Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 18, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 18, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

The Middle East situation remains stalemated, markets await the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The three major US stock indices closed with slight gains. The energy sector led the rise, and airline stocks surged sharply, boosted by expectations of passengers rushing to book tickets. Lululemon fell over 1% after earnings release. Eli Lilly dropped 6.5% intraday, HSBC turned bearish.

Long-term US Treasury prices outperformed short-term, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.20%. Funds showed a certain preference for moving to quality assets for hedging.

The dollar fell for the second day, dropping over 0.3% intraday. Bitcoin rose 0.38%, briefly fell below $74,000. Ethereum dipped 0.8%.

Spot gold held near $5,000, silver futures fell 1.6%. Iran reportedly increased attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities, crude oil rebounded, Brent hit a more than three-year high at $103.42 per barrel.

In Asia, A-shares and H-shares fell in the afternoon, ChiNext fell over 2%, major finance bucked the trend and strengthened, computer hardware saw broad adjustment, “Token’s first listed stock” Xunce surged over 30%.

Major News

China

SASAC: Focus on "Two Importance" and "Two New", proactively planning and implementing major projects and landmark engineering.

Overseas

Trump said action against Iran needs no NATO nor Japan, South Korea, Australia support, and consideration should be given to US withdrawal from NATO. US media: USS Ford aircraft carrier fire took over 30 hours to extinguish, over 600 bunks destroyed, fire began with a dryer in the laundry room. Iran’s supreme leader rejected US reconciliation proposal, insists on defeating the US-Israel alliance and seeking compensation. Iran declares its operations have entered “acceleration phase”; president confirmed Larijani’s death, reportedly increasing attacks on Middle East energy facilities.

The “new Fed news agency”: Focus shifts from "when to cut rates" to "whether to cut," watching three signal windows.

EU-US trade friction expected to ease, EU advancing final approval of trade agreement with US.

Bank of America fund manager survey: Stock market frenzy has faded, the “biggest risk” in the market has changed!

Jensen Huang said chip revenue forecast has “strong visibility”, target will continue to expand, low-latency inference will be the next engine of the AI economy, and tight balance of power chip supply and demand will persist.

OpenAI releases GPT-5.4 mini and nano, approaching flagship model performance at lower cost. OpenAI emergency pivot: eliminates “side quests”, all-in programming and enterprise markets.

Samsung union planning largest strike in history, threatens chip supply.

Microsoft drastic AI department restructuring, simplifying Copilot product line, in response to customer complaints.

Amazon CEO: AI may drive AWS sales to $600 billion in 2036, doubling previous expectations.

Market Closing Prices

US and European stock markets: S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6716.09 points. Dow Jones up 0.10%, at 46993.26. NASDAQ up 0.47%, at 22479.528. European STOXX 600 up 0.64%, at 602.31.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4049.91, down 0.85%. Shenzhen Component at 14039.73, down 1.87%. ChiNext at 3280.06, down 2.29%.

Bonds: US 10-year Treasury yield down 1.75 basis points at 4.2004%. 2-year Treasury yield flat at 3.6715%.

Commodities: WTI April crude futures up 2.90% at $96.21/barrel. Brent May futures up 3.20% at $103.42/barrel. Spot gold down 0.02% at $5005.01/oz. Spot silver down 1.83% at $79.3090/oz.

 

Details of Big News

Global Highlights

China

SASAC: Focus on "Two Importance" and "Two New", advance planning and implementation of major projects and landmark engineering. The meeting emphasized focusing on "Two Importance" and "Two New", proactively planning and implementing major projects and landmark engineering, expanding effective investment; promoting central enterprises to cultivate new productive forces and strengthen tackling core technologies; deepening SOE reform, optimizing state capital layout. Strengthen original innovation, core technology breakthroughs, deeply implement central enterprise "AI+" action, accelerate the creation of new pillar industries.

Overseas

Trump: action against Iran needs no NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia; Iran declares operations enter "acceleration phase", president confirms Larijani's death. Trump said most NATO allies do not want to get involved, US "doesn't need anyone's help"; two senior Iranian officials were "removed", including a "top-level" figure. US National Counterterrorism Center director Kent resigned, blamed Israel for causing war between US and Iran. US Navy's USS Ford carrier's deployment may be extended to May. Israeli army threatens to "hunt" Iran's new supreme leader. Iran reportedly appointed multiple replacements for key state positions; says Larijani’s son and deputy also killed in airstrike; Tuesday marked the 59th round of operations, attacking US bases in Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, and Iraq; Bushehr nuclear area attacked. Macron said France will not participate in opening Hormuz Strait under current circumstances; Canada, Greece, Netherlands say no military action; Iran's parliament speaker says the strait won’t return to prewar state.

