Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | December 18, 2025

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | December 18, 2025

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Market Overview

Oracle reignites AI worries, crushing US stocks; Nasdaq drops nearly 2%, S&P 500 and Dow Jones mark four consecutive losses. Nvidia fell nearly 4%, Oracle over 5%, CoreWeave over 7%. Tesla dropped over 4%, parting from record highs. Paramount, whose acquisition by Warner's board was rejected, dropped over 5%. Medline, marking the year's biggest IPO, surged 41%. Micron rose over 6% at one point after earnings.

The dollar ended a two-day fall, bouncing from a more than two-month low. After UK CPI, expectations for the Bank of England cutting rates intensified, British bonds rebounded, and the pound hit a one-week low.

Cryptocurrencies surged early in US stock trading then pulled back, Bitcoin dropped more than 5% from the intraday high and fell below $86,000. Ethereum at one point dropped nearly 8% from its intraday high.

Gold surged over 1% intraday, nearing a seven-week high; silver futures jumped over 6% to a record high. With intensifying geopolitical risks, crude oil reversed a four-day loss and gained over 2% intraday, rebounding from a four-year low.

In the Asian session, the ChiNext Index rose over 3%, Muxi surged nearly 700%, computing hardware surged, financial stocks strengthened, broad-based ETFs saw heavy trading, lithium carbonate futures rose over 7%, platinum and palladium futures hit limits, Shanghai silver rose over 5%, and Hong Kong tech stocks broadly advanced.

Top News

Fed Governor Waller: There’s still 50-100bp room for rate cuts, but no need to rush. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Any concern about Hassett's qualification for Fed chair is absurd.

Trump deploys “the largest fleet in South American history” to block Venezuela’s sanctioned oil tankers; threatens new sanctions on Russia; Brent oil returns to $60. Insiders say US and Russia will hold talks in Miami this weekend.

Oracle’s $10 billion data center financing encountered obstacles, Blue Owl withdrew, the company said the deal is still on track, overall progressing as expected. Oracle dropped 5.4%, five-year CDS hit the highest since January 2009.

Micron beat on both earnings and guidance, raises capital expenditure to $20 billion, says memory/storage chip shortage will persist through 2026 and longer, stock surged over 6% after hours.

Months of challenging OpenAI! Google launches more efficient Gemini 3 Flash, default model for the app, immediately powering Search. Google announces “Sun Chaser” project, planning to deploy AI data centers in space by 2027.

Xiaomi suddenly unveils new model focused on “ultimate cost performance”, Luo Fuli: “This is only our second step on the AGI roadmap.”

The battle for “first AI large model stock” heats up! MiniMax and Zhipu AI both pass HKEX hearing.

The contest for “China’s Nvidia” heats up! Muxi soared 700% on its debut, market cap nears Moore Threads.

Resumes trading Thursday! CICC’s mergers with Dongxing, Cinda finalized: swap price set at 36.91 yuan/share.

The 2025 New Fortune Best Analysts list released! GF’s Guo Lei team again wins Macro Champion, GF’s Liu Chenming team ranked first in strategy.

Market Close

US & European Stocks: S&P 500 down 1.16%, at 6721.43. Dow down 0.47%, at 47885.97. Nasdaq down 1.81%, at 22693.323. Europe’s STOXX 600 index unchanged at 579.79.

A-Shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 3870.28 up 1.19%. Shenzhen Component at 13224.51 up 2.40%. ChiNext closed at 3175.91 up 3.39%.

Bond Market: US 10-year Treasury yield up 0.59bps to 4.1509%. 2-year US Treasury yield down 0.41bps to 3.4829%.

Commodities: COMEX gold up 0.96% to $4374.00/oz. COMEX silver up 5.19% to $66.610/oz. WTI January crude oil up 1.21% to $55.94/barrel. Brent February crude up 1.29% to $59.68/barrel.

 

News Details

Global Headlines

Fed Governor Waller: There’s still 50-100bps of rate cut space, no need to rush. Waller said as the job market cools and inflation is under control, the Fed still has 50-100bps of rate cut space, but no need to rush, and rates will move gradually and steadily towards neutral. He thinks since jobs are not showing a cliff-like drop and inflation expectations are stable, conditions are ripe for mild rate cuts; the Fed will balance between growth and controlling inflation.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Any concerns about Hassett’s qualification for Fed chair are absurd. Asked about Trump’s end of November comments about knowing his pick but still interviewing, Bessent replied, "Maybe he means—maybe I'm his pick, but I couldn't accept at that time."

