Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 23, 2026
Hua Jian Morning Voice
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Market Overview
During Friday’s US trading, reports said the Pentagon was preparing to deploy ground troops to Iran, and the US was considering occupying or blockading Khark Island. The probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 50%. All three major US stock indices fell across the board, marking the fourth consecutive week of declines and the longest losing streak in a year. The Nasdaq fell 2% during the day.
After US market closed on Friday, Trump said he was considering gradually reducing military action against Iran; S&P 500 ETF, which closed down more than 1%, at one point rose 1% after hours.
Global bond markets suffered carnage. On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged by 13.4 basis points, the 5-year broke above 4% for the first time since July, and the yield curve flattened sharply; UK 10-year yield touched 5% for the first time since 2008, German 10-year yields hit their highest since 2011.
The US dollar once rose 0.5%. The yen fell nearly 1%.
Bitcoin slipped 0.6%, ending the week down 1%, beating gold for the third consecutive week; Ethereum rose 2% for the week.
Gold’s rebound was fleeting, plunging in a V-shaped reversal on Friday, falling more than 5% from the intraday high and breaking the important $4,500 support level, down over 10% for the week, marking the largest weekly drop since March 1983, falling for three weeks since the start of the Iran war. Silver plunged 6.7% intraday, down over 15% for the week.
Brent crude rose over 4%, hovering around $110. WTI crude climbed 3.6% Friday. Dubai crude futures soared 16.48%, up 26% for the week.
Early Monday in Asia, S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%, Brent oil futures rose 1.6% to $114 per barrel. Cryptocurrencies fell over the weekend, with Bitcoin at the $68,000 level.
Key News
China
Li Qiang attended and gave a keynote speech at the opening of the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting.
Han Wenxiu: In the coming period, expanding consumption is both the top priority and the hardest challenge.
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China: Will continue moderate monetary easing, using various tools to keep liquidity ample.
250 billion yuan to support trade-in of consumer goods, Ministry of Finance will increase policies that directly benefit consumers.
Huawei released a new generation of compute chips, single card computing power is 2.87 times that of H20, China’s only product supporting FP4 inference.
Japanese media: Chinese car companies global sales surpassed Japan for the first time in over 20 years, ranking first.
Overseas
Trump’s tone shifted again, giving Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to destroy its power plants. Sources say US is planning to seize Iran’s “nuclear stockpile”. Israel Dimona was “directly hit” by Iranian missiles, there are sensitive nuclear facilities nearby.
US military buildup, Trump issues ultimatum, Iran says ground forces are at “peak combat readiness”, may retaliate against three types of facilities, shifting from defense to offense, has produced advanced new weapons, “cheap, more destructive, quickly mass produced.”
US media: Trump team started planning for “peace talks” with Iran. Iranian media report Iranian officials propose six conditions for ceasefire, including establishing new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz.
India after, Iran reportedly considering“temporarily” allowing Japanese ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Persian Gulf LNG last shipments are about to arrive, global natural gas supply is on the edge of a cliff.
Microsoft and other cloud giants begin signing “mandatory long-term storage purchase agreements”, “storage cycle” will be reshaped.
Musk officially announces construction of the largest chip factory ever: annual capacity target 50 times current global capacity, 80% for space missions.
Market Close Report
US and European Stock Markets: S&P 500 fell 1.51%, closing at 6506.48; down 1.90% for the week, 6.77% since January 27. Dow fell 0.96%, closing at 45577.47; down 2.11% for the week, 9.18% since February 10. Nasdaq fell 2.01%, closing at 21647.611; down 2.07% for the week, 9.64% since October 29. Europe’s STOXX 600 closed down 1.78% at 573.28.
A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 3957.05, down 1.24%. Shenzhen Component closed at 13866.20, down 0.25%. ChiNext closed at 3352.10, up 1.30%.
Bond Markets: US 10-year Treasuries yield up 13.03 basis points, at 4.3796%, up 10.29 bp for the week. US 2-year yield up 10.77 bp, at 3.9001%, up 18.33 bp for the week.
Commodities: WTI April crude futures up 2.90%, at $98.32/barrel, up 1.53% for the week. Brent May futures up $3.54 (3.26%), at $112.19/barrel, up 8.77% for the week. Spot gold down 3.25%, at $4499.36/oz, down 10.37% for the week. Spot silver down 6.49%, at $68.0995/oz, down 15.55% for the week.
