Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | January 16, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | January 16, 2026

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Market Overview

U.S. stocks rebound. The three main U.S. stock indices reversed two straight losses. TSMC’s earnings boost chip stocks, chip index closed up nearly 2%, TSMC U.S. shares closed up more than 4%, hitting an all-time high. Memory chip giant SanDisk up 5.5%, Nvidia up more than 2%, ASML European stocks up 6%; post-earnings, Goldman Sachs up 4.6%, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock up nearly 6%.

After U.S. unemployment data was released, U.S. Treasury yields accelerated their recovery; Dollar Index rebounded sharply to a six-week high. Offshore Renminbi rebounded over 100 points intraday, broke through 6.97, and hit a new 20-month high for the second time this week; cryptocurrencies fell back, Bitcoin plunged more than 2% from the day's high, falling below $96,000.

Metals party paused: Gold, silver, copper, and tin fell back from intraday record highs. Spot gold fell over 1% intraday, spot silver plunged over 7%, LME tin closed down nearly 3%; but silver futures turned higher and continued to close at new highs. Crude oil tumbled more than 4%, biggest drop in almost seven months, falling from three-month closing highs.

In Asian trading, turnover in A-shares shrank to just over one trillion yuan. TSMC’s major CAPEX guidance ignited computing hardware stocks, commercial space sector tumbled collectively, Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 1%, Trip.com plunged 20%.

Top News

PBOC decides to cut relending and rediscount rates; lowers monetary policy tool rates by 25 bp, says there is still room for RRR and rate cuts this year.

For all of 2025, Chinasocial financing incremental scale exceeds ¥35 trillion, financing methods other than loans and bonds account for over 50% of the increase; RMB loans increased by ¥16.27 trillion. PBOC: Keep social financing conditions relatively loose and guide reasonable financial aggregate growth; increased quota for tech innovation and transformation loans from ¥800 billion to ¥1.2 trillion.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp.: Will strive to break through reusable rocket technology in 2026.

Trump Administrationhas not yet imposed tariffs on key minerals, silver party pauses, spot silver dropped over 7% before narrowing most losses.

Trump: Although investigating Powell, no plans to directly dismiss him.

Job market remains resilient, U.S.first-time unemployment claims fell instead of rising to 198,000 last week, lowest since Nov. last year; Dollar rebounds to over one-month high.

Report: Bipartisan U.S. Congresspushes $2.5 billion key mineral strategic reserve plan.

U.S.carrier strike group heads to Middle East, Trump reportedly wants "quick victory", U.S. Treasuryannounces new Iran sanctions; Iranon highest alert, closes airspace for five hours, Iranian experts say about 2,000 missiles can cover U.S.-Israel bases; multiple airlines detour Iranian airspace.

U.S. Treasury: In November foreign investors’holdings of U.S. debt rebounded to a record high, Japanhit new high in more than three years, Chinahit new low since 2008.

Alibaba Qianwen APP launch event: Fully integrates Taobao, Alipay, Taobao Flash Sale and other Alibaba ecosystem services.

AI chip demand remains hot, TSMCQ4 net profit up 35% YoY, much higher than expected, 2025 CAPEX $40.9 billion; earnings call: Capacity very tight, CAPEX to increase significantly over next three years, 2026 CAPEX guidance sharply increased to as much as $56 billion.

Vanke ¥5.7 billion medium-term bonds holder meeting proposals released: includes four payment plans, proposed to pay up to 40% of principal, payment on Jan. 28.

OpenAI focuses on robots and AI devices, reportedly looking for U.S. suppliers.

Goldman Sachs Q4 net revenue down 3% YoY, equities trading income breaks Wall Street record, net profit up 12%, exceeds expectations. Driven by wealth management, Morgan Stanley Q4 net revenue up 10% YoY, bond underwriting income up 93%.

Market Close

U.S. and European markets: S&P 500 up 0.26% to 6,944.47; Dow up 0.60% to 49,442.44; Nasdaq up 0.25% to 23,530.022. Europe STOXX 600 up 0.49% to 614.57, hits new record high for two days in a row.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite down 0.33% at 4,112.60. Shenzhen Component up 0.41% at 14,306.73. ChiNext up 0.56% at 3,367.92.

Bond market: At the close, U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yield about 4.17%, up 4 bp on the day; 2-year T-note yield about 3.56%, up 5 bp.

