Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | October 31, 2025

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Market Overview

Investors have doubts about Fed rate cut prospects; the market did not rebound from yesterday’s Powell-induced sell-off. In addition, Meta triggered widespread concerns about the AI input-output ratio. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell, technology stocks led the decline, Nasdaq fell nearly 1.6%.

Meta plunged 11%, Alphabet up 2.5%, eBay plummeted 15.88%. China concept stock index fell nearly 1.9%. After hours on Thursday, Post-earnings Amazon surged 13%, Apple up 3%, boosting Nasdaq futures by 1.2% in Asia-Pacific early Friday.

Major U.S. Treasury yields extended yesterday’s gains, 10Y rose 2.32bps. After the ECB decision, EUR/USD fell as much as 0.78% from the daily high, Dollar up 0.4%, above 99. Cryptocurrencies plunged; Bitcoin fell three days straight, below $110,000, down 3.5% intraday; Ethereum once down 6.9%.

Spot gold up 2.38%, rebounded above $4000. Crude oil narrow range volatility. NY copper futures fell over 4% intraday.

In Asia, all fell together after noon, SSE Composite lost 4000 points, rare earth permanent magnet surged, CPO leaders plunged, Hang Seng Tech down 0.7%, government bonds rebounded.

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Top News

Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Trump in Busan. Ministry of Commerce: China-U.S. economic and trade teams reached consensus on three outcomes.

Bassent: Fed chair candidate may be selected before Christmas, dislikes current rate-cut wording.

ECB holds steady for the third time, keeping deposit rate at 2%, economic resilience withstands trade headwinds; Lagarde: Core inflation consistent with 2% target, inflation outlook more uncertain than before. Q3 eurozone GDP up 0.2% QoQ beating expectations, French growth hits near 3-year high, Germany stalls.

Bank of Japan holds rates, two committee members again oppose.

Services supported Apple’s record high revenue for the quarter, China sales unexpectedly fell, iPhone weak off-season sales, but double-digit growth expected this quarter.

AWS posts fastest growth in three years, capital expenditure beats, Amazon up 14% after hours.

Tesla’s trillion-dollar pay package for Musk opposed by key shareholders.

OpenAI reportedly considers submitting IPO as soon as H2 2026, listing in 2027, valued at $1T.

After Jefferies, BlackRock embroiled in shocking lender fraud scandal.

Zepbound sales tripled after price cut, Eli Lilly Q3 results beat, full-year guidance raised.

High-end optical modules drive earnings surge, Zhongji Xuchuang Q3 net profit 3.137B yuan, up 124.98% YoY.

BYD Q3 revenue 195B yuan, net profit attributable to parent 7.82B yuan.

Seres Q3 revenue up 15.75% YoY, net profit down 1.74%.

NAURA Technology Q3 net profit 1.92B yuan, up 14.60% YoY, domestic market continues to grow.

Market Wrap-up

European/U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 down 0.99% to 6822.34 points. Dow Jones down 0.23% to 47522.12 pts. Nasdaq down 1.58% to 23581.144 pts. European STOXX 600 closed down 0.10% at 574.83 pts.

A Shares: SSE Composite down 0.73% to 3986.90 pts; Shenzhen Component down 1.16% to 13532.13 pts; ChiNext down 1.84% to 3263.02 pts.

Bond Market: U.S. 10Y Treasury yield up 1.35bps to 4.0892%. 2Y up 1.02bps to 3.6082%.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures up 0.73% to $4030/oz. WTI Dec crude futures up 0.15% to $60.57/bbl. Brent Dec crude futures up 0.12% to $65.00/bbl.

Key News in Detail

Top Global News

Xi Jinping meets U.S. President Trump in Busan. Xi noted that both economic/trade teams exchanged views on key issues, reached consensus for resolving problems. Both sides to detail and confirm follow-up steps quickly, uphold and implement consensus, bringing real results—giving China, U.S. and the world economies a “reassurance pill.” Both leaders agreed to maintain frequent contact. Trump looks forward to visiting China early next year, invites President Xi to visit the U.S.

Ministry of Commerce: China-U.S. teams reached consensus on three outcomes.