Oil surges, Brent back over $60! Trump deploys 'largest fleet in South American history' to block Venezuela’s sanctioned tankers. Reports say Trump announced a full naval blockade of Venezuela and labeled Maduro’s government a “terrorist organization,” immediately pushing international oil prices up; both WTI and Brent rose over 1% intraday. Venezuela condemned the US for “resource theft” and said it would appeal to the UN.

Just announced blockade of Venezuela, Trump threatened new sanctions on Russia, Brent back over $60! Insiders revealed the US is considering sanctions against so-called “shadow fleet” tankers transporting Russian oil, as well as traders brokering such deals. These measures are being prepared in case Putin refuses Ukraine peace proposals, and could be enacted as soon as this week.

  • Insiders say US and Russia to hold talks in Miami this weekend. CCTV reporters learned on Dec. 17th that two insiders said US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend; plans are still in the works. One insider said Russia’s delegation includes RDIF president Dmitriev; US side includes special envoy for Middle East Wietkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner.

Oracle’s $10 billion data center financing hits obstacles as Blue Owl withdraws, company claims deal still on track. Blue Owl had discussed investing in a planned 1 GW data center in Michigan with Oracle and lenders. Talks stalled, Blue Owl’s up-to-$10b financing and large equity investment could not proceed. Oracle confirmed Blue Owl’s exit but said equity transaction negotiations and overall project still progressing as planned. Oracle dropped 5.4% Wednesday; 5-year CDS at highest since Jan 2009.

Strong chip demand, Micron beats both earnings and guidance, raises capex, stock up over 6% after hours. Amid surging AI data center demand and tightening memory chip supply, Micron delivered a much better-than-expected Q1 report and issued above-market Q2 guidance for revenue, margin, and EPS, saying chip shortfall will persist through 2026 and beyond, raising FY2026 capex from $18 billion to $20 billion.

After months challenging OpenAI! Google releases more efficient Gemini 3 Flash, App default model, immediately improves Search. In agent programming benchmarks, Gemini 3 Flash surpasses Gemini 3 Pro. The new Flash model maintains inference power close to Gemini 3 Pro, runs at three times the speed of Gemini 2.5 Pro, and costs only a quarter of Gemini 3 Pro; pricing is $0.5/million input tokens, $3/million output tokens—just above Gemini 2.5 Flash, but better performance than 2.5 Pro and three times faster.

AI compute “going offworld”? Google announces “Sun Chaser” plan, plans to deploy AI data centers in space by 2027. Google’s “space data center” proposal aims to use solar satellite clusters to alleviate AI compute and energy bottlenecks. But high costs, maintenance, orbital collision and regulation are major challenges. After Microsoft’s undersea project setback, this is a radical bet on AI expansion.

Xiaomi unveils new model for “ultimate cost-performance”, Luo Fuli: “This is only our AGI map’s second step”. $0.1/million tokens, 150 tokens/sec! Xiaomi’s new MiMo-V2-Flash model scored 73.4% in programming, on par with DeepSeek-V3.2. Luo Fuli said, “This is just the second step in our AGI roadmap.” Morgan Stanley says Xiaomi aims to transform its vast “People-Car-Home” ecosystem through this high-performance model.

Battle for “first large AI model stock” heats up! MiniMax and Zhipu AI both pass HKEX hearing. If progress continues, these two companies will be the fastest examples to pass hearing since the new Hong Kong IPO filing system for mainland firms. MiniMax reportedly plans to list in Hong Kong January next year.

Battle for “China’s Nvidia” heats up! Muxi surges 700% its first day, market cap near Moore Threads. Muxi, founded by senior AMD engineers, focuses on general compute and AI power, with strong CUDA compatibility to lower switching costs and speed up commercialization; Moore Threads, founded by former Nvidia exec Zhang Jianzhong, is more like a full-featured Nvidia GPU, focusing on own ecosystem and full function. Muxi expects break-even in 2026, ahead of Moore Threads’ 2027. Who will achieve fully commercialized domestic GPUs first? This war is just beginning.

Resumes trading Thursday! CICC finalizes merger with Dongxing and Cinda: swap price set at 36.91 yuan/share. CICC will absorb Dongxing and Cinda, and all three stocks resume trading Dec 18, making this the biggest broker sector merger recently. The finalized plan has boosted the sector in advance. Based on data for the first three quarters of 2025, post-merger revenue for CICC estimated at 27.4b yuan, capital base rises sharply, making it the fourth broker with over 1 trillion yuan in assets and net assets fourth in the industry.