Commodities: WTI Feb crude futures down 4.56% at $59.19/barrel; Brent Mar crude down 4.15% at $63.76/barrel. COMEX Feb gold down 0.26% at $4,623.7/oz. COMEX Mar silver up 1.05% at $92.347/oz. LME copper down ~0.6% at $13,106/ton. LME tin down nearly 2.7% at $52,031/ton.

News Details

Global Headlines

PBOC decides to cut relending, rediscount rates. From January 19, 2026, relending, rediscount rates will be lowered by 25 bp. After adjustment, 3-, 6-, and 12-month rates for agricultural and small business relending will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively; rediscount rate will be 1.5%; pledged supplementary loan rate 1.75%; targeted structural monetary policy tool rate 1.25%.

  • PBOC: Lowers monetary policy tool rates by 25 bp, room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year. All types of structural monetary policy tool rates reduced by 25 bp, annual relending rates down to 1.25%, other tenors adjusted likewise. Also, together with financial authorities, minimum down-payment ratio for commercial property loans lowered to 30%. Zou Lan stressed that there is still room for further reduction this year. The average legal reserve ratio of financial institutions is 6.3%; so RRR cuts still have scope.

For all of 2025, China’s social financing incremental scale >¥35 trillion, RMB loans increased by ¥16.27 trillion. According to Xinhua, PBOC data on Jan 15: social financing incremental scale for 2025 reached ¥35.6 trillion, up ¥3.34 trillion year-on-year. At end-Dec 2025, broad money (M2) balance ¥340.29 trillion, up 8.5% YoY; RMB loan balance ¥271.91 trillion, up 6.4% YoY. Moderate loose monetary policy strongly supported stable economic growth.

Ceres-1 sea launch Yao-7 carrier rocket successfully launched. This marks the 23rd flight of Ceres-1 rocket.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Group: Will strive to break through reusable rocket technology in 2026. In the 2026 annual work meeting in Beijing, key tasks include major human lunar and deep space projects, focusing on reusable rocket tech breakthrough, accelerating China’s space power.

Silver party paused, Trump admin has not yet imposed key mineral tariffs, spot silver dropped over 7%. Trump admin decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum, instead seeking bilateral negotiations and considering price floors. Decision eases market concern over full tariffs. Wall Street remains optimistic on mid-term outlook for silver, citing supply gap, industrial demand, gold-driven spillover demand; but warns of short-term risks.

Trump: Although investigating Powell, has no plan to directly dismiss him. Trump said he has no plan to directly fire Powell, still maintains a watchful attitude and stressed presidents should have a say over central bank policies. Successor selection is accelerating; two "Kevins" favored, Fed’s independence debate deepens.

Job market remains resilient, U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 last week, lowest since Nov last year. U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims have been below the 200,000 key level for several weeks, showing labor market resilience. 4-week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two-year low. Despite many major companies announcing layoffs, the data does not show a broad wave of layoffs, with continued claims at a low 1.884 million, showing stability in “slower hiring but little increase in layoffs”.

Report: U.S. Congress bipartisan push for $2.5 bn key mineral strategic reserves plan. The new law will establish a key mineral trading hub, operating similar to the strategic petroleum reserve and Fed: physically, it will build storage facilities akin to the SPR; governance-wise, a Fed-like regulatory committee to oversee key materials reserves and release.

Pentagon moving carrier strike group to Middle East, Iran announces temporary airspace closure. Reported by Global Times, NewsNation: carrier strike group transferred from South China Sea to CENTCOM’s responsibility area, estimated 1 week; Russian agency reports U.S. reconnaissance planes near Iranian border. Iran temporarily closed airspace from 6:15 Thursday Beijing time, reopening after nearly 5 hours.

U.S. Treasury: Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries in Nov rebounded to record high, Japan at new 3+ year high, China at new low since 2008. Data: foreign holdings of US Treasuries in Nov up $112.8 bn to $9.36 tn, rebounding after two months of decline; among top 10 holders, Japan the largest, up $2.6 bn to $1.2026 tn, up for 11 months straight; China down for 3 months to $682.6 bn.

Alibaba Qianwen APP event: Fully integrates Taobao, Alipay, Taobao Flash Sale and other Alibaba ecosystem services. Thursday’s launch saw Qianwen App fully integrate Taobao, Alipay, Fliggy, Amap and other ecosystem scenes. Major update is system-level integration. Qianwen App and Taobao Flash Sale, Alipay "AI Pay" realize deep integration; users can complete end-to-end decision and payment in chat, without switching apps.

