Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | January 31, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | January 31, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Trump nominated Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, triggering hawkish market expectations. US PPI inflation data unexpectedly rose, US stocks fell, the dollar posted its largest single-day gain since May last year, and precious metals plunged.

Apple rose 0.46% after earnings; Sandisk opened up 21% at its peak, closing up nearly 7%.
10-year US Treasury yield rose 1.21 basis points, 2-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points. The US dollar rose 0.84%, marking the biggest daily gain since May 2025, but fell about 1.3% in January.

Bitcoin once fell to $81,000, then rebounded to around yesterday’s closing price, down about 4% in January, registering the longest monthly losing streak since 2019.

Gold plummeted 10%, wiping out all gains for the week and falling back below $4,900. Spot silver sank 36% below $73 before rebounding, still down over 26% for the day. NY copper erased all of yesterday's gains, down 5% intraday. Oil initially followed commodities lower but turned higher during the day due to the US-Iran situation. Oil is up over 14% for January, posting its first monthly gain in six months, and its best single-month performance since July 2023.

During Asian hours, the Shanghai Composite fell 1%, the ChiNext rebounded in a V-shape to rise over 1%, computing hardware recovered, gold and base metals saw a wave of limit-down moves, the Hang Seng fell 2%, and tech stocks generally declined.

Top News

China

The CPC Central Political Bureau held a meeting chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping.

New round of China-US trade talks? China commented.

The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answered questions regarding the WTO panel ruling on China's complaint about the US Inflation Reduction Act.

CSRC: Plans to expand strategic investor categories and clarify minimum shareholding requirements.

High-speed product demand surges, Innolight forecasts 2025 net profit to increase by 231%-249% year-on-year.

InnoLight predicts 2025 net profit growth of 89.50%-128.17% YoY, optical module business profit to double to over 10 billion.

Cambricon achieves annual profitability for the first time; 2025 revenue expected to quadruple, net profit 1.85 to 2.15 billion RMB.

"Heavy investments" into AI R&D, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a 2025 loss of 1.35 to 1.95 billion RMB.

Overseas

On nominating Walsh, Trump: He'll be one of the greatest Fed chairmen! Trump is satisfied with the "Powell replacement": no need for White House pressure, Walsh will lower rates on his own.

Trump picked the new Fed chairman, while a few defeated contenders argued: Rates are too high and should be cut. Trump's "chosen" officials contradicted: Bowman says the Fed can afford to "ease into" rate cuts.

The US federal government faces partial shutdown, Senate appropriations vote is stuck.

US December PPI grew 3% year-on-year, beating expectations; core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, service costs surged.

Oil recovers intraday losses as the US pressures Iran: either negotiate or "wait and see".

Japan Finance Ministry: No yen intervention in January.

OpenAI plans Q4 IPO, aiming to beat Anthropic.

Market Closing Report

US and European stocks: S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6939.03 points, up 1.37% in January. Dow fell 0.36% to 48892.47 points, up 1.73% in January. Nasdaq fell 0.94% to 23461.816 points, up 0.95% in January. Europe’s STOXX 600 rose 0.64% to 611, up 0.44% for the week and 3.18% for January.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%. Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%. ChiNext closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%.

Bonds: US 10-year Treasury yield up 1.21 basis points to 4.2434%, up 7.84 basis points in January. 2-year US Treasury yield down 3.46 basis points to 3.5245%, up 5.14 basis points in January.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures down 8.88% to $4846.20/oz, up 11.93% in January, peaked at $5586.29 on the 29th. COMEX silver futures down 27.18% to $83.3/oz, off the all-time high of $121.785 reached on the 29th, up 18.9% in January.

 

Top News Details

Global Heavyweights

China

CPC Central Political Bureau held a meeting chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping. The meeting emphasized upholding the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, targeting major strategic economic and social development tasks for the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, and striving for a good start.

New round of China-US trade talks? China comments. According to Global Times, the US may start trade negotiations before the leaders' meeting in April. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yongqian said, "China is willing to work with the US to uphold and implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, use the China-US trade consultation mechanism, manage differences, promote cooperation, and promote steady, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations."

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers questions on China’s WTO dispute case against the US “Inflation Reduction Act” panel ruling. The panel ruled that the US clean energy subsidies in question violate WTO rules, rejected US arguments regarding “public morals,” and required the US to cancel the disputed subsidies. China welcomes and appreciates the objective and fair ruling, hoping that the US respects the panel's conclusions, abides by WTO rules, and takes measures to correct mistakes to uphold international trade order and stable development.

