Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 18, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 18, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Kimi K3 witnesses another “DeepSeek Moment”; renewed doubts in the market regarding returns on AI capital expenditures and the sustainability of chip demand. Nasdaq 100 plunged up to 2.7% in early trading but main indexes narrowed losses by the close, with both Nasdaq and S&P 500 down over 1%, and Dow down 0.8%. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 1.6%, down 20% from its record high, entering bear market territory.

Meta fell 2.8% during the day, leading the seven major tech stocks; Apple was the only gainer, up 0.14%, and up 5.84% for the week, with its market cap briefly regaining the top spot.

U.S. storage chip index dropped over 17% this week, retreating more than 31% from its record closing high. On the day, Applied Materials closed down 5.57%, SanDisk down 3.99%, Micron Technology down 0.50%, Western Digital up 2.23%, Seagate Technology up 5.66%. This week, SanDisk fell 29.29%, Western Digital decreased 18.09%, Seagate Technology dropped 13.48%, and Micron fell 13.31%.

U.S. Treasury bonds showed clear divergence. 2-year yields rose 4 basis points, 10-year yields remained basically flat at 4.55%.

Dollar index was flat for the day, but down 0.24% for the week. Bitcoin staged a “V” intraday, falling as much as 2.5% at one point.

Spot gold fell before rising, up 1.6% from the day's low, returning above $4,000. Escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions pushed WTI crude up 4.3% to $82.34 per barrel.

In Asia, Shanghai Composite lost the 3,800-point level, with power and banks rising against the trend; the ChiNext and STAR 50 fell over 7%, with pharma and chips deeply correcting, Hong Kong AI large-model stock Zhichu fell nearly 30%.

Headlines

China

Xi Jinping attended the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and Global Governance High-Level Meeting and delivered a keynote speech. Xi announced major initiatives by China to support the global development of AI. NDRC released the Action Plan for Collaborative Development of Artificial Intelligence, promoting inclusive intelligent computing power and open-source ecosystem sharing.

Kimi K3 stirs another “DeepSeek Moment”? Goldman Sachs warns: "Era of computing power expansion" may have ended; Morgan Stanley: China's frontier large models have achieved comprehensive catch-up, with simultaneous breakthroughs in scale, performance, and pricing.

Three ministries: Consumption tax to be restored on some batteries.

MIIT: Requires auto manufacturers to firmly resist irrational competition, strengthen product testing and safety evaluation.

Margin call concentration? Multiple brokers respond: No large-scale forced liquidations.

A-share heavy signal! Multiple broad-based ETFs saw significant volume increase! Large capital may once again step in.

Overseas

U.S. military carried out airstrikes on Iran for the seventh consecutive night; Iran attacked U.S. drones in Bahrain, warning of entry into the "full-scale attack and destruction" phase. U.S.-Iran conflict crosses "civilian red line," Hormuz traffic falls to a three-week low. Iran strikes targets inside Syria for the first time; U.S. media reveal the U.S. will deploy more aerial refueling tankers to Israel.

Japanese Prime Minister personally appeals to pension GPIF to ramp up Japanese stocks; yen strengthens and Japanese equities find renewed upside potential.

U.S. asks Korean chip giants: SK Hynix and Samsung’s “excess profits” may need to be shared with the U.S.

Report: META negotiating to lease computing power to ANTHROPIC, two-year contract may be worth up to $10 billion.

SpaceX postpones Starship’s maiden flight after IPO; share price drops over 5%, market cap evaporates over 1 trillion. SpaceX offers Pentagon billions in AI computing power.

 

Market Close Recap

U.S. and European stock markets: S&P 500 dropped 1.01% to 7,457.69, down 1.55% for the week. Dow declined 0.77% to 52,146.42, down 0.93% for the week. Nasdaq fell 1.40% to 25,520.244, down 2.90% for the week. Europe's STOXX 600 closed down 0.34% at 641.53, up 0.07% for the week.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 3,764.15, down 3.05%. Shenzhen Component closed at 13,706.88, down 5.40%. ChiNext closed at 3,428.63, down 7.15%.

