Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 28, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 28, 2026

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The Voice of Huajian Good Morning

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Market Overview

All three major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq up as much as 1%. However, reports of potential technological breakthroughs that could accelerate China's chip industry, as well as concerns about Nvidia's circular financing, caused the indices to reverse and decline at the open. The Nasdaq 100 sank more than 1% intraday, though losses narrowed by the close. The Dow and small caps closed higher, S&P 500 ended flat. The semiconductor sector led the decline. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 5% at one point, ending down 2%. Nvidia plunged 5%, ASML fell over 5%.

The U.S. memory stock sector remained weak: Micron dropped 2.25%, SK Hynix plunged 10%, breached its IPO price, and Western Digital tumbled 11%.

Chinese concept stocks rose against the market, up 2.5%. Xiaomi ADR rose 8.97%, Tencent Holdings and Alibaba both climbed over 2%.

U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, but short-term bonds underperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to flatten. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 2.3 basis points, 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.4 basis points to 4.647%.

The dollar V-shaped recovery, rebounding over 0.4% from its intraday low. Bitcoin edged up 0.34% from late Sunday, and Ethereum surged up to 6% from Friday morning trading.

Gold spiked higher before giving back some gains, rising 0.5% but failing to stay above $4,100. WTI crude oil plunged 8% to around $81, and Brent crude also plunged but held above $90.

In Asia, Changxin Technology surged 465% on its first trading day, turnover exceeded 140 billion, ChiNext Index rose 3%, computing hardware rallied in the afternoon, Hang Seng Technology Index jumped over 1%, and Xiaomi surged over 7%.

Top News

China

Spokesperson from the Ministry of Commerce answers questions on the U.S. "forced labor" 301 investigation's final measures.

Profits of China's above-scale industrial firms grew 15.1% year-on-year in June, with the electronics industry rising 96.9% in the first half of the year.

The bond market fee reduction package is here; the China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd announced a reduction in some of its main business fees, including waiving the issuance registration service fees for international (Panda) bonds, among five measures.

Changxin Technology's market cap soared to 3 trillion yuan, opening 471% higher, with a winning lot earning 20,000 yuan—ushering in a new A-share IPO king. Changxin's market cap surpasses Intel, is more than double Moutai's, Alibaba invested 7.6 billion, and floats profit over 160 billion.

Deal pricing at 25.12 billion yuan; merger and restructuring proposal of "Orient Securities + Shanghai Securities" released.

In one day, 20 A-share companies announced buybacks; Foxconn Industrial Internet bought 2 billion in 3 months, with banks entering the buyback pool for the first time.

Overseas

Trump: Halting strikes against Iran gives negotiations another chance; talks may yield results, but if not, will "fight big again."

U.S. core capital goods orders grew beyond expectations, with the AI spending boom supporting investment in the first half.

Report: The Trump administration is about to finalize a voluntary AI supervision framework. Altman lobbied in Washington: will demonstrate OpenAI model capabilities, responding to open model and security controversies.

China's DRAM giant shakes up global landscape, U.S.-listed memory chip stocks plunge, SK Hynix breached IPO price, Western Digital almost halved in a month.

Nvidia's circular financing raises alarms: CDS spread hits record high, shares plunge 5%, Apple regains top market capitalization. Nvidia is providing OpenAI data centers with $250 billion of guarantees, AI infrastructure enters new stage of binding.

The former OpenAI chief scientist receives "heavy bet" from Nvidia, safe superintelligence leaps in computing power.

After moving sideways for July, up 20% and near a new high, Apple options flash "bullish" signals before earnings.

 

Market Recap

U.S. and European Stocks: S&P 500 up 0.02% to 7413.18. Dow up 0.51% to 52210.08. Nasdaq down 0.18% to 24932.081. European STOXX 600 up 0.02%, hitting day low at 644.62.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite 3858.25 (+1.15%), Shenzhen Component 14148.73 (+2.72%), ChiNext 3590.79 (+3.16%).

