Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | November 18, 2025

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | November 18, 2025

```

Huajian Good Morning Voice

Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit—what information is catalyzing this? Lithium carbonate prices reach new highs! What factors are driving market performance?

All listeners, please upgrade to the latest version of Jianwen APP so you can successfully listen to the following audio.

Market Overview

The three major US stock indices all hit new one-month lows. The Dow fell more than 1%, with the financial and energy sectors dropping nearly 2%, leading the S&P decline; chip index down more than 1%, third consecutive drop; Nvidia retreated by nearly 2%. However, after Berkshire’s holdings, Google rebounded more than 3% against the market; the China concept index fell more than 1%, fifth consecutive drop; XPeng fell 10% after earnings report.

US Treasury prices saw reduced declines after two consecutive days of rising yields, with the 10-year Treasury yields falling. The dollar index continued to move away from its four-week low; yen hit a nine-month low; offshore yuan fell over 100 points intraday, dropping below 7.11, away from its two-week high. Cryptocurrency deep in a bear market, Bitcoin fell below $92,000 intraday, dropping nearly 5% at one point.

Oil, which had rebounded for two days, fell back. Gold dropped three straight days to a one-week low; gold futures fell more than 2% intraday.

In Asia, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fluctuated lower; ChiNext down 0.2%; the Technology Index fell more than 0.96%, but lithium mining and AI application sectors bucked the trend and strengthened.

Headlines

China–Germany high-level financial dialogue held in Beijing, achieving consensus on multiple outcomes and ending trade tensions.

Trump’s chief economic adviser Hassett: AI-driven productivity may lead to a “calm period” in the job market, time for the Fed to “truly be data-driven.”

Top candidate for Fed Chair, Fed Governor Waller backs rate cut in December; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizes slow and cautious policy moves.

Trump supports tough measures against drug cartels, mentions threat of military strikes. Mexican peso hits daily low.

“White House Stock God” Trump’s latest financial disclosure: one trade per day on average, wildly buying enterprise bonds that benefit from policies.

“White House tech mogul” Peter Thiel greatly reduced holdings in Q3, sold out Nvidia, bought new holdings in Microsoft and Apple.

Bitcoin fell below $92,000 intraday, market cap evaporated by $600 billion in six weeks; faith shaken, institutions on the sidelines; Bitcoin's “post-halving crash” curse may be fulfilled; however, whale Strategy still bought over $830 million last week, the biggest weekly buy since July last year.

US citizens "resist" data center frenzy, “situation escalates rapidly,” in just three months, 8 projects stalled, 9 projects delayed.

SMIC responds to no big Q4 guidance jump: high memory prices lead customers to be cautious for future orders; high prices likely to persist.

Several Hong Kong-listed automakers released Q3 reports, earnings call reveals optimism for next year; XPeng losses narrowed; Leapmotor maintained profitability; Geely profits soared.

Luckin Coffee Q3 net revenue up 50% YoY; monthly average transaction clients first broke the 100 million mark, no timeline for US stock return.

Wall Street consensus emerges? JPMorgan just marked out a “key defense line”, Goldman Sachs also warns S&P 6725 is the bull-bear dividing line; “New Bond King” Gundlach: US stocks in one of the least healthy states.

Market Wrap

Europe/US Stock Markets: S&P 500 down 0.92% to 6,672.41. Dow down 1.18% to 46,590.24. Nasdaq down 0.84% to 22,708.075. Europe STOXX 600 Index down 0.54% to 571.68.

A-Shares: Shanghai Composite down 0.46% to 3,972.03, Shenzhen Component down 0.11% to 13,202, ChiNext down 0.2% to 3,105.2.

Bond Market: At market close, US ten-year benchmark Treasury yield about 4.14%, down about 1 basis point during the day; two-year Treasury yield about 3.61%, flat from last Friday.

Commodities: WTI December crude futures down 0.30% to $59.91/barrel; Brent January crude down about 0.3% to $64.20/barrel; COMEX December gold futures down 0.48% to $4,074.5/oz; LME aluminum futures down about 1.6% to $2,814/ton.

Headline Details

Global Highlights

China-Germany high-level financial dialogue held in Beijing; consensus reached on multiple outcomes, trade tensions ended. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and German Vice Chancellor/Finance Minister Lindner co-chaired the fourth China-Germany high-level financial dialogue. He stated China is willing to work with Germany for the important consensus reached by the leaders, opening a new chapter of all-round strategic partnership to contribute to world economic growth. Lindner said Germany wants to strengthen economic and financial exchanges and push for more development in bilateral ties.