Key News Details
Global Heavyweights
China
Li Qiang attended and gave a keynote speech at the opening of the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting. Li Qiang stated that China’s competitive advantage in related industries is not due to subsidies and protection, but from persistent and deepening reform and advancing innovation-driven development. Most crucially, it is Chinese people and enterprises’ hard work. We oppose disorderly and irrational vicious competition, but under market economy conditions, healthy competition can stimulate greater development momentum. China will continue to uphold fair competition in the market, and is willing to strengthen communication and cooperation with all parties to jointly promote the stability and security of global supply chains.
Han Wenxiu: In the coming period, expanding consumption is both the top priority and the hardest challenge. Han Wenxiu stated that boosting the coordinated and balanced development of the economy, especially increasing the contribution of consumption, fostering more demand-driven and consumption-led endogenous growth models, is crucial. China’s enormous market potential has yet to be fully unleashed; expanding consumption, especially in services, has huge potential, covering urban renewal, infrastructure upgrades, and new infrastructure construction with enormous investment opportunity.
Pan Gongsheng, China’s Central Bank Governor: Continue moderate monetary easing, using various tools to keep liquidity ample. Pan Gongsheng said appropriate monetary policy will be maintained, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio, policy rates, and open market operations.
250 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade-in; Ministry of Finance will increase direct-to-consumer benefits. At the 2026 Annual Meeting of the China Development Forum, Minister Lan Fuoan said China will use policies like deficits, special debt, and loan interest subsidies to build a strong domestic market. More effort will go to boosting consumption, with 250 billion in special treasury bonds for trade-in and 100 billion in funds to promote demand. Supporting long-term consumer capacity, more support for employment, improved social security, and greater income through taxes and transfer payments.
Huawei launched new compute chip, single card computing power is 2.87 times H20, only product in China supporting FP4 inference. Huawei debuted the Atlas 350 AI training and inference acceleration card with Ascend 950PR processor. According to Zhang Dixuan, president of Huawei Ascend computing business, the Atlas 350 offers 2.87 times the power of Nvidia H20 per card, China’s only product that supports FP4 low precision; HBM memory is 1.16 times H20, at 112GB, multimodal generative speed up 60%, memory access granularity down from 512 bytes to 128 bytes, small operator access efficiency improved 4 times.
Unitree Robotics IPO accepted, Meituan is second-largest shareholder, 2025 revenue soared 335.4%, net profit up 204%. Unitree Robotics pushing for STAR Market IPO to raise 4.2 billion yuan, focusing on embodied intelligence! 2025 revenue grew to 1.7 billion yuan, up 3 times, net profit 288 million, up 2 times; non-recurring net profit 600 million, up nearly 7 times (includes 349 million one-time equity payment expense). Its humanoid robot shipment topped global rankings.
Japanese media: Chinese car makers’ global sales surpassed Japan for the first time in over 20 years. Nikkei reported that Japanese automakers’ global sales in 2025 dipped to about 25 million, first time since 2000 it lost the top spot. Chinese car makers sold nearly 27 million, overtaking Japan to become #1 globally.
Overseas
Trump’s tone shifts again, gives Iran 48 hours to open Hormuz, threatens to destroy its plants, Iran responds: may retaliate against three facilities. On March 22, Iran’s Hatam al-Anbia central command warned: if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all energy, IT and desalination facilities of the US and its allies in the region will be targeted.
Sources say US is planning to seize Iran’s "nuclear stockpile". On March 20, sources said the US is drawing up plans to seize Iran’s nuclear assets.
US military aims to take Khark Island, experts model three possible ways. Amphibious assault, helicopter drop, paratrooper landing, or combinations thereof, but all are extremely risky. Even if the US takes Khark, they could be trapped; effectiveness in resolving Hormuz crisis is limited, and might require continued troop increases, complicating Mideast conflict.
After Iran nuclear facility was attacked, Israel’s Dimona was "directly hit" by Iranian missiles, with sensitive nuclear facilities nearby. Iran-Israel conflict escalates! Iran’s Natanz facility was attacked, IAEA intervened for inspection; Iranian missiles precisely hit Israel’s Dimona, next to Israel’s most sensitive nuclear facilities, 39 injured, massive explosions. Both sides’ nuclear facilities under fire, global nuclear safety alert triggered.
Iran announces: shifting from defense to offense! Produced advanced new weapons, “cheap, more destructive, quickly mass produced”. According to Iran’s military, most drones used at Ben Gurion Airport were “Arash-2” model, more advanced, destructive, with a range up to 2000km, small radar signal, hard to detect. Cheap and rapidly mass produced.
US military buildup, Trump issues ultimatum, Iran says ground forces at “peak readiness”. IRGC ground forces commander Mohammad Karami said the unit is at peak morale and combat readiness, ready to decisively counter any incursion. US Marines are shipping out from San Diego to the Middle East.