U.S. will cancel its extra 10% “fentanyl tariffs” on Chinese goods (including Hong Kong and Macau). 24% reciprocal tariffs will remain suspended for one more year. China will adjust countermeasures accordingly. Both sides agreed to extend some tariff exemption measures.
Ministry of Commerce: U.S. to suspend for one year the 50% export control penetration rule announced Sept 29. China will also suspend its export controls announced Oct 9 for one year, and will study further details.
Ministry of Commerce: U.S. to suspend, for one year, its Sec.301 measures on China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding. China reciprocates with suspension of its countermeasures for one year.

South Korea discloses U.S. investment details: $200B in installments, $150B pumped into shipbuilding. Korea accepts $200B cash paid in installments, with many protection terms to reduce forex shock. $20B annual cap is key; remaining $150B for shipbuilding partnership, including guarantees, Korean firm investment, ship financing.

Bassent: May choose Fed chair candidate before Christmas; dislikes rate cut wording. Fed chair’s second round of interviews beginning soon.

Fed Vice Chair for supervision Bowman announces cuts 30% of regulatory staff. Bowman plans to restructure the department, reducing staff mainly via attrition, retirement and voluntary departures. S&R department will shrink to about 350 staff (down from near 500), target completion by end-2026.

ECB holds steady for third time, keeps deposit rate at 2%, with economic resilience resisting trade headwinds; Lagarde: core inflation matches 2% goal, inflation outlook more uncertain.

ECB keeps policy rate at 2% for third time, sees inflation at target, not rushing to change stance. Eurozone economy beats forecasts, shows resilience; geopolitics and U.S. tariffs risks linger. Market expects ECB may cut rates again next year, euro falls short-term, German bonds fall further.
President Lagarde says services/AI drive growth, manufacturing drags due to trade. Future policy data-dependent, no preset rate path. Digital euro project enters new phase. Inflation outlook highly uncertain, watch wages, trade, geopolitics.

Eurozone Q3 GDP up 0.2% QoQ beating expectations, France fastest growth in nearly three years, Germany stalls. France Q3 GDP up 0.5% QoQ, fastest since 2023; Germany flat, avoiding technical recession but stuck in low- or zero-growth for 14 quarters.

BOJ holds rates, two members again vote to hike. BOJ stays on hold for sixth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Two committee members again push for 0.75% hike. First policy meeting under new PM Sanae Takichi. Forecast: FY growth up to 0.7%, core inflation steady at 2.7%. Survey: ~50% expect a rate hike in December, but political uncertainty could delay.

Services drove Apple's record quarterly revenue, China sales unexpectedly fell, iPhone off-season weak, double-digit growth expected this quarter. Services revenue hit record for 3rd year straight, Q3 YoY growth accelerated to 15%; iPhone sales up >6% in Q3, growth slowed by half from previous quarter, Greater China sales down 3.6% vs analyst expectation of >9% rise, tariffs added $1.1B cost, up 40% from last quarter. CEO Cook: Q4 will be Apple's best, expected revenue up 10%-12%, China will return to growth. iPhone 17 reaction “better than expected.” Record forecast for at least 4 years. CFO: Q4 iPhone sales to rise 10%-12%. Apple fell then surged after hours, rising over 5% at one point.

AWS posts fastest growth in three years, capital expenditure beats, Amazon up 14% after hours. Amazon Q3 beat estimates, Thanks to AWS accelerating to 20% growth, biggest jump in 3 years, shares surged 14% after hours. Heavily investing in AI infrastructure, projected 2025 capex about $125B, above forecast $118.76B, capex to increase further in 2026. $1.1B “Rainier Plan” strengthens ties with Anthropic, self-developed AI chips in short supply.

Tesla’s $1T pay plan for Musk faces major shareholder opposition. The largest U.S. public pension—CalPERS—plans to vote against Musk’s $1T Tesla pay plan, posing an obstacle for Tesla’s attempt to grant Musk one of the biggest executive pay packages in history. Musk is pushing the plan, hoping for approval at the Nov 6 Austin annual meeting.

Tech giants’ capex booms this year: Google sprinting to $93B, Meta raised to $72B, Microsoft burned $34.9B in one quarter. Capital spending surge is a common theme. Google and Meta raised 2025 guidance, previewed further “significant” increase for 2026. Google raised to $91–93B, Meta to $70–72B. Microsoft ended the quarter with a record $34.9B, well above the $30B expected.

