Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | October 5, 2026

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The G7 has decided to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves , an immediate action to be taken over four months, with a large-scale release of diesel oil in the first 20 days . Trump stated that he would not implement a diesel export ban .

The Middle East conflict is on the verge of escalation: reports on Friday indicated that Saudi Arabia was considering a major counterattack against the Houthi rebels , with US intelligence support; the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have attacked and hit Saudi Aramco oil company targets on Saturday ; and the Yemeni government announced on Sunday the launch of a large-scale military operation to retake areas recently controlled by the Houthis .

Trump stated that the war with Iran would "end soon," that the next steps in Iran were "progressing well," and that "the situation in Iran is not good." The Iranian parliament speaker stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened until certain conditions were met . Iran responded again to the US proposal , stating that the current focus is on the Strait issue and that it is willing to promote dialogue between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia . The Iranian foreign minister stated that if the enemy resorts to military action again, it will face a "more devastating" response.

OPEC+ decided to hold rates steady at its Sunday meeting: November production quotas will remain unchanged. Reports indicate that the US-Iran conflict has disrupted OPEC+'s production expansion plans, with capacity reviews postponed until mid-November .

The US added 29,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September , far below Wall Street's expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. Institutions are hailing the September non-farm payrolls as "killing" expectations for an October rate hike , with the market now predicting a 20% probability of a rate hike . A "new Fed mouthpiece" argues that the jobs report did not change the Fed's stance , and the September CPI is more important . White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the non-farm payrolls report was "in line with expectations," that the Holmos Institute has reopened, and that Trump is taking the deficit issue seriously.

Trump announced the formation of the "Super Intelligence Task Force" and confirmed Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as the "AI Czar" ; reports indicate that the task force plans to produce an AI regulatory plan within 120 days.

Bessant refuted concerns about an AI bubble , arguing that the industry should propose practical solutions rather than spreading alarmist rumors, and stated that rising US Treasury yields are a global phenomenon .

South America's "most important election" kicks off on Sunday : Brazil's election will determine its "left-right" path, Lula's team accuses US interference, and Wall Street bets on right-wing Bolsonaro.

Masayoshi Son, a staunch supporter of AI, has suddenly warned that superintelligence could be "extremely dangerous" and called on countries to strengthen cooperation to address the risks.

Japanese media reports that Toshiba plans to spend 60 billion yen to expand HDD production , aiming to double its capacity; Seagate Technology shares fell 10%.

Tesla's global deliveries fell 2% year-on-year in the third quarter , but still exceeded Wall Street's expectations by more than 20,000 vehicles . New car registrations in Europe increased by 53% year-on-year in August, and Model 3 sales in Canada climbed.

Market Overview

Unexpectedly weak US non-farm payroll data dampened expectations of an October rate hike, while tech stocks rallied, propelling US stocks higher. The Nasdaq Composite rose for the third consecutive day, hitting a new intraday high and closing up over 1%, marking its third consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the second consecutive day, but both fell for the week. The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record high. Nvidia hit its first intraday high in over four months, closing up over 1%. Broadcom rose over 3%. Tesla rose nearly 5% on delivery data. Nike fell 3.6% after earnings. News of Toshiba's capacity expansion impacted memory chip stocks , with Seagate and Western Digital falling 10% .

US Treasury yields experienced a V-shaped recovery . Following the US jobs report, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a daily low, before selling resumed and the yield rebounded by more than 10 basis points from its daily low . The Franco-German 10-year yield spread widened to its largest level since 2012.

Following the US jobs report, the dollar index accelerated its decline from a one-and-a-half-year high, while the offshore yuan approached 6.70.

The G7's plan to release oil reserves severely impacted crude oil prices , with US crude falling more than 5% intraday. Following the US non-farm payrolls report, gold briefly rose more than 1% before reversing course and falling. Gold and silver prices fell sharply for the week , with gold futures down 3.6%, marking their biggest weekly drop in four months, and silver futures down nearly 7%.

US and European stock markets : The S&P 500 closed up 0.73% at 7722.72 points, down 0.27% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.49% at 51176.96 points, down 1.26% for the week; and the Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.19% at 27190.864 points, up 0.45% for the week. The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.75% at 631.35 points, down 1.14% for the week.

A-shares : Market closed.

Hong Kong stocks : The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.6% at 23,972.29 points, marking its biggest drop since March 23.

Bond Market : By the close of trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was around 5.27%, up about 3 basis points during the day and up about 11 basis points for the week; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note was around 4.82%, up about 3 basis points during the day and down about 3 basis points for the week.

