Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 14, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 14, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

The escalation of US-Iran geopolitical conflict has sparked concerns of energy tension. Fed Governor Waller adopted a hawkish stance. The market awaits the US CPI and Fed Chair Walsh's speech. The Nasdaq fell 1.55%, closing below the 50-day moving average. The Dow fell only 0.26%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.79%.

The sell-off in the Korean stock market spilled over to US stocks. The US semiconductor index plunged 4.78%, while the software ETF rose slightly by 0.37%. Nvidia dropped 3.52%, AMD fell 4.21%, ARM fell nearly 8%. Micron fell more than 7% at one point, SanDisk fell more than 12%. SK Hynix ADR dropped more than 9%, and its Seoul-listed shares plummeted 15.37%, setting a historical daily loss record. Apple went its own way, rising 0.71% and closing at a record high.

Waller mentioned the possibility of a rate hike. The 2-year US Treasury yield soared 6 basis points, and the 30-year yield rose 3 basis points, with the curve flattening. The real yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose to 2.34%, the highest since April last year.
The US dollar fluctuated, but after Waller's comments, it surged over 0.5% from its daily low. Bitcoin fell more than 3%, briefly dropping below $62,000.

Constrained by real yields and the US dollar, gold once plunged more than 3%, falling below the key support at $4,000. Spot silver plunged 3.57%, approaching the monthly low. Brent crude's intraday gain once reached 10%. After the US stock market closed, Trump said the US will "strike hard" at Iran tonight and tomorrow.

In Asia, the ChiNext index fell more than 3%, technology stocks fell across the board, memory chips plunged, Gigadevice was limit down, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1%, and semiconductors adjusted collectively.

Top News

China

Li Qiang: Promote a smooth transition between new and old growth drivers, accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and promote the large-scale commercialization of new technologies such as artificial intelligence.

"15th Five-Year" Consumption Expansion Plan: Deeply advance "AI+consumption". By 2030, total retail sales of social consumer goods will reach 60 trillion yuan.

TSMC's June revenue was NT$442.68 billion, a record high with 67.9% YoY growth. In the first half of the year, it surpassed NT$2.4 trillion. Reports: TSMC has notified customers that mature process prices will rise by a single-digit percentage starting January 2027.

Hengtong Optoelectronics expects first half net profit to increase by 87%-121% YoY, driven by explosive demand for optical communications from AI.

Explosive AI computing power demand: Shennan Circuits expects first half net profit to rise up to 78%. The Thailand plant swung to profit in Q2.

StepStar AI phone STEPX Neo launched, together with the release of its native large model terminal brand.

Overseas

Trump said it's still possible to reach an agreement with Iran. Middle Eastern allies should pay for protection. Crude oil surged 10% intraday. The US military resumes sanctions on Iran. Trump says the US will "strike hard" tonight and tomorrow and will charge 20% on strait shipping.

US Republican Senator and foreign policy hawk Graham passed away suddenly due to illness. Trump proposed his sister to fill the vacant seat.

Fed Governor Waller: If core inflation remains high, the Fed may need to raise rates. The market estimates a 45% chance of a July rate hike, up from 35% previously. US stocks, bonds, and gold fell.

Korean regulators tightened single-stock leveraged ETFs; an "F4" high-level meeting will study volatility suppression measures. South Korea's five biggest banks have already used up 85% of their annual household loan quota — borrowing to buy stocks may "brake." Panic selling sparked a forced liquidation wave of 344.2 billion won; Korean stock market faces a credit crisis.

Claude Fable 5 delayed again, OpenAI Sol lifted usage limits. The AI user war is escalating.

 

Market Closing

US and European Markets: S&P 500 closed down 60.05 points, a decrease of 0.79%, at 7,515.34. Dow fell 0.26% to 52,498.64. Nasdaq fell 1.55% at 25,873.176. European STOXX 600 closed down 0.01% at 641.01.

A Shares: The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,913.79, down 2.06%. The Shenzhen Component closed at 14,522.85, down 3.48%. ChiNext closed at 3,723.52, down 3.10%.

Bond Market: US 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.23 basis points to 4.6136%. The 2-year yield rose 5.67 basis points to 4.2647%.

Commodities: WTI August crude oil futures rose 9.42% to $78.14/barrel. Brent September futures rose 9.59% to $83.30/barrel. Spot gold fell 2.93% to $3,999.06/oz. Spot silver fell 3.77% to $57.6062/oz.

