Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 7, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | March 7, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

US nonfarm employment cooled sharply. Coupled with war in the Middle East, oil prices kept surging, intensifying market concerns over stagflation. In addition, anxiety about the private credit industry also pushed the US stocks down.

S&P 500 fell 1.3%, losing more than 2% this week, marking the worst week since October last year. This week, the Dow and small-cap stocks led declines, falling by 3-4%. On Friday, financial stocks led losses due to turmoil in the private credit market, with BlackRock plunging 7.7%. Oracle and OpenAI cancelled plans to expand data centers in Texas, and chip manufacturers fell across the board.

The nonfarm report increased market bets on Fed rate cuts. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by about 7 basis points from the intraday high, but rebounded afterward. The US dollar fell 0.34%, but rose more than 1% for the week, marking its best week since October 2024.

Bitcoin fell 4%; Ethereum fell 4.6%, breaking below $2000.

Driven by risk aversion, spot gold rose 1.8%, spot silver rose 2.5%. However, gold was down 2% for the week, ending a four-week winning streak, and silver fell nearly 10% for the week.

WTI crude oil prices continued to surge nearly 16% on Friday, breaking through $90 and $91 within the day. Weekly gain totaled 35%, the largest weekly rise in history. European natural gas doubled during the week.

During Asian trading hours, the three major A-share indexes rose on thinner volume, with Wentai Technology spiking intraday. Smart grid stocks hit the daily limit wave again. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged over 3%, and JD jumped nearly 10%.

Key News

China

National People's Congress Economic Theme Session: The output value of six major emerging pillars is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2030; hundreds of billions in fiscal arrangement to boost domestic demand; improve mechanisms for market stabilization.

Minister of Finance Lan Fuan: Fiscal policy in 2026 will maintain a more active tone; hundreds of billions in fiscal arrangement to boost domestic demand.

Pan Gongsheng: Will guide and manage interest rates well; no intention to gain export advantage by depreciating currency; will curb "involution" competition.

Wu Qing: Improve the construction of a China-specific market stabilization mechanism; optimize refinancing mechanism; launch shelf registration for issuance.

Middle East conflict hit Asian markets hard, weekly selling of $11 billion reached a four-year high, with Chinese assets standing out as A-shares, bonds, and currency collectively outperformed.

Overseas

US February nonfarm surprised on the downside, employment fell by 92,000; previous two months revised down by 69,000, and unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%. "New Fed Newsletter": Fed's worst fear approaching.

US January retail sales -0.2% MoM, first negative growth since October last year.

US Energy Secretary said escorting will start soon; Trump: will not make any deal with Iran unless unconditional surrender. US launched $20 billion maritime reinsurance tool. Reports say Trump administration shelved Treasury's plan to "steer" oil futures. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspend major Middle East routes. Qatar: if war lasts several weeks, Gulf nations will be forced to halt production, oil prices may surge to $150 in three weeks. Kuwait cuts some oil production due to lack of storage space.

Countdown to physical delivery crisis, silver may trigger a derivatives crisis.

Fed’s Waller: Iran conflict not enough to cause lasting inflation, inclines to maintain 25bps rate cut. Nonfarm suddenly weakened, Fed's Daly says it’s hard to hike when labor market is unstable, Goolsbee expects rate cuts resuming within the year.

Korean media: Samsung Electronics expects to raise Q2 NAND prices by 100%, prices to double again!

OpenAI and Oracle abandoned Texas data center expansion. Media says Meta may take over, Nvidia is involved.

Market Closing

US & European Markets: S&P 500 fell 1.33% to 6740.02, down 2.02% this week. Dow fell 0.95% to 47501.55, down 3.01% this week. Nasdaq fell 1.59% to 22387.679, down 1.24% this week. European STOXX 600 dropped 1.02% to 598.69, down 5.55% this week.

A-shares: Shanghai index closed at 4124.19, up 0.38%. Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14172.63, up 0.59%. ChiNext index closed at 3229.30, up 0.38%.

Bonds: US 10-year benchmark treasury yield increased by 0.19 basis points to 4.1383%, up 20.08 bps this week. US 2-year treasury yield fell 1.59 bps to 3.5605%, up 18.56 bps this week.

