Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | September 30, 2026

Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | September 30, 2026

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A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions regarding media reports that relevant EU member states were pushing the European Commission to create a European version of the "Section 301" instrument.

For the first time in the history of central government finances, a "mortgage interest subsidy" was launched before the holiday: first-time homebuyers, those with homes under 120 square meters, and those with mortgages under 1.5 million yuan are eligible.

The People's Bank of China has taken action: cutting interest rates, increasing financial support through the "six-pronged approach," and expanding the "re-lending quota."

Report: US-Iran negotiations have made little progress, with neither side willing to concede.

U.S. JOLTS job openings fell to 7.079 million in August, the lowest in five months and the third consecutive month below expectations. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since 2014 in September, and the stagnant characteristics of low hiring, low layoffs and low mobility in the job market continued.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Williams said that there might be another rate hike later this year, but there is no need to rush into action. Several officials reiterated their tightening stance on the same day, and the market's pricing in an October rate hike fell from about 70% to about 50%.

Trump met with more than ten tech leaders, including Musk, Huang, and Zuckerberg, at the White House, explicitly rejecting legislative oversight and pushing for industry self-regulation. He also announced that "artificial intelligence" would be renamed "superintelligence" in government documents.

Reports indicate that OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue is approaching $70 billion, and it plans to raise at least $30 billion, targeting a valuation of $1.4 trillion. OpenAI also released Dots, a personal AI assistant with a premium subscription costing $500 per month, five times the price of the premium version of Muse. Altman stated that security is paramount, there is no IPO timetable, and the postponement of GPT-6.1 Astra's release is due to extreme caution.

Apple's new CEO, Ternus, is pushing forward with internal reforms: accelerating product development and streamlining the organizational structure.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35% as expected. The decision was unanimously approved by the committee. The post-meeting rhetoric was hawkish and did not rule out further tightening. The Middle East conflict pushing up energy prices is seen as a new variable driving up inflation.

Market Overview

The stalemate between the US and Iran and the continued rise in US Treasury yields formed the two main themes of the day. Oil prices fluctuated before closing lower, while gold rebounded after a sharp drop in the previous trading day. The three major US stock indices closed slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between interest rates and oil prices. The core contradiction in the funding situation was long-term interest rates: the 30-year US Treasury yield once rose above 5.6%, reaching its highest level since 2002, but statements from Federal Reserve officials that there was no need to rush into action cooled expectations of interest rate hikes, limiting the decline in the stock market.

U.S. stocks : The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 51,349.92 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7,670.84 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09% to 26,797.54 points; the energy sector fell 0.89%, while utilities rose 1.14%.

A-shares : The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3830.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 12901.95 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09% to 3142.56 points; the total turnover of the two markets was 1.41 trillion yuan, a new low for the year.

Hong Kong stocks : The Hang Seng Index fell 0.48% to 24,523.57 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.08% to 4,249.62 points; Geely Automobile fell more than 7%, leading the blue chips to decline, while NIO fell 5%.

European stocks : The STOXX 600 index fell 0.09% to 638.08 points, the German DAX rose 0.1% to 25399.21 points, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.45% to 10636.71 points.

Japan and South Korea : The South Korean KOSPI index fell below the 7,000-point mark, with the average daily turnover rate this month dropping to a year-to-date low of 0.50%.

Crude oil : WTI November futures fell 3.48% to $89.38 per barrel, and Brent November futures fell 2.56% to $102.59 per barrel; market hopes for a peace agreement between the US and Iran have diminished, but outflows of Middle Eastern crude oil are resuming.

Precious metals : COMEX gold futures rose 1.12% to $4,215.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.21% to $61.84 per ounce; in the previous trading day, the two fell sharply by 4.00% and 5.82% respectively.

Industrial metals : COMEX copper futures rose 0.43% to $6.6620 per pound.

US Treasuries : The 10-year yield rose to 5.293%, nearing its highest level since June 2007, while the 30-year yield reached a high of 5.619%, its highest level since June 2002.

Foreign exchange : The ICE dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.366 points, up 1.5% against a basket of currencies since September; the offshore yuan was quoted at 6.7080 yuan, up 47 points from the previous New York close, rebounding for two consecutive days.

Bitcoin : Following a weakening of risk appetite, it fell by more than 2% during the day before rebounding from around $82,500.

