Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | October 9, 2026
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October started poorly, with the STAR Market 50 index falling nearly 5%. Concerns about new US regulations and rumors of price cuts severely impacted the A-share optical chip sector , with Changxin falling over 7%. Shipping, oil and gas, and banking sectors bucked the trend and strengthened, with ICBC and BOC hitting new highs.
The People's Bank of China stated that there is no preset target for the RMB exchange rate , and the focus will be on preventing short-term destructive overshooting .
US media reports that the US military has developed a "pre-election strike plan" ; Trump later stated that he would not attack Iran before the election and that "productive consultations" are underway, causing crude oil prices to give back half of their gains while gold prices rebounded . Iran's foreign minister stated that indirect negotiations with the US are continuing through mediators . Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked Saudi Arabian airport for three consecutive days. Iranian media reports that several violent explosions occurred in the southern Strait of Hormuz due to an oil tanker's "illegal" navigation triggering a landmine.
A US visa storm is brewing: H-1B visa applications for green cards have been suspended for several tech companies, including Microsoft , and nine prestigious universities, including Harvard , are under investigation for J-1 visa fraud .
According to financial document analysis, Trump's securities transactions in August may have reached as high as $2.73 trillion, including up to $25 million in Meta shares and SpaceX notes before signing the space policy .
Firmus, a data center company backed by Nvidia, has shelved its Australian IPO plans and opted for private equity financing, after media reports indicated that the IPO was met with a lukewarm reception and the offering price was cut by 25% .
Nvidia plans to invest $1 billion over five years to advance “super intelligence” research in the United States , focusing on quantum computing, healthcare, and energy security.
Report: To address power supply bottlenecks, Oracle is delivering natural gas to its AI data centers via trucks .
Report: Apple will release its first touchscreen MacBook and a new iPad mini at the end of October .
Butterfly Effect, the parent company of Manus, has completed a financing round of over $500 million , setting a record for the largest single financing round for a domestic agent-native startup. Tencent and Sequoia China also participated in the investment.
Samsung released preliminary results, with Q3 operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won for the first time, a nearly ninefold increase year-on-year , demonstrating a strong recovery momentum in its semiconductor business. However, due to rising memory prices, Samsung mobile phone production is reportedly reduced by as much as 30% in Q4 , with some products resulting in losses on every unit sold.
Market Overview
Tech stocks dragged down US stocks , with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling for the second consecutive day. The Nasdaq fell more than 1% , marking its biggest drop in over seven weeks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a narrow rebound. News of disappointing OpenAI revenue severely impacted AI trading , with chip stocks Intel falling more than 5%, Broadcom falling more than 4%, Nvidia falling nearly 3%, Oracle falling more than 5%, and CoreWeave falling nearly 8%. Among optical communication stocks, Coherent fell nearly 10% and Applied Optoelectronics fell nearly 14%. Oracle's battery supplier Bloom Energy fell more than 6%.
US Treasury bonds turned positive during the session after Trump said he would not attack Iran before the midterm elections , causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall more rapidly and no longer approach its highest level since 2002; the dollar index turned negative.
Cryptocurrencies continued their downward trend, with Bitcoin falling below $81,000 to a near three-week low, down nearly 4% from its daily high.
Oil prices surged, rising over 5% intraday , as Middle East risks compounded by the impact of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on oil production . However , after Trump stated he would not attack Iran before the midterm elections , oil prices initially pared half of their gains ; gold quickly reversed course , recovering from a two-month low.
US and European stock markets : The S&P 500 closed down 0.47% at 7765.36 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.10% at 51231.64 points; and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.25% at 27193.34 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.75% at 625.51 points.
A-shares : The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.79% at 3811.90 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 2.07% at 12620.90 points. The ChiNext Index closed down 3.15% at 3036.66 points. The STAR Market 50 Index fell nearly 5%, with optical chip stocks suffering heavy losses, and Changxin Technology falling more than 7%; oil and gas, shipping, and banking stocks bucked the trend and rose.
Bond Market : By the close of trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was around 5.23%, down about 5 basis points for the day; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note was around 4.76%, down about 1 basis point for the day.
Commodities : WTI November crude oil futures rose 3.64% to settle at $91.49 per barrel. Brent December crude oil futures rose 4.07% to settle at $104.28 per barrel. COMEX October gold futures rose 0.44% to settle at $4,131.8 per ounce. COMEX October silver futures fell 1.39% to settle at $59.064 per ounce. COMEX October copper futures fell 1.17% to settle at $6.5179 per pound.