Bonds: U.S. 10Y Treasury yield down 3.65 bps to 4.6406%. 2Y down 1.05 bps to 4.3201%.

Commodities: WTI September crude down 7.50% to $82.61/bbl. Brent September down 8.70% to $88.36/bbl. Spot gold up 0.60% to $4076.96/oz. Spot silver up 0.40% to $58.4075/oz.

 

News Details

Global Highlights

China

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers questions on the US "forced labor" 301 investigation's final measures. China consistently opposes forced labor, has established a sound labor law system, and is resolute in preventing and combating forced labor. In contrast, the U.S. has not ratified the 1930 Forced Labor Convention, and continually manipulates the "forced labor" topic. This 301 investigation and unilateral tariff imposition under the pretext of "forced labor" is a typical unilateralist, protectionist act, which China firmly opposes.

China June above-scale industrial enterprise profits up 15.1% YoY, electronics industry profit up 96.9% in H1. Total profits of national scale industrial enterprises (Jan–Jun): 3.94799 trillion yuan, up 18.7% YoY.

Heavy in the bond market! Fee-cut red packet arrives. According to Shanghai Securities News, the China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. reduces main business fees, including five new measures such as waiving international (Panda) bond issuance registration service fees. This move directly reduces costs for issuers and investors, cuts trading friction and mediator costs in the secondary market, and boosts the appeal, liquidity, activity, and capital turnover efficiency of the bond market.

Changxin Technology's market cap shoots toward 3 trillion yuan, opens 471% higher, new IPO king on A-share market! Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market (Sci-Tech Innovation Board), opening up 471.59%, total market cap reaching 3.31 trillion yuan, surpassing ICBC to become the largest A-share by market cap, and the floating profit per winning lot exceeds 20,000 yuan. Turnover exceeded 100 billion within the first hour, setting a single-day trading record. Northeast Securities valuation range: 3.2–5.7 trillion yuan; Nomura target price 116 yuan, value ~7.76 trillion.

Deal priced at 25.12 billion yuan, merger proposal for Orient Securities + Shanghai Securities announced. After the deal, Orient Securities' total assets will break 600 billion yuan, entering the industry's top 10. Beyond scale, the merger is also about internal resilience and external integration, exploring differentiation as industry concentration rises and Shanghai accelerates international financial center construction.

Twenty A-share companies announce buybacks in a day; Foxconn Industrial Internet bought 2 billion in 3 months; bank funds enter buyback pool. Shiyun Circuit and Honggong Technology disclosed arrangements for bank-specialized repurchase loans; CCB provided Shiyun with a 270 million loan commitment. Most buybacks are for equity incentive or employee shareholding plans rather than capital reduction. ST Zhongzhu's second-largest shareholder plans to raise holdings by up to 40 million shares, Zhongsheng High Tech's shareholder intends to add at least 30 million yuan.

Overseas

Trump: Halting strikes against Iran gives negotiations another chance; talks may yield results, if not, "fight big again". Trump asserts U.S.-Iran talks are "very in-depth"; plenty of time to reach an agreement. Possibility for outcome caused S&P to bounce. Mediation talks focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming the comprehensive nuclear deal; progress reported. Iran: U.S. can't decide when to fight or stop. Israeli PM heads to U.S. to discuss Iran; Trump says they differ somewhat; U.S. media report he will meet separately with the Israeli PM and Zelensky on Tuesday at the White House.

Mixed signals on U.S.-Iran talks: Tehran denies, Washington says "leave room for peace", Saudi Aramco oil and gas facility suspected drone attack. U.S.-Iran in a fragile truce but strong differences. U.S. pauses airstrikes, trying to allow negotiations; internal U.S. divisions over resumption of hostilities; Iran denies negotiations, maintains a tough counter posture. Meanwhile, Aramco's critical Abqaiq oil facility suspected attacked and caught fire, risking a major shock to global oil supply and energy markets.

