Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | February 20, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Technology stocks dragged down US stocks, ending the two-day winning streak for the three major US indices. Financial sector led declines in the S&P 500, asset manager Blue Owl, which restricted redemptions from its funds, fell nearly 6%; Walmart, with a weaker annual guidance, fell over 1%; Apple dropped more than 1%, the worst performer among the "Tech Seven Giants"; chip and software stocks retreated, Western Digital fell 4%, Cadence Design shed nearly 3%.

Pan-European and UK stocks dropped from record highs; Airbus, which issued weak earnings guidance, plummeted nearly 7%, while Renault fell over 3%; Nestlé, with positive guidance, rose nearly 4%.

After US unemployment data, US Treasury yields neared daily highs; the US dollar broke through 98 intraday, hitting a near four-week high. Offshore yuan fell for a third straight session, dropping over 100 points intraday and breaking below 6.90; Bitcoin dipped below $66,000 intraday before rebounding over 2%.

US-Iran tensions combined with an unexpected drop in US EIA inventories drove crude oil up over 2% intraday, reaching a six-month high. Divergence on rate cuts curbed gold’s rally, with gold prices once turning lower intraday, struggling to breach $5,000.

Headlines

Trump: The US and Iran must reach a meaningful agreement, or else "bad things" will happen. Expects to know in about ten days whether a deal with Iran is possible.

Is the Trump camp’s conviction for rate cuts wavering? Fed Governor Milan: Improving labor market could mean fewer rate cuts this year.

US December trade deficit widens, making last year one of the largest deficits since 1960.

Alternative asset management giant Blue Owl restricts redemptions and sells loans, shares fell as much as 10%, sparking concerns about the $1.8 trillion private credit market.

Jensen Huang teases “never-before-seen” chip products, next-gen Feynman architecture may be the focus. Last week, he hosted a banquet for SK Hynix engineers, personally toasted them, and urged “no delays in delivering HBM4.”

Samsung and SK Hynix “adjust strategies”, moving up production plans for new memory factories. Samsung shares hit a record high, reports say its HBM4 chips are set for a 30% price hike.

OpenAI finalizing new financing round: seeking up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation.

Foreign capital snaps up Japanese stocks—the largest weekly net stock purchases since 2014.

Market Close

European and US stock markets: S&P 500 down 0.28% to 6861.89; Dow Jones down 0.54% to 49,395.16; Nasdaq down 0.31% to 22,682.729; Europe STOXX 600 down 0.53% to 625.33.

A-shares closed.

Bond market: US 10-year Treasury yield down 0.96 basis points to 4.0731%. US 2-year yield up 0.62 basis points to 3.4657%.

Commodities: WTI March crude futures up 1.90% to $66.43/barrel; Brent April futures up 1.86% to $71.66/barrel. Spot gold up 0.42% to $4,998.50/oz; spot silver up 1.32% to $78.2375/oz.

Headline Details

Global Highlights

Action against Iran within ten days? Trump: The US and Iran must reach a meaningful agreement or “bad things” will happen. On Thursday, Trump said he expects to know in about ten days whether a deal with Iran is possible; Netanyahu warned Iran that Israel is "prepared for any situation" and stressed that Israel is “fighting side by side” with the US in response to threats. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said US military buildup in the Middle East indicates Iran's diplomatic window is closing. On Wednesday, reports said the US military is preparing for strikes against Iran as soon as this weekend. On Thursday, media reported Trump is considering limited strikes to force Iran to accept US nuclear deal demands.

US poised for strikes on Iran as early as this weekend—what about oil prices? Tensions between the US and Iran have flared, with the largest US air power buildup since the Iraq war in 2003. Unlike last year's brief 25-minute operation, this action could last weeks targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and missile depots. Markets are assessing supply disruption risks; in extreme cases, oil prices could breach $130. Despite escalating military threats, concerns over inflation during the election year makes some investors skeptical about whether the US will actually use force.
Is Trump “overconfident” or just posturing about Iran and oil prices? Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas states the White House shouldn’t assume future military operations will have no impact on the energy market simply because last year’s strikes didn’t trigger a spike in oil prices. Although US Energy Secretary Granholm attributes price stability to the “energy dominance agenda” and record output, market resilience doesn’t mean immunity. If the US misjudges Iran's red line for using oil as a weapon, Middle East energy infrastructure could be targeted in the next conflict.