2025 New Fortune Best Analysts List! GF’s Guo Lei team again Macro Champion, GF’s Liu Chenming team first in Strategy. In fixed income research, Huatai’s Zhang Jiqiang ranked first, holding seven consecutive wins since 2019. In individual awards, Zheshang’s Qiu Guanhua won Master Analyst, Changjiang’s Wu Bohua and Guolian Minsheng’s Guan Quansen were “Hundred Star Analysts.”

Important Surveys

Fed’s latest survey: Company CFOs expect US prices to rise 4.2% next year, tariffs still biggest concern. Survey shows US CFOs expect 2026 inflation at 4.2%, much higher than the Fed’s 2% target. Tariffs and cost rises seen as main drivers, business inflation expectation remains sticky. Meanwhile, business confidence slips, mild growth outlook, risk of prolonged high inflation increasing.

BofA fund manager survey: Most optimistic in 4.5 years from stocks to commodities, “MAG 7” is most crowded trade. The December BofA survey shows global fund managers are most optimistic in 4.5 years, cash at record low, big flows into US stocks, tech, and commodities, expecting “soft landing”. Still, extreme bullishness triggers BofA’s contrarian “sell signal”; AI bubble and crowded trades remain key risks.

UBS corporate survey: 60% of firms choose to “build” their AI rather than buy, only 5% of "AI agents" landed. Despite ongoing heat for AI, enterprise AI large scale rollouts remain slow. UBS latest survey shows only 17% have achieved scale AI productization, up only a bit from March’s 14%. 60% choose to self-build AI instead of buy. Notably, only 5% have rolled out “AI agents” at scale. Survey also finds AI hasn’t led to mass layoffs—40% say AI will grow headcount.

Domestic Macro

Jan-Nov, China public budget revenue up 0.8% YoY, expenditure up 1.4%, stamp duty on stock trading up 70.7%. Jan-Nov, national public budget revenue was 20.0516 trillion yuan, up 0.8%. Major taxes: real estate tax 471.4 billion yuan, up 10.8%; vehicle purchase tax 181.4b, down 17.4%; securities stamp duty 185.5b, up 70.7%.

Market watchdog: Platform demanding merchants guarantee “lowest price on the web” may be monopoly. Xinhua reports some platforms require in-platform merchants not to price above competing platforms. The new Anti-monopoly Guide for Internet Platforms says requiring “lowest on the web” may be abuse of market dominance or lead to monopoly agreements. Guide also flags “algorithm collusion” and calls for platforms to audit algorithms, build anti-monopoly detection to stop it at the source.

All of Hainan to close customs on Thursday. Hainan free trade port will launch full customs closure from December 18, 2025, key is liberalizing “one line” and tightening “second line”. Lowering taxes, simplifying customs, expanding openness, promoting trade/investment liberalization, cutting business and resident costs. Customs closure doesn't mean isolation, but higher openness, helping Hainan reach international high-level trading port by 2035.

Domestic Companies

OpenAI expert Yao Shunyu appointed Chief AI Scientist at Tencent. OpenAI scientist and Tsinghua “Yao class” alum Yao Shunyu joins Tencent as Chief AI Scientist in CEO/President’s office, reports to President Lau Chiping. Tencent also upgrades org, creating AI Infra division, etc, strengthening AI large model foundations. Yao is an expert in agent AI; his work ReAct and Thought Tree cited over 4,000 times. He says AI has reached "second half," “evaluation is more important than training,” key is defining problems and translating AI power to quantifiable value.

Overseas Macro

Swiss-US trade tension eases further, Novartis, Roche may reach US drug pricing deals. White House to announce, as soon as Friday, pricing deals with Novartis and Roche easing Swiss-US trade tensions. Pfizer, AstraZeneca and others have struck similar deals before. Pharma firms will agree to price cuts for some drugs in exchange for tariff relief and looser regulation.

Focus for next year: What will Trump offer for US election? Goldman: cut tariffs and fiscal stimulus! Goldman’s Alec Phillips expects by end-2026 effective US tariff rate will be about 2 percentage points below now, but still 9.5 points above early 2025. Phillips also says second stimulus is hard, but housing policy support measures may be coming.

Key central bank decisions Thursday, UK November CPI falls faster than expected, fourth rate cut this year expected. UK November inflation unexpectedly dropped to 3.2% as food/services cooled and job market weakened, confirming slowdown. Markets bet Bank of England will cut rates for the fourth time this year Thursday, opening door for more the next year. Fiscal budget curbs inflation short term, but monetary-fiscal coordination uncertain.

On eve of decision, Japan policy advisor: Bank of Japan shouldn’t raise rates too soon. Before the BOJ meeting, government/BOJ split emerges. Former vice governor Wakatebe Masazumi warns against premature rate hikes, thinks fiscal/growth measures should be used to lift neutral rate first; seen as urging BOJ to move slower. Still, markets bet on 25bp hike this week.