Commodities : WTI November crude oil futures closed down 1.90% at $91.11 per barrel, a weekly decline of 1.41%. Brent December crude oil futures closed down 0.06% at $102.25 per barrel, a weekly gain of 4.94%. COMEX October gold futures closed down 0.94% at $4133.7 per ounce, a weekly decline of 3.59%. COMEX October silver futures closed down 1.23% at $59.977 per ounce, a weekly decline of 6.68%. COMEX October copper futures closed up 0.15% at $6.492 per pound, a weekly decline of 3.1%.

News Details

China

CCTV's Yu Yuan Tan Tian: What will the China-US AI dialogue discuss in November ? The November dialogue will focus on three core issues: First, jointly developing AI risk classification and grading standards to clarify the definition of "major risk"; second, establishing a reporting mechanism for risk events such as model malfunctions, clarifying the reporting scope, time limits, and constraints; and third, incorporating AI governance into a broader multilateral framework to expand international participation. California may be the first to break the deadlock, promoting mutual trust and the implementation of institutional frameworks.

The Hang Seng Index fell below 24,000 points, marking its biggest drop in three months. Physics and AI stocks plummeted nearly 50%, and heavyweight tech stocks collectively declined, with Seres Technology surging as much as 15% intraday . On the sector front, financials and pharmaceuticals declined, with AIA and BeiGene leading the blue chips down nearly 6%. Tianshu Zhixin fell nearly 7%. Automotive and technology stocks were weak, with Li Auto, Bilibili, Xiaomi, NetEase, and XPeng leading the decline. Consumer and optical module stocks were relatively strong, with ASMPT rising over 8%.

Chinese pharmaceutical business development has achieved another milestone! Abogen Biosciences has reached a $7.8 billion mRNA licensing agreement with Novartis . Novartis secured Abogen's core asset, ABO2203, with an upfront payment of $575 million and obtained options for other projects on its RNA technology platform. ABO2203 features a novel mechanism—encoding a T-cell connector through mRNA to fundamentally reset the immune system rather than merely suppress symptoms, targeting autoimmune diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. This move signifies that Chinese mRNA technology has gained top international recognition and reflects the surge of multinational giants acquiring innovative Chinese drugs.

overseas

Non-farm payrolls fell sharply short of expectations! The US added 29,000 jobs in September, below the expected 90,000, causing US Treasury yields to decline and US stock futures to rise . The September non-farm payroll report showed that the combined number of jobs added in July and August was revised down by 60,000; the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% in September from 4.1% in August. Economists attributed the unusually weak performance to distorted seasonal adjustments rather than a substantial shift in the labor market.

Institutions are clamoring that the September non-farm payrolls report has "killed" expectations of a October rate hike! The "New Fed Watcher" states that the jobs report did not change the Fed's stance; the September CPI is more important . The "New Fed Watcher" reports that Fed officials have hinted this week that an October rate hike may not be their base case, as the report's wage and unemployment figures do not indicate that the labor market is tightening again to a degree that would significantly increase price pressure. Traders' pricing of an October rate hike has fallen from nearly 30% before the data release to about 20%, and at one point they even stopped fully pricing in a rate hike this year. Institutions believe that the labor market's performance of "low hiring, low layoffs" provides the Fed with a reason to wait for more data; a December rate hike is still possible. Market reaction shows that "bad news is good news," with Wall Street still focused on the 5% Treasury yield.
White House economic advisor Hassett: Non-farm payroll report "meets expectations," Hormuz is open, Trump is serious about deficit reduction. Hassett said he was "not disappointed" with the September non-farm payroll report, noting a decline in government employment while other sectors saw increases. He also stated that current interest rates are "unacceptably high," and that Trump is "serious about reducing the deficit" and does not want to get rid of debt through inflation.

The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, starting with a large-scale release of diesel over the first 20 days, causing US crude oil prices to fall by more than 5% at one point . G7 leaders stated on Friday that the G7 will coordinate the release of 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves through the IEA, an action that will last four months; they pledged to avoid restricting energy exports among member states and called on other oil-producing countries to avoid bans that could exacerbate market tensions; they will continue discussions through the IEA in the coming days regarding whether to further increase the scale of diesel reserve releases if necessary. Trump stated on Saturday that the US would not impose a diesel export ban .

Macron calls for coordinated G7 action to avoid export restrictions and jointly curb rising fuel prices. Reportedly, during a call between EU member state governments on Friday, a proposal put forward by France was discussed: European countries would release 50 million barrels of diesel oil, while International Energy Agency members would release 50 million barrels of crude oil.