CSRC: Plans to expand strategic investor types, clarify minimum shareholding requirements. The consultation suggests designating national social security funds, basic pension funds, corporate (occupational) annuities, commercial insurance funds (investment by insurance companies or associated asset management), public funds, bank wealth management, etc. as strategic investors, leveraging patient capital as strategic resources for listed company investments.

High-speed product demand rises fast, New Yi Sheng forecasts 2025 net profit to increase 231%-249% YoY. New Yi Sheng forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 9.4 to 9.9 billion RMB, up 231% to 249% YoY, driven mainly by a boom in global AI computing investment spurring high-speed optical module demand.

InnoLight expects 2025 net profit growth of 89.50%-128.17%, optical module business profit to double to over 10 billion. InnoLight forecasts net profit of 9.8 to 11.8 billion RMB, up as much as 128% YoY, mainly driven by its core optical module business, which after excluding incentives should see net profit of 10.8 to 13.1 billion RMB, validating its leadership position in the AI computing boom.

Cambricon achieves annual profitability for the first time; 2025 revenue expected to increase more than fourfold, net profit 1.85 to 2.15 billion. Cambricon expects historic first annual profit in 2025, forecasting revenue of 6 to 7 billion RMB. Driven by explosive industry computing demand amid accelerated AI implementation, the company will see a dramatic inflection point and reshape market valuations for domestic AI chips.

“Heavy investments” into AI R&D, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a 2025 pre-loss of 1.35 to 1.95 billion. Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a net loss of 1.35 to 1.95 billion RMB for 2025, with revenue up over 40% YoY, mainly due to sustained high-intensity R&D and market investment in AI large models and short dramas. The company has achieved breakthroughs in AI product matrix and its short drama platforms lead overseas. With a full-chain “computing-model-application” strategy, the company exchanges strategic loss for long-term growth, reinforcing AI as its core engine.

Overseas

Trump nominates Walsh: He’ll be one of the greatest Federal Reserve chairmen! Trump satisfied with the "Powell successor": no White House pressure needed, Walsh will cut rates on his own.

  • Trump said Walsh did not promise to cut rates but "certainly wants to lower rates." A new "Fed newsletter" judged this transition as the most significant power transfer at the Fed since Volcker. Every chairman since 1987 has emphasized continuity; Walsh pledges to break tradition, rethink Fed assets, policy frameworks, economic roles, and relations with the executive branch.
  • Traders still expect two rate cuts from the Fed this year. Walsh has consistently been vigilant about inflation but recently echoed Trump's views on lowering rates, sparking concerns about central bank independence and the risk that the willingness to cut rates becomes a litmus test for future chairmen.
  • The dialogue best reflecting Walsh’s policy stance: Inflation is the Federal Reserve’s choice. In an in-depth interview, Walsh stated inflation is the Fed's responsibility, not to be blamed on external factors. For reform, he advocates “revival” over “revolution,” suggesting that reducing quantitative easing could allow for lower interest rates. "If we quiet the printing press, rates can actually be lower."

Trump picked the new Fed chairman, losing candidates call for rate cuts. Trump nominated Kevin Walsh as Fed chair. Candidate Hassett supported Walsh and criticized the January decision to hold rates steady, arguing supply-side growth will create room for cuts. Board members Milan and Waller also see current rates as too high.

Trump’s “chosen” official contradicts: Bowman says the Fed can afford to “ease into” rate cuts.

Walsh nomination triggers gold and silver “bloodbath”! Intraday silver plunges over 35% and gold over 10%. Gold suffered its largest intraday drop in over 40 years, exceeding that of the 2008 financial crisis. The market views Walsh as more hawkish than other candidates. After recent gains in precious metals, a crowded long position and extreme leverage put the market at risk for a "gamma squeeze" immediately triggered by small shocks like Friday’s plunge.

  • A warning sign? Asian gold ETF inflows hit record. January’s net inflow of Asian gold ETFs reached $7.1 billion, hitting a record with many funds setting historic highs. Institutions are wary of this "frenzy": when retail investors flock in, it often signals that the rally is late-stage. Analysts warn that gold is showing nonlinear, euphoric moves, with extreme overbought signals posing short-term risk.
  • Is the sharp crash in gold and silver a brief correction or start of a trend reversal? The direct cause is hawkish Fed chair expectations, easing government shutdown worries, and technical overbought; analysts mostly view it as a harsh correction in a bull market rather than a reversal, as geopolitical and monetary drivers remain.

