Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 12, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 12, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Major US inflation data was relatively moderate. The IEA announced a record release of crude oil reserves, but this failed to boost market sentiment. Trump sought to downplay the threat of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, again hinting the war will end soon, with markets still concerned about the Middle East situation.

S&P 500 edged down 0.08%, Dow fell 0.6%, Nasdaq rallied late and managed to close up 0.08%. Large tech stocks outperformed the broader market. Oracle soared more than 9% after earnings; cyclical stocks dragged down US equities.

US Treasury yields rose across the board. Traders expect the Fed will only cut rates once this year. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6.8 basis points, and has climbed more than 30 basis points since the Iran conflict.

The dollar rose 0.44%, nearing 99, recouping this week’s losses. AUD/USD was up 0.5%, hitting the highest level since June 2022.

Spot gold fell 0.3%, spot silver dropped over 3%. Oil prices saw a V-shaped move intraday. WTI crude oil futures surged 6.25% during Asia-Pacific hours, hitting a new daily high of $91.45/barrel.

During Asian hours, the ChiNext Index rose over 1%, the "lobster" sector fell, the photovoltaic industrial chain boomed, “Ning Wang” AH shares surged, and NIO jumped 13%.

News

China

Ministry of Defense: All parties should immediately cease military action in the Middle East; AI military applications must be human-led, to prevent loss of control.

Lao Pu Gold anticipates revenue will more than double in 2025, net profit expected to surpass 4.8 billion yuan.

Forbes Annual Billionaires List: Musk retains global top spot with $839 billion, Zhang Yiming tops China.

Overseas

US inflation continues to cool; February CPI up 2.4% YoY, core CPI up 2.5% YoY, smallest increase in nearly five years.

Trump said the Iran military action is "about to end," hinting at more potential strikes. Iran warns the US of a prolonged war. Iranian president proposed three requirements to end the conflict, demanding compensation from the US and Israel. IEA approved a record crude oil release, with 400 million barrels exceeding 2022’s level by over double. Over the past six days, Iran’s oil exports have risen above pre-war levels.

Reports: Trump administration to announce a trade investigation paving the way for new tariffs.

US DOJ investigation into Powell may twist, chief prosecutor replaced.

Nvidia’s intelligent agent push: open sourced model "Nemotron 3 Super" with 120 billion parameters, throughput up 5x. Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) rare post: AI is a pivotal force reshaping the world, as fundamental as electricity and the Internet.

“Macrohard” challenges Microsoft: Musk announces joint Tesla and xAI project to model software companies with AI.

OpenAI’s e-commerce ambitions hit reality: conversion rate under 1%, merchants indifferent, users barely purchase.

Meta expands its self-developed chip lineup: four new products by end-2027, strengthening computing power autonomy.

Market Closing

US & European Stock Markets: S&P 500 down 0.08%, closes at 6775.80. Dow down 0.61%, closes at 47417.27. Nasdaq up 0.08%, closes at 22716.135. Europe’s STOXX 600 down 0.59%, closes at 602.54.

A-shares: Shanghai closes at 4133.43, up 0.25%. Shenzhen closes at 14465.41, up 0.78%. ChiNext closes at 3349.53, up 1.31%.

Bonds: US 10-year Treasury yield up 5.25 bps, at 4.2082%. 2-year Treasury yield up 4.60 bps, at 3.6360%.

Commodities: Spot gold down 0.28%, at $5176.92/ounce. Spot silver down 2.87%, at $85.7923/ounce. WTI crude futures up 6.25% intraday, hit daily high of $91.45/barrel in Asia-Pacific.

News Details

Global Highlights

China

Ministry of Defense: All parties should immediately cease military action in the Middle East; AI military applications must be human-led, to prevent loss of control. On the afternoon of March 11, Deputy Director of the Defense Ministry News Bureau and Ministry Spokesperson, Colonel Jiang Bin, stated: The US-Iran conflict seriously violates international law and basic international relations norms. Continuing and escalating conflict leads to no winners, and military action should stop; military AI applications must be human-led to prevent loss of control; “Taiwan independence” activities are doomed to fail.