Trump: US should consider withdrawal from NATO, disappointed with NATO. Trump said he could decide to exit NATO without Congress, no specific plan yet but displeased with status quo; safe passage through Hormuz Strait "won't take long"; US not ready to end Iran conflict but "will leave soon." Earlier he criticized NATO allies for not assisting the US, saying that the US no longer needs nor desires NATO help.

US media: USS Ford aircraft carrier fire lasted over 30 hours, 600+ bunks burned, fire began with laundry dryer. US Navy confirmed a fire broke out in USS Ford's main laundry on March 12, causing 2 injuries. The blaze was only extinguished after 30+ hours, over 600 bunks destroyed, many sailors forced to sleep on floors or were reassigned bunks.

Iran’s supreme leader rejects US peace proposal, insists on defeating US-Israel and seeking compensation. Mujtaba stated in foreign affairs meeting, "now isn’t the time for peace," and that US and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation.

Iran reportedly increases attacks on Middle East energy facilities, oil rebounds, Brent closes at new three-year high. Saudi Defense Ministry reported Iran launched nearly 100 drones at Saudi Arabia on Monday, marking the largest single-day attack since the conflict began. UAE Defense Ministry detected 55 launches from Iran Tuesday, with 10 ballistic missiles and 45 drones, largest drone strike in over a week. US oil rose over 5% Tuesday, Brent up over 3%, closing above $100 for four consecutive days.

“New Fed News Agency”: From "when to cut rates" to "whether to cut", focus on three signal windows. "New Fed News Agency" Nick Timiraos pointed out the escalation in Middle East strengthens consensus for Fed to hold rates, focus on three signal windows: policy statement wording, dot plot forecasts, Powell's news conference. These will determine if this round of easing ends here, any hawkish signals will directly impact rate expectations and risk asset pricing.

EU-US trade friction expected to ease, EU advancing final approval of trade deal. EU restarted approval of trade deal with US, meaning a long-stalled agreement faces final approval. European Parliament's trade committee will vote Thursday, then submit to full Parliament later this month or April. If approved, final text goes to member states for approval. This marks a potential easing of a rising friction point in transatlantic relations.

Bank of America fund manager survey: Stock market frenzy fades, market's biggest "bomb" changes! According to BofA global fund manager survey, overall sentiment plunged to a six-month low this month. Inflation worries intensified, geopolitical conflict replaces AI bubble as top risk. Private credit default risks at record highs, cash holdings up. Commodity overweight at a two-year high, market shifting from "boom" to "stagflation" defense mode.

Nvidia bets big on AI "trillion era": Jensen Huang says chip revenue projection has "strong visibility," target will keep expanding. Jensen Huang says the $1 trillion forecast covers only Blackwell and Rubin product lines, excludes upcoming products as well as new regions and markets.

Jensen Huang GTC interview: Low latency inference will drive next AI economic boom, power chip supply-demand tightness will persist. Upgrades in AI inference means models shifting from "generating information" to "executing tasks," for the first time creating real economic value, low latency inference will be a new paid business engine. On supply side, power, chips and data center construction are all short on redundancy, tight balance may be a long-term industry norm.

Wall Street reviews GTC: In Nvidia’s definition, computing power equals revenue, Token is the new commodity. Nvidia GTC sent core signal: business logic of AI computing power is fundamentally restructuring - Token is now the new commodity, computing power equals revenue. BofA believes Blackwell systems reduce per Token costs up to 35 times compared to Hopper, Rubin series to decrease it another 2 to 35 times, this sustained compression curve drives expansion of demand.

Goldman quick review on Jensen Huang GTC speech: Met two key investor expectations. Nvidia revealed over $1 trillion in datacenter revenue orders, far exceeding expectations, helping dispel worries about AI capex "peak." Secondly, Nvidia introduced Groq's LPX rack system, further cementing inference market strategic commitment.

Nvidia GTC: AI industry’s "Spring Festival Gala," full of anticipation, but disappointing? GTC mainly impacts industry chain companies, not much new info about Nvidia itself, like capex continuity and Nvidia’s market share. Guidance was bland, Jensen Huang predicts "by 2027 datacenter cumulative income over $1 trillion," which may fall short of market expectations.

Ming-Chi Kuo: Joining Nvidia’s ecosystem, LPU output to surge tenfold, major impact on PCB supply chain. At Nvidia GTC, Groq 3 LPU was officially incorporated into Rubin platform, Ming-Chi Kuo says 2026-2027 LPU shipments to reach 4-5 million units, tenfold increase vs historical yearly, rack density from 64 to 256 units, PCB supply chain enters new cycle - WUS printed circuits likely biggest winner.

OpenAI releases GPT-5.4 mini and nano, lower cost approaching flagship performance. OpenAI says faster, more powerful small models mean developers don’t need a single model for all tasks, can build systems with large models for decisions and small models for rapid mass execution. "GPT-5.4 mini is our most powerful small model for such workflow to date."