International crude oil prices hovered around $100 per barrel, with OPEC+ remaining on hold: November production quotas will remain unchanged . While OPEC+ decided to hold off on production, international crude oil futures are hovering around the $100 per barrel mark, and diesel retail prices have also hit record highs. The G7 has announced the release of emergency strategic reserves to address market pressures. The market will now focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 29th, where next year's oil production policy will likely be further determined based on capacity audits and regional developments.

Report: The US-Iran conflict has disrupted OPEC+'s production expansion schedule, with capacity reviews delayed until mid-November . According to reports, OPEC+'s capacity review process has been delayed. The original deadline for completion was the end of September 2026, but theoretically, OPEC+ is still allowed to discuss the results at its plenary meeting in late November. The results of independent capacity assessments will directly determine the approved production caps for each member country, and some member countries have already shown significant disagreement on quota issues, putting pressure on the stability of the alliance.

Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is considering deploying 100,000 Yemeni troops to attack the Houthi rebels, aiming directly at the Red Sea chokepoint, with US intelligence support . The report states that Saudi Arabia is considering two operational plans: one is a concentrated attack on the coastal areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the other is a larger-scale offensive launched simultaneously on multiple fronts in Yemen. The objective is to recapture the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and its surrounding areas, which the Houthis have recently seized control of. While the US is not directly involved, it has provided Saudi Arabia with intelligence support, including target information.

The Middle East conflict may be escalating! Black smoke suddenly billowed from a Saudi refinery, reportedly signaling a major counterattack against the Houthi rebels . The Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement Saturday night saying that in response to Saudi airstrikes on Yemen, they used multiple ballistic missiles and drones to attack targets at the Saudi Aramco oil company in Riyadh, claiming the operation "successfully achieved its objectives," "hitting the target and causing a fire."
The Yemeni government announced on Sunday the launch of a large-scale military operation to retake areas recently controlled by the Houthi rebels .

Trump said on Friday that the war with Iran would be "over soon," echoing dozens of previous statements . He also said the next steps regarding Iran were "going very well." According to US media, key cabinet members held a closed-door meeting for several hours on Friday at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, to discuss the war with Iran and the next steps in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. When asked by the media about the next steps for the US against Iran, Trump responded that the next steps were "going very well" and that "the situation in Iran is not good."

Trump announced the establishment of the "Super Intelligence Force" and appointed Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as the "AI Czar." Trump stated that the "Super Intelligence Force" (SIF) will coordinate the U.S. federal government's work in the field of superintelligence. The task force will be jointly led by Jay Clayton, FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson, Defense Chief Technology Officer Emil Michael, and Director of the Office of Personnel Management Scott Kupor, and will report to Trump and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

The "AI Tsar" has been chosen! Reports indicate that the White House has established a "Super Intelligence" task force, planning to develop an AI regulatory plan within 120 days .
Trump is reportedly set to appoint a new "AI czar": the Director of National Intelligence will take over from the Silicon Valley mogul, and the focus of AI policy will shift to security control .
Last week's White House AI summit "power map": Zuckerberg is most recognized by Trump, Musk deliberately distances himself, and Amodei's anxiety is hard to hide .
US Treasury Secretary Bessen addressed concerns on Saturday , stating that rising US Treasury yields are a global phenomenon and dismissing AI bubble fears . He criticized warnings from prominent figures in the AI field about the significant risks posed by AI technology, calling them alarmist and unhelpful, and urging the industry to strengthen self-regulation and develop practical solutions. Bessen also attributed inflationary pressures in part to rising oil prices due to the conflict with Iran, predicting the energy shock will subside as the conflict ends.

South America's most important election kicks off on Sunday: Brazil's general election will determine its "left-right" path. Lula's team accuses US interference, while Wall Street bets on right-wing Bolsonaro . Incumbent President Lula and right-wing challenger Bolsonaro are neck and neck, with the first round of voting likely to lead to a runoff on October 25. The market forecasts give Bolsonaro approximately a 60% chance of winning. A victory would significantly boost momentum for fiscal reforms. Wall Street investment banks are betting on a stronger Brazilian real in options trading, aiming to capitalize on potential post-election appreciation.

Masayoshi Son, a staunch supporter of AI, has issued a rare warning: superintelligence could be "extremely dangerous." The founder of SoftBank, a long-time believer in AI, has warned that with the exponential growth of AI capabilities, superintelligence could be "extremely dangerous" if it falls into the wrong hands, and that countries must strengthen cooperation to address the risks. He predicts that the next phase of AI development will begin next year, with AI programs moving beyond browsing the web and writing code to the physical world, assisting robots and other devices in their actions.