Behind the U.S.-Iran attack pause: Iran says progress made in Hormuz Strait shipping management talks with Oman, U.S. low on munitions. The truce is due to U.S. ammo shortage and diplomatic efforts. On one hand, Iran and Oman held productive deputy foreign minister-level talks on safe Hormuz shipping; on the other, Pentagon concerned about the rapid depletion of U.S. defense interceptors in the Middle East, limiting the scale of U.S. strikes.

Greenspan "conundrum" reappears; will Waller hike rates to drive down long-term yields? Waller faces whether to use rate hikes to push long-term rates lower. Though a rate hike this week is not baseline, expectations are rising. History shows ("Greenspan conundrum") that tough Fed hikes can build anti-inflation credibility and lower long-term inflation premiums, leading to lower mortgage rates—matching Trump administration goals. But price moderation and internal reviews still limit near-term shifts.

Is wage slowdown just a statistical illusion? The NAIRU curse remains; Fed's high rates far from the end. U.S. labor market sends mixed signals: low unemployment and historic low jobless claims show tightness, but wage growth slowed to pre-pandemic levels. Analysis suggests the wage slowdown is structural drag from private education and healthcare, and excluding those, wage growth remains robust. The labor market still pressures inflation, justifying the Fed’s high rates.

U.S. core capital goods orders beat expectations, AI boom supports H1 investment. In June, core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and defense) rose 0.9% MoM, beating 0.7% forecast; May revised up to 1.9%. Shipments rose 1.9% MoM, far exceeding the 0.6% expected, showing strong investment activity.

Report: Trump Admin Set to Finalize Voluntary AI Supervision Framework. Two weeks ago, the White House National Cyber Director's Office distributed a draft to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google; all three offered revisions.

Altman lobbies in Washington: Will showcase OpenAI model capabilities, responds to open model/security debates. OpenAI CEO Altman will meet with top Trump officials and lawmakers this week, discussing forthcoming AI model abilities, open-weight model regulation, cybersecurity events, AI agent tech trends, and impact on labor productivity.

China's DRAM giant disrupts global pattern, U.S. memory chip shares plunge, SK Hynix below IPO, Western Digital nearly halved in a month. On Monday, Western Digital fell over 10%, lost $170B market cap in a month; SK Hynix ADRs fell 10%, Micron dropped over 7%. Most institutions still think Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung's lead in AI memory remains unshaken short term. Some analysts believe the memory chip drop is a new opportunity.

Nvidia's circular financing concerns: record jump in CDS, shares drop 5%, Apple back to market cap No. 1. Nvidia caught up in a $750 billion AI infrastructure bet, CDS spread jumped 14 bps to a record. Nvidia shares dropped 5% on Monday. Apple, with disciplined capex, performed well with shares up 24% this year, up 1.2% Monday, market cap $4.93T—overtaking Nvidia’s $4.78T.

Nvidia to guarantee $250B financing for OpenAI data centers, deepening AI infrastructure ties. Nvidia to provide up to $250B in guarantees supporting SoftBank's 10GW super data center in Ohio. This ends rumors that "Nvidia was cutting support to OpenAI." Nvidia's move from equity investment to project finance assures massive future compute orders for OpenAI, while avoiding valuation disputes.

Binding SK Group and OpenAI! Nvidia engaged in a $750B bet, AI "circular financing" warning rings again. Nvidia is driving over $750B in new AI deals (includes $500B with SK, $250B with OpenAI leasing). These deals deepen supply and client ties, but as Nvidia is all of supplier, investor, and guarantor, the risk of "circular financing" and systemic amplification is under scrutiny again.

Ex-OpenAI chief scientist heavily backed by Nvidia; safe superintelligence gains big leap in compute. Nvidia announced a $5B investment in SSI, a mysterious AI lab led by ex-OpenAI CSO Ilya Sutskever, with long-term compute deals boosting its capacity tenfold. This not only accelerates SSI's research, but also lets Nvidia capture the world’s top AI labs via "investment + GPU," further consolidating its AI compute dominance.