OpenAI emergency pivot: eliminates "side quests", concentrates all on programming and enterprise market. OpenAI is planning a major strategic shift, focusing core resources on programming tools and enterprise market. Behind this change is Anthropic’s strong rise in enterprise AI and pending IPO pressure.

Samsung union planning largest strike in history, threatens chip supply! Samsung’s largest union SELU to launch 18-day strike starting May 21, vote ends March 19. Action may affect half of Pyeongtaek facility’s chip capacity, adding strain to global supply chain. Analysts warn Samsung lacks labor experience and faces external poaching, which may hit profitability.

Microsoft drastic restructuring of AI department, simplifies Copilot product line, responds to customer complaints. Microsoft merged Copilot AI assistant development teams, appointed Jacob Andreou as new head. Change stems from user complaints about confusing Copilot versions, execs hope this helps Microsoft stand out in a fiercely competitive market.

Amazon CEO: AI may drive AWS sales to $600 billion in 2036, doubling previous projections. Media reports Amazon CEO Andy Jassy predicted at company meeting that AI will help AWS reach $600 billion annual revenue, twice his earlier estimate. On huge capital spending, Jassy explained AI offers rare opportunity for massive business, demand is clear and strong, not investing $200 billion just hoping AI will be big.

Selected Research Reports

Dalio’s essay: Ultimate showdown! Everything hinges on who controls the Strait of Hormuz. Bridgewater’s Dalio believes Middle East’s "ultimate showdown" depends on who controls Strait of Hormuz, which concerns global energy lifeline and US hegemony: losing it would mean repeating decline of historical empires and threatening dollar foundation; resolving it would restore global confidence and test world order.

Cathie Wood’s warning: Five major innovation platforms are quietly resonating, a wealth reconstruction comparable to the railroad era has begun. Cathie Wood, in "Big Ideas 2026" annual report, judged that AI, multi-omics, public blockchain, robotics, reusable rocket five innovation platforms are together reaching a critical tipping point, driving what she calls a "big acceleration" in economic paradigm shifts. In the 1870s, railway stocks once accounted for 75% of US stock market value. Now we stand at another crossroads of wealth reconstruction—missing innovation could mean missing this decade’s growth.

Goldman hedge fund chief: Market environment "almost unprecedented", stocks underestimate tail risk. Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello warns that US stock downside risks are seriously underestimated, as geopolitical conflict continues and volatility index is unusually calm, this divergence deserves vigilance. He points out oil and gas supply disruptions are urgent threats. Although Goldman maintains a S&P 7600 target for year-end, he recommends defensive posture, simplifying portfolios and slightly raising cash. Macro strategist Bobby Molavi describes current market as "almost unprecedented", all asset managers face challenges.

Morgan Stanley: China AI cloud market five-year CAGR to reach 72%, Alibaba may be biggest winner. Morgan Stanley’s heavy report: China AI cloud market to soar at 72% CAGR, surpass 218 billion yuan by 2029; Alibaba listed as "top pick" for its full-stack layout, predicts 45% cloud revenue growth—the market’s highest; more crucially, a twenty-year-unseen cloud service price increase cycle is coming, turning point in margins may be most undervalued variable.

  • Alibaba adds “Token business group”, is Qianwen’s revaluation moment here? Alibaba announced creation of Token business group, “Wukong division” debuted. Morgan Stanley says business group’s Token revenue structure is similar to Minimax and Zhipu, meaning Alibaba may have room for further value re-rating, making it China’s AI winner top pick. Their high-end SOTP valuation for Alibaba is $345 per share, with Qianwen division separately valued at $19/share.

Domestic Macro

Fifteenth Five-Year Plan explained: 109 major projects will support China’s future. According to Yuquantan Tian, Fifteenth Five-Year Plan’s employment public service improvement specifically proposes establishing mechanisms to survey and respond to AI’s impact on jobs. Previously, focus was on human “productivity”—transforming people into labor and output. The new plan aims for capital, tech, and resources to better serve people’s development.

Domestic Companies

Ant Group acquisition approved, Yao Cai Securities surged 80%. Ant Group’s acquisition of Hong Kong veteran broker Yao Cai Securities was approved, expected to close March 30, gaining about 50.55% stake. News sent Yao Cai shares up over 80% after resuming trading. Founded in 1995, Yao Cai is notorious for its low commissions. The deal marks Ant’s first HK Securities & Futures license, complements its finance map, and is seen as emblematic of accelerated international push and fintech returning to regulatory licensing.

Tencent QClaw to launch soon, WeChat entrance upgrade. Tencent’s QClaw will begin public beta testing soon, new version out March 18, WeChat access will be fully upgraded, enhancing connectivity and lowering entry barriers. QClaw is Tencent’s local AI assistant built on OpenClaw open-source ecosystem, industry’s first to connect directly to WeChat, focusing on zero threshold/no deployment, was always in low-profile beta.

