Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 21, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

During US trading hours, reports say the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground troops to Iran, and the US is considering occupying or blockading Khark Island. The probability of a Fed rate hike in October has risen to 50%.

All three major US stock indices fell sharply, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline, the longest losing streak in a year. The Nasdaq fell 2% intraday. Super Micro Computer plummeted over 33%. After Friday’s close, Trump stated he was considering gradually reducing military operations against Iran, and the S&P 500 ETF, which closed down more than 1%, rose as much as 1% after hours.

Global bonds were battered. US 10-year Treasury yield surged 13.4bps, 5-year exceeded 4% for the first time since July, with the yield curve flattening sharply; UK 10-year government bond yield reached 5% for the first time since 2008, and German 10-year bond yield hit an 11-year high.

The dollar rose as much as 0.5%. The yen fell nearly 1%.

Bitcoin dipped 0.6%, closing the week down 1%, finding support near $70,000, and outperformed gold for the third straight week; Ethereum rose a cumulative 2% this week.

Gold’s rebound vanished quickly, reversed intraday by over 5% from the day’s high and fell below the crucial $4,500 support, plummeting over 10% this week to a seven-week low, marking its biggest weekly drop since March 1983. Gold has now fallen three straight weeks since the start of the Iran war. Silver plunged 6.7% intraday and lost over 15% for the week.

Brent crude rose over 4%, lingering near $110. WTI crude rose 3.6% on the day. Dubai crude futures soared 16.48% this week, cumulatively up 26.37%.

In Asian trading, the Shanghai Composite lost the 4,000-point mark. Solar and lithium battery sectors strengthened, while oil & gas and chemicals pulled back. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 2%, Alibaba dropped 6%, and Xiaomi fell over 8%.

Top News

China

China’s March LPR was unchanged for the tenth straight month: LPR over 5 years at 3.5%, 1-year LPR at 3%.

Unitree Technology's IPO accepted, with 2025 revenue skyrocketing 335.4% year-on-year, net profit up 204%.

Xpeng Motors achieved quarterly profitability for the first time! Q4 revenue up 38%; net profit of 380 million yuan, annual deliveries doubled. Q1 outlook remains cautious.

Overseas

The US may send thousands more troops to the Middle East. Pentagon reportedly has a detailed plan to send ground troops to Iran; reports say Trump considers occupying or blockading Iran’s Khark Island. Trump first said he did not want a ceasefire, then said he was considering gradually reducing military action against Iran. Iran threatens devastating strikes against “evil officials” of US and Israel. Iran’s supreme leader delivered a New Year address, stressing the importance of economic resilience. The Houthi militia might blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

The US has released 45.22 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The US allows the sale of detained Iranian oil at sea; Bassent: about 140 million barrels can be provided quickly.

Fed Governor Waller: Cautious about high oil prices, but if employment is weak, may advocate for rate cuts later this year. ECB officials hint at April rate hike: action is inevitable if data deteriorates.

Reports: Samsung in long-term memory chip supply talks with Google and Microsoft, with prepayments over $10 billion.

Japan’s SoftBank Group: US Ohio data center to be a $500 billion project.

Market Close

Europe/US Equities: S&P 500 fell 1.51% to 6506.48, down 1.90% for the week, off 6.77% since Jan 27 close. Dow dropped 0.96% to 45577.47, down 2.11% for the week, and 9.18% since Feb 10. Nasdaq fell 2.01% to 21647.611, down 2.07% for the week, 9.64% since Oct 29. Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed down 1.78% at 573.28.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 3957.05, down 1.24%. Shenzhen Component at 13866.20, down 0.25%. ChiNext closed at 3352.10, up 1.30%.

Bonds: US 10-year benchmark treasury yield up 13.03bps at 4.3796%, up 10.29bps for the week. 2-year US yield up 10.77bps to 3.9001%, up 18.33bps for the week.

Commodities: WTI April crude futures rose 2.90% to $98.32/barrel, up 1.53% for the week. Brent May crude futures up $3.54, or 3.26%, to $112.19/barrel, up 8.77% for the week. Spot gold fell 3.25% to $4,499.36/oz, down 10.37% for the week. Spot silver down 6.49% to $68.0995/oz, down 15.55% this week.

News Details

Global Highlights

China

China’s March LPR unchanged for tenth consecutive month: over-5-year LPR at 3.5%, 1-year LPR at 3%. Experts note that since June 2025, LPR quotes have remained the same due to strong exports, rapid development of high-tech manufacturing, and other new productive sectors. Macroeconomy has withstood external trade swings and domestic real estate adjustments. The consensus is the current period is one of policy observation, and there is no urgent need for domestic rate cuts.

Unitree Technology’s IPO accepted, 2025 revenue surges 335.4% YoY, net profit up 204%. Unitree’s STAR Market IPO aims to raise 4.2 billion yuan, focusing on embodied intelligence! 2025 revenue exceeded 1.7 billion, triple increase; net profit 288 million, up twofold. Nonrecurring net income hit 600 million (includes 349 million one-time equity payments). Its humanoid robot shipments are now the world’s largest, which is its top growth engine.

