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The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC ) will strengthen the construction of compliance, risk control, and financial internal control systems for private fund managers , and clarify the basic principle of "sellers fulfilling their responsibilities and buyers bearing their own risks."

The US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August , far exceeding the expected 55,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The combined upward revision of the previous two months' data by 55,000 jobs has increased the probability of a September rate hike from 49.4% to 58% . " The New Fed Watcher ": August's employment data cleared the way for a rate hike; the September meeting awaits the "tone-setting" of inflation.

Trump called the August jobs data "very strong" but again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply, saying that high interest rates put the United States at an "unfair disadvantage" and that he would stop trading with countries with trade deficits if the US did not comply . Vice President Vance also publicly called for a rate cut, which directly contradicted the Fed Chairman Warsh's stance that hinted at a rate hike.

Bessenter : Oil prices will fall to $40 after the Iranian conflict ends, and bond yields will subsequently decline.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund plans to reduce its exposure to US Treasury bonds by approximately $80 billion and shift to Fannie Mae and MBS, an institution guaranteed by Freddie Mac. The withdrawal of the world's largest sovereign wealth fund from US Treasury bonds has attracted attention.

Tesla's Cybercab began operations in Austin, but the launch event fell short of expectations, lacking scale targets and timelines. Nearly a thousand vehicles were also subject to review by US transportation safety regulators, causing the stock price to drop 5.92%.

The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Turkish investment bank Golden Global, accusing it of acting as a transit point for Iranian shadow banking and blacklisting it to sever its connection with the dollar system. Bessenter has announced further action next week.

S &P has issued a credit warning for AI infrastructure, stating that the capital expenditures of the six major cloud vendors may exceed $7 trillion by 2030, but the returns have not been quantified. It also specifically names Amazon as facing AA rating risks and Oracle as potentially falling into junk status.

Market Overview

The much stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data in August led the market to bet again on a Fed rate hike in September , pushing short-term US Treasury yields to their highest level in over a year and a half. The three major US stock indices ended their two-day winning streak and closed lower. However, funds did not completely withdraw from the equity market. Semiconductor memory and optical communications bucked the trend and rose sharply. International oil and copper prices continued to rise, and gold recovered most of its losses after the data shock.

US stocks : The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7718.60 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.29% to 26506.99 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51% to 53414.25 points, ending a two-day winning streak for all three major indexes. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bucked the trend, rising 3.37% to 11735.26 points, with memory and optical communications stocks surging. Tesla fell 5.92%, and Lululemon fell 17.38%.

A-shares : The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.79%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.78%, and the STAR Market 50 Index fell more than 2%; more than 2,900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges were down, with a total turnover of 2.05 trillion yuan; pork-related stocks surged, liquor stocks strengthened, while semiconductors and computing hardware stocks plummeted, with Inspur Information hitting the daily limit down.

Hong Kong stocks : The Hang Seng Index rose 1.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.27%; heavyweight tech stocks generally rose, with Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and Xiaomi all gaining. Real estate stocks were active, with Sunac, Longfor, Country Garden, and Vanke all rising.

European stocks were mixed, with the German DAX up 0.17%, the French CAC40 down 0.03%, the UK FTSE 100 flat, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.19%.

Japan and South Korea : The Nikkei 225 rose 1.26% to 65,020.94 points, and the South Korean KOSPI rose 1.64% to 6,687.21 points.

Crude oil : WTI crude oil rose 0.20% to $91.48 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.80% to $96.28 per barrel, with both rising approximately 9% this week; the average retail price of diesel in the United States reached a record high of $5.85 per gallon.

Precious metals : Spot gold fell 0.97% to $4429.29 per ounce, after falling more than 2% to $4365.25 at one point during the session before recovering; spot silver fell 1.23% to $66.14 per ounce.

Industrial Metals : LME copper rose 0.57% to $14,416 per tonne, up $82, continuing its upward trend.

US Treasuries : The 2-year Treasury yield rose 3.4 basis points to 4.3703%, having touched 4.416% intraday, its highest level since January 2025; the 10-year yield was approximately 4.78%.

Foreign Exchange : The US dollar index rose 0.27% to 99.177, reversing its previous decline; the US dollar recovered against the Japanese yen from 155.50 to 156.22; the offshore yuan was trading around 6.72.

Bitcoin : It briefly broke through $82,000 this week, reaching a three-month high, but fell back after the release of the non-farm payroll data on Friday, dropping below $79,000.

News Details

China

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced measures to strengthen the compliance, risk control, and financial internal control systems of private fund managers, clarifying the basic principle of "sellers fulfilling their responsibilities and buyers bearing their own risks." The CSRC has also issued relevant regulations on private fund raising, clarifying fundraising methods, detailing prohibited behaviors, improving the criteria for identifying qualified investors such as asset size, income level, and investment experience, strengthening the requirements for penetrating supervision, and reinforcing the suitability management and risk disclosure obligations of private fund managers and sales institutions.

From 2880 minutes to 5 minutes, Changan Automobile has empowered its frontline employees to create AI tools . AI has already been integrated into Changan Automobile's R&D, production, and procurement processes. Clearly defined, repetitive tasks have seen the most efficiency improvements, prompting business personnel to develop their own tools. As applications expand, the company still needs to address organizational operations, system connectivity, data access control, and cost management to truly implement AI tools effectively.

overseas

Non-farm payrolls skyrocketed! The US added 162,000 jobs in August, far exceeding the median Wall Street forecast of 55,000 and surpassing the upper limit of all institutional predictions, marking the second-highest monthly increase this year. The data for the previous two months were revised upwards: June's figure was revised from 20,000 to 31,000, and July's figure was revised significantly upwards from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000, totaling 55,000 higher than the previous figures for the two months. After the data release, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a September rate hike rose from 49.4% to 58%.