Bonds: U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell 0.59 basis points to 4.5474%, down 1.38 basis points for the week. 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 3.58 basis points to 4.1767%, down 3.13 basis points for the week.

Commodities: Spot gold rose 1.00% to $4,016.21/oz, down 2.53% for the week. Spot silver up 0.69% to $55.9059/oz, down 6.62% for the week. WTI August crude futures up 4.48% to $82.49/barrel, up 15.51% for the week. Brent September crude futures up 4.59% to $88.10/barrel, up 15.90% for the week.

 

Headline Details

Global Highlights

China

Xi Jinping attended the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and Global Governance High-Level Meeting and delivered a keynote speech. Persisting in openness and win-win, driving innovative development. Seizing this rare historic opportunity, encouraging open-source, openness, cooperative sharing, comprehensively promoting AI technology innovation, industrial development, scenario application, jointly advancing the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, fostering emerging industries, and laying out future industry foresight, empowering AI across all sectors.

Xi Jinping announces major measures by China to support global AI development. Xi pointed out, with joint efforts, the World AI Cooperation Organization was born in Shanghai. This is China’s response to the call from the global South, a significant measure to unite the international community to promote AI development and governance, and will be a milestone in AI development history.

2026 World AI Conference and Global Governance High-Level Meeting Chairman's Statement. During the conference, the signing ceremony of the “Agreement to establish the World AI Cooperation Organization” was held in Shanghai. The World AI Cooperation Organization is the world’s first intergovernmental international organization for AI, headquartered in Shanghai. The organization upholds principles of goodwill and inclusiveness and aims to support global South countries to accelerate AI development, enhance innovation, application, and governance capabilities, catch up with the wave of technological revolution, and bridge the intelligence gap.

NDRC releases Action Plan for Collaborative Development of Artificial Intelligence, promoting inclusive computing power and open-source ecosystem sharing. The plan includes: high-quality data supply action, inclusive intelligent computing power action, open-source ecosystem sharing action, deep empowerment of AI action, joint cultivation of digital intelligence talent action, joint construction of rules and standards, collaborative security governance, and AI for good action.

Three ministries: Restore consumption tax on some batteries. Adjustment specifics: From September 1, 2026, non-mercury primary batteries, nickel metal hydride batteries, lithium primary batteries, lithium-ion batteries, all-vanadium flow batteries taxed at 2%, from September 1, 2027, taxed at 4%; from April 1, 2027, photovoltaic cells taxed at 2%, from April 1, 2028, taxed at 4%. Meanwhile, sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, and some photovoltaic cells are exempt within specified timeframes.

MIIT: Requires auto manufacturers to firmly resist irrational competition, strengthen product testing and safety evaluation. The conference calls for strengthened testing and safety evaluation, eliminating product safety risks, enhancing combination driving assistance and autonomous driving function safety evaluations. Next, MIIT will carry out production consistency and quality improvement actions, strengthen access review and supervision, and solemnly handle problematic companies and institutions, safeguarding the bottom line of vehicle product safety.

Margin call concentration? Multiple brokers respond: No large-scale forced liquidations. Indeed, some accounts hit warning lines or margin call lines, but forced liquidations are individual cases.

A-share heavy signal! Multiple broad-based ETFs saw significant volume increase! Large capital stepping in again? On the afternoon of July 17, multiple broad-based ETFs saw significant volume jumps, exceeding yesterday’s full-day turnover; several such as the HuaXia STAR 50 ETF also had significant volume increases, with amounts exceeding RMB 3 billion, close to yesterday’s daily level. Analysts believe this may signal mainstream large capital is supporting market liquidity via ETFs.