US media: Trump team starts planning peace talks with Iran. Axios reports Trump administration began initial talks for next-stage actions and possible diplomacy. Kushner and Steve Witkoff have joined preliminary discussions for potential diplomatic moves. Any deal must include reopening of Hormuz and handling of Iran’s enriched uranium, plus long-term agreements on Iran’s nuclear plan, missile projects and support for regional proxies.
- Iranian media say officials propose six conditions for ceasefire, including new legal framework for Hormuz. According to Mehr and others, an anonymous Iranian official told Lebanon’s “The Square” TV that Iran’s six ceasefire conditions involve (1) ensuring war does not recur; (2) closing US military bases in the Mideast; (3) compensation from aggressors to Iran; (4) ending all regional hostilities; (5) establishing new legal system for Hormuz; (6) prosecuting and handing over media personnel conducting anti-Iran activities.
After India, Iran reportedly considering “temporary” passage of Japanese ships through Hormuz. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran is ready to temporarily lift its de facto blockade on Hormuz for Japanese ships, discussions are underway. Earlier, Iran allowed Indian LPG vessels, two new Indian ships ready to set sail.
Persian Gulf LNG last shipments soon to port, global natural gas supply cliff edge near. After the last Persian Gulf LNG shipment arrives within ten days, global supply stops. Spot Asian prices doubled to $23, Pakistan will run out at month’s end, Qatar’s 17% capacity won’t recover for 3-5 years—this energy crisis is not a short shock but a multi-year structural disaster.
Gold crashes for a week! “1983 selloff” reappears, Mideast "selling gold for cash"? Last week gold fell largest weekly since 1983. Main causes: Mideast war boosts oil prices, suppresses rate-cut expectation, tighter dollar liquidity leads to dumping. The crash repeats 1983 history: then, OPEC members with falling oil revenues were forced to sell gold reserves for cash, gold price crashed by over $100 within days.
- How to interpret this week’s sharp drop in precious metals? Zhongtai Securities says gold’s plunge, oil’s rise, the divergence signals a shift—gold has evolved from a safe-haven asset to a "trading risk asset". The US-Iran conflict overheated oil shipping ports short term, risk-reward deteriorates. The truly undervalued opportunity may lie in new energy and the global manufacturing reshaping: long-term demand for photovoltaics, storage, and non-ferrous metals is rising.
Microsoft and other cloud giants begin signing “mandatory long-term storage purchase agreements”, “storage cycle” to be reshaped. Cloud vendors shift from “rejecting long-term contracts” to “actively binding” due to rapid expansion of AI datacenters and priority on supply assurance. New agreement introduces prepayment breach clauses, pricing linked to spot market. If widespread, storage industry’s historic “supply-demand mismatch, price volatility” cycles may be structurally reshaped, but price downturns’ buffer effect for consumers will be reduced.
Musk announces building the world’s largest chip factory: annual capacity target is 50 times the current global capacity, 80% direct to space missions. Musk launches TERAFAB super chip plant plan, annual capacity target 1 terawatt—about 50x current global, 80% for space. Led by Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, this is the largest manufacturing project ever, seen by analysts as industrial support for SpaceX summer IPO aiming $1.75 trillion valuation.
Selected Research Reports
Past week was a reckoning, global markets begin to face “Iran war won’t end soon”. Global bond carnage, gold’s biggest weekly drop since 1983, US stocks fall fourth week, longest losing streak in a year. All corners of the market are finally facing reality: this conflict will be protracted and indistinct, evolving into worst-case scenario. Wall Street is accelerating defensive adjustments, reducing stocks and increasing cash to prepare for ongoing crisis.
This time is different! Stock market slow to react, central banks will eventually do QE, gold hard to hedge. Strait blockage is triggering a “mirror version of Covid” epic supply crisis, stocks are collectively in denial on the eve of a cliff. The twist: before central banks restart QE, gold faces selling not safe haven! Suggest long oil and copper, short airline stocks, embrace new era of restructuring physical assets.
Goldman on "How long will Iran war last": Market only traded "inflation", not "recession". The crisis’s core variable is not US military firepower but Hormuz’s reopening schedule. Despite frequent optimistic messages from Trump and officials claiming "weeks to resolution", Goldman says Iran’s survival logic, US political dilemma over strait control, limited escort capability, lack of mediation—all point to disruptions lasting much longer than market prices suggest.
Goldman macro trader warns: Central banks missed their chance to stabilize markets, "energy drives everything". Iran attacked world’s largest LNG facility, 3-5 year supply gap can’t be filled; Fed, ECB, and BOE failed to stabilize, instead hawkish stances tied rates to energy prices. Goldman warns quick reopening of Hormuz is unlikely, energy convexity rising, without fiscal rescue, tightening will crush economic growth.