Commodities: Spot gold rose 1.75%, at $5171/oz, down 2.06% this week. Spot silver rose 2.55%, at $84.3451/oz, down 10.06% this week. WTI April crude oil futures rose $9.89, up 12.21% to $90.90/barrel, highest settlement since October 2023; up 35.63% this week.

Details of Key News

Global Highlights

China

NPC Economic Theme Session: Six major emerging pillars projected to reach over 10 trillion yuan in output by 2030; hundreds of billions in fiscal arrangements to boost demand; improve market stabilization mechanisms. The six major pillars include integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, low-altitude economy, new energy storage, and intelligent robotics; related industry output approached 6 trillion yuan in 2025, expected to double or more by 2030, expanding past 10 trillion. By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," AI-related industries will grow to over 10 trillion. This year, central government earmarked 100 billion yuan and launched fiscal-financial synergy policy bundles to boost demand.

Minister of Finance Lan Fuan: 2026 fiscal policy will persist with a more active tone; hundreds of billions in fiscal arrangements to boost demand. Lan Fuan said this year will continue last year’s expansionary tone and keep the strength. Central government allocated 100 billion yuan for fiscal-financial synergy packages to boost demand, forming a transmission chain from fiscal to financial leverage to market operation, attracting large-scale social resources to areas key for consumption. This year’s 250 billion yuan policy for trade-in consumer goods exceeds last year's strength.

Pan Gongsheng: Will guide and manage interest rates well, not aiming for trade advantage by currency depreciation, will curb "involution" competition. Pan Gongsheng said RMB/USD level is within the central range seen over years. China is neither necessary nor intending to gain competitive advantage through currency depreciation. From the financial perspective, will curb "involution-style" competition in some industries, support economic restructuring and transformation, strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policy in discounts, guarantees, risk-sharing, and amplify policy effects.

Wu Qing: Improve China-specific market stabilization mechanisms, optimize refinancing, launch shelf registration. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan," will improve market stabilization mechanism, enrich counter-cyclical regulatory tools, enhance market stability. Will set more precise, inclusive listing standards for the ChiNext Board and support innovative companies in new consumption and modern services to list. Will optimize refinancing registration rules and launch shelf registration to guide rational, effective financing.

Middle East conflict hit Asian markets, Chinese assets stood out, stocks, bonds, currency collectively outperformed! This week, Asian markets dropped over 6%, but CSI 300 A-shares only fell about 1%. RMB outperformed most Asian currencies and treasury yields fell counter to trend, becoming a regional "stabilizer". MUFG Bank believes with steady policy expectations, Chinese markets offer a "safe haven" during global political instability.

Overseas

US February nonfarm surprised, payrolls decreased by 92,000, previous two months revised down by 69,000, unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%. US February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, far below expectations, second monthly drop since 2020; unemployment rose to 4.4%. BLS revised previous figures down by 69,000. With weak employment across the board, average hourly wage growth accelerated to 3.8% YoY, showing persistent labor cost pressures. Coupled with rising oil prices due to the Middle East, shrinking employment coexists with firm wages, putting Fed policy in a dilemma and intensifying stagflation fears.

  • "New Fed Newsletter": Fed's worst scenario looms. Timiraos suggests the Fed may just watch and wait, and already signaled no urgency for rate cut at this month's meeting — even concerning data won't sway them. He refers to Fed officials' statements: one month’s data shouldn’t trigger excessive reaction but rising inflation and unemployment together is bad; Middle East conflict might become a repeat of Russia-Ukraine, avoid repeating 2021's error of judging inflation as "transitory". Wall Street says the report undermined stability judgments but panic is premature.

US January retail sales -0.2% MoM, first negative since October last year. Impacted by winter storms and weak car sales, US January retail sales fell 0.2% MoM, first negative reading since last October and the largest monthly drop since last May. Excluding autos, sales were flat MoM; core "control group" sales grew 0.3%, showing underlying resilience. Online sales grew against the trend, and real consumption volumes held up. Economists expect tax refunds may boost consumer spending in coming quarters.