News Details

China

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered a reporter's question regarding media reports that some EU member states were pushing the European Commission to create a European version of the "Section 301" tool . The European version of the "Section 301" tool is a typical protectionist and unilateralist measure that will not only fail to solve the problem but will also backfire, further disrupting China-EU trade and the stability of global supply chains. China urges the EU to adhere to the correct path of managing differences through dialogue. China will closely monitor the EU's subsequent actions. If the EU insists on introducing discriminatory restrictions on Chinese companies or products, China will resolutely respond and defend the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries.

For the first time in central government history, a mortgage interest subsidy program has been launched before the holiday: first-time homebuyers purchasing homes under 120 square meters for a property valued at 1.5 million yuan or less are eligible . The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the State Financial Regulatory Commission have clarified that the mortgage interest subsidy policy will be implemented from October 1st, with a policy period of one year. Eligible first-time homebuyers using commercial personal housing loans can enjoy an annualized interest subsidy of 1%, with a maximum subsidy period of five years, equivalent to one-third of the preferential interest rate. For example, a long-term loan of 1 million yuan can reduce interest payments by up to nearly 50,000 yuan.

The mortgage interest subsidy policy precisely targets and reduces monthly mortgage payments for families with essential housing needs. What is its effect on stimulating the housing market? This mortgage interest subsidy does not universally lower mortgage rates, but rather uses fiscal subsidies to specifically reduce the cost of homeownership for families with essential housing needs. The policy sets limits on total price, size, and whether it's for first-time homebuyers, indicating that the focus is on releasing genuine owner-occupied demand. The degree of benefit will vary depending on city housing prices and population flow. For large cities, the policy may further improve the transaction of smaller, lower-priced apartments; for third- and fourth-tier cities, it leans more towards providing a safety net, and the actual effect still depends on residents' income and willingness to buy.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has taken action, including cutting interest rates, increasing financial support through the "six networks" (a financial service network for science and technology innovation and technological upgrading), and expanding the relending quota . The PBOC further adjusted and improved several monetary policy tools: lowering the PSL (Pledged Supplementary Lending) rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, expanding PSL support to include the construction of the "six networks"; increasing the relending quota for technological innovation and technological upgrading by 200 billion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan, raising the support ratio to 100%; and increasing the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan to 4.85 trillion yuan.

Xinhua Commentary: Building New Houses Well and Renovating Old Houses Well . A Xinhua News Agency article analyzes that China's urban development is shifting from a phase of large-scale incremental expansion to one focused on improving the quality and efficiency of existing housing stock. The coordinated development of "new construction" and "old renovation" is essential for urban renewal, addressing shortcomings in people's livelihoods and opening up new opportunities for upgrading the construction industry and transforming the real estate market.

Joining the personal AI agent battle! Doubao is reportedly launching a personal assistant product called "Spell," which has already entered internal testing in April . Doubao reportedly plans to deeply integrate its internally codenamed "Spell" personal assistant project with its existing capabilities and accelerate its external release. The project began internal testing as early as April this year, primarily driven by the Doubao mobile assistant team. Doubao's current product strategy clearly shows a two-pronged approach: on the enterprise side, it's entering the office agent market with "Doubao Work," while on the consumer side, it's targeting overseas competitors with its upcoming personal assistant product.

overseas

Report: US-Iran negotiations have made little progress, with neither side willing to concede. According to reports, Qatar, the mediator, attempted to push for a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran this week, but progress was minimal, with neither side willing to compromise. This stalemate further reinforces the assessment by both the US and Iran that a military conflict could escalate again. US officials believe that Trump may order a resumption of large-scale military operations after the midterm elections. Qatari officials will continue their mediation efforts, but are increasingly frustrated with both the US and Iran.

Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have resumed! Trump stated that the US and Iran have "exchanged information," and Iran is awaiting a response from the US . While there are differences in public statements from the US and Iran, the two sides continue to exchange information through mediators such as Qatar, and negotiations have not been interrupted. Trump denied promising to lift sanctions, but expects the two sides to resume negotiations in the coming week; Iran has expressed its willingness to negotiate, but demands a response from the US to its "7-day plan" and emphasizes that it will not accept coercion. The prospects for negotiations remain uncertain, and oil prices continue to rise, supported by concerns about Middle East supply.

Trump Meets with Tech Giants: AI to be Renamed "Superintelligence," No Need for Legislative Regulation, "It Far Surpasses the Industrial Revolution." At a closed-door luncheon at the White House with leaders of top global AI companies, including Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg, Trump explicitly rejected legislative regulation, strongly advocating for industry self-regulation, and announced the renaming of "artificial intelligence" to "superintelligence." He emphasized that the key to America's AI leadership lies in "not stifling growth," positioning the Department of Justice and the FBI as the core mechanisms for regulating AI.