News Details
China
The STAR Market 50 Index fell nearly 5%, with optical chip stocks plummeting and Changxin Securities dropping over 7%. ICBC and Bank of China hit new highs, while the Hang Seng Index fell over 2%, and tech stocks were collectively weak . Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks, with nearly 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges closing lower. Today's turnover was 1.69 trillion yuan. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 1.68 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 250 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, optical chips, GPUs, CROs, automobiles, and media led the decline. Shipping, oil and gas, petrochemicals, banking, coal, electricity, and steel sectors collectively strengthened.
- October started poorly, with the optical chip sector experiencing a collective plunge. What happened? The sell-off was driven by two negative news items that continued to circulate during the National Day holiday: first, market concerns about potential new regulations from the US FCC targeting Chinese optical modules; and second, market rumors of price reductions for 1.6T optical chips. However, industry insiders bluntly stated that "the panic outweighs the substance": potential restrictions will not affect mainstream products, and high-end production capacity remains scarce. Amid the plunge, caution is advised against a misjudgment based on sentiment.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) stated that it does not have a pre-set target for the RMB exchange rate, but focuses on preventing short-term destructive overshooting . The PBOC clarified its RMB exchange rate policy stance: China implements a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referencing a basket of currencies, adhering to the principle of allowing the market to play a decisive role in exchange rate formation. China has neither the need nor the intention to gain a competitive trade advantage through currency devaluation and never engages in competitive currency devaluation. There is no simple linear relationship between the exchange rate and the current account, and international methods for assessing exchange rate equilibrium levels are still immature.
CICC Research interprets National Day holiday data: Consumption remained stable with marginal improvement, with "extended holiday travel" and "county-level travel" booming . Commercial district sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year during the National Day holiday, outperforming the Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival. The "take 3 days off, get 13 days off" extended travel windows, leading to a surge in long-distance, inter-provincial, and inbound tourism. Orders for western destinations surged, and "county-level travel" and "concert-themed travel" became new trends. However, the National Day box office suffered a major setback—only 1.05 billion yuan in the first six days, a sharp drop of 31.6% year-on-year. The absence of major commercial films made entertainment consumption a significant weakness in the holiday economy.
Guolian Minsheng Macroeconomics: This year's National Day holiday consumption showed a structural differentiation of "five-star tourism, four-star travel, and three-star entertainment." Scenic spot ticket bookings increased by nearly 30%, and key commercial district revenue increased by 5.3%, but box office revenue plummeted by 38.1% year-on-year; total visitor flow increased by only 0.8%, and per capita consumption elasticity remains insufficient. The early Mid-Autumn Festival diversion coupled with an extended holiday limited the potential for increased consumption. Policy has shifted from short-term stimulus to institutional arrangements such as income distribution and consumption tax, but the core contradiction of "high visitor numbers but low per capita spending" remains to be resolved.
Butterfly Effect, the parent company of Manus, has completed a funding round of over $500 million, with Tencent and Sequoia China participating . Butterfly Effect sets a record for the largest single funding round for a domestic agent-native startup, raising its valuation to $4 billion. The company recently launched Manus 2.0 and the Cue app.
overseas
The Middle East conflict escalates again: Saudi airports attacked, oil tankers hit in the Persian Gulf, Trump reportedly plans further action against Iran, and crude oil prices rise . Houthi rebels launched attacks on two major Saudi airports. Saudi Arabia confirmed that King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha International Airport in the southwest were attacked Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in 3 deaths and 36 injuries. The UKMTO, the Royal Navy's agency, confirmed on Wednesday that an oil tanker was hit by a projectile in waters north of Al-Shahmal in Madinat, Qatar. This is the first attack on an oil tanker deep in the Persian Gulf in about a month.
- Less than two days after Trump stated that the military action against Iran "must be concluded," US media revealed that the US military had formulated a "pre-election strike plan." Trump stated that the action "must be concluded," but was uncertain whether it would be done in a "soft or hard" manner. More importantly, to boost his election prospects, the White House is planning a "limited strike" against Iran before the election, which contradicts the mainstream market assessment of the Trump administration's "pre-election restraint." Following the news, oil prices rose.
- The Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for another attack on Riyadh's airport on Thursday . The group also warned those involved to stay away from Saudi oil facilities they identified as "targets."