AI chip demand still hot, TSMC Q4 net profit up 35% YoY, beats expectations, 2025 CAPEX $40.9 bn. Earnings call: Capacity very tight, CAPEX to sharply increase next 3 years

  • Q4 net profit up 35% well above estimates, gross margin at 62.3%. AI demand drives HPC business, 3nm/5nm process revenue nearly 70%, solidifying global foundry dominance. Smartphone segment faces memory chip shortage concerns, but AI boom delivers strong earnings; TSMC U.S. shares surged nearly 2% in after-hours trading.
  • TSMC CEO C.C. Wei: This huge investment must be handled cautiously or TSMC would face disaster. "I’ve spent months communicating with clients and clients’ clients to confirm demand is real, and I am satisfied with the answers."
  • Wall Street on TSMC earnings: CAPEX and margin guidance are explosive; bears will be disappointed. TSMC Q4 gross margin breaks 60% for first time; net profit beats; 2026 CAPEX guidance hiked sharply to $52-56 bn, far above consensus. Company also raised long-term margin and revenue targets, betting big on exploding AI demand. Goldman Sachs: “Anyone hoping for a pullback will be disappointed;” Wall Street consensus is TSMC’s guidance shatters their prior conservative bottleneck image, showing confident long-term industry demand.

Vanke ¥5.7 bn medium-term bonds holder meeting proposals released: includes four payment plans, max proposed payment of 40% principal, payment on Jan 28. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Bank of Communications released meeting proposals for holders of two expiring Vanke bonds totaling ¥5.7 bn, offering four options including principal extension and prepayment up to 40% principal, backed by accounts receivable from project companies. All proposals require >90% approval to take effect.

OpenAI focusing on robots and AI devices, reportedly seeking U.S. suppliers. Reports say OpenAI issued RFP for components from U.S. hardware manufacturers, covering chips, motors, packaging, and cooling equipment. OpenAI’s Chief of Global Affairs likened AI to a “catalyst for reindustrializing America,” saying OpenAI expects robot industry to grow faster than many expect.

Goldman Sachs Q4 net revenue down 3%, equity trading income breaks Wall Street record, net profit up 12%, beats estimates. Q4 net income $4.617 bn, up 12% YoY, with equity trading a milestone at $4.31 bn, a Wall Street record. Transfer of Apple credit card business caused $1.676 bn net loss for platform solutions in Q4, dragging overall net revenue down; excluding this, Q4 was even stronger.

Wealth management boost: Morgan Stanley Q4 net revenue up 10% YoY, bond underwriting up 93%. 2025 Q4 net revenue $17.9 bn, up 10% YoY; debt underwriting soared 93% mainly due to Meta’s $10 bn AI data center financing. Wealth management drew $122.3 bn new assets this quarter, total AUM $9.3 tn. Despite slight drop in fixed income, full-year net income hit a historical high.

Shale oil super merger? Coterra considering union with Devon Energy, stock surged over 10%. Coterra Energy and Devon Energy reportedly negotiating for a possible merger, one option is an all-stock deal. Both have extensive oil/gas assets in Permian Basin, merger would help compete with ExxonMobil and other giants.

Analyst Picks

Goldman Sachs: Dollar still overvalued by ~15% in 2026, tech “exceptionalism” is key downside risk. In its 2026 FX outlook, Goldman argues dollar hegemony is "slowly ebbing" but will not crash suddenly, pressured by global growth convergence. Key tail risk: if faith in U.S. tech “exceptionalism” is shaken by disruptive tech change, capital inflows may reverse, causing a far steeper dollar devaluation than expected.

Bernstein raises SanDisk target by 93% to $580: AI creating an unprecedented supercycle for storage. Wall Street’s focus in AI hardware is shifting from computation to storage. Bernstein dramatically raised SanDisk target price, saying AI’s long-context needs will trigger NAND demand spike, start a supercycle. JP Morgan is more cautious, thinking current prices are cyclical, likely to normalize as capacity expands.

Citi’s latest commodities view: “Tactically long” oil and precious metals, “structurally long” aluminum, copper price “may peak within a month.” Citi says commodities are at a turning point. Oil short-term target $70 due to geopolitics, but faces longer-term supply glut. Bullish on precious metals: silver target $100, gold $5,000. Aluminum best opportunity due to shortage, target $3,400–3,500. Copper may peak at $14,000 but January could be the highest for the year.

This round of “lithium bull market” is different. Deutsche Bank says lithium market is entering a new rational cycle. This surge is driven by AI/data center-induced storage demand rather than policy. Market tools are mature and China’s production discipline means lithium prices are less likely to show wild volatility—future cycles will be more fundamental and resilient.