Fuyao Glass’s 2025 net profit up 24% to new record, smart car wave brings growth.

Overseas Macro

Goldman: Fuel oil in parts of Asia surges, refined products outpace crude. Middle East supply crisis drove Brent crude up over 40% to break $100, but diesel, jet fuel etc. soared much more, some Asian fuel markets have doubled. Around 60% of crude exported from Persian Gulf is medium-to-heavy type, main feedstock for diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil; outside Middle East, alternative capacity is very limited.

Reserve Bank of Australia raises rates second time in a row to 4.1%, Middle East conflict boosts inflation risk. RBA hiked rates by 25 bps to 4.1%, vote 5-4. RBA warned Middle East conflict lifts oil prices and inflation expectations, inflation may stay above target for some time. Market accordingly raised bets for May hike to 4.35%. After message, AUD fell rapidly, 3-year Australian government bond yield dropped 9 bps.

Congo export controls already caused 80,000-ton supply gap, global “cobalt shortage” may last until 2030, cobalt prices soar 160%! Commodity agencies point out: global refined cobalt output down 20% in 2025, first drop in five years, creating over 82,000-ton supply gap. Darton expects while gap narrows this year, shortages will persist annually to 2030.

Overseas Companies

Lisa Su and her "de-Nvidia" war. Lisa Su led AMD more than ten years, taking market cap from under $3 billion up hundred times. Facing Nvidia monopoly in AI chips, she deepened connections with OpenAI, Meta, etc. via “equity-for-orders”, bet early on AI inference track, and achieved MI series performance leap. She personally went to Korea to lock in HBM production, built complete layout from investment ecosystem to supply chain, quietly advancing "de-Nvidia" in AI datacenter market.

SK Group chairman says memory chip shortage to "last till 2030," Hynix considering US listing. SK Group chairman Chey Tae-won warned global wafer shortage will continue till 2030, gap may exceed 20%. HBM uses huge wafer supply, new capacity needs 4-5 years to release. SK Hynix, Nvidia’s main HBM supplier, is evaluating ADR issuance in US, and planning new scheme for stable DRAM prices, moves affecting the whole AI industry chain nerve.

Meta further shrinks metaverse strategy, Quest headset cannot access Horizon Worlds. Meta says Quest users can no longer access Horizon Worlds, the virtual space for gathering and gaming as cartoon avatars. Marks further shrinking of Zuckerberg’s core "metaverse" vision.

Morgan Stanley expects US private credit default rate to reach 8%, industry giants admit: All valuations are wrong! Morgan Stanley warns private credit software sector’s leverage ratio highest, coverage lowest, default rate may near post-pandemic peak. Apollo co-president Zito says 2018-2022 software company acquisitions were generally overvalued, recession probability now over 50%, and criticizes private equity valuation lack of transparency.

Top hedge funds: Wall Street underestimates “private credit” problems, “past decade’s acquisitions will soon fail”. Top credit hedge fund Davidson Kempner warns private capital crisis is imminent, not distant. High leverage, weak cash flow, loose debt covenants triple overlap, US stressed debt at $768 billion. The vulture fund that profited $3 billion from Lehman bankruptcy has entered the market—"We’re still in the first inning."

Industry/Concepts

1.Digital China | Huawei China Partner Conference countdown focuses on potential of digital economy. March 19-20, Huawei will host "Huawei China Partner Conference 2026" in Shenzhen, aiming for comprehensive integration of strategy, capability, value via "Partner+Huawei", co-advancing and delivering high quality digital upgrades for clients across industries. As the digital era arrives, directives like "AI+ action, new productive forces & industrial upgrade, tech self-reliance" bring huge opportunities, AI agents are evolving as core drivers of industry change, sector intelligence is now key engine for clients and partners moving towards intelligent world.

Comment: Galaxy Securities believes building Digital China is a key engine for advancing Chinese modernization, Digital China is China’s new-era development direction and strong support for new national competitiveness. In the next five years, focus shifts to efficient supply of "computing power-algorithm-data" trio; "AI+ action" to connect real and digital economies, drive Digital China from engineering construction to productivity reconstruction. Recommend focusing on high-performance computing power, cost reduction/efficiency scaling for large models, smart terminals and scale industry application of AI agents.

2. Energy Storage | Narada Power recently signed Australia Northern Territory 117MWh storage project. Once implemented, will provide local grid with peak shaving/frequency regulation, emergency power supply, load balancing and diversification, help enhance local renewable energy consumption capacity, fill gaps in grid supply stability.

Comment: CICC believes lithium carbonate cost increase has passed through to large and household storage to some extent, overseas markets with energy shortage remain resilient, expect integrators to achieve volume and price growth.