Is the Trump camp’s conviction for rate cuts wavering? Fed Governor Milan: Improving labor market might mean fewer rate cuts this year. Milan said the latest data shows the job market is stronger than he previously expected and goods inflation is more persistent. Therefore, compared to two months ago, he no longer thinks the Fed should cut rates aggressively this year.

US December trade deficit widens—one of the largest annual deficits since 1960. Despite Trump administration efforts to narrow the huge US trade gap, annual trade imbalances have barely changed. For the year, the US trade deficit was $901.5 billion, down just 0.2% or $2.1 billion from 2024. The amount is just below the record deficit of $923.7 billion in 2022.

Warning sign for private credit? Blue Owl restricts redemptions and sells loans, stock hits 2.5-year low. Alternative asset manager Blue Owl Capital restricted quarterly redemptions of its private credit funds and sold loans at large scale to provide liquidity, raising concerns about risks in the $1.8 trillion private credit market. The stock plunged about 10% intraday Thursday, closed down 5.9%, dragging down peers, US large caps, and even European private equity. Redemptions in its OBDC II fund exceeded the 5% limit, so the firm sold loans near par value to return capital to investors. The industry’s concerns over valuation transparency, loan quality, and liquidity pressures have renewed. Meanwhile, Bank of America announced a $25 billion commitment to private credit, showing capital is still pouring into this fast-growing but controversial market.

Jensen Huang teases “never-before-seen” chip products, next-gen Feynman architecture in focus. Jensen Huang previewed that his GTC keynote this year will unveil chip products “the world has never seen.” Analysts believe these could be derivatives of the Rubin series or the more revolutionary Feynman architecture, with market expectations that Feynman will be deeply optimized for inference.

Last week, Jensen Huang hosted a banquet for SK Hynix engineers, personally toasted them, urged “on-time delivery of HBM4”—“It’s hard, but I believe in you”! Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang rarely “went in person” to host over 30 engineers at a Korean restaurant in Silicon Valley, urging SK Hynix to deliver the sixth-gen HBM4 on schedule. With Samsung first to ship and disrupting the field, this supply-chain battle over the next-gen AI chip Vera Rubin has entered full swing. Whether SK Hynix can defend its 55% market share depends on execution in coming months.

Samsung and SK Hynix “adjust strategies”, bring forward new memory plant production plans. SK Hynix is bringing forward its Yongin wafer fab test run to February or March next year, while Samsung moved the Pyeongtaek P4 plant’s production from Q1 next year to Q4 this year, three months earlier than planned. The change is due to severe shortages from AI data center expansion—main customers’ demand is satisfied only 60%. The supply crunch is expected to last until 2027, as demand growth continues to outpace supply.

Samsung shares hit record high! Reports: HBM4 chips set for up to 30% price hike. Korean media report Samsung is negotiating prices for next-gen HBM4 chips up to 30% higher than the previous generation, reaching about $700. The share price hit a record high after the news. Institutions believe AI memory supply remains tight and Samsung has regained pricing power in the high-end market.

Backing AI deals! OpenAI finalizing new round of funding at $830B valuation, seeking as much as $100B. OpenAI is seeking to raise $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation. SoftBank may lead with $30 billion, Amazon and Nvidia may invest $50 billion and $30 billion respectively, while Microsoft plans several billion. This is OpenAI’s first fundraising since last autumn’s corporate restructuring, and senior management has discussed a listing as early as Q4.

Awkward moment at India’s AI summit: OpenAI and Anthropic CEOs refused to hold hands in a group photo. At the India AI Summit group photo, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei stood side by side but refused to hold hands, which quickly went viral on social media. Competition between the two has intensified this year, with Anthropic’s Claude Code expanding rapidly, OpenAI poaching talent, and public debate over whether to run ads.

