Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | September 2, 2026
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Chinese President attended the meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and delivered an important speech entitled "Jointly Advocating an Equal and Orderly Multipolar World to Achieve More Just and Reasonable Global Governance".
The Bishkek Declaration, issued to mark the 25th anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), reaffirmed the condemnation of military strikes against Iranian territory and advocated for resolving the conflict through political and diplomatic means.
China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to a two-month high of 51.5 in August, with new export orders growing at their fastest pace in six months, while factory gate prices declined for the first time this year.
Two Chinese government departments announced that, starting September 1st, foreign individuals will no longer be exempt from individual income tax on dividends. Three Chinese government departments also released the "Guidelines on Overseas Competition and Compliance in the Automotive Industry," aiming to regulate overseas pricing practices and strengthen compliance with vehicle-to-everything (V2X) data.
The U.S. military says it has begun striking targets belonging to the Revolutionary Guard in Iran. Trump threatened a more severe strike if Iran retaliates. The Iranian military says it has begun a counterattack and shot down a U.S. drone.
Two oil tankers were attacked while leaving the Strait of Hormuz; the US is reportedly considering escorting ships for "regular strikes" against Iran; Bessant said the strait may be "bypassed" within two years and become "worthless waters"; the Iranian parliament speaker said he would never allow the US to push for navigation on the southern route of the strait.
Bessenter's meeting with the Bank of Japan governor sent a strong signal: the US supports a stronger yen and emphasizes avoiding excessive exchange rate volatility.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index fell slightly in August, missing expectations, but remained near a four-year high. U.S. JOLTS job openings in July were below expectations for the second consecutive month.
Eurozone CPI surged to a three-year high in August, making a rate hike by the ECB next week almost a certainty. Following Warsh, another Fed official has adopted a hawkish stance: Governor Barr stated that if inflation does not sufficiently cool down, a rate hike should be implemented decisively.
August electric vehicle sales figures: Leapmotor once again surpassed 100,000 units sold, retaining its title as the top seller; XPeng and Li Auto overtook NIO; HarmonyOS Mobility turned negative year-on-year.
NIO's Q2 revenue increased by 69% year-on-year, and the gross margin rose to 18.4%. Q3 revenue guidance is 33.29 billion to 34.05 billion yuan. In the conference call, it was stated that the cost per vehicle will increase by at least 2,000 yuan in the second half of the year, but the gross margin will still be maintained. The average monthly sales volume in the fourth quarter is aimed at 40,000 vehicles.
Anthropic launches Fable 5.1: "Cache hit" cost reduced by 75%, enhancing programming and research capabilities.
Apple CEO Steve Tenus sent his first all-hands letter: Next week's iPhone launch will be "extraordinary".
Musk: AI could boost global economic growth by 20%-30%, and there will be 1 billion humanoid robots in the next decade.
Dell raised its full-year guidance significantly upwards, exceeding expectations, with Q2 revenue hitting a record high. Demand for AI servers surged, and the stock rose more than 10% in after-hours trading.
Market Overview
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran led to three consecutive days of declines in the three major US stock indexes , with the Nasdaq falling 1% . The chip index fell by more than 2%, with Nvidia down 1.5% and Micron down nearly 3%. Tesla fell by more than 3%. On the first day of its new CEO's tenure, Apple rebounded by nearly 3%. Dell, which significantly raised its full-year guidance, rose by more than 10% in after-hours trading .
Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike have intensified, with global sovereign bond yields hitting a new high since 2008 and the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching a new high in nearly 20 months .
The US dollar index rebounded, approaching a two-week high; the Japanese yen fell below 160 , dropping to a new low since the US intervention in the foreign exchange market at the end of July; the offshore yuan fell below 6.72 during the session, failing to continue approaching its three-year high; and Bitcoin fell below $78,000 during the session, down more than 3% from its daily high.
The conflict between the US and Iran drove a surge in crude oil prices, with US crude breaking through $90 for the first time in a month and rising nearly 6% at one point . Gold fell for the third consecutive day, with spot gold dropping nearly 3% intraday.
During Asian trading hours, the three major A-share indices all closed lower, with agricultural stocks bucking the trend and surging to their daily limit, bank stocks hitting new highs in batches, computing hardware stocks declining, the Hang Seng Index falling 1%, and tech stocks generally falling.
