Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | July 4, 2026

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The Morning Voice of Huajian

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Market Overview

AI worries eased, US stock market closed, Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded over 1%; Tech stocks rebounded, propping up pan-European stocks for two consecutive record highs, best weekly performance in over a month, rising for four weeks straight; European tech sector rose over 1%, chip stocks ASML up 3.6%, Aixtron up 6%; military stocks eye-catching all week, industrial sector up 5.6% weekly.

The US dollar index during trading hours nearly touched two-week lows post non-farm payrolls, then erased losses and stabilized; yen hit two-week high then fell, lost 161 against the US dollar; offshore RMB broke 6.79, highest in over a week; cryptocurrencies kept rising, bitcoin broke $62,000 rising over 2% from daily low, ethereum up over 10% on the week.

Brent oil rebounded slightly for two consecutive days, down for four consecutive weeks, longest streak in nearly two years. Spot gold rose nearly 2% during trading to a weekly high, weekly bounce over 2%, reversing four-week losing streak. Middle East risk premium faded, London aluminum under pressure, down almost 3% for the week, London tin up over 4% for the week.

In Asia, China's three main stock indices rose slightly, Hang Seng up 1.28%, robot industry chain led surge, gold stocks performed strongly.

Headlines

China

State Council issued “15th Five-Year Plan for Beautiful China”, setting a goal of comprehensive ecological improvement by 2030.

Three departments: From next year, car-ship tax reduction policy for energy-saving vehicles will be canceled, canceling new energy vehicle exemptions for PHEV/RE and other models.

NDRC announced domestic oil product prices will be cut from Saturday, biggest drop of the year, first "triple decline" this year.

China's June RatingDog Services PMI slightly fell to 54.1, still near three-year highs, new business exports hit annual highs.

Going head-to-head with Anthropic? Media reports Alibaba will ban internal use of Claude Code.

Unitree Technology Sci-Tech Innovation board IPO registration takes effect, A-shares robotics sector surged, over 40 stocks hit trading limits.

Memory giant J&W Dragon first half net profit exploded, projected to increase 62,204% to 74,394%.

Overseas

Iran held funeral for late Supreme Leader, He Wei represented China at the event, Saudi delegation unexpectedly appeared, Iran reiterated "joint management" of Strait of Hormuz with Oman.

Trump on AI regulation: wants guardrails, but "the fewer the better".

Eurozone economy June "bottomed out": Composite PMI returned to 50, German data unexpectedly "saved the day".

Russian President's spokesperson: Putin announced Russian forces "completely liberated" Luhansk.

Media survey: OPEC June output surged by 2.34 million barrels/day, oil market reverts to "oversupply" trade.

Samsung discusses cooperation, SK Hynix expands production, Kioxia samples NAND, Japan and South Korea stock markets responded to computing power overcapacity fears with a V-shaped rebound.

Market Closing Report

US & European Stocks: US market closed. Europe STOXX 600 up 0.68%, at 652.77 points, total weekly increase 2.66%.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 0.37%, at 4043.64pt. Shenzhen Composite up 0.64%, at 15597.51pt. ChiNext up 0.07%, at 4019.93pt.

Bond Market: US treasuries closed.

Commodities: Brent September crude futures up 0.45%, at $72.12/barrel, weekly total drop 0.66%. By Friday's close, spot gold at $4176.94/oz, up over 1.3% on the day, up 2.2% weekly. LME aluminum down $1, at $3090/ton, weekly down 2.83%. LME tin up 3.27%, at $52,628/ton, weekly up 4.1%.

Headlines Details

Global Key News

China

State Council issues "15th Five-Year Plan for Beautiful China", sets comprehensive ecological improvement goal for 2030. The plan proposes that by 2030, ecological environment quality will have comprehensively improved, and major progress will be made in the buildout of Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyle will be established, carbon peak targets achieved on schedule, major pollutant emissions will continually decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity significantly increased, urban and rural living environment will improve, ecological system diversity, stability, and sustainability will be enhanced, nuclear and radiation safety will reach new levels, and national ecological security will be effectively protected.

Three departments adjust energy-saving vehicle, new energy vehicle car-ship tax policy. Recently, Ministry of Finance, Tax Administration, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice. From Jan 1, 2027, the car-ship tax reduction for energy-saving vehicles will be canceled, canceling pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in (including range-extending) hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicle car-ship tax exemption policy.

NDRC announces domestic oil prices cut from Saturday, biggest drop this year, first "triple fall" of the year. From 24:00 Jul 3, domestic gasoline and diesel (standard) prices will drop by 950 and 915 yuan per ton respectively. This is the 13th price adjustment this year. With the price drop, filling a 50-liter tank with 92 gasoline will cost 37.5 yuan less. Analysts think overall weak international oil prices were influenced by US-Iran MOU and increased throughput via Hormuz, resulting in lower averages vs previous cycles.