US stocks are going to trade overnight! Starting in December, they will enter the era of 23-hour trading .

Report: Broadcom, in partnership with Blackstone, is raising $60 billion to pave the way for computing power for AI companies like Anthropic . Broadcom is leading a $60 billion debt financing round to support AI companies like Anthropic in purchasing chips and building data centers. Of this, $42 billion in senior secured bonds will be distributed by a syndicate of Wall Street banks organized by Broadcom, while $18 billion in subordinated debt will be led by Blackstone, with its funds committing $9 billion. The deal has been in the works for several weeks but has not yet been officially announced.

Japanese media reports that Toshiba plans to invest 60 billion yen to expand HDD production, potentially doubling its capacity. Seagate Technology shares fell over 10% in pre-market trading . Toshiba's expansion, coupled with Western Digital's increased investment, may gradually ease the tight supply situation in the HDD industry. Although demand from AI data centers continues to grow, and Seagate's 2026 capacity is already sold out, the increased supply may weaken manufacturers' bargaining power. The market is beginning to focus on the supply-demand rebalancing and Seagate's market share and profit prospects.

The real risk of Toshiba's capacity expansion: Is the "supply discipline" for HDDs coming to an end?

Tesla's stock price surged! Third-quarter global deliveries exceeded expectations, with a 53% year-on-year increase in Europe in August and rising Model 3 sales in Canada . Tesla delivered 487,000 vehicles in the third quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations by over 20,000. Tesla's new car registrations in the EU increased by approximately 53% year-on-year in August, and by 66% cumulatively in the first eight months of the year, driven by soaring oil prices boosting European electric vehicle demand. The Securities Times reported in January that Canada, within its quota system, granted Chinese electric vehicles a 6.1% tariff, waiving the 100% additional tax. Media reports later indicated that Model 3 sales in Canada were climbing.

NVIDIA has launched a 64GB version of the DGX Spark, targeting local demand, with memory usage halved, starting at $4,999. The 128GB version is priced at $6,950 . The new DGX Spark can run models with up to 100 billion parameters locally, retaining the GB10 Blackwell chip, DGX OS, the complete NVIDIA AI software stack, and ConnectX-7 networking capabilities. Tests show that two 64GB units can be combined to create a 128GB version, resulting in a performance increase of up to 70%. NVIDIA attributes the price increase of the 128GB Founders Edition to limited memory supply and rising costs.

Samsung is pricing its HBM4 at three times that of the HBM3E, betting on reshaping pricing power in the AI computing arms race . According to South Korean media, Samsung Electronics has set its supply price for the HBM4 next year at a mid-to-high range of $4 per gigabit (Gb), more than three times the price of its current flagship product, the HBM3E, which is approximately $1.50 per Gb.

Selected Views

Bank of America: "AI trading" is the "last line of defense" in the current US Treasury market . Bank of America warns that the AI narrative is acting as a "buffer" for macroeconomic risks, suppressing market volatility. The FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment brought about by AI creates an "AI put option" effect, making the stock market almost indifferent to sharp fluctuations in the bond market. Bank of America worries that if the AI narrative falters, downward revisions to growth expectations could cause the bond market crisis to evolve into a market-wide crisis, amplifying all suppressed macroeconomic risks simultaneously.

Bank of America's Hartnett points out that in the six months leading up to the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble, only the technology and communications sectors were rising, a situation strikingly similar to the current one . Hartnett warns that the current market exhibits an extreme divergence similar to that before the bursting of the 2000 dot-com bubble, with AI and technology stocks leading the gains while market breadth continues to deteriorate, increasing the risk of a bubble in AI capital expenditure. He also believes that US Treasuries have been severely neglected by the market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.33%, a new high since 2002, presenting a buying opportunity and advising investors to start "buying the shame."

AI bond issuance suddenly hit the brakes in September, but Morgan Stanley predicts a rebound in the fourth quarter . Morgan Stanley characterizes the slowdown in bond issuance as a "pause rather than a retreat," believing the September cooling was not due to deteriorating fundamentals or capital shortages, but rather a combination of factors: significantly earlier issuances, regulatory and political obstacles to data center construction, and soaring interest rates forcing renegotiation of project-level terms. They expect bond issuance in the fourth quarter will not see the explosive growth of the first half of the year.

Today's Focus

China

The A-share market will remain closed for the National Day holiday.

overseas

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been announced.

US September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

The CME Group will launch GPU computing power futures on October 5, tracking the rental costs of H100 and B200.

Intel's PC CPUs are expected to see another price increase of approximately 10% on October 5th.

The first round of voting in Brazil's presidential election continues.

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