Market closing report
US and European stock markets : The S&P 500 closed down 0.71% at 7631.47 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.79% at 52766.88 points; and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.03% at 26099.774 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.56% at 647.46 points.
A-shares : The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.16% at 3979.89 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 1.02% at 13872.38 points. The ChiNext Index closed down 1.32% at 3393.43 points.
Bond Market : By the close of trading, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was around 4.80%, up about 5 basis points for the day; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note was around 4.40%, up about 6 basis points for the day.
Commodities : WTI October crude oil futures rose 5.20% to $90.22 per barrel; Brent November crude oil futures rose 4.60% to $94.65 per barrel. COMEX September gold futures fell 1.88% to $4,348 per ounce. COMEX September silver futures fell 2.42% to $64.618 per ounce. COMEX September copper futures fell 1.32% to $6.5065 per pound.
News Details
China
In his speech at the SCO "Shanghai Cooperation Organization Plus" meeting, the Chinese President pointed out that as a responsible major country, China actively advocates an equal and orderly multipolar world. Sovereign equality and mutual respect are the fundamental principles, balanced and orderly development and adherence to the rule of law are the inevitable requirements, multilateralism and dialogue and consultation are the key paths, and mutual benefit and win-win cooperation and inclusive development are the direction of development.
- The Bishkek Declaration on the 25th Anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation : Reaffirmed the position of condemning the military strikes on Iranian territory, advocated resolving the conflict through political and diplomatic means, and implemented the roadmap for expanding the share of local currency settlements.
Li Qiang met with a delegation from the US-China Business Council . Li Qiang pointed out that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. China may be the only market with both "large" and "new" characteristics and great potential. He welcomed American companies to seize the opportunity and cultivate the Chinese market.
China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August, with new export orders growing at their fastest pace in six months . The manufacturing sector as a whole continued to strengthen in August, with demand, output, and exports all accelerating. Factory gate prices saw their first decline this year. Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, stated that the faster growth in new orders and strong export expansion are positive signs, while the decline in factory gate prices indicates that competitive pressure remains.
NIO's revenue in the second quarter increased by 69% year-on-year, with gross margin rising to 18.4% . Total revenue reached RMB 32.14 billion, and deliveries reached 107,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. The gross margin of the whole vehicle increased to 18.5%, and non-GAAP net profit was RMB 26.1 million, achieving profitability for two consecutive quarters. Cash reserves reached RMB 56.7 billion, and the delivery guidance for the third quarter is 108,000 to 111,000 vehicles.
- NIO conference call: Cost per vehicle will increase by at least 2,000 yuan in the second half of the year, and the average monthly sales volume in the fourth quarter is aimed at 40,000 vehicles : CFO Qu Yu said that the cost per vehicle has increased by about 14,000 yuan compared with the end of last year, and will increase by another 2,000 to 3,000 yuan in the second half of the year, but the goal is to keep the gross profit margin stable at 18.5%.
Zhipu Conference Call: ARR guidance of $2.4 billion by the end of the year; API call volume still increased 40 times after a 101% price increase . The company disclosed ARR guidance of $2.4 billion for the first time, admitting that it is still lagging behind Anthropic. The gross margin target is to reach 50% within 12 to 18 months. The daily call volume of the top ten customers increased 98 times. The next generation base is already being trained.
The successful maiden flight of the Zhishenxing-1 rocket marks a new milestone for China's rocket models . Zhishenxing-1, the first liquid rocket developed by Galactic Energy, successfully completed its maiden flight on September 1. After six years of development and powered by seven Sky Engines, Galactic Energy officially became the fourth private liquid rocket company in China.
The three departments issued guidelines on overseas competition and compliance in the automotive industry , proposing that companies should establish pricing strategies based on costs and international market supply and demand, reasonably determine price differences between countries, and strengthen compliance with cross-border data transmission for connected vehicles and autonomous driving, as well as compliance with overseas anti-monopoly regulations.
Since the implementation of the "Shanghai Eight Measures", the transaction area of new and second-hand housing in August increased by 15% year -on-year. The average daily deposit amount for new housing contracts surged by 90%. The monthly transaction volume of second-hand housing exceeded 20,000 units for nine consecutive months. The average daily visitor volume of some projects outside the outer ring road increased by 50% and the transaction volume doubled. The resettlement of housing vouchers has been accelerated.