China's "lobster farming" is making waves—Goldman sales surprised: the speed and enthusiasm of Chinese people embracing AI is astonishing! OpenClaw open source AI agent software sparked a national “lobster farming” craze in China. Philip Sun, Goldman Sachs Asia sales, remarked on the amazing speed and zeal with which Chinese people embrace AI. At Tencent headquarters in Shenzhen, nearly a thousand people queue to install, from programmers to retired engineers and housewives—all involved. Posts garnered thousands of likes; foreign commenters shocked in reply: “This scale is crazy!”

Lao Pu Gold forecasts revenue will more than double in 2025, net profit to exceed 4.8 billion yuan. Lao Pu Gold’s earnings forecast: 2025 revenue to reach 27-28 billion yuan, up 217%-229% from 2024; net profit expected 4.8-4.9 billion yuan, up 226%-233%. Beyond gold price, the announcement says brand expansion, product iteration, and store growth drove the performance boost.

Forbes Annual Billionaires List: Musk retains global top spot with $839 billion, Zhang Yiming China’s richest. The 40th Forbes global billionaire list is out: 3428 entrants, a record, total wealth over $20.1 trillion. Musk tops with $839 billion, the first to pass $800 billion and may become the world’s first trillionaire. ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming is China’s richest at $69.3 billion, ranked 26th globally. The AI wave builds billionaires, with over one new billionaire per day on average globally.

Overseas

US inflation continues cooling; February CPI up 2.4% YoY, core CPI 2.5%, smallest increase in five years. US February core inflation slowed as expected, but Middle East conflict has driven up oil, gasoline, fertilizer costs. Citigroup expects short-term energy price rises to push March data up. The market expects the Fed to hold rates at next week’s meeting.

Trump says Iran military action “about to end,” hinting at more strikes; Iran warns US of protracted war. Trump said the US would slightly reduce strategic oil reserves to ease oil prices. Iran shifted to “chain strikes”; US Navy has “fled” Iran’s waters; confirmed attacks on two ships in Hormuz; reiterates US and allies lack passage rights. UK said three ships attacked in Hormuz and nearby Iranian waters Wednesday; Macron said G7 will organize oil release in days. Trump said he does not believe Iran is mining Hormuz, claiming most of Iran’s minelaying ships destroyed; US threatens to strike Iranian ports used for military. US military preliminary investigation concluded an “accidental strike” on Iranian school; White House says investigation ongoing.

Iranian president proposes three requirements to end war, seeking US/Israel compensation. Pezehziyan says the only way to end the current war is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, paying war reparations, and providing strong international guarantees against future aggression.

IEA approves record oil release, 400m barrels—more than double 2022’s level. US to release 172m barrels next week. Germany to release nearly 20m, UK to contribute 13.5m, French president Macron: releases arranged in coming days. Japan to act first next Monday. Japanese PM Kōichi Takai announced about 80m barrels of strategic oil to be released as soon as March 16 to offset supply risk and stabilize oil prices. US President Trump said US aims to maintain oil supply flow. “IEA’s release will depress oil prices dramatically; prices will fall—but we won’t leave Iran early.”

10th day of tracking Hormuz flows: only 3 tankers passed, 0 LNG ships for ten days. According to Morgan Stanley’s March 10 report, only 3 crude/product tankers left the Persian Gulf through Hormuz that day, zero LNG and LPG ships, versus normal ~35 vessels; no signs of situation easing. Saudi Aramco said east-west pipeline flow will reach max in “days,” partially offsetting lost channel export.

  • Hormuz blockade prompts Saudi, UAE to reroute via Red Sea, at least 25 tankers redirected! Saudi Aramco’s east-west pipeline about to hit 7m barrels daily max, UAE's Fujairah exports up 45% monthly, 25 tankers redirected to Yanbu port. But Iran remains tough, ships with transponders off continue passing, global supply gap now at 6%, market tension remains high.
  • Iran’s oil exports in past six days higher than pre-war! Despite Hormuz disruptions, Iran’s crude exports actually grew. Kpler data: average 2.1m barrels loaded daily in last six days, above pre-war Feb’s 2m. Meanwhile, Saudi and Gulf states forced to cut supply, showing geopolitical divergences. To bypass blockade, Iran restarted Jask terminal—but much less efficient than main Kharg hub. JPMorgan warns continued blockage will hit supply globally.