 

Top News Details

Global Highlights

China

Li Qiang: Promote smooth transition of new and old growth drivers, accelerate digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and promote large-scale commercialization of AI and other new technologies. Li emphasized the need to promote smooth transition between new and old growth drivers, accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, promote deep integration of advanced manufacturing and modern services, promote large-scale and commercial application of new technologies such as AI, and cultivate new industries and tracks. Enterprises’ concerns should be addressed in a timely manner, the business environment should be continuously optimized, reform approaches should stimulate market vitality, and enterprises should be supported to develop better.

"15th Five-Year" Consumption Expansion Plan: Deepen "AI+consumption." By 2030, total retail sales of social consumer goods will reach 60 trillion yuan. The plan states that by 2030, the total size of the consumer market will continue to expand, with retail sales of social consumer goods reaching about 60 trillion yuan. Promote high-quality development of digital consumption, deepen "AI+consumption," and implement digital consumption promotion actions. Expand consumption of digital products and increase supply of next-generation smart terminals such as AI phones and computers, smart wearables, smart robots, and desktop-level 3D printers.

TSMC's June revenue was NT$442.68 billion, a record with 67.9% YoY growth; over NT$2.4 trillion in first half. Bloomberg calculates Q2 revenue at NT$1.27 trillion. Analysts expect Q3 2026 single-quarter revenue to set a new record, with annual revenue growth possibly staying above 30%. January-June 2026 combined revenue was approximately NT$2.40 trillion, up 35.6% from last year.

Hengtong Optoelectronics expects H1 net profit up 87%-121% YoY, AI drives explosive demand for optical communications. Hengtong Optoelectronics expects net profit for H1 between 3.016 billion and 3.568 billion, up 86.94%-121.20%. During the period, benefiting from rapid AI development and continued data center capital expenditure, optical communications market demand grew and prices rose, driving earnings growth.

Explosion in AI computing demand: Shennan Circuits expects H1 net profit up to 78%, turning quarterly profit in Thai plant Q2. Shennan Circuits expects parent net profit of 2.83-3.0 billion in H1 2026, up 68%-78% YoY. Deducted net profit of 2.73-2.88 billion, up 66%-75%. Growth was driven by high AI server, high-speed switch, and intelligent vehicle demand and continued product structure optimization. Also, the Thailand unit turned a profit in Q2; offshore capacity comes into harvest phase.

StepStar AI phone STEPX Neo officially launched, together with native large model terminal brand. StepStar released the world's first large model native AI terminal brand STEPX and its first AI phone STEPX Neo, featuring its self-developed Step AOS OS — rebuilt from the bottom up, rather than just stacking AI functions, decomposing system capabilities by MCP standard for AI agents; equipped with memory, decision-making, and security systems; and partnering with major apps like Ctrip, Alipay, Didi, Meituan, etc., marking StepStar’s extension from large model R&D to hardware.

Overseas

Trump says may still reach deal with Iran, Mideast allies should pay protection fee. Trump said Iran has re-started contact with the US, but the US will continue military pressure. He named Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, saying the US is maintaining their security, so they should share costs; the US itself doesn't rely on Mideast oil.

Crude oil surged 10% intraday! US resumes Iran blockade, Trump vows "strike hard" tonight and tomorrow, charges 20% on strait shipping. US bombed Iran for a third night, and from 4 p.m. (EDT) July 14, began blockading Iran at sea. Iranian media claimed to shoot down a US drone; explosions reported on Iranian island Larak and Port Abbas. Trump said US charges on Hormuz shipping are to offset security costs, effective immediately. US media said the charge means a supertanker pays $30 million each, previously Iran charged $2 million max. Trump has notified Congress that conflict with Iran has reignited. International Maritime Organization: opposes strait transit fees. Iranian FM says US charges are "excessive".

Trump declares US takeover of Hormuz Strait, Iran warns of all-out war. President Trump said "We will take over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran will have nothing." The Iranian side immediately countered, saying "now or in future, US interference in the Strait of Hormuz will never be allowed," and warned that if regional conflict expands, "war will engulf all countries in the region."

Hormuz risks force UAE to build new port? Dubai revealed to be planning a new port to bypass the strait. Reports say Dubai's biggest port operator, DP World, plans to build a multifunction new port on UAE’s east coast, and construct new berths in existing ports; the new port could be completed in 18 months. The group says this is part of a diversification plan to handle possible shipping disruption in the Strait.