Overseas Companies

Reports: Apple in talks with Indian chip firms for iPhone assembly and packaging. Apple is in early talks with CG Semi in India for iPhone component packaging, possibly Apple’s first chip packaging move in India. May be aim to shift much of US-destined iPhone production to India by end-2026. Chip type undecided but may begin with display chips.

Amazon in talks to invest $10b+ in OpenAI, will use AWS chips. Amazon discussing at least $10 billion OpenAI investment, which could boost OpenAI’s valuation above $500B. As part of deal, OpenAI will use Amazon’s Trainium chips to reduce Nvidia dependence. Due to Microsoft’s exclusivity, Amazon can’t resell OpenAI models; partnership to focus on infrastructure and possible e-commerce ties.

IPO countdown! SpaceX officially enters IPO "quiet period", valuation may top $1.5 trillion. SpaceX begins IPO “quiet period”, staff must follow SEC rules and not hype IPO plans. Company plans IPO in 2026, raising $30 billion-plus, target valuation $1.5 trillion—may be largest IPO ever. Funds will support Starship rocket, space AI data centers, and lunar base building. But IPO timing and value still uncertain.

Elon Musk: xAI to achieve AGI as soon as 2026, company will beat rivals if it survives next 2-3 years. Musk is optimistic on his AI firm xAI; said recently, if they last next 2-3 years, xAI will beat rivals; xAI could deliver AGI (artificial general intelligence) within years—possibly as soon as 2026. Insiders described the meeting as “fast-paced, uplifting.”

Aiming to be the Costco of healthcare, Medline raises $6.26b in largest US IPO this year, surges over 40% on debut. Medline made the biggest US IPO in four years and 5th largest private equity-backed IPO ever. At closing, Medline was valued over $66B, almost double Blackstone’s PE buyout price four years ago.

Industries/Concepts

1. Transformers | Sina Finance reports US faces “power shortage” restricting AI compute expansion. Shortage is tightest for transformers. US transformer delivery wait is up from 30-60 weeks historically to 115-130 weeks now, with large transformers at 2.3-4 years. Demand is tight but supply slow to ramp, takes about 2 years, US transformer shortage spreading.

Comment: Analysts say North American power shortage is a clear trend due to AI, with hard capacity and energy shortfalls by 2026/7 projected, overall power system impact will intensify, and shortage signals likely to persist. Solving the shortage requires faster buildout of energy and grid, with transformer/high-voltage DC (HVDC & SST) demand poised for high growth. China’s complete supply chain, cost advantage and UL/CSA certification breakthroughs mean Chinese transformer makers may fill the gap, with orders expected to surge.

2. Brain-Computer Interface | CCTV reported 17th that the Chinese Academy of Sciences Brain Science and Intelligence Technology Innovation Center, with domestic research and hospitals, achieved a breakthrough in a second clinical trial for invasive brain-computer interface, moving from 2-D screen cursor control to physical 3-D world interaction. Users can now use mind power to control phones and computers nearly as fast as normal people and initially control embodied robots.

Comment: 2025 will see notable progress in China’s BCI industry, with breakthroughs in key tech, applications, and industry ecology, laying a solid base for large-scale and quality growth. The NMPA issued a registration for invasive BCI for addiction recently, China’s first and the world’s first for mental illness, showing global lead. As BCI achieves medical breakthroughs—helping paralyzed patients regain movement—the market is poised for rapid growth. CCID expects China’s BCI market to surpass 5.5b yuan by 2027, McKinsey says $40–145 billion by 2030–2040 globally. BCI is at a key point for clinical translation; more breakthroughs will speed up broad commercial adoption.

3. On-device AI | ByteDance's volcano engine will hold its annual FORCE conference Dec 18-19. Volcengine's new Doubao large model will launch, with upgraded agent dev tools, agent ecosystem expansion, and extensive industry AI practices. The highlight is nearly 100 AI hardware products to debut, fueling an on-device AI boom.

Comment: China’s on-device AI market is at starting acceleration. Scale was less than 200 billion yuan in 2023, forecast to top 1.9 trillion by 2028, 58% annual growth. Drivers: stronger hardware, expanded application, policy support. Byte's Doubao user base over 160 million, with 800k added daily. The FORCE conference is China’s most influential AI event; it not only spotlights ByteDance’s model strength but drives deep AI applications and innovation nationwide.