Two departments announced that starting September 1, foreign individuals will no longer be exempt from individual income tax on dividends and bonuses . Foreign individuals will be subject to individual income tax on dividends and bonuses received from foreign-invested enterprises as "interest, dividends, and bonuses" at a rate of 20%. Experts believe this move reflects tax fairness.
Photovoltaic power generation capacity has historically surpassed coal power . As of the end of July, China's photovoltaic power generation capacity reached 1.286 billion kilowatts, becoming the largest power source. However, photovoltaic power generation is characterized by intermittency and volatility, and its utilization hours are far lower than those of coal power. In the short term, coal power will still play a role in providing a safety net.
August EV sales figures: Leapmotor surpasses 100,000 units again to retain its sales crown, while XPeng and Li Auto overtake NIO. Leapmotor maintained its sales crown with 103,000 deliveries and continued to be profitable. XPeng and Li Auto, with 39,000 and 37,000 units respectively, surpassed NIO's 35,000 units. BYD continued to lead with 440,000 units.
China's first fully AI-generated long-form drama, "The Journey to the West After," premiered on Hunan TV, marking a significant leap forward in the industrialization of AI-driven film and television . This 30-episode series, produced entirely with AI-generated content and featuring no live actors, premiered on August 31st on both Hunan TV's prime time slot and Mango TV. It signifies the first time AI content has entered the mainstream long-form content broadcasting system and has become the first drama series to be "produced, reviewed, and broadcast simultaneously" after the State Administration of Radio and Television's "21 Articles."
overseas
The US military has begun striking targets inside Iran. Trump said that if Iran retaliates, it will face even fiercer attacks. Iran's energy hub port was attacked, and Iran has begun to retaliate . The US military is striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said this is retaliation for Iran's attempt to lay mines in the strait and attack US military bases in Jordan. US crude oil rose above $90 for the first time since late July. The market expects the probability of a September rate hike to rise to 68%.
Two oil tankers were attacked while leaving the Hormuz; Brent crude oil broke through $92 and diesel crack spread exceeded $100 : Goldman Sachs warned that "diesel is in the center of supply squeeze" and the US diesel crack spread exceeded $100.
- The US is reportedly considering "regular strikes" against Iran. Escort Hormuz : Trump is considering a military plan called "Mowing the Lawn," and Bessant says the US may announce new sanctions against Iranian banks this week.
- With the rial hitting a historic low and domestic inflation at 66%, the Central Bank of Iran plans to inject $2 billion to rescue its foreign exchange reserves : The Iranian governor claims there are sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and the theory of Iran's collapse is nothing more than psychological warfare.
Iran calls on the US to rejoin the ceasefire memorandum; Vance says Trump's Kharg Island video is "sending a message" : Iran's foreign minister said the US needs to reinstate the June ceasefire memorandum to get out of the predicament, while Vance said Trump's AI video of the bombing of Kharg Island was "sending a message" rather than an announcement of military action.
- Bessant: The Strait of Hormuz may be "bypassed" within two years, becoming "worthless waters".
- The US Army Secretary resigns, and a series of Pentagon leaders leave : Driscoll resigned due to serious disagreements with the Secretary of Defense over decisions such as firing the Army Chief of Staff, leaving two key Army positions vacant at the same time.
The US unveiled a "debt reduction plan" at the G20: Bessant and Warsh jointly called for "growth as the only way out of the predicament." Against the backdrop of high global debt and the impact of the Iran war on the energy market, US Treasury Secretary Bessant and Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh jointly launched a "growth-based debt reduction" narrative at the G20 finance ministers' meeting. Bessant called on G20 countries to implement deregulation policies, while Warsh declared the end of the era of "long-term stagnation" and said that "growth is an option."
For the first time since 1996, the yield on Japanese benchmark bonds has broken through the 3% mark , driven by a combination of factors: Bessant's rare public pressure on Japan to raise interest rates at the G20 summit, market expectations of a 90% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September, and a global bond sell-off.