US Republican Senator, hawk Graham dies suddenly of illness; Trump proposes his sister to fill the seat. Graham is one of Trump's staunchest allies. Trump recommends his sister Darline to fill the vacant seat, Senator Tim Scott echoed. South Carolina governor will hold a press conference for a temporary appointment. Graham's sudden death draws major attention because of the closely balanced Senate.

US stocks, bonds, and gold fall! Fed's Waller: If core inflation stays high, Fed may raise rates. "New Fed News Agency" notes, Waller said on Monday if CPI data is hot again Tuesday, FOMC would need to consider tightening soon; it's his clearest statement yet, indicating he may support a rate hike this summer. After Waller's speech, July hike odds rose to 45% from 35%; 10-year Treasury yield jumped 5.2 basis points; Nasdaq 100 fell up to 1.9%; spot gold fell 3%.

Korean regulators fully tighten single-stock leveraged ETFs, "F4" high-level meeting to research volatility suppression. Leveraged single-stock ETFs in Korea launched just a month and a half ago, but have triggered the highest economic policy intervention. The "F4" — Treasury, Financial Committee, central bank, and the Financial Supervisory Service — have demanded asset managers submit volatility control plans. The regulator said he "regrets not going all out to block it;" more restrictions and tighter thresholds expected.

A single "missed expectations" from Korean broker, SK Hynix falls 12%, memory sector under pressure! Korean broker KIS forecasted SK Hynix Q2 operating profit at 6.04 trillion won, up 556% YoY, but below consensus of 6.5 trillion (by 8%). Main reason: high HBM share under long-term contract constraints limits ASP hikes. KIS cut profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 9% and 11%, but maintained 3.8 million won target price, calling the cut just an LTA revision, not due to deteriorating fundamentals.

South Korea’s top 5 banks have used 85% of entire year’s household loan quota; borrowing to buy stocks may "brake". Korean credit limits flashing red: 5 top commercial banks have used over 85% of their annual household loan quota in H1, some over limit. Regulatory total volume control means credit will tighten sharply in H2, forcing banks to cut balances. This cuts off incremental funding from mortgages and credit loans, so leveraged buying by retail investors will be materially restricted and market leverage funding faces forced cooling.

Panic selling causes 344.2 billion won in forced liquidations; Korean stock market falls into margin crisis. Korea’s KOSPI index plunged 8.95% Monday, triggering circuit breakers; the market entered a "decline–deleveraging–further decline" negative feedback loop. Semiconductor heavyweights and leveraged ETFs hit hard. According to Korea Financial Investment Association, 142.2 billion won in forced liquidations occurred July 9, with this month's total at 344.2 billion. Due to a 2-day lag in reporting, the full impact has yet to be felt, with more to come.

Claude Fable 5 delayed again, OpenAI Sol removes restriction; AI user battle in full swing. Anthropic and OpenAI's competition has moved from model capabilities to usage limits and pricing: Fable 5 extended due to user churn, OpenAI announced immediate removal of Codex time limits. The brutal logic: the higher the compute cost, whoever restricts access first, loses users first. With Sol at half the price of Fable 5, the endgame may be full commoditization of foundational models.

Research Report Picks

On the eve of US inflation test, Wall Street suffers the harshest "data deception" in history. Official CPI shows mild inflation, but Michigan consumer confidence is at a half-century low, drawing attention to the divergence. Economist Edwards notes the main problem is that the CPI average "basket" conceals the real inflation gap for different income groups — low-income families have long endured higher inflation, but this gets smoothed in the totals.

Goldman and BofA issue sell warnings, but hedge funds return to tech stocks, US positioning signals diverge. Goldman and BofA sentiment indicators have flashed sell signals, showing a hot market. But hedge funds, for the first time in 4 weeks, are net buyers, with call options at the highest since 2020. Tech stocks are especially favored. The divergence between institutional caution and actual buying is rare. Also, single stocks and index implied volatility diverged sharply — risk may depend more on stock picking than systemwide decline.

Is the AI debt bubble about to burst? Goldman admits market capacity near its limit. Tech giants’ AI borrowing spree is pushing the global investment grade debt market to its limits. This year, six hyperscale computing companies have issued $244 billion in bonds — double last year and 14 times the 2024 figure. Leverage leaped from 0.9x to 1.8x in six months. Goldman’s trading floor calls the market "brutal", spread thresholds dropped — from $75B needed to stress the market, now just $25B suffices. If bond vigilantes cut liquidity, a stock-bond crash may be inevitable.