After sideways July, Apple surges 20% to near record high, options show "bullish" sign ahead of earnings. Ahead of Apple's results, options show rare bullish signals—institutions are buying deep-in-the-money calls, speculative funds expect new highs, implied vol at 1-year high. With Big Tech earnings under pressure, market bets on Apple as the new U.S. stock "stabilizer".

Featured Research

CICC: How many pre-crashes did the Internet bubble have? CICC notes the tech sector had 4 corrections before the 2000 collapse, all due to industrial bumps, macro disturbance, and over-excitement; rebounds were driven by industrial catalysts, easing policy, and valuation digestion. The current AI correction is similar; digesting high valuations is not a bad thing. Stabilization needs macro tightening to ease, but the core remains new sector catalysts—short-term focus on bottlenecked assets such as power and chips.

AI bull market's biggest enemy is not a bubble, but the bond market? BofA's Hartnett's latest warning. Hartnett argues bonds now pose the biggest threat to the AI bull. 30Y Treasury yield at 5.2% (the highest since 2007), real yields 3%, financial conditions tighten beyond corporate earnings support. Cloud giants’ CDS hit record levels; bondholders question AI capex logic. If the bond supply dries up and forces the Fed to hike, a new deleverage round for risk assets may start.

Besides the election, what's really holding the US stock market down now? Goldman Sachs believes the main risk isn't the midterm election, but the sharp rise in real rates and historically low stock correlations, causing structural volatility. If nominal rates jump to ~5% quickly or real rates to ~2.7%, stocks will face serious headwinds. Before the election, stocks tend to range trade; after, as uncertainty recedes, a rally usually follows.

Famed Silicon Valley VC warns: If open source AI is banned, cost pressure may collapse the US stock market. VC Chamath Palihapitiya warns a forced move from open to closed AI models would cause costs to jump 50–100 times, severely hurting earnings and valuations, and potentially causing systemic market shocks. The regulatory battle around open-source AI is escalating.

Gold: What's it waiting for? Shenwan Macro says gold has rarely fallen 25% since March, bottoming in June but not bouncing—RSI at second lowest since 2022, non-commercial positions in the 10th percentile, but no rebound yet. A strong dollar isn't fatal, and central bank gold buying remains steady; the real barrier is high rate hike expectations and a "second oil price peak" risk. Gold’s next catalyst will require patience.

Domestic Companies

Same founder! Changxin surges while Gigadevice hits trading limit, Zhu Yiming's net worth may see its biggest revaluation. Changxin’s stock soared over 530% on its listing debut, topping A-shares with a market value over 3.6 trillion, while Gigadevice, also founded by Zhu Yiming, hit its limit down. Between the extremes, Zhu’s fortune rose from 12 billion RMB on the Hurun list to a possible 93 billion.

Kimi K3 Open Day: Model weights, technical reports, and key Infra technologies open-sourced simultaneously. Moonshot AI released the model weights and technical report for Kimi K3, and open-sourced key infra for Kimi K3 training: MoonEP, FlashKDA, and AgentEnv, free to download and deploy.

Report: Zhongji InnoLight Hong Kong IPO priced at HKD 980, listing and options trading this Thursday. Priced about 3% below top indicated price and 19% below A-share, raising about HKD 53.4 billion (up to 61B with green shoe), biggest HK IPO in seven years. Heavy demand, institutional subscriptions closed early, oversubscribed several times. Official trading July 30, with options also available.

Report: Samsung considers using China-made DRAM to lower Galaxy A series costs. Facing "chipflation" and expected MX division losses, Samsung is evaluating using low-cost Chinese mobile DRAM in its mid-to-low-end Galaxy A series to cut costs. This move aims to take advantage as rivals cut back due to rising costs, boosting profit and recapturing China market share.