- Sovereign bond yields hit a new high since 2008! US and Japanese government bonds broke through key levels, why did the global bond market collapse across the board?: The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.78% and approached 5%, with high global inflation, out-of-control fiscal deficits, and no hope for interest rate cuts in many countries.
- Under the "double squeeze" of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has reached its longest high since 2006 : the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has closed below 5% for 55 days this year, reaching a high of 5.34% in August.
Another hawk has spoken out after Warsh! Federal Reserve Governor Barr said that interest rates should be raised decisively if inflation does not cool down sufficiently . In July, three central bank governors voted in favor of raising interest rates, a rare occurrence. The market is now focused on the August CPI data to be released on September 11, which will be a key factor in whether to raise interest rates at the policy meeting on September 15-16.
Following Warsh's hawkish remarks, Trump stated that "rate hikes" are absurd . Barclays predicts the Fed will raise rates twice this year, in September and December, after previously expecting no further rate hikes this year.
Eurozone CPI surged to a three-year high in August, making an ECB rate hike next week a certainty? The CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since September 2023. Soaring energy prices make a 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB in September almost a certainty, but core inflation falling to 2.4% has created divergence in the subsequent path.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index fell slightly in August, missing expectations but still remaining at a near four-year high . The ISM index dropped to 54.6, below the expected 55.2, and was the second highest since 2022. The price index remained unchanged at 71.1, indicating that cost pressures have not subsided.
U.S. JOLTS job openings fell short of expectations for the second consecutive month in July, with 7.27 million openings, down from the expected 7.31 million. Manufacturing job openings rose to their highest level since December 2023, while layoffs fell to their lowest level since January of this year.
Tim Cook steps down as Apple CEO: In a letter to all employees, he bids farewell to 15 years at the helm . After leading Apple for 15 years, Cook officially handed over the reins, emphasizing that he will not leave Apple and will continue to be involved in global government relations and other matters as executive chairman. He also highly praised his successor, Tenus, saying that he understands the effort required to create products that change the world.
- Tim Cook is stepping down but not leaving the company, and Apple's new CEO faces his biggest test yet : 51-year-old Tenus is known for his product expertise, which fits Apple's AI transformation needs, but he lacks experience in political and business relations.
Apple CEO Steve Tenus's first all-hands letter: Next week's iPhone launch will be "extraordinary".
Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI uncovers new evidence: a former engineer stole circuit diagrams and instructed colleagues to destroy evidence . Former Apple engineer Chang Liu not only downloaded confidential circuit schematics but also used them for work at OpenAI and sent instructions to colleagues to destroy evidence. Apple is seeking an order for OpenAI to immediately cease using the stolen trade secrets.
Amazon is being sued by the FTC and 22 states for allegedly manipulating ad auctions . The lawsuit alleges that since 2019, Amazon has manipulated ad auctions by introducing "fictitious bidders," affecting as many as 1.2 million advertisers. The lawsuit seeks civil penalties that could amount to billions of dollars.
Why did Nvidia invest $3.5 billion to secure MediaTek's AI factory? A convertible bond reveals a battle for dominance. MediaTek completed a $3.9 billion convertible bond issuance, with Nvidia leading the investment with $3.5 billion, accounting for approximately 89.7% of the issuance. Alphabet followed with the remaining shares, and the two companies will jointly build an AI factory.
- Ming-Chi Kuo: NVIDIA restarts Rubin CPX project, an inference pre-filling optimized chip : The new version uses 168GB HBM4 memory and is expected to enter mass production in early 2027, focusing on pre-filling and KV cache generation.
Nvidia acted as a "matchmaker," helping Anthropic reach a $35 billion computing power agreement with "AI cloud" Lambda. This year, Anthropic has signed two computing power deals worth tens of billions of dollars, totaling $80 billion. Nvidia provides credit backing to Anthropic by holding data center leases, extending its reach to the entire computing power supply chain.
Behind Anthropic's $35 billion cloud deal, the real landlord is Nvidia : Nvidia not only sells chips to Lambda, but also holds investments and has secured data center leases in advance, becoming the "invisible landlord" of the largest cloud service deal in AI history.
Dell shares surged after the company raised its full-year guidance to $192 billion, exceeding expectations. Q2 revenue hit a record high of $47 billion, a 58% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $7.04, a 203% year-over-year increase. The company significantly raised its full-year revenue guidance from approximately $167 billion to $192 billion. The stock rose as much as 11% in after-hours trading.