Overseas

U.S. military airstrikes on Iran for the seventh night, Iran attacks U.S. drones in Bahrain, warns entry into "full-scale attack and destruction" phase. U.S. military stated on Friday afternoon EST launched a new round of attacks on Iran. Iranian military claimed to use shore-based cruise missiles to strike a U.S. ship in the Indian Ocean; also attacked and destroyed a U.S. drone base in Bahrain. Iranian Supreme Leader’s military advisor said the U.S.-Iran MOU is essentially invalid; if the U.S. continues attacks in coming days, Iranian forces will transition from "deterrence and retaliation" to "full-scale attack and destruction."

U.S.-Iran conflict crosses "civilian red line", Hormuz traffic falls to three-week low, crude oil rose nearly 16% this week. Kuwait said Iran expanded attack range to Kuwait’s power and desalination plants. Iraqi officials said Kurdistan’s largest natural gas field shut due to attack threats. U.S. military extended airstrike targets to Chabahar port, 350 miles from Hormuz. Iranian news said a ship attempting to cross the strait without Iran’s permission was struck; U.S. claims six ships intercepted in three days of renewed blockade.

Middle East tensions escalate, Iran strikes targets within Syria for the first time, U.S. media reports America will boost refueling tankers for Israel. Iranian military said Friday it launched large-scale attacks on U.S. targets in Kuwait and Syria, in response to Thursday’s U.S. attack on Iran; U.S. military denied Iranian attacks on Tanf base in Syria; Syrian sources said Iran did not hit the base, and there were no casualties. U.S. media reports the U.S. plans to send dozens more tankers to Israel in the coming days, restoring numbers to early-war levels, seen as preparing for possible larger actions. News expanded crude oil’s gain to over 4% intraday.

Japanese Prime Minister appeals directly to pension GPIF to increase Japanese stock holdings, yen strengthens, Japanese stocks gain renewed momentum. Sanae Takaichi said encouraging households and pension funds (including GPIF) to further increase Japanese financial asset holdings is “vital,” emphasizing this aims to generate a virtuous cycle between economic growth and resident asset accumulation. This statement briefly strengthened the yen against the dollar from near 162.36 to 162.13.

U.S. asks Korean chip giants: SK Hynix and Samsung’s “excess profits” may need to be shared with the U.S.. Besides requiring Samsung and SK Hynix to build factories in the U.S., the U.S. also proposes sharing profits, arguing U.S. procurement drove their earnings. If true, the U.S.-Korea semiconductor spat extends from manufacturing investment to profit distribution, imposing new policy pressure on Korean chip giants.

Report: META negotiating to lease computing power to ANTHROPIC, two-year contract worth up to $10 billion. Media reports Meta is negotiating with Anthropic PBC to rent computing power; if successful, deal may reach $10 billion over two years. Meta fell as much as 6% in early trading, rebounded after the news, ending down 2.3% at press time.

SpaceX market cap evaporates over 1 trillion! IPO’s Starship maiden flight postponed, every second of the countdown becomes a "public earnings report". SpaceX Starship V3 test aborted before launch due to engine ignition failure; plans to relaunch early next week. SpaceX shares closed down 5.43% Friday, market cap at $1.63 trillion, down over $1 trillion from the June 16 peak of $2.64 trillion. On the same day, SpaceX offers Pentagon billions in AI computing power.

Research Highlights

Kimi K3 stirs another “DeepSeek Moment”? Goldman warns: "Era of computing power expansion" may have ended. Kimi K3 scored 1,679 to top the code competition arena, surpassing Claude Fable 5, sparking the global tech stock shakeup. Before market open, Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 1.8%, Nvidia led the “big tech seven” down. Goldman defines market decline as a "deleveraging event", suggesting "computing power expansion era" is nearing its end, AI valuation logic facing reset.

Kimi K3 leaps ahead, Morgan Stanley: China’s frontier large models achieve comprehensive catch-up, breakthroughs in scale, performance, and pricing. Morgan Stanley sees K3’s launch as marking comprehensive catch-up on model scale, performance, and API pricing versus U.S. leaders; a milestone for China’s AI sector advancing into the global top tier. Morgan expects China will keep producing larger, more expensive, and higher performance models, forming strong global competition.