Report: Trump administration to launch trade probe, paving way for new tariffs. Probe to be based on Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, covering digital services tax and alleged currency manipulation.

US DOJ investigation into Powell may twist—chief prosecutor replaced. Senate Banking Committee’s top Republican says the DOJ’s “chief prosecutor” responsible for criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell has been replaced, possibly signalling movement in the high-impact investigation. Committee member, NC Senator Thom Tillis, said he will block Fed nominations until investigation ends.

Nvidia powers up agents! Nemotron 3 Super open model, 120B parameters, 5x throughput. Nemotron 3 Super activates only 12B parameters during inference, natively supports 1M token context window; performance from three architectural innovations: hybrid Mamba-Transformer backbone, latent MoE, multi-token prediction. Runs on Blackwell platform with NVFP4 precision, inference 4x faster than Hopper FP8 with no loss in accuracy. Perplexity is first partner using this model for agent tasks.

Jensen Huang rare post: AI is a world-transforming force, like electricity and internet—a fundamental infrastructure. Huang wrote, AI is not just models or apps, but foundational like electricity/internet. He describes AI as a “five-layer cake”: energy, chips, infrastructure, models, applications, and says global AI infrastructure is still in its early stage, current investment just hundreds of billions—trillions more needed.

“Macrohard” challenges Microsoft: Musk announces Tesla-xAI joint project simulating software companies with AI. Macrohard (nickname “Ju Ying”) aka Digital Optimus, aims for an AI agent system that operates computers directly and automates other tasks. System has two parts: xAI’s Grok model as “brain,” Tesla agents execute tasks. xAI filed a Macrohard trademark last year. Tesla took over an agent project from xAI reportedly stalled.

OpenAI e-commerce dreams hit reality: conversion rate below 1%, merchants indifferent, users seldom buy. Traffic doesn't convert to sales! Due to clicks below 1% and merchant indifference, OpenAI is scaling back ChatGPT's direct checkout, focusing instead on “ChatGPT apps” and advertising. With payments not closed-loop and platforms like Shopify retreating, its commercialization path remains slow.

Meta’s self-developed chips expand: four new products by end-2027, stronger computing autonomy. Meta accelerating self-developed chip plans: four AI chips by 2027, for content recommendation and generative AI inference. Latest MTIA 300 is in mass production, MTIA 400 soon, two more by 2027. Meanwhile, Meta still signs billion-dollar deals with Nvidia and AMD, creating dual supply chain: in-house + procurement, controlling cost and keeping supply flexible.

Selected Research Reports

“The Big Short” predicts US faces “major recession” next year. Wall Street’s “Big Short” David Rosenberg warns fiscal stimulus and AI capex—the two engines of US economy—are soon stalling, and the US may face a major recession. US GDP slowing, employment under pressure, fundamentals cracked. If stocks fall sharply, weakening wealth effect, pressuring consumption, it may trigger severe recession.

Including oil release, the US has “6 big moves” but Hormuz blockade limits all. US-Iran conflict drives oil prices up, IEA planning record reserve release, G7 rushes talks. JPMorgan bluntly: reserves, export limits, fuel tax waivers—six tools are “a drop in the bucket.” Hormuz daily potential supply loss is 12m barrels—far beyond any policy can cover. The real inflection point: when US Navy declares Hormuz safe to passage.

Hormuz alternative routes: two lifeline pipelines keep the global oil market alive amid Middle Eastern chaos! Saudi east-west pipeline and UAE Habshan-Fujairah pipeline total ~8.8m barrels/day (pre-Hormuz traffic ~20m), the only two that bypass Hormuz. Analysts warn to safeguard pipelines and ports from potential attacks to avoid secondary oil price shocks.