Demand for AI chips continues to surge, with South Korea's exports in August rising by nearly 70 % year-on-year. South Korea's exports in August increased by 68.7% year-on-year to US$98.25 billion, marking the 15th consecutive month of growth. Semiconductor exports surged by 209% to a record high of US$46.65 billion, but the export trend showed a "K-shaped" divergence.
Samsung has announced its next-generation memory roadmap: HBM5 will have twice the performance of HBM4E , the HBM5 base chip process will be upgraded to 2 nanometers, and mass production is expected in 2028. The new zHBM architecture is expected to have eight times the performance of HBM4E and will be launched after 2029.
OpenAI's decision to cut off Cursor's supply has triggered a reshuffling of the programming AI landscape . OpenAI announced that it will terminate the provision of AI model services to Cursor, a programming tool owned by SpaceX, citing its inability to trust SpaceX to comply with the terms of service. The contract will end on November 12. Anthropic has stated that it will increase computing power to fill the gap.
Anthropic launched Fable 5.1, reducing the price of the "cache hit" process by 75% . The product manager stated that the "cache hit" process accounts for more than half of the token consumption in some complex and long tasks, which is the most concentrated pain point reported by customers. At the same time, the data is now stored in the customer's own cloud.
According to Ultraman, OpenAI's Astra has reached human-level computer operation . Ultraman claims that Astra can work continuously for several days, has long-term memory, and supports multi-agent collaboration. Real-world testing shows that GPT 5.6 has a stronger backend but is prone to over-engineering, while Anthropic's Fable 5, with its front-end interface and one-time completion capability, remains the top choice among developers.
ChatGPT, Reddit, and Roblox have been included in the EU's "mega-platform" regulation . The EU has classified the three as mega-platforms under the Digital Services Act, with each having more than 45 million monthly active users. Violations can be punished with a maximum penalty of 6% of their global annual sales. ChatGPT is classified as an online search engine.
Bessant's meeting with the Bank of Japan governor sent a strong signal: the US supports a stronger yen . The meeting minutes showed that Bessant "strongly supports Japan taking decisive market and monetary policy measures to address the yen's significant undervaluation." The market expects the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in September to be close to 100%.
- Key points of the meeting between Bessant and Kazuo Ueda: The two sides may reach a consensus on the Bank of Japan's accelerated interest rate hikes : Bessant said that "Abenomics may have reached its end", implying support for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes to stabilize the yen.
- Japan's Finance Minister downplayed pressure to raise interest rates : Japan and the US have reached a consensus on maintaining orderly fluctuations in the yen, but denied discussing monetary policy with Bessant.
- Japanese media reports: Bessant "informed" Japanese officials that "a rate hike is necessary" : Bessant clearly conveyed the necessity of a rate hike to Japanese officials during the G20 summit, further strengthening expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in September.
The yen has broken below 160 again. How many more times can Japan intervene? The yen has fallen below the 160 mark once more. The effect of the US-Japan joint intervention of hundreds of billions of dollars only lasted for one month. Japan's available intervention ammunition has been significantly narrowed. The future trend depends on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike path and the coordination of US-Japan policies.
When will the yen's depreciation reverse? JPMorgan: 155 to 165 may become a trading range : If a full-scale liquidation is triggered, the USD/JPY may fall by 14 to 18 yen to the 142 to 146 range.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has again warned against buying gold unless absolutely necessary. This marks the second time this year that Modi has publicly discouraged the public from purchasing gold. India's gold imports for fiscal year 2025-26 are expected to reach a record $71.98 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year. Spot gold prices fell below $4,400 during the day.
Musk: AI could boost global economic growth by 20% to 30%, and there will be 1 billion humanoid robots in the next decade . Musk said at the G20 summit that AI could boost the global economy by 20% to 30%, and that by the end of next year, AI will be able to do all the work in the digital field.
Trump's son's investment fund has acquired a stake in Polymarket, valuing the "prediction market giant" at $21 billion . 1789 Capital, co-founded by Trump's son, is leading a $1 billion funding round for Polymarket and has contributed approximately $300 million, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $21 billion.