- Trump Denies Rumors: He stated he would not attack Iran before the election and that "productive consultations" are underway; the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that indirect negotiations are continuing through mediators . Trump's news pushed down US Treasury yields, crude oil gave back some of its gains, and gold quickly rebounded. The US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, affecting 17 oil tankers. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that Iran had listened to the US response to the "seven-day plan" and would reply within a few days. The commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran is ready to launch a devastating counterattack against any enemy, and that the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic red line for Iran.
- On Wednesday, after Iranian officials said they would soon close the "illegal shipping lanes" in the Strait of Hormuz , Iranian media reported on Thursday that several violent explosions occurred that evening in the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz , caused by "illegal oil tankers" traveling along the route striking mines.
- As the hurricane approaches the Gulf of Mexico, a quarter of crude oil production has been shut down, contributing to a surge in oil prices . Approximately 512,000 barrels per day of oil production facilities and 16% of natural gas production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico have been shut down. Shell, Chevron, and other oil companies have evacuated non-essential personnel. It is estimated that about 2.7 million barrels per day, or 14% of U.S. refining capacity, is located within or near the hurricane's predicted path. Currently, with high crude oil and refined product prices, U.S. refineries are operating at full capacity to make up for the shortfall. Mizuho warned that if U.S. refining capacity is forced to withdraw from the market, the consequences "would be catastrophic."
A visa storm is brewing in the US: H-1B visa applications for green cards from Microsoft and several other tech companies have been blocked, and nine prestigious universities, including Harvard, are under investigation for J-1 visa fraud . The Trump administration on Thursday froze some green card applications from Microsoft, Adobe, and major IT outsourcing companies. Vice President Vance announced an indefinite suspension of these companies' eligibility to participate in the PERM program, accusing them of fraud in green card applications for foreign employees, and stating that the suspension against Microsoft would last "for as long as necessary." Vance stated that the government supports technology companies investing and developing in the US, but these companies must hire more American workers.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that rate hikes do not require consecutive meetings, and the dot plot reflects a rate hike followed by a rate cut in early 2027. Waller also noted that investment in AI infrastructure and the energy shock are making inflationary pressures more persistent, while the US economy is strengthening in the second half of the year.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time last week fell to 197,000, near a 57-year low for the fourth consecutive week . Non-farm payrolls for September, released last Friday, increased by only 29,000, indicating a significant slowdown in hiring. The rise in continuing jobless claims and the lengthening of unemployment suggest that pressure to find new employment is building.
Germany has significantly raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.3%, with a manufacturing recovery being a key support . A rebound in exports, a stabilization in manufacturing, and government infrastructure and defense spending are the main drivers of GDP growth. However, domestic demand remains weak, economic growth is heavily reliant on external demand and fiscal stimulus, and slow structural reforms, along with geopolitical and energy price risks, remain major challenges to the recovery.
A $20 billion discrepancy! OpenAI's revenue figures reveal a huge gap between expectations and reality, severely impacting the AI sector. Oracle fell over 5%, and Applied Optoelectronics plummeted over 10% . OpenAI's latest investor filings show annualized revenue "close to $50 billion" as of the end of September, far below the previously circulated $70 billion expectation. The discrepancy stems from different statistical methods, but it still shakes market confidence in the strong demand for AI. Chip stocks Nvidia fell about 3%, Broadcom fell over 4%, Intel fell over 5%, cloud services stock CoreWeave fell nearly 8%, and optical communications stock Coherent fell about 10%.
Did Trump's securities transactions amount to hundreds of millions of dollars in August? He purchased up to $25 million worth of Meta stock and bought SpaceX notes before signing the space policy . According to media analysis of Trump's August financial disclosures, he made 517 securities transactions in August, totaling approximately $74.3 million to $273.3 million, with the largest single purchase being $25 million worth of Meta stock. More notably, he purchased between $1 million and $5 million worth of SpaceX senior unsecured notes two days before signing the commercial space policy.
- Previously, media reports indicated that Firmus' IPO was met with a lukewarm reception , failing to attract sufficient subscriptions at its target price of A$11 per share, and the issue price had been reduced to a minimum of A$8, a 25% discount from the original price.
Nvidia plans to invest $1 billion over five years to advance "superintelligence" research in the United States, focusing on quantum computing, healthcare, and energy security . This investment will be implemented through three pathways: supporting US universities in acquiring computing infrastructure; increasing investment in the US quantum computing field; and supporting cloud service providers serving the needs of the US government. Jensen Huang stated that this investment will put superintelligence capabilities into the hands of US scientists, "This is the path for the US to transform scientific leadership into industrial leadership and innovation into job opportunities."