Laupo Gold expects H1 revenue up 60–66% YoY, net profit up 83–85%. Laupo expects total sales revenue (inc. tax) to reach 22.7–23.35B yuan in H1 2026, up 60–65% YoY; income 19.8–20.45B yuan, up 60–66%; adjusted net profit 4.31–4.36B yuan, up 83–85%.

Overseas Macro

US Treasuries "forcing Waller's hand": Hawkish talk isn't enough, market expects a hike. U.S.-Iran tensions sent oil prices up, inflation fears high, Treasury yields jumped, stocks slumped. Despite Fed Chair Waller’s hawkish talk, the market wants action. Prob of no rate hike this week is 62%, but hike odds have jumped from about 13% a week ago to 38%. High fiscal deficit and tech giants issuing debt pose dual challenges for the Fed.

BofA: August could start the US stock market's "toughest three months" this year. August–October has historically been weak for U.S. stocks, with average S&P 500 returns near zero; defensive assets like USD, Treasuries, gold, and energy tend to do well. The late-summer pullback risk may set stage for a strong rally from November onward.

Indian central bank intervenes to support the rupee; biggest one-day jump in over a month. On Monday, the RBI sold dollars heavily in the FX market, and with falling oil and USD, plus the governor’s positive foreign investment comments, the rupee rose 0.8% vs USD to 95.7838, the biggest single-day gain since June 15. Yet, due to Mideast import inflation risks, the rupee still underperforms most Asian currencies in July.

Overseas Companies

AI infrastructure arms race accelerates: Nvidia launches Spectrum-6, compute enters the gigawatt era. Nvidia launched Spectrum-6, a 102.4T next-gen Ethernet switch for Vera Rubin platform and gigawatt-level AI factories. Used by Microsoft, Tesla, etc., it boosts network efficiency and performance, solving hyperscale GPU cluster traffic bottlenecks.

After nearly going bankrupt, Nvidia's Jensen Huang understood the most important lesson for entrepreneurs. Huang says AI is reshaping all of computing; the key for youth is not "writing code" but abstract system thinking and "hard science." For corporate management, stick to the founder model, don't blindly trust traditional management, build your company like "an F1 car you can drive to win."

Bain Capital cashes out about 2.5 trillion yen, exits Kioxia as SK Hynix quietly rises as No. 2 shareholder. Bain cashes out 2.5T yen, a record Japan fund return. Memory giant shareholding reshuffle: Toshiba regains largest shareholder, SK Hynix covertly becomes No. 2 via convertible bonds, making 40T KRW profit, but future equity conversion depends on antitrust and Japanese regulatory hurdles.

Samsung confirms HBM5 will use 2nm GAA tech, over 50% faster than HBM4E. Samsung officially revealed HBM5 core tech: next-gen high-bandwidth memory on 2nm GAA process, 50%+ speed boost vs HBM4E, big power efficiency gains. Tesla ordered auto-grade 2nm, AI/cloud orders growing—key to retaking HBM leadership.

Anthropic considers requiring all employees to sell stock on a fixed plan post-IPO, breaking sector norms. As Anthropic preps its IPO, it may require all staff (not just execs) to sell shares via preset windows, to prevent insider trading, keep internal transparency, and smooth stock sales’ impact. Lawyers say this limits freedom but reflects a new compliance trend among tech startups.

LVMH Q2 fashion/leather sales grow for first time in two years but miss estimates, Middle East conflict cuts organic group revenue by 1% growth. LVMH Q2 organic revenue up 3%; ex-Mideast conflict, up 4%. Fashion/leather up 1% YoY in Q2, first positive in two years but short of 1.52% estimate. New creative director’s debut well received. Jewelry leads, watches/jewelry up 11%. Operating margin held at 22.5% in H1, CEO tackles H2 "with more confidence," but shares fell 1.8% on results.