China June RatingDog Services PMI 54.1, new business export hits annual high. June RatingDog Services PMI is 54.1, slightly down from May but still near three-year high. New export business growth hit annual high, sales prices revived after two months, strongest increase in over a year; employment expanded for two months, fastest growth in nearly two years, service sector recovery momentum accelerating.

Direct confrontation with Anthropic? Media reports Alibaba to fully ban Claude Code internally. Alibaba reportedly will fully ban Claude Code internally, citing backdoor risks, effective July 10. From Anthropic's distillation attack charge to Alibaba suing the US Department of Defense, to the Claude Code backdoor incident, the conflict is becoming more complex.

DeepSeek peak pricing—what does it mean? Goldman Sachs: Domestic large model competition returning to rationality. China’s large model sector competition is shifting from price wars to efficiency-driven. DeepSeek will double API prices at peak periods from mid-July. Goldman Sachs thinks this reflects strong demand and tighter computing power, driving rational pricing. Focus shifts to cost control, efficiency and commercial capability. Lean, fast-iterating companies will have the advantage; the price war’s end is in sight.

Robotics sector surges! Unitree Technology Sci-Tech Innovation board IPO registration effective. On July 2, CSRC disclosed approval for Unitree’s IPO registration. A-share robotics sector rose sharply in the afternoon. Over 40 stocks hit trading limits, dozens up over 10%.

Memory giant J&W Dragon's first-half net profit exploded, expected increase of 62,204% to 74,394%. Q2 net profit estimated at 5.338-7.138 billion, Q1 net profit of 3.862 billion, Q2 up 38-84% sequentially.

Overseas

Iran holds funeral for late Supreme Leader, He Wei attended for China, Saudi delegation unexpectedly appeared, Iran re-proposes "joint management" of the Strait. Iranian media report Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister attended "unexpectedly". Iranian President and Speaker met He Wei, Iran seeks continued political diplomatic easing of tensions, handling Hormuz under international law. Iranian Speaker said the Strait should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, seeking Gulf states’ opinions. Israeli PM denies US media reports of plans to assassinate Iranian negotiators.

Trump expresses on AI regulation: guardrails needed, but "the fewer the better". Trump set the tone for AI regulation. This reflects internal government conflict—tightened then loosened export controls on Anthropic models worried Silicon Valley; meanwhile, OpenAI is reportedly negotiating to give up 5% equity to the government, Anthropic, Google, Meta may join. If government holding materializes, it will reshape IPOs and AI regulation.

Eurozone economy June "bottomed out": Composite PMI returns to 50, German data unexpectedly "saved the day". Eurozone June Composite PMI final at 50.0 (vs preliminary 49.5), ending two months of contraction. German Composite PMI rose to 49.5, services PMI revised up to 48.6, narrower contraction. Eurozone services sector cost pressures cooled at second-fastest rate historically, weakening rate hike expectations. However, new orders remain weak, demand insufficient, ECB internal disagreements widening, market expected to shift to wait-and-see.

Russian President's spokesperson: Putin declares Russian army "completely liberated" Luhansk. Russian forces also made major progress in Donetsk, completely occupying Konstantinovka.

Media survey: OPEC June output surges by 2.34 million barrels/day, oil market returns to "oversupply" trade. Strait of Hormuz throughput resumed, OPEC output in June increased by 2.34 million barrels/day to 18.75 million, mainly by Kuwait, Saudi and Iran, still below pre-war levels. Weak consumption plus increased supply led to oversupply in some markets. Brent crude traded near $72/barrel Friday, erasing war gains.

Samsung talks cooperation, SK Hynix expands production, Kioxia samples new NAND, Japan and South Korea stock markets respond to computing power surplus fears with V-shaped rebound. South Korea saw a "deep V" reversal, KOSPI plunged over 3% early then surged over 5% triggering programmatic trading circuit breakers, closing up 5.8%. Rebound driven by multiple AI supply chain positives—Anthropic talks custom chip with Samsung, Korean firms ramp up semiconductor investment, Samsung plans to hike DRAM prices, Kioxia launches new generation NAND chip. Despite improved sentiment, market caution on AI returns remains.

AI Token Expenditure Index falls nearly 20%, user marginal payment willingness may be cooling. Global AI key metric LLM Token Expenditure Index peaked in May then fell nearly 20%. The index is a composite of price and usage, as a proxy variable for "marginal payment willingness", its weakness triggers market divergence: optimists attribute it to >90% token price drop driving demand restructuring; pessimists warn of a 46% gap between AI investment and sales growth—higher than the Internet bubble—suggesting payment willingness may be near its limit.