AI “peak” timetable: OpenAI may file IPO as soon as H2 2026, list in 2027, $1T valuation. Reuters sources say the listing plan is early-stage and could change with business/market conditions, but initial funding sought no less than $60B.

AI bubble “weathervane”: Market focuses on Oracle bonds—the “weakest link” in AI leverage. Oracle’s 5Y CDS costs near highest since Oct 2023. Market focus has shifted to massive debt needed to sustain the AI bubble. Oracle CDS trends key for judging the sustainability of the AI boom.

OpenAI and Oracle to build “Stargate” datacenter in Michigan, breaking ground in early 2026. OpenAI, Oracle and Related Digital to build a >1GW super-large data center in Saline, MI, USA. It’s part of the “Stargate” plan to add 4.5GW AI compute capacity, expected to start construction early 2026.

After Jefferies, BlackRock hit: exposed in huge lender fraud scandal. After Jefferies’ client First Brands defaulted, BlackRock exposed private credit “black box.” BlackRock-acquired lenders like HPS sued Broadband Telecom and Bridgevoice owner Brahmbhatt, claiming $500M default, all verification emails proved fake, bogus contracts go back to 2018.

$30B evaporated in a day! How the rare fintech “massacre” happened. Fiserv’s stock crashed 44% in a day, biggest drop in 40 years. Triggered by new CEO pulling guidance, but underlying cause was failed management: pricing missteps, growth overpromising, and slow response to customer needs. Lessons for investors: even the deepest digital economy firms can collapse from management errors.

Zepbound sales tripled after price cut, Eli Lilly Q3 beat, raised full-year guidance. Q3 EPS $7.02, revenue $17.6B, both ahead of estimates; raised FY2025 guidance to $63–63.5B. Strong weight-loss drug sales, Mounjaro up 109% YoY, Zepbound up 184%.

High-end optical modules drive earnings surge, Zhongji Xuchuang Q3 net profit 3.137B yuan, up 124.98% YoY. Driven by compute infrastructure investment and more sales of 800G optical modules. Note: Construction in progress surged 1766%, company says due to “more equipment and plant buildup.”

BYD Q3 revenue 195B yuan, net profit 7.82B yuan. BYD Q3 revenue down 3.05% YoY; net profit to parent down 32.6%. Construction in progress up 144.51% from start of year, showing major expansion.

Seres Q3 revenue up 15.75% YoY, net profit down 1.74%. YTD, profit grew over 30%; report credits “software-defined vehicles,” “user-defined product strategy,” richer lineup, driving higher margins.

NAURA Q3 net profit 1.92B yuan, up 14.60% YoY, domestic market keeps growing. Domestic IC equipment market keeps growing; NAURA’s YTD revenue up 32.97% to 27.301B yuan; net profit up 14.83%. R&D spending up 48% to 3.29B yuan.

Domestic Companies

“Universe Bank” ICBC published Q3: double revenue growth for 53T assets.

CCB Q3 net profit to parent 257.36B yuan, up 0.62% YoY.

ABC (biggest gainer YTD) Q3 net profit >220B yuan, acceleration in growth. Fee/commission net income up 13.34%.

BOCOM Q3 report: both revenue and net profit grow; assets and provisions increase.

SPDB Q3 report: net profit 38.8B yuan, double-digit growth again YoY.

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Q3: doing retail “precisely,” serving bigger clients. Net profit up 0.78% YoY, revenue down 3.18% YoY.

China Life YTD investment ledger: 7.3T investable assets, 368.6B booked.

CPIC Q3 net profit up 19.3%, major progress in life insurance reform, investment yield increases.

New China Life hits new highs, Q3 net profit up nearly 60% YoY.

PICC Q3 “explodes”: investment gain >80B yuan, yield 5.4%, invested assets 1.83T yuan.

CITIC Securities net profit up 80%, investment gain doubled, IB data warming up.

GF Securities Q3 revenue up 51.82% YoY, net profit up 86%, investment and brokerage drive growth.