Industry/Concepts

1. Glass Substrate Packaging | According to Shanghai Securities News, on the evening of July 27, Kaisheng Technology announced the start of TGV advanced packaging, glass via, and metal filling tech R&D since 2024. To industrialize these technologies, a TGV advanced glass packaging pilot line will be built in the Bengbu High-Tech Zone as part of the UTG Phase II project. The pilot line’s total investment is about 150 million yuan.

Comment: Northeast Securities believes, as AI training/inference demand rises, chip size and power consumption rise sharply. With growing problems for traditional substrates (warping, cooling), glass substrate is expected to be an important direction, especially in HPC, CPO, 3D packaging, high-end consumer electronics, etc. The key process nodes are TGV, metallization, via filling, and circuit fabrication on glass, and the market has big opportunities.

2. VC (Vinylene Carbonate) | Shanghai Securities News reports that on July 27, the price of vinylene carbonate (VC), a key electrolyte raw material, rose 10% in one day to 220,000 yuan/ton—a new high. Last week, VC rose 11%. Since July, up ~37.5%.

Comment: Guosheng Securities thinks VC is a crucial electrolyte additive with rigid demand; addition per cell is growing. VC is a core additive for lithium battery SEI layer, boosting cycle life, performance at high/low temps, and safety. As per GGII, strong downstream production and improved fast-charging capability directly increase VC demand. In ternary batteries, content rose by 0.5–1 ppts; in LFP batteries, VC addition is over triple initial levels. New battery-safety standard in July 2026 will require cells resisting thermal runaway for 2h, likely hiking VC further. VC supply is inelastic, and capacity additions have been scarce. Due to high process/safety requirements, output can’t quickly match demand. As a hazardous chemical, VC lines require frequent checks and strict environmental compliance; new facilities take over a year to build.

3. Memory (DRAM) | According to China Securities News, memory module maker Apacer says as the top three global DRAM players refocus new capacity on AI, general supply keeps tightening, and supply/demand imbalance won't quickly ease. Over 70% of new capacity dedicated to HBM, server DDR5, LPDDR5X for AI; less supply for standard DDR5, DDR4, industrial markets. DRAM allocated to module makers will fall further, with prices rising—imbalance may persist at least through H1 2027.

Comment: Over 70% of new capacity is shifted to AI products, starving regular DDR/industrial memory. HBM's complex stacking and long ramp-up limited new supplied product. Agencies and vendors forecast: As long as AI investment stays hot, the "pricy and scarce" imbalance will last through H1 2027; recovery in H2 2027 depends on manufacturers' ramp and demand shift.

4. Photovoltaic | CSN reports the industry cost accounting standard for photovoltaics is released, establishing a unified cost calculation framework for the whole chain ("poly-silicon—wafer—cell—module"). This replaces inconsistent standards and self-reporting across the industry. It's a key step to move PV management from self-discipline to institutionalized and standardized status.

Comment: The PV sector is in a cycle adjustment, some product prices under pressure. The new rule aims to entrench standardized cost language, guiding firms away from price-driven to value-driven growth, shifting more resources to R&D, quality, and branding. The standard will help China PV solidify its technical and scale edge.

5. Aluminum | CSN reports that as of July 24, 2026, LME aluminum inventories fell to 271,275 tons, the lowest this century and since Jan 1998 records began. At ~271k tonnes, cover barely one day of global demand, so buffer stock is essentially exhausted, exposing structural vulnerability.

Comment: The drop comes as aluminum output in the Mideast is limited by geopolitical conflict and risks of Hormuz Strait shipping disruption. Downstream users, to maintain supplies, drew rapidly from LME stocks, accelerating depletion. Experts believe the low inventories will further underpin global aluminum prices.

Today's Lookahead

US July Conference Board consumer confidence.

US May 20-city house price index.

US June goods trade balance.

KLA, Corning, Seagate Tech, Coca-Cola, Boeing results.

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' special investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any views, opinions, or conclusions herein suit their particular situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```