Domestic Macro

MIIT NVDB: “Six dos and don’ts” for avoiding OpenClaw ("lobster") agent security risks. MIIT cybersecurity threat and vulnerability sharing platform issued security advice for “lobster” apps: use official versions, control exposure, enforce minimum permissions, cautious with skills market, prevent attacks, establish lasting defenses; prohibit third-party images, exposed instances, over-permissioned deployments, high-risk skill packs, visiting unknown sites, disabling log audits.

Domestic Companies/Industries

China Association of Automotive Manufacturers: February NEV production/sales down 21.8% and 14.2% YoY. Due to the shifted Spring Festival holiday and weak consumption intent, February’s passenger cars and NEVs fell YoY. NEV production/sales reached 694k/796k, down 21.8%/14.2%; NEVs accounted for 42.4% of new car sales.

Overseas Macro

US Congressional Budget Office: 2026 fiscal year budget deficit at $1.9 trillion. CBO forecasts by 2036, US federal budget deficit to reach $3.1 trillion, 6.7% of GDP, above 50-year average of 3.8%. Growth mainly due to rising net interest costs.

Despite Middle East turmoil, US corporate CEOs' confidence hits a one-year high. US large company chief execs’ confidence rose in Q1. Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index up 9 to 89, a year+ high. Over 50 means expected growth in capex, sales, hiring in next 6 months. Hiring plans improved, but about 1/3 plan layoffs in coming months.

ECB officials: If Middle East conflict drives inflation up, ECB may hike rates early! Concerned that rising energy prices could trigger broad inflation, with Slovakia and Germany central bank heads releasing hawkish signals. Market bets on rate hikes surge, rate cuts discussion returns. Internal views diverge, but post-2022 lessons, ECB wary of wage-cost spirals, ready for decisive action to keep prices stable.

US media: After US granted India temporary waiver to buy Russian oil, Indian refiners bought 30m barrels. Bloomberg sources: since US last week allowed India to buy Russian oil, state and Reliance refiners “snapped up all unsold Russian crude on spot markets.” Oil shipped but not yet delivered, most now in Asian waters.

Overseas Companies

Oracle earnings call: signed $29b deal, AI infra “does not consume its own cash flow,” “we are the disruptors of SaaS”. Oracle’s outperforming Q3 eased fears of debt and SaaS decline; AI infra revenue up 243%, with $29b in new contracts using customer prepay/self-supplied hardware, decoupling capex from cash flow, addressing debt concerns. Execs push back on notion AI will kill traditional software, claim Oracle is the disruptor.

Oracle rolls out “bring your own chip” to cloud, shifting AI infra costs to customers. To deal with big capex, Oracle asks some cloud clients to buy expensive AI chips themselves or bring their own chips to its datacenters, giving ability to fulfill orders without worsening cash flow. Oracle shares surged 10% pre-market, showing reappraisal of management’s response.

Nvidia invests $2b in AI cloud company Nebius, building AI datacenters. Nvidia’s AI infra strategy continues: $2b in Dutch cloud provider Nebius, joint AI data centers, aiming for over 5GW computing power by 2030. Latest case of Nvidia “recycle investment” strategy, pumping CoreWeave, OpenAI, etc. to secure its AI-supply-chain core vs Google/Amazon chip efforts. Nebius stock jumped 15% early trade.

Meta acquires “Lobster Community” Moltbook; Zuckerberg aims to forge the Agent route. Moltbook joins Meta’s superintelligence lab; co-founders enter team. Meta values Moltbook's “persistent directory” for permanent online registration/calling of AI Agents; core function depends on the OpenClaw open source project.

Report: Apple’s foldable iPhone to launch later this year, with iPad-like interface when unfolded. Media cites sources: Apple’s long-prepped foldable phone will have an internally folding display about the size of an iPad mini, plus an external screen similar to small iPhone. Internal screen wider aspect ratio than most current foldables. May be a key selling point.

Wall Street giant moves first: JPMorgan cuts private credit collateral values, tightens lending leverage. JPMorgan proactively slashed collateral values for software firm loans, first major bank cutting private credit leverage. AI’s disruption of software is now spreading to private credit. Others haven’t followed yet, but a revaluation storm is looming.