Trump's chief economic adviser Hassett: AI may cause a job market “calm period”, time for the Fed to become “truly data-driven.” This is a rare public admission by Trump administration officials that AI threatens to replace low-level jobs. Hassett also revealed the US is close to a trade deal with India, noted monthly shopping spending soared under Biden but was flat once Trump returned, stressed real wages and purchasing power are rising.

Fed Governor Waller supports December rate cut; Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizes slow/cautious moves. Waller, a leading candidate for next Fed Chair, supports a rate cut at the December meeting, citing concerns over labor market slowing. Jefferson also said downside risks for jobs have risen, but notes policymakers must be cautious as rates nears neutral; he did not give a clear stance on rate cut timing.

Trump threatens military action, Mexican peso hits daily low. Trump supports tough action against Mexican drug cartels/producers. He said he’d attack Mexico to stop drug trafficking if necessary. Mexican President Sheinbaum has repeatedly denied reports of US military entering Mexico for anti-drug operations and rejected Trump’s proposals multiple times.

“Cost of living” has become Trump’s focus, BofA: White House to step up “price intervention”, trade war “ended”. With elections sending warnings about cost of living, Trump's administration is urgently refocusing on curbing prices as a core agenda item. The White House plans tariffs cuts, direct subsidies, antitrust probes to ease inflation, signaling a major reversal of its hardline trade stance—a “trade war end” signal, say markets.

“White House Stock God” Trump latest financial report: one trade per day average, wildly buying “policy beneficiaries” company bonds. According to an official disclosure, Trump made at least 175 financial transactions Aug 28–Oct 2, buying at least $82 million of company/municipal bonds, including Intel, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Meta, etc. Total bond purchases may exceed $337 million.

“White House tech mogul” Peter Thiel Q3 greatly reduced holdings, cleared out Nvidia, newly bought Microsoft and Apple. Billionaire Peter Thiel’s fund made major moves last quarter: cleared out Nvidia, trimmed Tesla by 76%, and newly opened positions in Microsoft/Apple, cutting overall US stock holdings by about two thirds. This move reflects his warning on the AI “hype cycle.”

Market cap wiped out by $600 billion in six weeks! Faith shaken, institutions on sidelines—is Bitcoin “post-halving crash” curse coming true? Recently, Bitcoin plunged at highs, dropping below $92,000 intraday Monday, wiping out $600 billion market cap—losing all its annual gains. Crash triggered by fears of the “halving cycle”—supply decline spurs boom then deep retracement. Panic selling, stagnant institutional money, and macro headwinds together crushed market confidence.

Americans “resist” data center frenzy, “situation escalating fast”—in three months, 8 projects stalled, 9 delayed! Between March–June 2025, local US community opposition blocked or delayed $98 billion worth of data center projects, far exceeding the $64 billion total for nearly a year before. Resistance now crosses partisan lines—blocking seen from Democrats’ Virginia to Republican Indiana/Kentucky. However, Big Tech’s AI-driven investment enthusiasm continues unabated.

Memory chips prices surge, PC/server makers squeezed! Morgan Stanley: Every 10% price hike cuts OEM margin by 45–150bps. Morgan Stanley warns memory prices are soaring on AI demand and supply shortages, with DRAM spot up 260% in two months. Dell, HP seen as most vulnerable due to high DRAM cost share; Apple can better withstand cost with strong supply chain leverage; Lenovo’s enterprise PC business is better able to pass on costs.

SMIC responds: No Q4 guidance surge: high memory prices cause customers to hold off, high prices expected to last. SMIC co-CEO Zhao Haijun says customers worry about memory supply affecting assembly, high costs squeeze prices for other chips, so clients take a conservative view into H1 2026. Even 5% supply-demand imbalance causes doubled price swings; new suppliers need 16 months from tape-out to mass production; high prices seen to persist.

Multiple Hong Kong-listed automakers released Q3 results, earnings call reveals optimism for next year; XPeng’s losses narrowed, Leapmotor sustained profitability, Geely’s profits soared.