U.S. job openings fell to a five-month low in August, missing expectations for the third consecutive month . The number of job openings in the U.S. fell to 7.079 million in August, below economists' expectations of 7.228 million. Job openings in the real estate and rental sector were only 50,000, nearly halved from the previous month. The quit rate remained at 1.9%, the lowest level since 2020. The ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to 1.0. Analysts point out that the net hiring implied by the JOLTS data has been lower than the non-farm payroll report for three consecutive months, posing a significant downside risk to Friday's non-farm payroll data.

Several Federal Reserve officials supported further interest rate hikes, with the third-ranking official stating that further rate hikes were needed this year but there was no rush, cooling expectations for an October rate hike . New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday that if the economy performs broadly as expected, another rate hike later this year might be appropriate, but the September rate hike provided more time to observe, and "there's no need to rush." Following Williams' remarks, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October fell from about 70% to around 50%. On the same day, Fed Governor Barr, the presidents of the Chicago and St. Louis Feds also expressed support for further rate hikes.

Report: OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue is approaching $70 billion, and Oracle's stock price once rose by more than 8% . According to media reports, OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has increased by more than 70% since the beginning of the third quarter; enterprise sales have more than doubled since July; and new consumer revenue in the third quarter has already exceeded the total new consumer revenue for 2025. Following the announcement, Oracle's stock price rose by as much as 8.2%. Oracle is a key partner for OpenAI's expansion of computing infrastructure, and whether the computing demand can be supported by real revenue growth has been a focus of market attention.

OpenAI challenges Meta: Launches Dots, a personal AI assistant with a premium subscription costing $500 per month, five times the price of the premium version of Muse . To compete for market share with Meta's Muse, OpenAI released Dots, an "always-on" AI agent. Dots runs on the GPT-6 version of the Astra model and can proactively handle tasks such as research, programming, and document drafting for users. On the same day, OpenAI also launched the GPT-6.1 Sol model, whose performance is close to Astra, but whose standard token cost is only one-fifth of Astra's. Meta's stock price briefly fell after the Dots release but then rebounded, rising 2.27% as of press time.

Reports indicate that OpenAI is seeking to raise at least $30 billion at a target valuation of $1.4 trillion . According to media reports, OpenAI is looking to raise over $30 billion at a valuation of $1.4 trillion, using a bridge round instead of an IPO to supplement its funding. This round of financing is primarily driven by investors. If successful, OpenAI's valuation will surpass Anthropic's latest private market valuation, regaining its industry-leading position. Altman previously stated that he is abandoning the IPO process this year.

Altman: Safety First, No IPO Timeline, GPT-6.1 Astra Release Postponed Out of Extreme Caution . OpenAI CEO Altman stated that an IPO may only be on the agenda after the company has a clearer understanding of how to safely address the "next level of AI." The postponement of GPT-6.1 Astra's release is due to the model not meeting some of the company's safety assessment test standards, and is "out of extreme caution" rather than due to any serious incident. He also pointed out that NVIDIA's security systems for AI are not "complete solutions"; AI is more of a scientific problem than an engineering one.

Apple's new CEO, John Ternus, is pushing for internal reforms: accelerating product development and streamlining the organizational structure . Within weeks of taking office, Ternus has initiated internal restructuring, planning to reduce reliance on fixed release cycles, accelerate product iteration, and cut some mid-level management positions and team sizes. Amid slowing growth in its services business and rising cost pressures, Ternus is also seeking new revenue streams. Next year's packed product lineup will be a test of his reform strategies.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35% as expected, warning of upside risks to inflation and not ruling out further tightening . The RBA announced the 25 basis point increase to 4.35% on Tuesday. Continued higher-than-expected inflation and rising energy prices due to Middle East conflict have accelerated the realization of upside risks. The RBA's hawkish tone, explicitly stating it "will take necessary action," suggests the rate hike cycle is far from over. The Australian dollar strengthened in the short term, while the stock market came under pressure and fell, with the market remaining highly vigilant about the future path of the economy.

Selected Views

Gold is facing severe pressure due to soaring US real interest rates, the upcoming Chinese holiday, and the breach of key support levels . Gold is experiencing its most intense sell-off this year – the price plummeted 3.2% to $4,150 in a single day, breaking through multiple key moving averages, while silver plunged even more sharply by 5%. The triple negative factors – soaring US real interest rates to an 18-year high, concentrated position closing by Chinese investors before the holiday, and uncertainty surrounding the Iranian situation – are pushing gold prices to a critical trendline level. A break below this level could see $4,000 become the next target. ETF fund flows will determine the final outcome of this "most severe test of resilience."

