publicly since Wednesday. The White House says he is “working non-stop” in the Oval Office.Despite a strong stance on social media, his silence on search and rescue progress has caused widespread speculation about U.S. military actions and negotiation strategies.

Wednesday’s speech “unsuccessful”, dissatisfied with “media coverage”, frustrated by “war aftermath”! Trump considering “large-scale cabinet reshuffle”. Due to the U.S.-Iran war and soaring oil prices, Trump’s poll numbers fell to 36%. After the poor performance of the April 1 nationwide speech, the White House is planning a major cabinet reshuffle, with Attorney General Bondi already resigned, Intelligence Director Gabbard and Commerce Secretary Lutnik are also at risk. Trump is trying to win back political ground before the midterms by adjusting personnel.

Iran war ongoing, Hagseth suddenly purges Army leadership, suspected preemptive move against “power grab”. U.S. Defense Secretary Hagseth abruptly fired Army Chief of Staff Randy George and two others during the Iran war. Media cited several current and former government officials saying Hagseth feared Army Secretary Driscoll—a close friend of Vice President Vance—would replace him. The White House currently blocks firing Driscoll directly, so Hagseth targets those around him.

Iraq exempted, French and Japanese ships pass, Hormuz passage hits post-war high. Iran’s military announced an exemption for “brother nation” Iraq’s shipping restrictions, possibly releasing up to 3 million barrels daily of Iraqi oil exports. Meanwhile, the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz has hit a post-war high, with French container ships and Japanese LNG carriers passing through, and energy markets are repricing this geopolitical game.

Iranian official sets conditions for reopening Hormuz strait: first, use accumulated ship tolls to compensate Iran’s war losses. Mehdi Tabatabai, Iran’s deputy director for news and communications, gave a tough statement on regional issues and Hormuz passage. Tabatabai attacked Trump for “desperation and rage” and said his actions have led to regional war. He proposed Hormuz will only fully reopen once a new legal regime is established and accumulated tolls are used to compensate Iran for past war losses.

Iranian media publish images of “downed” US military aircraft: wreckage everywhere, smoke drifting. Iran claims that during joint operations by the IRGC, Iranian Army, Basij militia, and law enforcement, enemy aircraft including two “Black Hawk” helicopters and a C-130 transport that invaded southern Isfahan were hit. U.S. media say the missing U.S. pilots were rescued, with two stranded transport planes destroyed by U.S. forces during the rescue.

Iran claims downing US rescue plane! Rescued pilot injured, Trump reveals more details: pilot parachuted into mountains, US sent dozens of aircraft, two rescues, no US casualties. Trump said that the US military carefully monitored the pilot’s position and “meticulously planned the rescue.” After ejection, the pilot landed in Iran’s mountains, and as per Trump’s orders, US sent dozens of aircraft and helicopters “carrying the world’s deadliest weapons.” “He’s injured, but will recover.”

Iran: US rescue mission “failed”! US media: rescued pilot sent to Kuwait, evaded search in mountains for over 24 hours, only armed with a handgun, local altitude 4400m. US media reported that the rescued pilot survived over 24 hours evading Iranian searches in the mountains, equipped only with a handgun. Hundreds of US special forces participated in the rescue, with firefights occurring. Two transport aircraft malfunctioned during the rescue in Iran and were subsequently destroyed by US forces who continued with three new planes.

US-Israel “bombed” Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant four times! Russia “urgently evacuates 198 staff”, Iranian FM: if nuclear leak happens, neighboring countries are at risk. Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant was bombed by U.S. and Israel for the fourth time on April 4, causing one security death and drastically increasing nuclear leak risk, prompting Russia to evacuate staff. Iran’s FM warned that Gulf capital cities would face catastrophic fallout if a leak occurred; Russia strongly condemned the attack.

US-Israel airstrikes hit Iran petrochemical hub! US embassy in Saudi Arabia attacked, Iran blames Israel; Iran warns Middle Eastern countries: “if you don’t want to get hit, let US troops withdraw”. Iran says enemy airstrikes on Mahshahr petrochemical zone hit Fajr 1 and 2, Rijel, and Amir Kabir companies. Iranian armed forces warned that if the US continues to threaten Iran’s bridges, power plants, and energy infrastructure, Iran will “counter more strongly and decisively.”