US Energy Secretary vows to start escorting soon, Trump: No deal with Iran unless unconditional surrender. US escorting requires greatly reducing Iran’s destructive capacity; oil price surge is only a temporary disruption, short-term measures taken to lower gasoline prices; allowing India to buy Russian oil is a temporary measure, doesn’t change US policy on Russia. Trump says oil prices will soon plunge, already struck Iran's navy, secured the Strait of Hormuz; US defense companies agreed to quadruple "elite" weapon production. WH spokesperson said Trump will judge if Iran is unconditionally surrendered, regardless of Iran's acknowledgment. WH advisor Hassett says strategic oil reserves won’t be released soon. Iran says US quick-war plan failed, launched new-gen missiles at multiple US bases Friday; prepared for prolonged war and developing new weapons; will use new-gen long-range missiles in coming days. Russian media says Putin and Iranian presidents spoke and agreed to keep in touch.

Trump's first step to secure Gulf shipping: US launches $20 billion maritime reinsurance tool. US International Development Finance Corp (DFC) says reinsurance applies only to ship insurance with max $20bn capacity in rolling format; partnered with top industry insurers and US Central Command, responsible for Middle East military operations.

Conflict escalation: Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd pause major Middle East routes. Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd halted multiple key Middle East trade routes, covering Far East-Middle East, Middle East-Europe, and Arabian Gulf channels. Analysts say trade disruptions are becoming structural, not short-term; increased freight and delays are affecting manufacturing and consumption, intensifying inflation.

Middle East fires cut routes, insurance soared 10x, oil tanker transit cost up to $7.5 million. Per Jefferies, pre-conflict hull war insurance rate was about 0.25%, now up to 3%; typical hull war premium about $7.5 million, increase of over 10x. Nearly 1,000 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, at least 7 damaged; potential sector loss may reach $1.75 billion.

Qatar: If war lasts weeks, Gulf states will be forced to halt production, oil price could surge to $150 in next three weeks. Qatar energy minister issues stern warning: even if fighting stops now, Qatar needs "weeks or months" to resume normal LNG deliveries. If Hormuz Strait keeps blocked, oil might reach $150/barrel in 2-3 weeks, gas could rise to $40/mmbtu, nearly 4x pre-war level.

WTI oil surge expands to 8%, Kuwait cuts oil output due to storage space shortage. Strait shipping shut down triggers storage crisis, Kuwait forced to cut oil output for lack of storage space, becoming the first oil producer to reduce production due to "tank topping". Iraq has already cut more than half capacity, Saudi tanks may hit capacity limit within three weeks. Supply disruption fears mount, WTI oil rises 8%.

Report: Trump admin shelved Treasury’s plan to “steer” oil futures. The Trump administration has shelved its controversial plan for the Treasury to directly trade oil futures. Currently weighing options for stabilizing oil prices — including providing insurance for Strait of Hormuz oil tankers, naval escort, and waiving fuel blend requirements. Releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is seen as the most direct intervention, but faces operational constraints as only 60% stock remains, heavy equipment wear, maintenance backlog and operational complexity.

Countdown to physical delivery crisis: Silver may trigger a derivatives crisis. Precious metals analyst Bill Holter calculates COMEX silver saw 52 million ounces requested for physical delivery in early March, inventory after delivery fell below 35 million ounces. As time progresses, delivery queue contract volumes only grow, and the delivery shortfall risk is clear. If silver defaults on delivery, contagion may quickly hit gold and ultimately trigger a $20 trillion global derivatives crisis.

Fed’s Waller: Iran conflict not enough to cause lasting inflation, prefers maintaining 25bps rate cut. Fed Board Member Waller said the Iran war will not cause lasting inflation, reaffirming a bias for a 25bps rate cut; emphasized that core inflation (excluding food and energy) is the reliable forward-looking indicator. Markets expect Fed to keep rates unchanged at March meeting.

Nonfarm sharply weakens, Fed's Daly says hard to hike with unstable labor market, Goolsbee hopes for rate cuts by year-end. US February nonfarm was notably weaker than forecasts. SF Fed President Daly said the jobs report undermines stabilization in labor market, and it’s hard to hike rates with an unstable jobs market. But with high oil prices and inflation still strong, Fed shouldn’t rush to cut. Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee said he hopes inflation keeps falling so the Fed can resume rate cuts by year-end.

Korean media: Samsung expects Q2 NAND prices to double again! Samsung already raised NAND prices 100% in Q1, this round puts Q2 prices up 2x from end-2023. Seoul Economic News reports that AI boom plus reduced supply (shift to HBM production) keeps NAND shortage going. SK Hynix and KIOXIA will follow suit.