UBS: Historically, the Federal Reserve has never raised interest rates in October before an election, and this time may be no different . UBS believes that expectations for an October rate hike are clearly excessive. Historically, the Fed has never raised rates at its October meeting so close to an election, and recommends lowering its price target for a rate hike over the next year from 91 basis points to 75 basis points. Meanwhile, soaring US Treasury yields have significantly compressed US stock valuations; if interest rates fall, the stock market may have room for a rebound.

A veteran bond market analyst has turned bullish on US Treasuries for the first time in six years, stating that the 5.2% yield provides a sufficient buffer . Jim Bianco, a seasoned Wall Street market veteran and founder of Bianco Research, has turned bullish on US Treasuries for the first time in six years. With the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.27%, he believes that a yield of around 5.2% provides a substantial yield buffer, and even if a bond market sell-off continues, the current risk-reward ratio for US Treasuries has significantly improved.

The impact of the US Treasury bond crisis continues to intensify, yet the US stock market remains unmoved. While US Treasury yields continue to rise and bond volatility remains high, the US stock market has shown resilience, resulting in a rare divergence from the traditional correlation between interest rates and the stock market. Goldman Sachs data shows that the S&P 500 has risen 13% this year, but its 12-month EPS forecast has surged by 29%, pushing the forward price-to-earnings ratio down to 19 times. Earnings growth has become a significant support for the US stock market. Meanwhile, the reversal of yen carry trades could exacerbate the global bond sell-off, becoming another potential risk that the market is concerned about.

Michael Burry, a prominent short-seller, believes the AI bubble may burst "earlier than expected" and is replacing short positions with put options to increase leverage . Burry suggests the AI bubble will burst as early as next summer and has replaced all his short positions in Micron, Nebius, SOXX Semiconductor ETF, and Palantir with put options to gain lower-cost, higher-leverage short exposure. He argues that the AI boom is built on the unproven assumption of "continuous capital expenditure," and that capital will quickly withdraw once revenue disappoints.

Seven intriguing details in Anthropic's prospectus . Anthropic secretly filed its IPO prospectus, revealing that the company's annual loss of $42 billion, mostly accounting entries, contrasts sharply with its revenue, which has surged 12-fold. Its $65 billion annualized revenue comes from an uncontracted customer base, and its $518 billion computing power commitment far exceeds its cash reserves. Even more unusual is the founder's declaration, using 50.1% of the voting rights and "giving up video generation," that security may take precedence over shareholder returns.

"I almost never drive anymore," says Morgan Stanley analyst, suggesting Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) may be close to "solving" the autonomous driving challenge . Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas personally tested Tesla's FSD, accumulating 2,713 miles of driving over the past year, with 98% to 99% completed by the system. Last week, he even achieved a 28-mile journey without any human intervention. The report believes that FSD technology is maturing, and the commercialization prospects of autonomous driving are likely to strengthen further. Morgan Stanley maintains its $400 price target for Tesla and considers FSD, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots as core valuation pillars.

Samsung: HBM to Account for Nearly 30% of DRAM Capacity Next Year, Traditional Memory Supply May Tighten Further . Samsung Electronics predicts that HBM's share of global DRAM wafer capacity will rise from approximately 20% to nearly 30% next year, continuing to squeeze traditional DRAM supply. Samsung's average monthly HBM wafer starts are expected to increase by nearly 40%, with the HBM4 series accounting for approximately 80%. TrendForce predicts that AI demand and capacity competition will keep memory supply tight in 2027, and has raised its forecast for the average selling price increase of HBM hybrids to 121%.

Jev founder: "Build products, not gods," pursuing "ultimate reliability," Jev will reverse the "software extinction theory." AI can write code, but it hasn't made software smarter. TypeSafe founder Diogo believes that AI and software are disconnected, betting that Jev will embed intelligence into programs, achieving "doing what you want" with "ultimate reliability," and predicting that the SaaS software doomsday theory will be reversed.

Today's Focus

China

Official manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for September released.

On the last trading day before the National Day holiday, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will trade normally. The markets will be closed from October 1st to 8th.

overseas

US September ADP Employment Change

US Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Final Figure

US August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September in the United States

Several Federal Reserve officials delivered speeches.

Micron Technology releases financial report

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