Microsoft CEO Nadella: The moat in the AI era isn’t in models, but in a company's unique learning loop. Nadella warns: companies that rely only on consuming generic large models risk having their value fall to zero. True moat is embedding models into proprietary data and reinforcement learning environments, making custom "climbing machines". From quantum computing practical use by 2030, free trillion-parameter models on devices, to Scout self-driving agents—a tech revolution rewriting business rules is quietly underway.

Tesla VP: In five years, autonomous driving and humanoid robots will be "fully integrated into everyday life". Tesla VP of Engineering Lars Moravy says in five years, Robotaxi and Cybercab based on autonomous driving and humanoid robot Optimus will be fully integrated, forming a "real-world AI" framework. Cybercab production line has started; Optimus's first line is being installed, replicating automotive manufacturing methods.

Research Report Highlights

US stocks see largest weekly fund outflow in nearly four months, BofA Hartnett: "sell signal" still flashing. BofA said US stock funds saw weekly outflow of $17.2 billion, highest since March 2026. BofA bull-bear index at 9.5, "sell signal" triggered for six weeks straight. Chip stocks highly volatile, Philadelphia semiconductor index down 11% in two days. Funds speeding into fixed income, tech funds, Japanese stocks; gold and crypto continued bleeding.

SemiAnalysis refutes "compute power surplus": Meta’s compute expansion far exceeds expectations, capex next year will be "astonishing". Meta signed over 5GW data center capacity in first half, next year's capex will be "astonishing", SemiAnalysis believes fears of compute surplus are misconceptions. Meta holds four monetization trump cards—AI models, ad expansion, API services, high-premium short-term rentals—each GW of compute has high value exits, allowing Meta to flexibly attack or defend its compute investment.

OpenAI and Anthropic both want "self-made chips": beyond cost, there are other reasons AI large model arms race quietly rises—from algorithm contest to hardware control. Anthropic is talking custom chips with Samsung, following OpenAI’s hardware autonomy path. Developing own chips is not only about cutting NVIDIA costs but also deeply integrating model architectures and base silicon for cross-layer breakthroughs in inference efficiency, energy consumption, and unit economics.

Second half of the AI bull market: downstream commercialization may be more important than Capex. US AI sector faces lagging commercialization: Salesforce etc see RPOs keep falling, Amazon’s marginal ROI drops below breakeven, Microsoft share price has fallen below 888-day moving average. Zheshang Securities noted current optimism relies on aggressive capex by midstream cloud firms, but falling marginal returns poses risks. Priority in tracking: downstream commercialization data > cloud capex guidance > US bond yield fluctuations.

How much money can AI make, depends on how much it can take from the human salary pool. AI’s earning potential isn’t about software market size but about how much it can take from the human salary pool. Guojin Securities estimates $1.45 trillion in US payroll is exposed to AI disruption, but leading firm Anthropic’s yearly revenue is only $47 billion, mere 3.2% penetration. The space is huge, but the cost is: high-paying jobs are being repriced by AI.

JPMorgan warning: if Fed raises rates early, gold prices might drop below 4000 or test 3500-3600. JPMorgan’s report says gold pricing now relies on ETF inflows, which are sensitive to rates, correlation with real yield is strongly rebuilt. Since the hawkish Fed signal at February’s end, gold has fallen over 20%. The bank lowered Q3 and Q4 forecasts to $4300 and $4500/oz, warning if hot summer data strengthens rate hike expectations, gold drops below $4000 might lead to technically further down to $3500-3600.

World Cup

A 14g chip saved Portugal and Ronaldo. In the 2026 World Cup 1/16 finals, VAR used the Adidas Trionda football’s built-in 500Hz chip (connected ball tech), to detect subtle header contact peak by Croatia’s Matanovic, ruling the equalizer offside invalid, Portugal reversed to win 2-1.

Domestic Macro

CSRC solicits opinions on refinancing reforms, plans to introduce shelf offering, raise rapid small financing cap. CSRC proposes revising listing company refinancing rules, open for comments. Main changes: establish directional shelf offering system; optimize rapid small financing, cap raised to 3-10 billion yuan; unify market-priced offering; simplify major shareholder offering conditions, extend lock-up to 36 months; strengthen convertible bond regulation; clarify fundraising should go to main business.

Domestic Companies

DeepSeek's new tech transplanted to Apple chips, Mac local large model speeds up 60%. DeepSeek open-sourced DSpark for a week, engineer Abdur Rahim released first native Apple chip version mlx-dspark. On M4 Pro, speculative decoding and MLX framework reconstruction boosted Gemma-4 and Qwen3 generation speeds by 1.6x and 1.4x respectively.

Market misjudged? Report: TSMC CoPoS first-gen may not use glass substrate, never considered glass interposer. The report says first-gen CoPoS may not use glass substrate, differing fundamentally from current market rumors of "glass substrate as CoPoS core". TSMC never considered glass interposer.