OpenAI and Oracle abandon Texas data center expansion, media says Meta may take over, Nvidia involved. Media reports due to financing issues and changing demand forecasts from OpenAI, Oracle and OpenAI dropped plans for Abilene, Texas data center expansion. Developer Crusoe is seeking new tenants, Meta is considering leasing the expansion site, Nvidia has paid a $150 million deposit and is helping ensure the newly expanded center uses its AI chips.

Research Highlights

Hormuz Strait closed another 3 days, Middle East will have 3.3 million bpd oil forced offline, Iraq is worst hit! JPMorgan latest calculation shows due to severe unevenness in storage capacity among Middle East oil producers, forced production halt warning window shrank from "25 days" to "3 days", cumulative output loss will approach 3.3 million bpd by day 8. Iraq's supply runs out in two days, Saudi critical tanks already full.

"Tipping point" approaching: JPMorgan says chaos in Middle East causes real supply shock, aluminum prices eye $4000! JPMorgan warns Qatar Energy and other Middle East smelters are shutting or declaring force majeure, affecting nearly 18% of global primary aluminum exports; alumina inventory only enough for weeks, bigger cuts from smelters are imminent. If reductions persist, aluminum could surge to $4000/ton quickly. BofA raised forecast for aluminum supply gap in 2026 from 1 million to 1.5 million tons.

Raising lobsters: The biggest AI storm this year. AI assistant OpenClaw—nicknamed the “lobster”—is sweeping the world. This open-source tool has OS-level access, can become a digital avatar and autonomously read news, send emails, write code, and even trade online. It became GitHub's fastest growing open-source project and spurred Chinese models like Kimi and MiniMax to fit it. From dialogue assistance to autonomous execution, the boundaries of AI capabilities have leaped again.

WTI oil surge expands to 8%, Kuwait cuts oil output due to storage space shortage. Hormuz Strait shipping halt triggered storage crisis; Kuwait cut oil output since storage space ran out, becoming the first oil producer in this round to reduce output due to "tank topping". Iraq cut more than half, Saudi tanks may fill within 3 weeks. Supply disruption worry pushed WTI up 8%.

Domestic Companies

Stricter restrictions for Chinese companies in Europe may lead to "lose-lose" scenario; EU releases bill to push "EU manufacturing". According to Global Times, EU published the "Industrial Accelerator Bill" on March 4 to push "EU manufacturing" via local content quotas, forced tech transfer, and limits on foreign ownership, tightening restrictions on Chinese enterprises in Europe. China Chamber of Commerce in the EU opposed, warning protectionism would hinder EU green transition and lead to "lose-lose" in China-EU economic cooperation. Internal debate on bill is strong, and its finalization remains uncertain.

Wentai Technology surged; Anshi China responds to "all employee office accounts disabled in China". On March 6, Nexperia B.V.—parent of Anshi Semiconductor (China)—disabled office accounts for China employees en masse on March 3, interrupting SAP and key systems, with some production workflows like "order processing on SAP after supplier wafer arrives" interrupted. China IT and business departments jointly launched emergency plans to restore key systems and scheduling. Most operations have resumed, securing basic business.

ZTE's 2025 revenue up 10% YoY, net profit down 33.3%, computing demand drives government/enterprise business up 100%. Under the "connection + computing power" strategy, ZTE returned to revenue growth but profits declined sharply, net profit at 5.618 billion in 2025, down 33.32%. Government/business up 100.49% to 37.222 billion yuan due to server and storage demand, becoming a new growth engine.

Overseas Macroeconomics

Gulf countries may reconsider overseas investments as Iran crisis impacts sovereign wealth fund layouts. As US-Iran conflict escalates, Gulf SWF commitments in the hundreds of billions face "uncertainty". Saudi, UAE, Qatar have quietly started internal reviews, weighing force majeure clauses. Hormuz Strait shipping nearly paralyzed, energy facilities under attack, budget pressure rises sharply.

Overseas Companies

Borrow to invest! Softbank plans record $40 billion financing for OpenAI. Softbank plans $40bn in financing to support its huge investment in OpenAI, potentially its largest dollar loan ever. Masayoshi Son hopes heavy bets on OpenAI and Arm will secure AI core status, but S&P downgraded outlook due to liquidity and debt pressure. As leverage rises and AI investments top $70 billion, Softbank pursues AI dominance but faces financial stability risk.

Today's Key News Preview

China's February foreign exchange reserves.

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