OPEC+ plans symbolic quota increase to 206,000 barrels, Middle East conflict hinders actual production increase. OPEC+ core members plan to raise May output target by about 206,000 barrels/day, same as increase passed at March 1 meeting. Due to Iran war damage to Persian Gulf oil shipments, this move is largely symbolic rather than a signal of real output increase.

Microsoft and Google race to sign long-term DRAM deals with SK Hynix, multi-trillion won contracts imminent. Driven by AI infrastructure needs, Microsoft and Google are negotiating three-year DRAM supply deals with SK Hynix. The contracts break industry convention, include floor price guarantees and 10%-30% advance deposits, aiming to secure supply. With DDR4 prices rising nearly tenfold in a year, memory chips have become strategic reserve assets, boosting Samsung and Hynix’s Q1 performance to a record high.

AI demand continues to support, after doubling in Q1, Samsung Q2 DRAM price rises another 30%. “Today is always the cheapest day.” Taking early 2025 DRAM price as reference, after two rounds of price hikes, Q2 supply prices are now 2.6x the baseline price.

Memory spending soars, from 8% to 30%! SemiAnalysis predicts that by 2026, memory spending will account for about 30% of hyperscale data center capital expenditure, far higher than the 8% in 2023, likely rising further in 2027. In just four years, with DRAM prices unimaginably high and HBM still severely short, memory costs will nearly quadruple in share.

Amazon data center hit: can moving to space avoid missiles? Iranian missiles strike Amazon data center; a wild idea emerges: move computing power to space. Google, Musk, and Bezos have already entered the race; a “orbital computing” arms race is heating up.But missiles can target more than the ground—fixed orbits, precisely predictable, servers in space could be more vulnerable than on earth.

Oracle Dubai building hit by weapon fragments. Dubai media confirms that Oracle's office building in Dubai Internet City was hit by air defense intercept debris, no casualties. Earlier, the IRGC listed 18 American tech companies, including Oracle, as “legitimate targets”, and actually struck AWS data centers in March.

On the eve of IPO, OpenAI “major management overhaul”: CMO resigns, AGI chief ‘on sick leave’, COO rotates roles. At the critical point of $122B fundraising, $852B valuation and prepping IPO, OpenAI’s management keeps changing: COO leads special projects, CMO resigns for cancer treatment, AGI CEO takes weeks’ sick leave due to neuroimmune disease and is temporarily replaced by co-founder Greg Brockman managing products.

Leaked OpenAI “equity structure chart”: Microsoft’s “$13B investment” rises to “$228.3B”. A purported leaked document shows OpenAI’s valuation at $852B this round, Microsoft’s $13B investment now valued around $228.3B—over 17x return; SoftBank’s $64.6B input now worth $99.3B; Nvidia’s return about flat. CEO Sam Altman has no equity whatsoever.

GPT-6 leaked. OpenAI internal leaks: code-named “Potato” GPT-6 rumored to launch April 14, performance up 40%, 2 million token context, described internally as the ‘last 20% sprint to AGI’. GPT-Image 2 also stuns, with photorealistic output. Altman axes Sora, bets on computing power—this AI gamble has no retreat.

Anthropic blocks “lobster”: from 3pm April 4, Claude subscription quota can no longer be used for OpenClaw. Anthropic says through extra usage packages (now discounted) or Claude API keys, “lobster” OpenClaw can still be used. Affected users get compensation points and can request refunds. Analysts see this as a shift to volume-based business model, as well as steering users to its own products.

‘Popular chip research platform’ SemiAnalysis sued by ‘former core employee’: pushed ‘material non-public information’, “CEO’s personal interests” involved. Semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis faces a legal battle. Former staff accuse the company of mandatory inclusion of major non-public information (MNPI) in models, questioning CEO’s private investments mix with business; the company counters with trade secret theft and defamation. This case raises core business compliance issues—if MNPI allegations are true, research independence and financial legal risks loom large.

US private credit funds face “industry-wide stampede crisis”: when redemption fails, what is “NAV” really worth? US private credit sector saw a wave of redemptions, Cliffwater and other giants are deeply affected. The main problem is: when underlying funds limit redemption, upper funds still use inflated “official NAV,” causing a huge gap between book value and market reality. This accounting loophole triggers a severe trust crisis, may accelerate an industry stampede and wipe out investors.