Korea leads the reversal, momentum trades sweep Asia. Korea is at the epicenter of Asia’s momentum trade breakdown, with foreign investors net selling over $100 billion this year. Retail investors amplified declines by filling the vacuum left by foreigners, leverage ETF forced liquidation accelerating the drop. This reversal is spreading from Seoul to global chip stocks; some analysts see June as peak momentum for Asia stocks. KOSPI volatility soared to record highs, indicating further downside risk remains.

Focus on the single most important AI trading indicator — Micron! Micron is dubbed “the most important stock in the market” by Trivariate Research, as the core indicator for AI trends and risk appetite. Despite concerns about storage chip prices and share retracement, institutions think it’s undervalued; AI demand and tight memory supply/demand are expected to support long-term growth.

OpenAI’s large model price war — history already wrote the outcome. In ten days, four overseas AI giants slashed prices, Altman calling for "another 75% off," while Anthropic remains silent. Price cutters incur giant losses; high price sellers make profits. This isn’t an ordinary price war—it’s the life-and-death battle between flywheel and pump. The script has already been written, with time counting down.

Domestic Macro

Private equity stock positions hit a four-year high, over 70% of 10-billion funds are fully invested. Private placement web data shows as of July 10, private equity position index rose to 83.70%, increasing for three weeks and hitting a four-year high; nearly 70% of funds are fully invested. Among them, 10-billion yuan funds led the additions, positions reaching 87.41%, up 3.35% in a week. Analysts say the data shows professional investors judge that security margin is high and opportunities outweigh risks.

Big short Burry: Now is the perfect time to bottom-fish Hong Kong stocks. "The Big Short" model Michael Burry bullishly calls Hong Kong stocks, saying now is the "perfect time" to find undervalued chips, and has quietly added JD.com. Goldman’s Asia capital market head also says Hong Kong has entered the AI era, but index structure delays the real vitality. Morgan Stanley also joins the bullish chorus. As bulls and bears battle, whether value depressions and structural opportunities translate to real returns tests investors’ judgment.

Domestic Companies

Report: Zhichu’s ARR reaches $1 billion, up 15x in half a year. As of July 2026, Zhichu's ARR has reached $1 billion. Analysts say Zhichu reached $1 billion ARR faster than expected; some investors expected it to hit $1–1.5 billion only by end 2026.

Target price doubled to RMB 2,581! Goldman: Nvidia drives demand for 3.2T optical modules, Zhongji Xuchuang revalued. Goldman hiked Zhongji Xuchuang’s target price from RMB 1,187 to 2,581, projecting net profit growth of 65%, 108%, and 119% in 2026–2028. As Nvidia’s AI servers keep upgrading, optical modules are accelerating from 800G to 1.6T, even 3.2T. With first-mover advantage in silicon photonics and leading global position, Zhongji Xuchuang is poised to gain from this upgrade cycle.

Report: New Doubao phone stocked in tens of thousands, AI no longer operates top apps via hard GUI. The new Doubao phone changed its cooperation model with Alibaba, Tencent, and other super apps; no longer reads screens or simulates clicks like humans (GUI) after user authorization. Apps must provide MCP service, open some data, and allow control for Doubao to access MCP. Stocking increased from 30,000 to tens of thousands. Doubao’s assistant team is negotiating with top app makers for AI-callable interfaces/services.

Why is Moutai raising prices again now? Explanation here. Kweichow Moutai is raising Flying Moutai prices on iMoutai platform from RMB 1,539 to 1,639 from July 18. There's a notable gap between iMoutai retail and terminal transaction prices; this adjustment anchors market circulation price as reference, aiming to shrink speculation and facilitate fair buying by consumers.