Luckin Coffee Q3 net revenue up 50% YoY; monthly average transaction clients first broke 100 million; no timetable for US stock listing. Luckin kept rapid expansion in Q3, revenue up 50% YoY, monthly transaction clients broke 100 million—but profits under pressure because of soaring delivery costs from a surge in takeaway orders. Delivery fees up 211% YoY, core reason for margin drop. The company insists on scale-first, stresses pickup as core model and will accelerate store-opening, reinforce products and brand. Luckin says it’s committed to returning to US capital markets but no clear timeline yet.

Morgan Stanley Wilson outlook to 2026: AI-driven strong profit growth, S&P 500 could climb to 7,800, yield curve “bull steepening”, gold still top pick . Morgan Stanley sees 2026 as the “risk reboot year” when focus shifts from macro to micro; rare “triple play” of fiscal, monetary, regulatory policy and AI investment cycle resonance will drive strong earnings and S&P 500 to 7,800, a 15% rise, on 17% profit growth expectations.

BofA Hartnett: The “best trade” for 2026 is “shorting cloud giants’ bonds”; unlikely to stop buying stocks before next May. Hartnett thinks AI sparks massive capex beyond cash flow, pushing companies into heavy borrowing, but global easy credit era peaked, credit risks high. He expects no major risk aversion until the appointment of a new Fed chair on May 15 next year, so allocators will keep buying stocks until then.

Wall Street consensus emerging? JPMorgan just mapped “key defense,” Goldman also warns S&P 6725 is bull-bear line. S&P 500’s 6,725 seen by Goldman as key, if broken triggers trend reversal and CTA systematic selling. Wall Street warns key support under pressure; Russell 2000 already broke down. Money flowing from tech to healthcare defensive sectors; Nvidia volatility notably increased. As earnings/jobs data approaches, deeper market risk possible.

Hedge fund CIO: everyone is prepping for 2026, Trump “at all costs” to win the election, “expect Q1 rally, sell in May”. Analysis suggests Wall Street is reallocating strategies around Trump’s policy cycle; fiscal stimulus expected to drive Q1 economic growth/risk assets, but supply-demand imbalance may force higher rates instead of cuts; midterm elections in 2026 will be pivotal for markets.

“New Bond King” Gundlach: $1.7 trillion market now full of 'junk lending', may be the next 'financial minefield'. Gundlach compares private credit’s “junk lending” to 2006’s pre-subprime speculation, says “private credit only has two prices—100 or zero”; believes US stocks now in one of the most unhealthy states, avoid highly speculative AI bets; suggests holding 20% cash, hedging for impending crash.

China Macro

China MOF: first 10 months nationwide general public budget revenue up 0.8% YoY, spending up 2%, securities stamp tax up 88.1%. Jan–Oct, general public budget revenue ¥18.649 trillion, up 0.8% YoY; tax revenue up, non-tax revenue down; securities stamp tax up 88.1%. General public budget expenditure ¥22.5825 trillion, up 2% YoY.

German finance minister stresses “dialogue is needed” during China visit: Most global problems need cooperation with China. According to Global Times, German FM Lindner emphasized “many world problems only solvable via cooperation with China” when leading delegation to China, clearly signaling “dialogue not decoupling.” The China-Germany dialogue will discuss financial regulation, market access, rare earth exports, and Ukraine crisis.

Travel agencies see mass Japan tour cancellations: over 60% dropouts, Japan travel stocks crash. According to The Paper, after warnings from China’s MFA/Culture & Tourism to avoid Japan, agencies report tour cancellation rates over 60%, some groups canceled entirely. Domestic airlines offer free changes but agencies still bear costs. Nov 17, Japanese travel stocks plummeted; Mitsukoshi Isetan fell over 11%, Shiseido dropped over 9%, JAL and other travel stocks also fell sharply—heavy hit for the industry.

Chinese Companies

Qianwen APP officially launched, Alibaba builds AI super gateway! Alibaba officially ignites the AI to C market. After AI infrastructure and Taobao Flash Sales, it launches its third strategic megaproject this year—the Qianwen APP. It aims to build China’s “ChatGPT” and an AI super gateway. Qianwen runs the Qwen3-Max top global model and is “open and free for all.” Alibaba wants not only the strongest model but also the best personal AI assistant.

Ganfeng Lithium chairman's blockbuster prediction: lithium carbonate to break ¥150,000—or ¥200,000/ton by 2026! Chairman Li Liangbin predicts if lithium carbonate demand passes 30% or even 40% by 2026, prices may break ¥150k or ¥200k/ton. Booming energy storage and strong new energy car demand are new engines; inventories keep dropping and supply gap visible—lithium market at a cyclical turning point.