US bonds are pricing in "rate hike"? More precisely, market is pricing "QE"! Amid intensified Mideast tension and soaring oil, US rate markets show mysterious hike pricing. Morgan Stanley thinks bond market appears to price Fed rate hike, but actually anticipates government’s massive fiscal stimulus. Post-pandemic, investors’ policy response expectation has changed: not waiting for rate cuts, but betting direct "fiscal patch" by government.
Divergences and scenario analysis of Mideast conflict. CITIC Securities says the evolution and market impact of Iran conflict shows huge expectation divergence; three core unresolved issues: (1) after the conflict intensity drops, how much navigation can be restored; (2) will Fed prioritize inflation indicators or jobs; (3) is China facing cost shock or supply chain shift opportunity. These may clarify only by April.
Karpathy’s 10,000-word deep interview: I’m anxious and addicted to AI, all verifiable domains will belong to machines. AI is taking over code and experiments full-time! Frontier star Karpathy says he’s basically stopped hand coding, aiming to kick humans out of the R&D loop with AI. Shocking assertion: all verifiable domains will become machine-controlled, only unverifiable domains left for humans. Before automation devours everything, re-anchor your value boundary.
Domestic Macro
National Internet Emergency Center and others issue OpenClaw security usage guidelines. To help users safely use OpenClaw, on March 22 National Internet Emergency Center and China Cyberspace Security Association jointly issued OpenClaw usage guidelines for regular users, organizations, cloud providers, and developers. Advice includes: install OpenClaw on dedicated devices, VMs or containers with isolation, avoid installing on daily work computers; don’t run OpenClaw as admin or superuser; don’t store or process personal data in OpenClaw; update promptly. For cloud providers: ensure basic host security, evaluations, deployment, supply chain and data protection.
- WeChat launches official Lobster plugin. WeChat just released ClawBot plugin, supporting OpenClaw integration. Users can scan code or copy command to connect OpenClaw to WeChat; then chat to efficiently interact with their “lobster”.
Domestic Companies/Industries
Which industries can maintain strong growth independent of US-Iran and high oil prices? GF Securities says overseas AI chains (such as optical communications) have deepened visibility for 2027, remain robust, but volatility is still high short term. To control portfolio volatility, recommend sectors naturally trending up and less affected by oil prices: energy storage chain (inverter/lithium), domestic AIDC chain (notably ByteDance chain).
"LED King" Lin Xiucheng has been detained and investigated by the National Supervisory Commission! His company’s market value exceeds 80 billion yuan. On March 22, Sanan Optoelectronics announced receipt of notice on March 21 that actual controller Lin Xiucheng is under detention and investigation by the National Supervisory Commission. He has not held any company position since July 2017. The company says operations are normal, governance is robust, and the matter won't significantly impact operations. Will continue to report updates.
Overseas Macro
Iran war three weeks in, US’s “oil price stabilization” cards almost played out, gap between crude spot and futures keeps widening. Goldman and Citi warn if conflict persists, crude futures could soon break 2008 record of $147.50/barrel. Futures haven’t reflected full spot rise largely due to US policy tools to suppress oil prices, but these tools are quickly running out.
US private credit “burning across the market”: subprime-style packaging, absorbing $1 trillion in “US pensions”. A “subprime” ghost haunts US insurance: high-risk assets repackaged as “top bonds”, infiltrating pension savings, insurance companies as “new shadow banks” arbitrage huge, underlying assets unknown. Regulatory fragmentation faces severe test.
Overseas Companies
ChatGPT’s first “ad sponsor”: Process “very un-AI”, no data provided. Two ad agency execs serving early ChatGPT advertisers say they cannot prove ads delivered any measurable business results. Core issue is lack of data—OpenAI only gives very basic metrics (impressions, clicks), unlike Meta, Google which provide audience demographics, conversion tracking, etc.
Beyond GTC keynote, understand Huang Renxun’s main points to Wall Street and the Internet. At GTC, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang made a bombshell claim: Nvidia’s order visibility broke $1 trillion, growth accelerating. He insists AI is entering its third turning point—the Intelligent Agent era—“each engineer will manage 100 agents”; tokens will be new wage, engineers who don’t consume tokens waste productivity. $50 trillion physical AI blue ocean awaits explosion.
Barclays “super doubled” forecast: Micron 2027 EPS will exceed $100, far above market consensus of $54. Micron’s guidance smashed expectations, memory cycle sees epic repricing! AI fuels HBM demand, extreme supply shortage boosts margins and cash flow. Barclays raises price target to $675, aiming for over $100 EPS in 2027. “Super doubling” earnings model, high long-term certainty.