Yen intervention prelude likely, market may see “sudden” action, watch out for “rate check”. Nomura warns Japan’s Ministry of Finance is changing its currency intervention game plan. This Wednesday, USD/JPY dropped sharply in London session without positive news, likely due to a “rate check.” These informal inquiries often signal imminent intervention.

Deutsche Bank: By 2030, costs of space data centers will match ground-based ones. DB argues the cost gap of deploying in space is closing rapidly. As launch costs plummet and satellites improve, within 10 years space data center costs will reach parity with ground centers, offering a solution for energy/cooling bottlenecks of ground centers.

China Macro

Qiushi magazine publishes key article by CCP General Secretary: “Speech at the Central Urban Work Conference”. Focus on building comfortable, convenient, livable cities. Plans must integrate population, industry, urban development and transport. Optimize urban spatial structure, improve infrastructure. Accelerate new real estate model to better meet rigid and diverse residential needs, promote urban/vulnerable area renewal, improve health and home care, expand education resources, healthcare improvement.

Li Qiang meets Canadian PM Carney. China willing to strengthen strategic alignment, restore and expand exchanges at all levels, maximize mechanisms in government trade, science, agriculture; promote stable bilateral trade, increase convenience, expand cooperation in clean energy, digital, agriculture, aerospace, advanced manufacturing, finance, nurture new growth engines.

Financial Supervision and Administration: Strong, orderly work to resolve risks at small financial institutions. Meeting called to: 1) Strong, orderly and effective resolution of risk at small financial firms, focusing on old risks, curbing new ones, keeping bottom line on “no financial explosions”. 2) Strict control and resolution of risks in related fields; normalized real estate financing coordination. 3) Strengthen regulatory environment. 4) Support reform and transformation of industry. 5) Accurately support stable, improving economy.

Former head of CSRC Tech Supervision busted for corruption, once took 2,000 ETH in bribes. Former CSRC Tech Supervision head Yao Qian, once head of PBOC Digital Currency Institute, took massive bribes, once accepting 2,000 ETH (worth up to ¥60 million) using hardware wallets and alias accounts to hide. Ultimately, blockchain tracking caught evidence during house purchase.

Broad-based ETF trading surge: CSI 500 hits record, CSI 300 and A500 see huge volumes. The top three broad-based ETFs saw total turnover over ¥66.8 billion.

China Corporates

Shuibei silver merchant default: Many lost tens of thousands, police involved. Daily Economic News reports the default was by “Hechenghang” Shuibei Silver Store; >350 people in groups seeking recourse; store suddenly closed, unable to pay out metals purchased. Rumors owner ran away are false, but cannot pay clients.

China’s first ¥100 bn gold ETF is born! As global gold prices break $4,600/oz, Huaan Gold ETF crossed ¥100 bn, first of its kind in China. Institutions see long-term case for gold on Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risk, de-dollarization; short-term volatility up, advise investors to buy dips from a portfolio angle.

Moutai pricing reform signals! Goldman: Liquor sector price clearing accelerates, rebound likely second half. Moutai has accelerated direct sales and pricing reform. iMoutai app launched Feitian series and adjusted non-standard prices. Goldman sees inflection point; price normalization and inventory clearing will speed up. Demand still weak, finances pressured short-term, but expect sector recovery in H2 2026.

CATL’s fight back fails? Ronbay Technology’s ¥120 bn order questioned; Lithium iron phosphate “big bet” direction unclear. CATL recently signed ¥120 bn purchase agreement with Ronbay Tech, but was quickly questioned by Shanghai Stock Exchange on Ronbay’s capacity, which is far below promised volume. Ronbay claims new “one-step” process offers cost advantage, but scale and maturity in doubt.

Antitrust investigation: What does this mean for Trip.com? UBS, JP Morgan analysis suggests probe could last 4–6 months, likely fine 3–4% of previous year sales. Trip.com stock could be flat for 4–6 months, with valuation pressure. Business model: key pricing tools may need overhaul, suppliers may gain leverage, ad income growth may slow.

Affected by volatility in hog prices, Muyuan forecasts 2025 net profit to fall 14.93%–20.21% YoY.

International Macro

Veteran CB reporter: To win reelection, Trump’s “Three Big Levers” to stimulate economy will likely work this year, but risks later. Trump has simultaneously activated fiscal, monetary and credit stimulus: $200 bn tax cuts, easier bank lending, pressures Fed to cut rates sharply. Experts expect GDP boost by 0.5 points in H1, but risk long-term debt explosion, financial risk, loss of central bank independence and possible crisis.