Xpeng Motors turned profitable for first time in a quarter! Q4 revenue up 38%, net profit 380 million yuan; annual deliveries doubled and cautious Q1 outlook. Xpeng’s Q4 2025 marked its first net profit, at 380 million RMB, with gross margin a record 21.3%. Annual deliveries doubled, revenue up 87.7% to 76.7 billion. Q1 guidance is cautious. With dual drivers of cost reduction and tech monetization, Xpeng is pushing for overseas AI auto sales and mass production of L4 smart driving cars.

Overseas

Trump said he’s considering gradually scaling down military action against Iran, US stock ETFs turned higher after hours. S&P 500 ETF SPY, down over 1%, rose as much as 1% after hours.

US may send thousands more troops to Mideast; Trump, after saying no ceasefire, is considering de-escalation; Iran threatens to devastate ‘evil US/Israel officials’. Pentagon sending three more ships, up to 2,500 Marines. Trump says US close to its objectives versus Iran; Israel will end its conflict when US does; wants dialogue with Iran but “no one to talk to”; criticizes NATO as ‘paper tiger’ for not joining anti-Iran fight; says high oil prices caused solely by Hormuz bottleneck, and user nations should pay for convoying. Iran says the strait is open to all except enemies and will exercise self-defense if the UK authorizes the US to use its bases; South Korea joins G7 in condemning Iran's de facto blockade; Switzerland suspends war material exports to US; German defense says US/EU missile stocks nearly depleted.

Will the US deploy ground troops to Iran? Pentagon reportedly has detailed plans. The plans involve the 82nd Airborne and Marine Expeditionary Units. Trump still weighing a deployment. White House says Pentagon’s job is contingency planning and this does not mean a decision; no plan “at this time” to send ground troops but could strike Khark Island at any moment.

US stock futures dive as Trump considers occupying or blockading Iran’s Khark Island. Plan could start with a month of strikes to weaken Iran's military, then occupy the island as negotiating leverage. US 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (2,200 troops) has departed Japan for the Middle East, ETA about one week.

War hits energy sector: Iraqi oil output down over 70%, force majeure for foreign firms, Iran says US oil relaxations are just psychological manipulations. Iraq applies force majeure to all foreign oil fields; Basra’s output drops from 3.3 million to 0.9 million b/d. Iran says US treasury comments are only to give buyers hope and manage market sentiment.

Iran’s supreme leader’s New Year address stresses economic resilience. Mujtaba said the enemy exploits Iran’s economic/management weak spots; key is securing livelihoods, improving infrastructure, creating wealth for all. He promises a comprehensive solution soon. Claims recent attacks in Turkey/Oman not by Iranian forces—false-flag attempts by enemies.

Houthis may blockade Bab-el-Mandeb! Iran’s new trump card; USS Ford said to redeploy, IRGC: US/Israel in "desperate and humiliating" position. Yemen’s Houthis may blockade Bab-el-Mandeb to support Iran, attacking only ships from countries attacking Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. After the Hormuz Strait was closed, ships shifted to the Red Sea. The IEA says 400 million barrels of strategic reserves are being released.

Desperate Bassent: US can release little more strategic oil stock! Bassent says US can release strategic reserve alone; after Trump's release of 172 million barrels, inventory is down to 244 million, below the legal 252 million minimum; further, structural requirements mean only 90 million barrels could be released before reaching a bare minimum.

IEA: Persian Gulf oil/gas supply recovery may take 6 months, world faces worst energy crisis in history. IEA director warns politicians/markets have underestimated the scale—about 20% of global oil/gas is stuck in the region now.

Fed’s Waller: Prudence warranted over high oil, but with soft job market could favor cuts later in year. Waller warns Hormuz closure means rising inflationary pressure, oil spikes could hit core inflation. This prudence doesn’t mean no change the rest of the year. Fed vice chair Bowman expects three cuts this year, fearing job market weakness.

ECB hints April hike: if data sours, can’t avoid acting. Several officials strike hawkish tone, markets price 50% chance of April ECB hike, 80% for June. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays now forecast 2–3 ECB hikes this year.

Global bond rout, Fed October hike odds rise to 50%, US Treasuries, UK gilts tumble. Middle East tensions stoke inflation fears, global bond selloff. Traders now price 50% chance of October hike, reversing earlier cut bets; US 10-year yield at 8-month high, UK 10-year at first time above 5% since 2008. European and global bond yields also under pressure as rate/inflation outlook reset.

Gold has worst weekly performance in over 40 years, third straight fall since Iran war began. Gold saw its biggest weekly loss since 1983, down over 10% this week, eighth straight session of declines—the longest since October 2023; COMEX gold futures also lost over 10%. After US ground troop moves to Iran were reported, US dollar and bond yields jumped, worsening gold’s fall.