Soaring bond yields will crash US stocks! "Dr. Doom" Peter Schiff: Something worse than a recession is coming. Peter Schiff warns: US 30-year Treasury yield broke 5%, a technical breakdown, bond market collapse will strangle US stocks and real estate. At the same time, Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, energy and fertilizer prices may permanently rise, imported inflation is unavoidable. Most deadly: decades of US housing subsidies have made affordability historically low — the more they help, the more expensive it gets. Something worse than recession may be quietly forming amid the stock exuberance.

US-Iran "fighting and talking", the market still hasn't learned how to trade. With the ink barely dry on a US-Iran truce memo, Brent crude rose 4% on an "indefinite closure" of the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides swap bombs and messages; "controlled escalation" is just a bargaining chip. The true risk goes far beyond the energy sector, as price spikes in the 72-79 range stoke inflation expectations and force the Fed to revive rate hikes.

Domestic Macro

Bull market breaks yearly line: a key bottoming signal. Xingzheng strategy analysts believe the Shanghai Composite broke its annual line after Monday's adjustment — the second time this bull run. Reviewing previous cycles, a break like this usually marks a bottom unless there’s a systemic risk (like COVID-19), so current risks are outweighed by opportunity.

First time over 500 billion yuan! What are Panda Bonds and why are they hot? So far this year Panda Bonds issued have surpassed 170 billion, with the total outstanding breaking 500 billion for the first time. Panda Bonds are RMB-denominated bonds issued by overseas entities in mainland China. As global investors see China’s potential, Panda Bonds have rapidly become a premium global asset.

Domestic Company/Industry

A historic moment for China’s aerospace — which A-share companies are involved? Long March 10B rocket's recovery July 10 set the world’s first sea-based rocket net-system recovery record. Many listed firms including Sinopec, Jiufeng Energy, Hailanxin, CITIC Heavy Industries, Aerospace Engineering, Aerospace Power, deeply involved, covering fuel supply, special gases, marine recovery platforms, and rocket manufacturing — a full chain synergy.

Overseas Macro

US AI giants issue $244 billion bonds, double last year, market says can’t take more. Tech AI arms race is pushing the bond market to its limits. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, etc., have issued $244 billion in bonds this year, more than double last year. Nvidia and Amazon’s recent $25B issues startled the market, and credit spreads are widening. Investors fear this cash-burning contest is far from over: more new bonds are on the way.

Yen and bonds rallied on pension rumors; Japanese officials: No plan to reallocate pension assets. FM Katayama’s hint on GPIF increasing domestic investments sparked bets on $1.8 trillion returning, causing a yen and bond rally. The government later cooled things, saying no formal allocation change planned; the market "greatly overreacted." Shows Japan’s market is ultra-sensitive to policy signals.

Korean gov: Will set up ‘Future Response Fund’, push for AI semi and other three super projects. President Lee Jae-myung said windfall taxes from AI-driven semi boom will fund a "Future Response Fund" focused on youth, growth engines, and local development; pushing hard on three "super projects": semis, data centers, and physical AI. "The gov will use all means to support companies investing on their own timelines."

6500: KOSPI approaches a key level. Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 9% Monday. Goldman says the cause is not fundamentals, but chain reaction delevering from single-stock leveraged ETF unwinding. 6,800 is key support — if lost, next stop is 6,500. Goldman still thinks this is liquidity-driven clearing out, and suggests buying storage and tech stocks on the dip.

Is the Korean market actually the ‘cheapest in history’? KOSPI is up over 70% this year but at record low valuations — forward P/E just 6.4, below 2008 crisis levels. Samsung and SK Hynix profit surge has driven biggest EPS jump in 17 years, but cycle peak risk looms, as DRAM prices likely peak in 2027.

India’s June CPI YoY surges to 4.38%, first time over 4% in 17 months. India's CPI hit 4.38% YoY in June, first time over RBI's 4% target in 17 months, mainly from food price rebound and global oil rise. Market thinks a single month won't change policy soon, staying on hold for now. Key for inflation outlook: global oil and monsoon rain patterns.

OPEC: UAE oil output in June soared 80%, Russia fell to lowest in two and a half years, global 2026 oil demand forecast lowered. UAE’s June oil output hit 3.8M barrels/day, up 1.71M from May. After quitting OPEC in May, UAE is no longer bound by quotas; it kept exports flowing during US-Iran conflict. Russia, due to Ukraine attacks, saw June output at 8.93M, 834k below quota. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780k barrels/day.