Luxshare Q3 revenue up 31.03% YoY, net profit up 32.49%, AI & auto business new drivers. Q3 revenue 96.411B yuan, net profit to parent 4.874B yuan. AI explosion drives AI phones/servers; smart auto opens new core parts market.

Gree Electric Q3 revenue down 15% YoY, net profit down >6% YoY; cost-cut boosts margins.

Sanhua Intelligent Controls Q3 net profit up 43.81% YoY, revenue up 12.77%.

LONGi Green Energy Q3 revenue down ~10% YoY, narrowing loss by 1/3, BC module shipments >14GW.

Conch Cement Q3 revenue down 11.42%, net profit up 3.41%, cost control works.

Inspur Info Q3 revenue, net profit both dropped, AR surged 147.62%.

SF Express Q3 revenue up 8.2% YoY, net profit to parent 2.57B yuan, total volumes 4.31B parcels.

China Duty Free Q3 net profit down 28.9% YoY, proposes 2.50 yuan per 10 shares dividend.

Global Macro

AI bubble takes over! UBS warns “dotcom bubble” peak signals, but market still early.UBS warns: AI bubble setting up, but peak signal not here, market still at early stage. Dotcom signals: extreme valuations, profit momentum peaks, economic slowdown, mega-mergers. Peak was not straight-down, but “double top” (crash/rebound/crash).

Fed has reason for hawkishness, but dovishness will come in time. This Fed meeting reversed market logic: from “strong economy + rate-cut expectations” to “strong economy + rate rebound,” boosting dollar and yields, gold pressured. While rates unchanged, future jobs may weaken, tariff impacts temporary; Fed may cut rates in December to balance inflation and unemployment.

Goldman CEO warns: If U.S. growth lags, debt faces ‘reckoning’. Goldman’s CEO David Solomon: fiscal stimulus now ingrained in democracies, even more pronounced in U.S./developed economies in past five years. Still, recession odds “low” for now.

2026: U.S. economy “shot in the arm”? Construction data signals ‘data center boom’ coming. Dodge Momentum Index up 60% YoY in September, institutional projects up 75%, commercial up 53%. Building cycle >12 months, 2026 will peak—key for election year and backing Trump administration.

World Gold Council: Q3 global central banks accelerated gold buying, ETF inflows record high. July-September, central banks bought 220t gold, up 28% QoQ, Kazakhstan biggest buyer, Brazil bought for first time in 4+ years. Gold ETF inflows record $26B. WGC expects geopolitics, inflation, trade policy will keep demand strong for rest of year.

Global Companies

Nvidia’s “10-bagger journey”: $400B market cap at launch of ChatGPT, now first $5T company! Nvidia market cap at $5.03T beats all AMD/Arm/ASML/Broadcom/Intel/Lam/Qualcomm/TSMC combined; exceeds utilities, industrials, consumer staples in S&P 500; beats German/French/Italian blue-chip total.

Tianfeng Ming-Chi Kuo: Nvidia AI server power roadmap. Nvidia’s next-gen AI server power plan “Kyber” advances on two fronts, reference design covers entire data center power/infrastructure. Power architecture now as strategic as semiconductors. Nvidia broadening moat from chips to full data center, aiming to set future AI factory standards.

Google’s surprising turnaround: from AI “victim” to AI “trendsetter”. Google’s Q3 strong, ads beat, YouTube/search ads both up 15%, cloud backlog up 43% to $155B. AI drives shorts ads, Gemini ecosystem growth; management’s cautious capex view for 2026 signals full-stack AI strategy.

SK hynix “sold out”—what does it mean? Morgan Stanley: Nearing “storage supercycle,” raises DRAM price forecast. SK hynix HBM memory “sold out” seen as signal AI is ushering new supercycle. Morgan Stanley raises DRAM price forecast to +30% YoY, expects tight supply until 2026. Analysts say trend repeats 2017–2018 storage boom, SK hynix setup to dominate HBM.

Porsche EV strategy “crashed” + tariff shock, VW reports unexpected 1.3B euro Q3 loss. VW warns reaching targets depends on chip supply, signals worsening shortage.

Merck Q3 revenue beats, Capvaxive pneumonia vaccine performs strongly. Merck Q3 sales $17.28B, EPS $2.58 (beats Wall Street/prev. $1.57). Pneumonia vaccine strong, costs cut to offset Keytruda patent expiry.