US federal government faces partial shutdown, Senate appropriations stuck. The US faces a short, partial shutdown as the Senate stalls on funding votes to keep agencies open, possibly starting as early as Saturday local time.

US December PPI grew 3% YoY, beats expectations, core PPI up 0.7% MoM, service costs surge. December PPI rose 0.5% MoM, with YoY growth also beating expectations, showing inflation pressure persists upstream. Data shows businesses passing costs through the supply chain, especially core goods prices rising faster, possibly affecting downstream inflation and creating new policy uncertainty for the Fed.

Oil recovers intraday loss, US pressures Iran: negotiate or “wait and see”. On Jan 30, President Trump said in the White House that the US is deploying more ships toward Iran than during the Venezuela operation. He wants an agreement with Iran, but if not achieved, “we’ll wait and see.” In late US trading, WTI crude rebounded over 2% from intraday lows back above $65, almost fully recovering losses.

Japan Finance Ministry: No yen intervention in January. Japanese officials confirmed no FX intervention in January; yen appreciation was driven by market expectations of joint action. But this strategy relies on US cooperation, which may be fragile. With US Treasury denial and post-election headwinds, the yen remains uncertain.

OpenAI plans Q4 IPO, aims to beat Anthropic. OpenAI has appointed a new Chief Accounting Officer and a head of investor relations, signaling real IPO preparation. OpenAI is worried Anthropic may IPO first, giving them first-mover advantage and attracting investors eager for generative AI.

Research Picks

BofA’s Hartnett warns: global stocks face “overbought” trap, technical indicators hit sell signal. Michael Hartnett warned that 89% of MSCI stocks have crossed two major averages, breaking the 88% historical sell threshold. Meanwhile, global stock funds had $15.4 billion in weekly net outflows, but sentiment measures remain "extremely bullish."

Oil price reversal? Barclays says the “glut crisis” is a myth and a multi-year bull market is imminent! Barclays expects a multi-year uptrend starting in H2 2026. The "glut" narrative is unsupported, with the actual surplus supply not appearing; demand is underestimated, and refinery profits plus futures structure are telling a different story. By 2028–2030, annual non-OPEC supply increase may be near zero, meaning as demand remains and spare capacity disappears, oil prices can only go higher.

Domestic Macro

Ministry of Finance: 2025 securities transaction stamp tax grows 57.8%, about 100 billion RMB for childcare subsidies. Data show 2025 general public budget income at 21.6 trillion RMB, down 1.7% YoY; stamp tax up 57.8% to 203.5 billion. About 100 billion allocated for child subsidies, reaching over 30 million infants. 2025 general budget income down 1.7% from 2024.

Two ministries: improve power market trading and pricing, coal power capacity price recovery ratio raised above 50%. Notice says: 1) Locally raise coal power capacity price standards and refer to coal power to establish gas power pricing; 2) For newly launched pumped storage stations, set unified price by average cost principle; 3) Build new energy storage capacity price system for the grid side.

Domestic Companies

Max HKD 7 billion raised, Montage plans Hong Kong IPO. Chinese chip design firm Montage plans HK IPO to raise up to HKD 7 billion ($902 million). The offering is strongly backed by Alibaba and JPMorgan ($450 million cornerstone). Expected 2025 net profit growth of up to 66% highlights potential in AI and data center chips.

Wentai Tech faces limited control over Anshi Semiconductor, forecasts a 2025 loss of 9-13.5 billion RMB.

Gotion High-Tech expects annual net profit to double, Chery IPO adds significantly to book profits.

China Life Group discloses results, investment income exceeds 400 billion RMB!

Taikang Online 2025 report: premium exceeds 20 billion, comprehensive investment yield reaches 5.57%.

Broker A-share trading volume surges YoY, Shanghai brokers account for 30% market share.

CICC issues "results forecast": 2025 net profit may exceed 10 billion, up 50~85% YoY.

Overseas Macro

Resilience amid trade turmoil: Eurozone Q4 GDP preliminary at 0.3%, Germany posts best quarter in three years. Eurozone showed better-than-expected resilience at the end of 2025, with Q4 GDP up 0.3% QoQ, led by domestic demand. Spain led at 0.8%, Germany saw its best quarter in three years. Looking ahead to 2026, Germany’s fiscal expansion may accelerate growth, but shifts in trade patterns, euro appreciation, and geopolitical risks remain headwinds.