Industry/Concepts
1. Photovoltaic Equipment | According to 21st Century Business Herald, on March 21 US local time, Musk announced that SpaceX and Tesla jointly launched the TERAFAB project, targeting annual production exceeding 1 terawatt computing power (logic + storage + packaging), 80% for space, 20% for ground. The facility is called “the world’s largest 2nm advanced chip factory”, located in Austin, Texas, marking a new milestone in compute history.
Comment: TERAFAB aims for more than 1 terawatt annual compute production, supporting huge data processing needs. Covers logic chips, memory, packaging, forming a complete industrial chain. Analysts say TERAFAB will advance US core industrial self-sufficiency to world-leading levels, and with space + solar dual drive, reshape global AI compute and energy, boosting equipment demand and benefiting Chinese PV equipment makers going global.
2. Domestic Computation Power | According to Securities Times Online, at the just concluded Huawei China Partner Conference 2026, Huawei debuted the Atlas 350 AI training and inference accelerator card with new Ascend 950PR processor. Seven core partners—Kunlun, Huakun Zhenyu, Shenzhou Kuntai, Yangtze Computing, Baode, Ruantong Huafang, Baixin—launched servers based on Atlas 350, marking Ascend 950 inference power enters commercial stage.
Comment: Atlas 350’s single-card compute power is 2.87x Nvidia H20, currently China’s only FP4 inference product. Ascend 950PR uses proprietary HBM tech, supports high-efficiency AI training and inference, especially for large language models. As 2026 main AI compute iteration, it brings a leap forward, with bandwidth up from 784GB/s to 2TB/s, directly driving next-gen servers volume. Model makers “fully embrace domestic compute” as core 2026 trend, 950 series expected to rapidly break through in specialized inference and ecosystem compatibility, offering new opportunities to industry-chain companies.
3. Robotics | On March 20, Shanghai Stock Exchange disclosed Unitree Robotics IPO prospectus and answers to two rounds of pre-review queries. Unitree plans to publicly issue at least 40.44 million new shares, raising 4.202 billion yuan, focusing on AI robot model R&D. From 2023 to 2025, Unitree revenue was 150 million, 390 million, and 1.7 billion yuan; net profits were -11.1451 million, 94.5018 million, and 600 million yuan.
Comment: With STAR Market support, Unitree’s all-stack self-developed tech and scalable commercial ability are expected to add core power to hard tech in China, highlighting the STAR Market’s role in serving national strategy and enabling future industries. As the global leader in general robotics by shipment and reputation, Unitree will accelerate core tech, production, and scenario application, laying the foundation for general robotics industrialization and innovation upgrades.
4. Tourism | On March 20, Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued “Policies to Promote Travel Service Export and Expand Inbound Consumption”, with 16 policies across seven areas including expanded inbound consumption, easier business activity, sports, entertainment, health, education, and support measures, defining a clear path for upgrading inbound consumption and high-quality travel service trade growth.
Comment: Analysts say inbound consumption is an important part of service export and a key growth point for service consumption. In 2025, China received 35.17 million foreign visitors, up 30.5% from 2024. Their spending on food, lodging, transport, shopping, etc., is counted in travel service exports; MOFCOM says export size reached 393.98 billion yuan in 2025, up 49.5%, 1.6 times 2019. GF Securities research says China’s inbound consumption is set for strong growth. In major countries, inbound consumption contributes 1–3% of GDP; boosting China’s share by 1.5 points could mean a 2 trillion yuan market increase.
5. Strontium Carbonate | According to Baichuan Yingfu data, March 19 price of 98% strontium carbonate was 19,500 yuan/ton, up over 142% for the month, up 152% since start of year, up 26% year-on-year. Strontium carbonate is the largest-produced, most widely used basic strontium inorganic salt, made from celestite, the core intermediate of the strontium industry chain. It is a key material for high-end manufacturing, a classic "small variety, big impact" chemical. Industrial grade is used in magnetic materials, electronic ceramics, metal smelting, fireworks, and deep processing for other strontium salts; electronic grade is mainly for LCD glass.
Comment: As celestite—strontium carbonate’s core raw—is more than 80% of the world’s proven high-grade deposits in Iran, the price surge is mainly due to supply contraction from Iran. Authoritative forecasts say prices for strontium carbonate and metal will remain high in the short term.
Today’s Key Previews
China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting.
Huawei holds spring full-scenario product launch event.
Google to launch Gemini-powered Google Marketing Platform.
US Houston major CERAWeek energy conference.
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