Industry/Theme

1, Duty Free | Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce and three departments announced improvements for duty free policy from Nov 1, 2025. Optimizing domestic goods tax refund/waiver policy, actively supporting more domestic product sales at duty-free stores, encouraging more products reflecting Chinese culture and quality, expanding product types (now incl. phones, drones, sports gear, health foods, OTC drugs, pet food), broadening consumer choice. Also improving convenience/regulation, stores can offer online booking, pickup at entry/exit stores, enhancing experience.

Comment: Policy changes focus on boosting domestic sales, richer selection, streamlined approval/convenience, key for consumption, brand development, tourism upgrade, better sector layout. New policy promotes centralized display of domestic and “Chinese cultural” products, expected to upgrade related supply chain and enable brands to go global, fostering new consumption growth.

2, Rare Earth | Oct 30: China-U.S. economic consensus boosts market, rare earth prices surge across board. According to Baichuan Yingfu, Oct 30: praseodymium-neodymium oxide up to 540K yuan/ton (+4.35%), praseodymium-neodymium metal up 655K/ton (+3.97%), NdFeB N35 mainstream price 132.5 yuan/kg (+3.92%). Prices of praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, terbium and magnetic materials all rose, spot supply tightened, upbeat sentiment.

Comment: With positive signals from China-U.S. talks, market expects overseas rare earth procurement will recover, praseodymium-neodymium sellers’ price-hold intention has strengthened. Recent pickup in rare earth buying and restocking expectations may support prices. SMM: October downstream buying still weak, only some restocking for rigid demand, main reason for praseodymium-neodymium price decline. With overseas demand resuming, prices expected to keep recovering; tighter supply management could slow overseas supply, restocking will further support price, raising price center.

3, Gene Editing | According to China Securities Journal, Inner Mongolia University and Tongji University team succeeded in breeding world’s first cattle/sheep from haploid stem cells, creating new strategy for ruminant haploid breeding. Technology shortens traditional breeding cycles by 95%, promises major leap in animal breeding.

Comment: Gene editing acts as a “molecular scissor,” with big prospects in curing disease, food crisis and ecology. Ruminant breeding vital for global meat/dairy supply and efficiency. Traditional methods complex, slow, low embryo survival—major bottleneck. New method can target disease/production genes, potentially breed “high yield, high quality, high resistance” animals, key for national supply.

4, Autonomous Driving | Per “IT Home”: Tesla Global VP Tao Lin says Tesla Cybercab robotaxi to debut at Nov 5 China Import Expo—first APAC show. Released Oct 2024; first built-for-autonomous model; scheduled for production in 2026. Musk says Cybercab will cost under $30K (213K yuan).

Comment: 2020–2030 is “golden decade” for autonomous driving, policy will drive rapid global growth; by 2030, 50% of Chinese cars expected to be driverless; globally, L4/L5 fleet to hit 80M units. By 2026, robotaxi will scale up; by 2030, costs lower than manual ride-hailing, market scale near 500B yuan.

5, Semiconductor | Oct 30, CSRC approved Moore Threads Intelligent Tech (Beijing) for IPO, aiming to raise 8B yuan for Sci-Tech board. Moore Threads released four GPU architectures (SuDi, Chunxiao, Quyuan, Pinghu) between 2021–2024 based on its self-developed MUSA arch, offering mega-cluster compute solutions for government, enterprise and consumer clients.

Comment: Research institutions see company sticking to advanced process and domestic tech path, advanced design feeding back into supply chain progress. Domestic advanced process keeps improving, AI chips set to shift to domestic foundries, packaging/testing now fully local, leading-edge companies likely to see broad domestic growth in AI era.

Today’s News Preview

China October official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, composite PMIs.

Japan October Tokyo CPI.

Eurozone October CPI.

APEC Leaders Informal Meeting held Oct 31–Nov 1 in Korea.

Dallas Fed President Logan, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Harker to speak.

ExxonMobil, Chevron to release earnings.

Risk DisclaimerThe market has risks; investments must be cautious. This article does not constitute personalized investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ investment goals, financial status, or needs. Please consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit your specific situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```