Japan Tokyo CPI falls for two months straight, energy and food prices decline. Tokyo CPI dropped for two months, core CPI at 2.0%, below expectations. Energy price drop widened, food price increases narrowed, services rose moderately. Slowing inflation dims BOJ rate hike, causing yen's dive after data.

Indonesia’s "bloody week": multiple crashes, circuit breakers, stock exchange CEO resigns in apology. Indonesia stocks faced a "black week" after MSCI downgrade warning, plunging 16% in two days and $80 billion in value lost. CEO Iman Rachman resigned under pressure. Despite urgent regulatory reforms, caution persists due to institutional downgrades and uncertain policy.

Overseas Companies

Apple earnings call: more personalized Siri coming this year, storage price hikes + tight 3nm capacity pressure Q2 gross margin. Apple posted its best quarter ever: $143.8B revenue, $85.3B iPhone income, both record highs, with Greater China up 38%. Q2 outlook is still double-digit growth, but warned 3nm and memory price hikes may squeeze supply/gross margin. Apple announced AI partnership with Google for its next-gen model, and Siri upgrades coming this year.

  • Strong guidance: Why didn’t Apple surge? Blame storage. Apple revenue beat, iPhone hit best ever quarter, Q2 forecast up 13-16%, beating 10% consensus. Cook warned about higher memory prices weighing heavily on current-quarter margins, plus supply constraints for 3nm processors and AirPods Pro 3.
  • Goldman/Citi on Apple earnings: beats, 2.5B active users may fuel iPhone cycle. Apple’s Q1 2026 revenue and margins hit historic highs, China growth strong. GS/Citi expects installed base to drive long-term services, and new foldables/AI Siri to stimulate demand. Although facing tariff/component cost pressure, both maintain $315+ targets, bullish on AI-driven premium.

Morgan Stanley backs Microsoft: Don’t just watch Azure, cRPO up 39%+Copilot near breakout, long-term growth unchanged. Microsoft shares posted largest drop since 2020 as Azure growth missed, but Morgan Stanley said investors are too focused on Azure alone, missing the bigger picture. Azure is limited by supply, not demand; sharp 39% cRPO growth signals momentum ahead. Strong margin expansion and 21% EPS growth means Microsoft is undervalued, MS maintains $650 target.

Sandisk call: “Datacenter to become largest NAND market", CEO admits “cannot meet demand” but refuses blind expansion. Sandisk confirmed AI is reshaping storage, with NAND no longer just cyclical but a key AI infrastructure. Datacenter revenue jumped 64% QoQ, expected to surpass mobile in 2026. Q3 margin guidance as high as 67% signals pricing power in tight supply, but Sandisk sticks to disciplined capex and won’t blindly expand.

  • GS flash note on Sandisk earnings: Beat “high” bar. GS said Sandisk not only broke the high bar but shattered expectations overall. Q4 revenue at $3.03B, margin at 51.1%, EPS at $6.2, all far above consensus. More shocking is Q1 guidance: revenue forecast is 53% above consensus, EPS 2.4x the market view, showing NAND is in extreme boom and will benefit peers like Micron.

Western Digital call: 2026 capacity sold out, contracts signed to 2028, AI inference reshapes HDD valuation. Thanks to rising prices and cost cuts, WD gross margin jumped to 46.1%, with incremental margin at 75%. CEO Irving Tan says 2026 output is sold out, with three of top five clients signed to long-term contracts into 2027-28. AI inference will drive structural HDD demand as it generates vast new data needing low-cost storage.

Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix team up to restrict supply, block downstream hoarding: “Money can't buy it”! Amid sustained supply tightness, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron scrutinize orders and require customers to disclose end users/order volumes. Memory giants’ inventories are at historic lows—SK Hynix’s DRAM inventory plunged last Q4, Samsung’s stock covers just six weeks, half the usual 10-12 weeks.

Not competing in HBM, focusing on capacity! Kioxia exec: “We have the right product”, AI datacenters in storage hunger. Kioxia highlights avoiding the crowded HBM field, betting on and expanding high-density NAND/SSD capacity to meet service providers’ massive storage needs. This strategy has delivered pricing power and growth, with share price surging 13x post-IPO.

Today's News Preview

China’s official Manufacturing, Non-manufacturing, and Composite PMI for January.

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Risk Reminder & DisclaimerThe market carries risk and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider any individual user's specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should determine whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their own circumstances. Any investment based on this is at your own risk.

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