West African cocoa harvest is once again hampered by weather and disease, with cocoa futures surging more than 70% since June . El Niño, the spread of black fruit disease, and shortages of agricultural inputs are putting pressure on production in major producing countries such as Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, and the global supply surplus is expected to narrow to about 25,000 tons.
Agricultural commodities saw their biggest monthly increase in 14 years, with war and El Niño contributing to the surge. The Bloomberg Agriculture Cash Index jumped more than 13% in August, the biggest monthly increase since 2012. Black Sea shelling blocked a quarter of global wheat exports, and El Niño drove sugar and cocoa prices up by about 20%.
The price increase of refined oil products far exceeds that of crude oil: Goldman Sachs has more than doubled its forecast for US diesel profits , the scale of unplanned production shutdowns at global refineries is 60% higher than normal, geopolitical conflicts have delayed the recovery of refined oil product shipments, Russia has extended its diesel export ban, and Brazil's peak season and the recovery of heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere have added to the situation.
Selected Views
JPMorgan Trading Desk: Ending its bullish stance since June, it has shifted to "tactical caution" regarding US stocks. This marks another precise shift in stance this year. With six major pressure factors converging—including a surge in the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 58%, crowded market positioning, September's worst seasonality in history, and a more than 34% plunge in momentum factors from their peak—the index may trade sideways, but volatility in individual stocks and sub-sectors is not unexpected.
Citadel: US stocks may face a "tactical downside window" in September; it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and buy protection at low prices. With the positive earnings reports for the second quarter exhausted, retail and repurchase demand entering a seasonally weak period, coupled with a large number of option expirations and a concentrated return of macroeconomic risks, the downside risk in September has increased. It is recommended to wait for a more constructive positioning opportunity in mid-October.
Goldman Sachs remains bullish on Alibaba: its computing power investment may recoup its costs within 3 years, and its external cloud revenue is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030. AI investment is gradually entering its return phase, with core e-commerce providing ample cash flow, cloud business supporting AI commercialization, and overseas expansion and the deployment of Qwen intelligent agents. AI investment is expected to transform from a cost item into a growth engine.
Goldman Sachs: Five Key Debates in the Semiconductor Industry. AI capital expenditure remains resilient; the WFE upcycle is expected to continue until 2028; DRAM and NAND supply and demand remain tight; and the accelerated penetration of customized AI chips and Agentic AI is expected to open up new growth opportunities for the industry chain.
Gavin Baker: Everyone is worried about over-construction of AI, but the real risk may be under-construction. After visiting the entire industry, no AI business data points were found that were deteriorating. If the supply is severely insufficient, the cost of accessing AI may not decrease but increase, ultimately leading to "computing power inequality".
Fu Peng: Looking beneath the surface of low volatility from the damper principle of skyscrapers. The positive trend of AI capital expenditure has shifted from a window of certainty to a window of uncertainty, and the fourth internal unidirectional shift is likely approaching, and it is more likely to occur in the form of a shock.
Bank of America: China's AI model upgrades are accelerating and usage is surging, with the cloud entering a new upward cycle. Domestic models Kimi K3 and GLM-5.3 have achieved 95% of the performance of Claude Opus 5. Capital expenditures of the four major cloud platforms will nearly double by 2026, and the AI MaaS sector is experiencing a compound annual growth rate of 81%.
While the credit market appears calm on the surface, a $1 trillion "misalignment" is spreading beneath the surface. Global investment-grade credit spreads are at historically low levels, but the spreads of approximately $1 trillion in corporate bonds are significantly deviating from credit ratings. Large-scale bond issuances by AI giants are pushing up index weightings, creating pricing distortions in sectors such as technology, automobiles, and insurance.
Today's Focus
【China】
Coking coal options were listed and traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with the first batch of options based on 10 futures contracts, including J2611.
SEMICON Taiwan 2026, the international semiconductor exhibition, has opened and will run from September 2nd to 4th, focusing on AI chips, advanced packaging, and HBM.
Suiyuan Technology's IPO is open for online and offline subscription.
【overseas】
South Korea's August CPI;
Bank of Japan policy board member Hajime Takada delivers a speech;
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision;
The Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference held by Governor Macklem.
US August ADP employment;
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending August 28;
The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions.
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