Guotai Haitong "kicks off" financial stock half-year report preview: non-net profit up over 164%, record high! Wealth management, investment banking, institution & trading, investment management revenues all grew significantly year-on-year.

Overseas Macro

Goldman's hedge fund chief's "semiannual summary": such a situation only happened once before. S&P 500 returned about 10% first half, would be a historic second time in 68 years with four straight years of double-digit gains if it closes above 7530. AI infrastructure swept globally, memory stocks soared 250%, North Asian markets exploded; "Magnificent Seven" surprisingly flat, other 493 components up 16%. Goldman warns: AI valuations rely on increasingly optimistic assumptions, regulatory black swan is approaching.

ECB President Lagarde says she doesn't rule out early resignation, entering French politics, unusually attends EU finance minister meeting. Lagarde says if macro uncertainty fades, she may end her current term early to join French politics. ECB schedule shows Lagarde will attend Eurozone finance ministers July 9 and broader EU finance ministers July 10—rare, as these meetings were usually attended by ECB Vice President.

Germany announces "comprehensive economic reform plan", including "raising retirement age, relaxing layoff controls", PM: "I understand nostalgia, but we can't hide in the past". Germany rolls out 34-measure reform package—tax cuts, retirement age from 67 to 70, loosening layoff controls, reducing bureaucracy. PM Mertz says "we can't hide in the past". Industry responses mixed, some say not strong enough. The reform is also a political gamble amid Mertz’s falling support rates.

Leverage ETF assets soared 431% in a year, South Korean parliament launches regulatory overhaul discussion. Democratic Party special committee will meet July 6 for closed review of capital market regulatory proposals focusing on single-stock leverage ETF oversight. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ETF assets expanded rapidly after listings, blamed for increased volatility and harming retail investors. Financial Supervisory chief admits policy errors, party consensus formed to tighten oversight, framework may be reviewed from scratch.

South Korea's stock leverage runs out of control: $45 bn surged, SK Hynix single ETF eclipses US tech giants. Korea's leverage ETF assets hit $45bn historic high, up 800% in 2026, 2.9% of free float market cap, tripled since start of year. SK Hynix products ranked top globally. Retail inflow plus loosened oversight pushed KOSPI up over 60% year-to-date, left market highly sensitive to policy news—single-day drops over 7% affected global chip sector. Regulators warn, high leverage stresses market liquidity and volatility.

Overseas Companies

Behind Meta "compute overcapacity": Zuckerberg says AI progress slowed, AI chief says new model matches GPT-5.5. Meta's "selling compute" reason exposed? Zuckerberg admits AI agents’ progress in last four months lagged expectations, but AI chief Alexandr Wang says new "Watermelon" model caught up to OpenAI GPT-5.5, compute invested up one magnitude. Is Meta’s compute really overcapacity? Debate continues.

Upgrade cycle premise faces setback, UBS survey shows Apple AI features failed to spark replacement boom. UBS survey: only 24% consumers willing to upgrade early for Apple Intelligence, down from earlier; 31% say AI "has no effect". Apple's AI-driven upgrade cycle logic hasn't played out, market confidence pressured. Foldable iPhone supports mood in short term, launch expected September. UBS target price $296, thinks valuation upside is limited, focus will shift from AI narrative to hardware cycle and product rollout pace.

Microsoft invests $2.5bn, mobilizes 6000 experts, bets on "frontline deployment + continuous optimization" enterprise AI model. Microsoft establishes Microsoft Frontier Company, invests $2.5bn, assigns 6000 industry and engineering experts to client sites for end-to-end AI design, deployment and optimization services. Microsoft says new company will help enterprises achieve quantifiable AI outcomes, promises client data/IP won’t be used for model training.

80% of Claude Code prompts deleted, Anthropic used Fable 5 as test: AI industry "cost cutting" has just begun. Anthropic’s compute spending has reached 2.3x its payroll. With a senior engineer cost of $224k, compute spending per engineer is about $515k yearly. That is: models are more expensive than people.

Kioxia 10th-gen NAND sampled, CEO asserts "demand still strong, may expand capex", stock rebounds strongly! Kioxia launches 10th-gen BiCS FLASH chip, 60% denser, 4.8Gbps transfer rate, technically ahead of rivals by about a year. CEO uncharacteristically determined: "data center demand hasn’t weakened", may further expand capex. But facing Samsung, SK Hynix’s jointly held 70% market share and trillion-won expansion, whether Kioxia can beat rivals through differentiation is the main question.

Today's News Preview

US President Trump will deliver a themed speech on July 4 local time.

Risk Warning & Disclaimer ClauseThe market involves risk; investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute individual investment advice nor does it take into account the specific financial situation, goals or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether the opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions herein match their circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```