Foreign buying of Japanese stocks hits new weekly high since 2014! Expansionary fiscal policies from Sanae Takaichi, yen weakness benefiting exporters, and global investors seeking reliable returns outside the US all drove this capital inflow.

Research Highlights

Global fiscal stimulus: much ado about nothing? UBS expects only 8bp GDP growth boost in 2026. UBS research indicates the actual impact of global fiscal stimulus in 2026 is nearly neutral, boosting GDP by just 8 basis points. Despite high-profile legislative actions in the US, Japan, and Germany, the impact is limited due to slow execution and fiscal consolidation in emerging markets. The global economy will need endogenous drivers instead of relying on policy windfalls.

China Macro

In 2025, total profits of above-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises in China will exceed 500 billion yuan. According to Xinhua, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reported that profits for large non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises reached 528.45 billion yuan in 2025, up 25.6% year-on-year, a record high. Aluminum, gold, and copper performed strongly, with profit increases of 38 billion, 21.2 billion, and 17.7 billion yuan respectively. Their contributions to profit growth were 35%, 20%, and 16%.

Overseas Macro

No need to panic over crypto plunge? Trump family crypto platform hosts Mar-a-Lago summit, Wall Street softens stance. During the Mar-a-Lago event on Wednesday, formerly skeptical Goldman CEO David Solomon revealed he holds a small amount of Bitcoin in person. Franklin Templeton’s CEO, who once called Bitcoin a distraction, said he envisioned crypto companies collaborating with traditional financial institutions. Trump’s eldest son said his family’s stablecoin launched last year will help preserve dollar hegemony and called the traditional banking system a “Ponzi scheme.”

Hawkish expectations rise—most economists see BOJ hiking rates sooner, possibly as early as March. Expectations for BOJ rate hikes have moved earlier. The head of the Japanese Bankers Association recently stated the central bank could raise rates in March or April. A Reuters survey shows most economists expect policy rates to rise to 1% before the end of June, with consensus moving forward from September to the first half. Lagging inflation data makes the April meeting a challenge, with markets watching to see if Sanae Takaichi will push for continued low rates.

Yen and JGBs brace themselves—Takaichi cabinet set to announce BOJ committee nominees, doves may rise. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is about to nominate two central bank policy committee members, and the market is closely watching the signals. Most observers expect the new members to have reflationary tendencies, and if two doves are named, yen depreciation and bond market volatility could increase.

Territorial issues on the table—Russia-Ukraine game enters the 'deep water zone'. US, Russia, and Ukraine held new Geneva talks with territory issues on the agenda for the first time. All sides said the talks made progress and agreed to continue. Europe participated on the sidelines. Experts believe the talks have reached a deep stage, finally touching on the most sensitive territorial, security, and political issues.

Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol was sentenced to life in prison in the first instance for allegedly plotting a rebellion. According to CCTV News, on February 19, local time, Seoul Central District Court sentenced Yoon to life imprisonment for instigating rebellion.

Overseas Companies

Amazon revenue surpasses Walmart for the first time, both retail giants ramp up AI race. Amazon overtook Walmart as the world’s largest annual revenue company. Walmart announced on Thursday its latest fiscal year annual revenue was $713.2 billion, just below Amazon’s $716.9 billion. Both are taking different approaches in artificial intelligence: Amazon is making massive investments while Walmart relies more on tech partners.

OpenClaw sparks 'cheap host' demand, UK computer maker Raspberry Pi shares nearly double in three days. OpenClaw, an AI agent that can run locally on PCs, has driven a rush for “cheap hosts,” and British low-cost computer maker Raspberry Pi nearly doubled over three trading days, with market cap hitting £1 billion. Analysts say this is a classic “meme stock” surge: one viral post, a seemingly undervalued share price, and plenty of shorts to squeeze.

Today's Major Event Preview

US, Eurozone, UK, Japan February manufacturing, services, and composite PMI preliminaries.

US Q4 GDP.

US December personal income, consumption, and PCE price index.

US February University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

US December new home sales.

Japan January CPI.

US Supreme Court may announce ruling on Trump tariffs case.

Speeches by Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Dallas Fed President Logan.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market is risky; investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account any individual user's special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```