Featured Research

Possibly the most complete “US decision details” of the Iran war so far. Iran war decisions exposed: Trump cleared the field and created fake intelligence to confuse leakers; VP Vance was the strongest internal opponent; the Secretary of Defense caught off guard by Iran’s large-scale counterattack. As the war progresses, the chief of staff worries the president is blinded by “victory videos” daily, urges more honest internal briefings. Now, Trump is urgently seeking an “exit route,” but how to end it gracefully is the core dilemma.

Ex-Lehman trader: private credit is “this cycle’s subprime”, avoid “crowded” tech stocks, embrace “scarce” resource stocks. Former Lehman trader McDonald says private credit is “this cycle’s subprime,” ratings chaos and incentive distortion replaying the 2008 story, insurance companies are the biggest buyers. Meanwhile, Nasdaq100 loses $4 trillion, Microsoft drops 28%, Nvidia drops 19%, funds flow fast to natural gas, gold, coal and other hard assets—he believes this “great migration” is only in phase two or three.

Hong Hao: gold will keep dropping, then rebound, could double—not this year; A shares may drop to 3800 before rising. The gold story isn’t over—another 5,000 years.

Domestic Companies

Foxconn Q1 revenue up 29.68% YoY, Q2 expected to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Foxconn’s March revenue hit NT$803.7 billion, up 34.9% MoM and 45.57% YoY, setting a record. Strong shipments for AI cloud products and new product stocking offset seasonal lows. Q1 total revenue up 29.68% YoY. Q2 expected to maintain double growth, but warns of risks from Middle East war and global political/economic instability.

Overseas Macro

Surprise rebound! US March nonfarm adds 178,000 jobs, highest in over a year, unemployment rate unexpectedly down to 4.3%! The March report has limited value in assessing Iran war impact. Middle East tensions driving rapid energy price increases, reinforcing Fed's inflation risk vigilance. ‘New Fed News’ says, job growth relieves Fed’s dilemma, market cuts rate-cut bets.

US March services PMI final value falls to 49.8, first contraction since 2023. Middle East conflict and tariffs push US economy into stagnation combined with inflation: input costs rise most in a year, consumer price inflation may hit 4%, jobs decline for first time in over a year. Consumer services was hit hardest, composite PMI barely held the 50 threshold, overall GDP growth annualized to only ~0.5%.

Largest annual military budget increase since WWII! Trump administration seeks $1.5 trillion FY2027 defense budget, non-defense spending cut by 10%. Trump administration’s plan: $2.2 trillion discretionary spending for FY2027 including defense; military shipbuilding budget $65.8B, plan for 41 ships, $350B allocated for ammunition and defense industry expansion; $73B cut in non-defense, including $15B cut from renewable energy projects. The document says defense spending is near pre-WWII historic surge, aiming at current global security risks and military readiness. No ten-year deficit estimate given; energy and AI infrastructure are new focus, anti-fraud is balancing-budget highlight.

Sold 118 tons of gold in two weeks, worth $20B! Turkey sold almost 70 tons last week, highest since 2013. To cope with Iran war's energy bill surge and lira depreciation, Turkey’s central bank sold over 118 tons of gold in two weeks (worth $20B), equal to six years of accumulated reserves. Last week alone, about 70 tons were sold—the largest weekly drop since at least 2013.

Energy costs soar, Vietnam’s economic growth falls below 8%, “double digit target” hit by reality. Vietnam’s Q1 GDP up 7.83% YoY, lower than previous quarter (8.46%) and the annual target (10%), but better than market expectations. Manufacturing is the main driver, exports up 20.1%, trade surplus with US reached $33.9B. However, Middle East conflict has pushed energy costs up, March CPI up 4.65%, above government’s 4.5% cap.

Overseas Companies

Apple has become the biggest enemy of Vibe Coding entrepreneurs. Vibe Coding promises a future where anyone can create software. That future is coming, but on Apple’s turf, it needs a license first.

AI computing power fatal flaws: Broadcom director names “three bottlenecks”, capacity gap may last until 2027. Broadcom executive points out three core bottlenecks for AI supply chain: lasers, advanced wafer processes, and PCBs. With tech barriers and capacity pressure, small PCBs’ delivery cycles balloon to six months, laser yield less than 30%. Even if TSMC expands production massively, equipment lead time is 12-18 months, 2026 capacity already locked by large companies, new orders queued to 2027, so power shortage will become normalized.

Today’s Major Events Outlook

Qingming Festival holiday: Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchange closed.

Easter: major European financial markets closed.

US March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

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