Geely’s Q3 profit up 59%, Zeekr deliveries up 13% YoY. Geely Q3 net profit soared 59% to ¥3.82 billion, driven by both ICE and NEV sales, pushing total sales up 43% to 761,000 units, and income rose 27%. Zeekr Q3 deliveries 140,000 units, up 13%, income ¥31.6 billion. Exec Gui Shengyue said Zeekr and Geely will complete merger by year-end.

Hillhouse makes big move! Three public market funds merged into a $15B+ fund. Hillhouse is merging three public market funds into a new $15B+ vehicle for streamlined operations and more investment flexibility. The restructuring comes as China stocks rebound, aiming to combine HHLR flagship, pure long A-share, and three-year “misaligned” fund strengths, coping with shrinking AUM and changing investor profiles.

Overseas Macro

Besant: “Needs Congress approval”, Trump’s $2,000 tax rebate is just an “empty check”? Trump’s tax rebate proposal would cost $600B—twice 2025's total US tariff income. In current politics, passing Congress is “minimal probability.” Besant also hinted the $2,000 “dividend” could come in other forms—lumping together “tip/tax-free,” “overtime/tax-free” policies and calling it equivalent to giving citizens a $2,000 dividend.

Japan GDP shrinks first time in six quarters, less than expected; 10-year JGB yield hits 17-year high. Japan's Q3 was first economic contraction in six quarters, but 1.8% annualized drop beat forecasts thanks to 1% corporate capex growth. The report exposes weak domestic/external demand, limiting BOJ hikes and shifting focus to potential new stimulus policy.

Fiscal expansion fears triggered heavy Japan long bond selloff; 20-year yield hits 1999 high. Japan's long-term bonds were sold on fiscal worries, 20-year yield hit 25-year high, 30/40-year yields also rose. Markets alert for stimulus size and possible extra issuance risks. Investors watching this week’s 20-year bond auction.

When safe assets fail—what does gold and US stocks falling together mean? This signals tightening liquidity; gold and S&P 500 had 0.22 positive correlation in Nov, investors selling profitable assets to cover losses. In short term, gold may swing with risk assets as investors seek liquidity. Analysis warns with AI bubble worries rising, gold may not hedge tech stock risk short term.

Overseas Companies

“Performance is stunning”—Google's big model hyped before rare launch, Gemini 3.0 debut this week? Prediction markets bet Gemini 3.0 launches this week; Pichai’s social media hints taken as confirmation. Insiders call the new model “extremely stunning,” expecting major progress in coding/multimedia generation. Analysts believe the new model may give Google the edge, especially with OpenAI’s GPT-5 yet to have major impact.

Gemini 3 “advance screening” explosive: seamless game integration, highly realistic SVG animation. Gemini 3 previewed powerful multi-modal ability—merging different games in “Minecraft” style tower defense, and using SVG to remake fully interactive Switch emulator; fans rushed to test. Alphabet shares have surged 46% this year.

Apple iPhone may stagger release strategy: premium models in Autumn, standard version in Spring next year. Analyst Gurman says releasing all new iPhones in autumn has “become a burden”—causes uneven annual income, strains marketing/engineering, and overloads supply chain.

Interpreting Microsoft’s “50-year AI architecture” plan: “If you’re just a model company, you may suffer a winner’s curse”. Microsoft's long-term AI strategy aims to avoid “winner’s curse” of pure model companies (model gets copied/open source, value drops). Its focus: building a sustainable, flexible AI infrastructure for 50 years. Azure positioned as multi-model (OpenAI, internal MAI, 3rd party, open source) universal platform, not single-model optimization.

Amazon plans $12B US bond sale, first dollar bond in three years! As AI computing demand explodes, tech giants are issuing large debt to fund multi-billion-dollar infrastructure expansion.

Novo Nordisk launching “price war”? Wegovy and Ozempic slashed to challenge Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk cut Wegovy/Ozempic self-pay to $199 opening, $349 after—taking on Eli Lilly's Zepbound. Move aims to win back US weight-loss market, and weaken compounding pharmacy generics.

Reports: UBS HQ considering move to US, protesting Swiss regulator's “extreme” $26B capital requirement.

Industries/Concepts

1. Cosmetics | National Medical Products Administration issued “Opinions on Deepening Cosmetics Regulatory Reform to Promote High-Quality Industry Development”, proposing more industry support. Provincial regulators encouraged to seek government support and policies, foster a good innovation environment, support green/low-carbon, boost brands, develop international leaders, launch new products in China first. Aim for a first-launch economy aligned with global standards.