CSSC Special Gas semiannual report: revenue up 83%, parent net profit doubled, tungsten hexafluoride revenue up nearly 3x. Tungsten hexafluoride revenue surged nearly threefold, driving first-half revenue to RMB 1.904 billion (+83%), parent net profit RMB 348 million (+96%), non-recurring net profit up 117%; Q2 growth soared from Q1’s 36% to 129%. Profit growth far exceeded revenue, improving quality, but operating cash flow turned negative to -241 million. Continued monitoring needed for capital pressure behind high growth.

Overseas Macro

Canada wildfires rampant, Trump threatens to count pollution costs into tariffs. Around 900 wildfires burning in Canada, large amounts of smoke drift south, covering U.S. northeast and Midwest, with air quality index plummeting, Detroit topping the global worst list. Trump threatens to include pollution losses in tariffs against Canada and says he will call PM Carney. News led to mild volatility in CAD and Canadian stocks; markets await call outcome and policy response.

Oil price drop drives U.S. consumer sentiment to five-month high in July; one-year inflation expectation falls to 4.2%. University of Michigan preliminary July consumer sentiment index rose from 49.5 in June to 54.4, beating expectations (51). Consumers expect one-year inflation at 4.2%, prior 4.4%, previous 4.6%. However, 70% of survey responses were before early July U.S. airstrikes on Iran; after that oil prices rebounded.

Cleveland Fed President Hemak: Inflation too high, labor market near full employment. Hemak said: "Our dual mandate doesn’t conflict. Inflation remains too high and the labor market is close to full employment." She also noted, for the first time, hearing enterprises ask for inflation control, and for the first time consumers expressing desperation over survival difficulties.

DoubleLine CIO: Walsh is not a "hawk in dove’s clothing", bond market has "done Fed’s tightening for it". DoubleLine CIO Jeffrey Sherman says bonds have quietly completed some tightening for the Fed—yield curve steepened, markets now price in rate hikes, new Fed Chair Walsh may stay put. Meanwhile, June core CPI showed first negative MoM since 2020; one-year inflation swaps briefly fell below 2%. But AI demand and wealth effect keep pushing core PCE, "investment grade" narrative for private credit faces doubts, CCC asset risks surge under the surface.

ECB may hold off rate hikes next week; market bets focus on September. Market generally expects ECB to keep rate at 2.25% on July 23, but attention will be on signals about September hikes. Recent Middle East conflict raised energy prices; tighter Middle East fertilizer supply and European heatwaves may push up food prices, adding inflation uncertainty. The meeting may also discuss doubling minimum reserve requirements, and continued slow liquidity tightening.

Overseas Companies

Facing doomsday talk, Altman admits: OpenAI performed poorly past 12 months, “mainly my fault”. Addressing doubts on AI bubble and business model, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman admitted poor performance over the past year and took responsibility, but promised next year will be the best ever. Bear Ed Zitron previously warned the real bubble is “OpenAI bubble”; if it fails, it’ll shock AI investment logic like "Lehman Brothers," triggering data center and tech stock revaluations.

Micron signs long-term agreements with Qualcomm and others to secure AI automotive memory supply. Micron AI chips enter automotive track, partnering with Qualcomm and other giants to seize “software-defined car” opportunity. But undercurrents in the AI fervor: worries about cloud spending slowdowns have led Wall Street to reduce semiconductor exposure, as chip stock games hit deeper waters.

Report: Apple negotiating early settlement of antitrust case with U.S. DOJ. Talks are early stage, no guarantee of agreement, and no court date. DOJ’s number three official, Stanley Woodward, advocates active settlement. If successful, Apple will eliminate major legal uncertainty.

Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo face waves of redemptions: turning point for $3 trillion private credit market. Rising defaults trigger withdrawals, Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo all restrict redemptions as liquidity in the $3 trillion private credit market dries up. Underlying loans lack trading markets, funds can’t quickly liquidate and Q2 redemption pressures are mounting. Forced asset sales at discounts will mean pension, insurance capital face real losses, while AI data centers’ financing channels tighten in parallel.

Today's Forward-Looking Headlines

AGI Summit SF 2026, OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia to attend.

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