4. Coal | NDRC, MIIT, MEE and others released 2025 key sector benchmark standards for clean and efficient coal. Call for ramping up policy use to support coal clean use, prioritizing financial support for qualifying projects, and guiding/attracting social capital. Calls for strengthened lending to green projects, tax and other incentives, tech upgrades, and more to improve total coal cleanliness and efficiency.

5. Sodium-Ion Batteries | The Paper reports CATL’s new sodium battery will go into mass production and ship in Dec 2025, debuting in “chocolate” swap cars. These will be the world’s first mass-produced sodium-ion EV batteries. Energy density reaches 175Wh/kg, the world’s highest for sodium batteries, rivaling LFP; supports 5C charging, 500km range, >10k cycle life and sharply lower maintenance costs. Intrinsically safer by avoiding combustible failure modes.

Comment: With lithium carbonate at 100,000 yuan/ton, sodium batteries keep a 15% cost edge. With lithium recovery and sodium tech iteration, the industry is moving from R&D to commercial breakthrough, with 2026 a tipping point for production and shipment expansion.

6. Large Aircraft | Global Times says aircraft maintenance in Hainan free trade port is booming due to policy bonuses; maintenance bases are nearly booked out for next 3 years, with capacity of 700 planes/year. After customs closure, more Hainan-specific policies will be announced.

Comment: Hainan FTZ’s location gives access to 21 countries and 47% of the world’s population within 4 hours, and 59 countries/67% in 8 hours. Thanks to free trade policy, airlines sending planes can avoid import duty, refuel bonded aviation oil, and stock bonded materials, saving 10–15% costs and time. Industrial boom driven by policy, plus Hainan’s open rights: only province allowing 5th, 7th, and stopover “cabotage” traffic rights. Cumulatively, 14 out-of-country traffic routes opened. After customs closure, all of 7th freedom opens, letting foreign airlines operate Hainan–third-country routes solo.

7. Robots | Sichuan Embodied Humanoid Robot Co. announced the world’s first humanoid robot focused on emotion-interaction: "Aiqiu-AIQ". Designed after the local dragon lizard, it uses a “emotion-language-action” large model and will integrate a self-developed multimodal emotion-computing engine to understand and react to user emotions. Can sense voice, expression, and more, recognize feelings and respond in matching speech and movement for real-world social needs, raising interaction accuracy and the stability of long-term companionship.

Comment: The world’s first humanoid robot featuring emotion interaction, “Aiqiu–AIQ”, is a revolutionary innovation in interaction logic, scenario adaptation, and technical route, likely to quickly draw industry focus and intense market attention.

8. Phosphate Fertilizer | Guancha reports that under NDRC’s direction, key phosphate fertilizer makers met to analyze the market and work for supply and price stability, with companies urged to keep high rates, not reduce production, and not export before Aug 2026, to boost domestic supply.

Comment: Phosphate is a key spring planting fertilizer, and its supply and price directly affect farm incentives and the year’s food production. Since last fall, sulfur prices have soared, nearly 200% year-on-year. Since Nov, ammonium phosphate prices jumped 500 yuan/ton, mainstream at 6500 yuan/ton in Dec, up 12.07% YoY, still running high.

9. Hard Drives | The latest supply chain report shows HDD prices now up about 4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, biggest rise in 8 quarters. Suppliers warned this is not a short-term fluctuation; persistent upward pressure on prices expected.

Comment: Analysts say China’s PC procurement strategy is shifting toward domestic CPUs and OS, unintentionally lifting HDD demand, as some users worry about SSD “bit decay” and prefer HDDs for long-term data. Morgan Stanley maintained “overweight” on Seagate and expects HDDs to be undersupplied through 2027.

10. Satellite Internet | Fast Technology reports UK’s Ofcom just announced a new framework allowing mobile-satellite direct connection service using mobile bands. Mobile operators can partner with satellite firms by amending wireless spectrum licenses, providing satellite signal service with current mobile spectrum. Users are exempt from extra radio licenses to use such signals.

Comment: Direct mobile-to-satellite service is an important inflection point for global telecom, reshaping the boundaries and value chain. As technology accelerates to consumer sector, satellite direct-connect features are spreading to main and not just flagship smartphones. Powered by homegrown chip breakthroughs, low-Earth network buildout and maturing 3GPP NTN standards, satellite comms are moving from niche to mass use, especially for emergency, outdoor, rescue, etc.

Today's Key Previews

China's RMB share of global payments in November via SWIFT.

US November CPI.

Initial US jobless claims from last week.

US October net long-term capital inflows.

Hainan Free Trade Port officially starts full customs closure operation.

ECB rate decision, President Lagarde holds press conference.

Bank of England rate decision.

Byte Volcano Engine FORCE conference.

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