Commentary: Analysis sees the Chinese cosmetics industry moving from scale expansion to tech/efficacy/sustainable high-quality phase. In 2024, it formed a huge market of ¥1.0738 trillion, expected to grow steadily 5–10% in coming five years; local brands broke 55% share. Chinese brands use Oriental aesthetics, from “white = beauty” to “multi-skin-tone aesthetics,” boosting both cultural confidence and commercial value. Future: build industry-wide ecosystem/capability wall, strengthen R&D, focus on Oriental aesthetics, global expansion—going from “cosmetics giant” to “cosmetics superpower.”

2. 3D Printing | CCTV reports: Aviation Industry Corp of China independently developed a minimalist 3D-printed turbojet engine, completed first flight, marking major engineering breakthrough. The 30-minute test peaked at 6,000 meters, max speed 0.75 Mach, full engine state—all parameters normal, test successful.

Commentary: 3D printing is moving from technical validation to mass application, entering a golden growth phase. 2024 global market hit $21.9B; China size ~¥41.5B. By 2030, global market to $84–115B, CAGR 20–30%; China may break ¥100B. With full industry chain and policy support, China shifts from “prototype” to “direct manufacture”—may take major global industry role.

3. Domestic Chips | Synced reports: Teams from HKU, HKUST, Xidian broke the on-chip ADC “black hole” in compute-in-memory architecture (ADC used 87% of energy), using memristor programmability to build adaptive “smart ruler”—slashed AI chip power by 57.2%, area by 30.7%, paving new path for next-gen efficient AI hardware.

Commentary: AI compute needs soaring exponentially; data center power, edge device (watches, drones) battery life now pain points. Long-term, this breakthrough is key “next-gen AI hardware” tech, with potential for sector transformation.

4. Lithium Batteries | Nov 17, Baichuan Yingfu data: several lithium battery materials rose in price. Ethylene carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte up 23.26%, 5.93%, 4.93% over previous day.

Commentary: Zheshang Securities says with inventory drawdown, above-expected storage demand, lithium battery chain sees price hikes and rising prosperity. Storage systems mainly consist of battery packs, BMS, EMS, PCS, and other equipment. By 2024, China’s storage cell global share is 93%+, storage system 76%; domestic firms will benefit from the storage cycle boom. Demand from EV, storage, consumer electronics strong, driving supply-demand improvement; tight segments already hiking prices, lithium sector at a turning point.

5. Controlled Nuclear Fusion | Recently, Fusion New Energy (Anhui) Co. project procurement totalled over ¥2B. Items include BEST ion cyclotron source system, cryogenic system key parts, BEST shield cladding stainless/boron steel blocks, etc.

Commentary: CICC believes fusion has benefits of environmental friendliness, abundant resources, high energy density, self-limiting reactions. China lists fusion as a future industrial focus; US, Japan, UK push via special legislation/funding for faster rollout, from strategy to practice all-chain support. FIA stats: as of mid-2025, global fusion funding totals $9.766B, up $2.643B on 2024. Globally, fusion is transitioning to 100MW-class projects—several demo devices expected in 5–10 years.

6. Quantum Technology | Nov 17, press conference by Anhui gov: 2025 Quantum Science & Industry Conference set for Nov 20–21 at Hefei Binhu Expo Center; theme “Century Quantum Intelligence for the Future”; expected over 600 units, 4,000+ participants from 10+ provinces, new records for scale/companies/exhibition size.

Commentary: Guotai Haitong Securities says quantum computing now the most disruptive frontier tech, forming a pattern integrating basic research, engineering, applications, industry. Quantum computing has completed superiority verification; superconducting, ion trap, neutral atom, photonic, silicon semiconductor, etc, form diverse development. This open, diversified approach will persist; basic/engineering research keep advancing, applications expand in many sectors, ecosystem emerging. The US and China lead globally; quantum error correction breakthroughs will directly affect computation progress.

Today's Key Events Preview

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed visits White House, meets President Trump.

Fed Governor Barr, Richmond Fed President Barkin to speak.

Microsoft Ignite 2025 tech conference runs Nov 18–21.

Pinduoduo, Xiaomi, Baidu, iQIYI, Futu report earnings.

<End of full text>

Risk Reminder and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider users’ individual goals, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether the opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their own situation. Investments based on this article are at the user’s own risk. ```