Industry/Concept

1. Computing power | On March 11, National Supercomputing Internet announced all OpenClaw platform users will get 10 million Tokens free for two weeks. Same day, supercomputing internet announced OpenClaw Token renewal price: 0.1 yuan/1 million Tokens, a big drop from the market average.

Review: Industry believes the Token giveaway lowers user thresholds, accelerating Claw ecosystem penetration and retention, building user base for commercial monetization. The renewal price per million tokens is dozens to hundreds of times lower than top domestic AI large model API market prices—highly competitive. Especially for agent scenarios and high-frequency, multi-step reasoning, this pricing further lowers renewal barriers and boosts usage. Low-price Token policy likely to increase consumption and computing demand (boosting AI server, chip, cloud computing and supply chain demand), benefiting hardware/infrastructure suppliers.

2. Grid equipment | According to Sina Finance, Google, Tesla, and five other electric power/data center firms jointly founded “Grid Utilize Alliance” to improve US grid usage, lower costs, expand load capacity. The alliance argued US grid runs at low load long-term; optimizing efficiency could save consumers over $100b in electricity in ten years.

Review: Analysis says US AI and frontier data centers’ power demand keeps rising, some regions high concentration, price rising sharply. US wholesale power price in some states up 50%+ from 2020-25; in Virginia and similar, doubled. S&P Global estimates US data center power demand will hit 75.8GW by 2026, rise to 134.4GW by 2030. The alliance stresses reworking grid structure/improving usage is quickest, most realistic measure for new load demand like AI/manufacturing. New smart storage, virtual power plant, distributed energy, grid-side flexible resources will drive the next US energy structure upgrade. For domestic firms, those with channel resources, leading tech, active capacity layout stand to benefit—especially those with high overseas margins.

3. Carbon fiber | According to Global Times, March 11, China’s self-developed T1200 ultra-high strength carbon fiber made its global debut. The breakthrough fills gaps worldwide and marks a major step in ultra-high strength carbon fiber production. This T1200 carbon fiber was developed by China National Building Material Group and is not just a lab sample—it has mass-production capacity in the hundreds of tons.

Review: Zhongtai Securities says global aerospace-grade carbon fiber supply is highly concentrated in Japan and US; Chinese leaders are breaking through. With technical and certification barriers, local leaders may enjoy long-term premium advantage.

4. AI Glasses | March 11, TCL subsidiary RayNeo partnered with Amap to launch its first smart glasses local-life app "RayNeo Smart Life". The hit "Street Sweep Ranking" also lands on AR glasses via this partnership. RayNeo says this combines their AR spatial computing tech with Amap’s near-billion-user local living capability, turning AR glasses from “geek toy” to “all-around life partner.”

Review: Huaxi Securities says with richer product forms, cost reductions, optical display upgrades, and improved end-side AI computing, AI glasses may become the next billion-unit consumer electronics terminal, with huge future market potential.

5. Space computing power | According to Eastday, at “AWE2026 Chip Industry Summit,” Suimi Ecosystem chip company Xinjichuan announced the “Tianqiong” chip series now in mass production, to be used in Suimi robot products. Xinjichuan also revealed new progress: the "Yaotai" space computing box will soon launch, starting construction of the near-Earth orbit super computing center.

Review: From emergence of large models to budding embodied intelligence, each leap in intelligence consumes exponential computing power. Global AI computing is severely lacking, making computing power the most scarce and valuable strategic resource—a core focus of competition between nations and companies. Space computing is a new racetrack for global tech/business; value lies in overcoming ground-based power’s limits on energy supply and global coverage, shifting from traditional "sky sense, ground compute" to "sky compute, sky think," and even "ground compute, sky compute" paradigms.

Today's News Preview

US initial jobless claims last week.

US January new housing starts and building permits.

Japanese PM Kōichi Takai to meet Middle East envoys.

Fed releases quarterly financial accounts report.

Adobe, Futu, Li Auto to release earnings.

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks; investing should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it account for individual users’ special investment goals, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider if any views, opinions, or conclusions are suitable for their particular situation. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```