Bitcoin nears $100,000, US digital currency regulation faces crucial vote, Wall St vs crypto in fierce fight. US digital currency rules in doubt, with stablecoin yield payments the sticking point. Bank lobby wants stablecoin issuers barred from paying users directly, but loopholes remain for partners. Coinbase CEO says amendments will “kill stablecoin yields and let banks kill competition.” Rules allowing government unrestricted access to user finances are also controversial.

Yen dives: Will BOJ hike early? Officials focus on weak FX’s inflation impact. BOJ closely watching yen depreciation’s effect on inflation, may have to reevaluate rate hike timing and potentially act sooner. Though January meeting likely keeps rates unchanged, persistent FX weakness may force revision to expected summer hike schedule.

International Corporates

Memory chip costs soar 230%, iPhone 18 high-end models may see big price hikes. Key memory modules have jumped 230% ytd, meaning prices for high-storage versions may increase $50–100, while basic versions stay the same. Analysts say the cost pressure may push more consumers toward entry-level models.

The battle for tangible assets: Amazon to purchase first new US copper supply in over a decade for its data centers. Amazon signed a two-year copper supply contract with Rio Tinto, sourcing Arizona bi-leach copper output to meet explosive demand from AI data center construction. Copper prices hit record highs; fast AI sector growth will intensify resource competition.

Musk’s open conspiracy: No more one-off FSD purchase, subscription only—storm coming. Musk announces Tesla FSD will cancel one-time buy option on Feb 14; switch to monthly subscriptions. Aims to lower entry barrier, boost penetration and recurring income, but seen as Tesla hedging legal/financial risk short-term and rethinking long-term asset value of “full self-driving.”

Musk: Starship launch frequency to exceed once per hour in three years. On social media Musk said Starship launches will top one/hour in three years, with SpaceX aiming to build 10,000 Starships per year.

Industries/Concepts

1. Semiconductors | On Jan 15, TSMC published Q4 2025 results: revenue $33.73 bn, up 25.5% YoY and 1.9% QoQ; gross margin 62.3%. Growth driven by AI-powered demand for high-end chips. 2026 CAPEX expected at $52–56 bn, beating market expectations.

Analysts believe TSMC’s results prove industry demand is real; tight supply/demand will persist till 2028–2029, and downstream customers are financially strong enough to pay high prices. The aggressive CAPEX plans are a strong endorsement for future AI compute demand, with the AI infrastructure wave just starting. Semiconductor industry chain faces major opportunity.

2. Nonferrous Tungsten | On Jan 15, prices for domestic tungsten products rose: black tungsten concentrate, white tungsten concentrate, ferro-tungsten, ammonium paratungstate up ¥5,000–10,000/ton. Analysts see restricted global supply growth and rising demand driven by new industries and safety needs.

3. Commercial Space | According to China News, Jan 15, Beijing Economic-Tech Dev Zone announced successful completion of Rocket Avenue project, becoming China’s first shared commercial space R&D/production base. Will offer R&D, testing, smart manufacturing, integrated control, industry incubation and public services for the full commercial spacechain. Guolian Minsheng Securities: US/China resonance drives sector higher.

4. Power Grid Equipment | China News: State Grid releases 15th Five-Year Plan: total fixed asset investment expected at ¥4 tn, up 40% from previous period. Focus: green transformation, building new power systems, boosting tech; analysts see the plan as visionary and strategic—big increase in total investment, targeting green, smart grid, autonomous secure systems especially UHV, smart grid, digitalization, storage, efficiency.

5. Carbon Fiber | Guangming: CAS research team and partners developed domestic T1000 high-performance carbon fiber—the closest in practice to the “blade” supermaterial. Domestic T1000 fiber: each strand has 12,000 filaments, each less than one-tenth the diameter of a hair but super-strong; 1m weighs only 0.5g, tensile strength over 6,600 MPa, can pull 200kg without breaking, 7–8 times steel. This breakthough marks China’s leap from T300 to T1000, solves high-end material “choke point” and injects new energy into upgrade of manufacturing during the 15th Five-Year Plan.

6. GaN Power Products | IT Home: Onsemi announced partnership with GlobalFoundries to jointly develop & produce advanced GaN power product using GlobalFoundries’ most advanced 200mm enhanced silicon GaN process, starting from 650V devices.

Today’s News Preview

Germany December CPI.

U.S. December industrial output, manufacturing output.

U.S. January NAHB housing market index.

Fed Governor Bowman, Vice Chair Jefferson speeches.

2026 Fusion Energy Technology & Industry Expo.

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