Such heavy selling in gold, caution is needed. Huge prior inflows are being unwound by non-US investors; digestion may take 2–4 months, new opportunities may emerge in second half. Copper has buying support, but rising inventory is cooling sentiment; if US stocks fall again, copper support may also fade. Risk asset performance remains highly sensitive to geopolitics.
Is gold falling due to surging dollar funding demand? The main selling has come during Asian/European trading. Cross-currency and swap basis changes suggest soaring global demand for dollars. Amid tight liquidity, investors are forced to sell gold for cash.

Reports: Samsung, Google, Microsoft in chip supply talks, with $10bn+ prepayment. Samsung is talking with Microsoft on $10bn+ advance payments; any shortfall in quantity will come out of prepayments. If the deal happens, suppliers will get over three years of visibility.

Japan's SoftBank: Ohio, US data center will be a $500bn project. CEO Son said phase one will have 800MW and cost $30–40bn, completion expected early 2028. 21 companies want to join Ohio power/AI infrastructure plan.

Selected Research Reports

Five oil shocks reviewed, Goldman Sachs says oil could soon top 2008, stay above $100 long term. GS warns continued Hormuz disruption could push Brent oil past the $147.50 high from 2008. After five historic shocks, affected countries still lost 42% of output on average four years later, mainly due to infrastructure damage—suggesting oil may stay over $100 for a long time.

CICC: Oil shocks and the US dollar, relationship has reversed. Unlike past oil crises where the dollar slumped with oil spikes, now, as a net exporter, the US sees dollar strength alongside oil rallies. Capital is also flowing back to Asian EMs, and tight liquidity magnifies risk aversion. Unless conflict escalates further, US economic downside risk is manageable.

How to trade during war. The Iran war has shaken markets, but investors' worst enemy is financial institutions selling “war strategies”, or chasing high-flying stocks. Most popular assets have already priced in war. Decisions based on geopolitical forecasts are risky. Experts warn: the war is too unpredictable, don’t blindly chase, beware of marketing hype and hard-to-reverse, aggressive portfolio shifts.

Cloudflare CEO warns: 2027’s AI bot traffic to outpace humans, internet faces historic turning point. Prince notes AI’s “endless data hunger” is the main driver; an AI agent runs tasks on behalf of users, and can visit 1,000 times more sites than a real human.

Domestic Macro

Shanghai property market's “small spring”: buying power surges, both new and used home prices rise. New home prices up 4.2% YoY in February, leading nationwide. Analysts say “Shanghai Seven Rules” taking effect, Feb’s rebound is just a start—March will see the full impact. Volume leads price, sustained high sales could quickly lift prices off the bottom.

Domestic Companies

Wall Street on Alibaba earnings: short-term ‘profit reset’ for long-term AI boom. Alibaba’s earnings saw revenue rise without profit, which analysts say is a “critical profit reset” to make room for AI and instant retail investment. The big positive surprise was a data surge: Bailian API token usage up 6x in March vs December, Ping Tou Ge chip annualized revenue at 10bn RMB, 60% from external clients. Goldman Sachs expects Alibaba Cloud to show 40% growth in the March quarter.

Solar booms: Tesla plans to buy 20bn yuan in Chinese solar equipment, GW-level contracts. Reports say Tesla is negotiating with Chinese suppliers to buy $2.9bn (about 20bn yuan) of GW-level solar production gear for its 100GW US capacity target. Domestic solar firms confirmed this. As a result, A/H-share solar stocks soared—Junda, Jiejia, Sangeng Electric, etc. all hit limit up.

The 100 days of “memory price explosions”, budget phones dying out. Even as most expect memory prices to eventually fall in 2027–28, the relentless AI demand plus suppliers' lack of support for consumer markets means the industry may never return to the past—unless capital stops betting on AI.

Zijin Mining posts record 2025 revenue and profit, to pay RMB 3.8 per 10 shares dividend. Zijin will boost copper, gold, and lithium output, aiming for 130–140 tonnes of gold, 1.5–1.6 million tonnes copper, and 270–320k tonnes LCE by 2028.

Overseas Macro

Selloff storm! Net long funds biggest selling ever, retail flows down 43% since conflict began. Goldman: on March 20, pure long funds net sold stocks worth $9.6bn—the biggest on record since 2022. At the same time, JPM shows retail inflows down 15% week-on-week, crashing 43% since Iran war began, and the “buy the dip” strategy faces a crisis in confidence.

Energy crisis worsens: several nations switch to 4-day work weeks, flights suspended, chemical sector at standstill. JPM report notes Asia’s refined oil product exports have dropped 35% in ten days, jet fuel over 40%; Philippines, Sri Lanka forced to a four-day week, South Korea labels naphtha a “strategic material”, many petro giants declare force majeure. If Brent stays at $100, global oil supply shortfall could hit 1mbpd in April.

Risk warning and disclaimerMarkets are risky, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether the opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```