Report: To address power supply bottlenecks, Oracle is using trucks to deliver natural gas to its AI data centers as a temporary power supply solution. Oracle has reportedly been using trucks to deliver natural gas to maintain operations at a data center near Salt Lake City for over a year, and is employing the same method at its OpenAI campus in Texas. The company is also considering replicating this approach at Project Jupiter in New Mexico.
Reports indicate that Apple will release its first touchscreen MacBook and a new iPad mini at the end of October . Apple also reportedly plans to release a 14-inch MacBook Pro and iMac powered by the M6 chip around October 27th. The touchscreen MacBook Pro is expected to feature an OLED screen and introduce the HomePod island design. Next week, Apple also plans to launch a smart home hub, a new HomePod mini, and an upgraded Apple TV, continuing to expand its hardware product portfolio and ecosystem.
Samsung released preliminary results: Q3 operating profit surpassed 100 trillion won for the first time, a nearly ninefold increase year-on-year . Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit was approximately 107.4 trillion won, a nearly ninefold increase year-on-year, marking a record high for the fourth consecutive quarter. Third-quarter revenue was approximately 195 trillion won, a 127% year-on-year increase. The full financial report will be released on October 29th.
- Citigroup: Samsung's Q3 operating profit exceeded expectations, with a strong recovery momentum in its semiconductor business . With HBM4 production ramping up and ASP increasing significantly, Citigroup is optimistic about Samsung's earnings growth potential in 2027 and maintains its buy rating.
- Samsung is losing money on every phone sold! Memory prices have soared to the point where even Samsung can't withstand the pressure, and reports indicate that smartphone production will be reduced by as much as 30% in Q4 . The combination of soaring memory costs and the traditional off-season could reduce Samsung's total annual smartphone shipments to just over 200 million units, putting pressure on the profitability of its MX division.
Selected Views
Five weeks ago, a Goldman Sachs trader strongly recommended buying AI options, but now warns of record-breaking AI congestion . AI trading has become the most crowded sector in history. Goldman Sachs trader Tuteja warns: Tech giant exposure is at an all-time high, and the logic of undervaluation has vanished. Faced with extreme concentration of funds under high interest rates, he suggests withdrawing from leading AI stocks and shifting to lagging sectors or AI-related power infrastructure. The macroeconomic landscape has changed; the bond market is the ultimate arbiter.
What does Meta Muse mean for GPUs and CPUs? Unlike chatbots with relatively low idle rates, the "always-on" nature of agents like Meta Muse causes their computational power consumption to increase exponentially. Citi predicts that this trend will cause the CPU-GPU ratio to evolve from 1:8 during training to 1:1, driving the CPU market to $300 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, just 100 million daily active users of Muse could potentially generate up to $19 billion in GPU revenue for Nvidia.
The European Council meeting on October 15-16 may discuss the EU's trade stance towards China, marking a crucial window for Sino-EU auto trade negotiations . Given that the automotive industry is the most flexible and concentrated sector in this round of negotiations, CITIC Securities research believes that these negotiations will have the most significant impact on the automotive industry, representing the most contentious long-term pricing factor for the sector.
"De-CATLization" is easier said than done. JPMorgan Chase: Narrowing the technological gap does not equate to the disappearance of competitive advantage; CATL remains the top choice . JPMorgan Chase believes the market is overly focused on the technological catch-up of second-tier battery manufacturers, while underestimating CATL's competitive advantages in scale, manufacturing quality, consumer trust, and financial resilience. It's worth noting that CATL adopts the industry's most conservative accounting policies; if adjusted to the standards of its second-tier peers, its reported net profit could increase by approximately 30%. Meanwhile, the company's market share in China's passenger vehicle battery market bucked the trend, rising to 44% in the first eight months of this year.
Le Pen's budget notably avoided pension reform, and after the Franco-German interest rate spread exceeded 150 basis points, a 200 basis point alarm was raised . High pension expenditures have become the biggest pressure on French public finances, and raising the retirement age is key to alleviating this problem. RBC BlueBay warned that if the main presidential candidates do not commit to reforms, the Franco-German 10-year bond yield spread could widen further to 200 basis points. Le Pen recently announced her fiscal plan but avoided discussing pension reform, having previously advocated lowering the retirement age for those who entered the workforce earlier to 60.
Today's Focus
China
China's M2 money supply in September, China's total social financing from January to September, and new RMB loans.
The SSE Photovoltaic Science and Technology Innovation Leading Index was officially launched.
overseas
The Nobel Peace Prize has been announced.
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October and consumer inflation expectations were released.
Boston Federal Reserve President Collins delivered a speech.
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