Strait "Rashomon" boosts hike bets, hedge fund gold longs fall to 115K. Continued US-Iran tensions and confusion in Hormuz shipping spur oil, inflation fears, and gold dropped over 1% to $4,073, down over 20% from its high, ending a 3-year bull run. Rising rate hike expectations pressure precious metals; Tuesday's Fed Chair Walsh’s debut and June CPI will be key for gold's short-term direction.

Overseas Companies

Samsung completes Tesla AI5 chip tape-out, mass production imminent. Tesla’s next-gen AI5 chip has completed tape-out, to be mass-produced using 2nm process at Samsung's Texas Taylor fab — the first super-large 2nm commercial foundry order for Samsung. Non-memory divisions lost about 600B won last quarter; with Tesla shipments next year, foundry may turn profitable, but yield remains the key.

I asked Grok to reply one word, it stole my whole codebase. xAI’s Grok CLI revealed to upload users’ entire codebase to the cloud without warning, even grabbing Claude config and API keys across directories. Even with a one-word reply, it uploaded code snapshots and sensitive files via a separate channel. Function was on by default; xAI shut it off remotely after exposure but gave no explanation. Exposes lack of AI Agent permission controls; user privacy is left "naked".

Industry/Concepts

1. Brain Science | According to Shanghai Securities News, on July 13, 14 ministries including the Ministry of Civil Affairs jointly announced the "Three-Year Action Plan for Expansion and Quality Improvement of Rehabilitation Assistive Device Industry (2026-2028)". The plan calls for promoting multi-scenario integration of "rehabilitation devices+", building "center + site" urban-rural networks, promoting leasing/sharing; on the industrial side, focus on cultivating leading and specialty companies in clusters like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Greater Bay Area, and advance intelligent manufacturing and green factories; for innovation, focus on brain-computer interfaces, care robots, bionic prostheses, and build national innovation platforms for results transformation.

Comment: Founder Securities believes brain-computer interfaces are likely to become next-gen core human-computer interaction tech and will transform how humans interact with machines. In the short run, applications will focus on medical rehabilitation; in the long-term, they will move to functional augmentation and integration.

2. Innovative Drugs | Shanghai Securities News reports, NMPA drug registration official on July 12 revealed that in H1 2026, China approved a total of 38 innovative drugs, 11 with new targets/mechanisms, all domestically developed. As of H1 this year, the value of Chinese innovative drug out-licensing deals nearly $110 billion, approaching last year's full-year $135.655B.

Comment: TF Securities says China’s innovative drugs in new target/mechanism segments are already leading in some fields; with continued policy support and product strength, domestic innovative drugs should continue to localize in the home market.

3. Domestic Chips | China Securities Journal reports, July 13, China's first AI chip using software-defined and 3D near-memory computing tech debuts at Shanghai Dongfang Suanxin. The chip, on a 14nm process, achieves 5.2 PFLOPS, with the key innovation in bottom-architecture — a high-end path not relying on advanced process nodes. It uses software definition and 3D stacking to tightly integrate compute and memory units, with 6.4TB/s bandwidth, breaking bottlenecks of "memory wall", "bandwidth wall", and "power wall".

Comment: Insiders say, as it doesn’t rely strictly on process scaling, the supply chain is more stable and controllable. Released alongside is a complete all-stack software toolchain, compatible with mainstream deep learning frameworks, with a complete product line from single accelerator cards, AI servers, liquid-cooled supernodes, to large AI clusters; it provides scalable, grounding AI computing for both training and inference.

4. Supernodes | According to China Securities Journal, 2026 World AI Conference is about to open, Huawei Ascend 950 Supernode will debut as the industry’s largest supernode. This marks Ascend’s new milestone in super-scale AI infra. Besides the flagship 950, Ascend will also show Atlas 850E air-cooled supernode.

Comment: Insiders say supernode (SuperPod) is the core tech of AI infra, breaking traditional clusters’ performance/efficiency bottlenecks. Through system-level scale-up, high-speed interconnects, and software-hardware synergy, supernode is a new engine for scaling AI. Key is higher efficiency, lower latency for trillion-parameter models, moving AI from thousands to tens of thousands of cards. With maturing optical interconnects and liquid cooling, supernodes will further cut cost and speed AI deployment.

Today's Key Events Preview

China June import/export data.

US June CPI.

US May long-term capital flows.

Fed Chair Walsh attends Congressional monetary policy hearing.

Fed Board hosts annual financial inclusion conference.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks.

Wall Street "Big Five" bank earnings: Goldman, Citi, BofA, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo.

World Cup semifinals: France vs Spain.

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks; investments must be cautious. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it consider the special investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```