- How does Wall Street view the August non-farm payrolls? Strong employment doesn't end the suspense of a September rate hike; next week's CPI will be "decisive" : BlackRock's Rosenberg believes the data confirms the existing understanding of the job market, and the real pressure has returned to inflation. If next week's CPI continues to show progress in inflation, the Fed will remain on hold.

- "New Fed Watch": August jobs data clears obstacles to rate hikes, September rate decision awaits inflation "tone setting" : Timiraos believes that strong employment has removed a key obstacle to a September rate hike, but it does not directly constitute a reason for a rate hike. Ultimately, it still depends on next week's August inflation data.

Tesla's Cybercab has arrived! With no steering wheel or pedals, priced under $30,000, and no children under 13 allowed , Tesla officially added the Cybercab to its self-driving taxi fleet in Austin. This matte gold-painted, butterfly-door, two-seater driverless car has no steering wheel, pedals, or rearview mirrors, a target price of under $30,000, 1102 mm of legroom, and a 572-liter trunk. Currently, 45 vehicles have been registered in Texas. However, the launch event lacked scale targets, production plans, and a timeline, leading Wall Street to widely believe the disclosure fell short of expectations.

- The Cybercab launch event fell short of expectations, and nearly a thousand vehicles are now under safety regulatory scrutiny, causing Tesla's stock price to drop by more than 6% : The NHTSA has launched an investigation into nearly a thousand Cybercabs, focusing on the procedures and technical data that Tesla used to determine that some federal safety standards were not applicable.

- Tesla Cybercab Launch Review: Limited Growth, Advantageous Cost Per Vehicle, Fleet Expansion Remains a Bottleneck : Goldman Sachs believes that if a cost of $20,000 to $30,000 is achieved at scale, the economic advantage per vehicle is obvious, but Barclays points out that the current fleet is less than 100 vehicles, and the software's ability to expand across regions is more critical.

The US Treasury Department's sanctions against Turkish banks directly target Iranian oil monetization channels. President Bessenter has announced further sanctions next week, which experts say is merely "marginal pressure." The Treasury Department accuses Turkish investment bank Golden Global of acting as a key intermediary in Iran's shadow banking network, facilitating the transfer of Iranian oil revenues to Turkey and their conversion into cash and gold. It has added the bank to a "blacklist," effectively severing its ties with the US dollar financial system. Sanctions experts warn this move could provoke Iranian retaliation, and President Bessenter has announced further sanctions next week.

S&P has issued a rare credit warning regarding AI infrastructure: a $7 trillion capital expenditure black hole is looming, raising questions about the debt sustainability of tech giants . An S&P credit report provides a systemic warning to AI cloud giants, stating that the capital expenditures of the six major cloud vendors may exceed $7 trillion by 2030, but none of them have quantified the return on AI investment. The report specifically names Amazon as facing the risk of losing its AA rating, and Oracle, if downgraded, would fall directly into junk status, highlighting the debt sustainability concerns surrounding the massive debt expansion of tech giants.

The world's largest sovereign wealth fund plans to significantly reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds , with Norway's sovereign wealth fund intending to cut approximately $80 billion of its exposure to US Treasuries and shift towards mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This move comes at a time of high US Treasury yields and continued pressure on global bond markets, potentially further fueling market concerns about a collective withdrawal of sovereign wealth funds from US Treasuries.

Trump pressures Walsh to cut interest rates: High interest rates put the US at an "unfair disadvantage," or he will stop trading with deficit countries . Trump posted that the US August jobs data was "very bright," but he again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates significantly, emphasizing that high interest rates put the US at an "unfair disadvantage." Earlier this week, he bluntly stated that discussing interest rate hikes was "utterly absurd."

- Vance publicly called on the Federal Reserve again: interest rates should be cut : Vice President Vance said that cutting interest rates is the "right and responsible" choice to deal with the current inflation and said he "hopes to get help from the Federal Reserve", which directly conflicts with Warsh's position that hinted at raising interest rates.

Canadian employment unexpectedly fell by over 40,000 in August, with only the manufacturing sector recording growth. Expectations for a Bank of Canada interest rate hike cooled . The sharp drop of 41,700 jobs in August marked the first decline since April and was far below market expectations of a 15,000 increase. The financial, insurance, and real estate sectors lost nearly 10,000 jobs, the public sector lost 20,000, and manufacturing was the only sector to record significant growth, adding 22,100 jobs. Following the data release, market expectations for a Bank of Canada interest rate hike cooled significantly, the Canadian dollar weakened, and government bonds rebounded.

The Ternus era has officially begun! Apple is set to launch its largest product wave in history, with foldable iPhones, touchscreen MacBooks, and smart glasses all making their debut . Under the leadership of new CEO Steve Tenus, Apple will embark on its most intensive product launch cycle ever, introducing a series of entirely new products in 2026, 2027, and the coming years, including foldable iPhones, touchscreen MacBooks, AirPods with built-in cameras, smart home hubs with screens, robotic desktop robots, and AR glasses.

-Report: Apple's daily production of foldable iPhones is only "a few hundred" units, and supply may be tight in the early stages of sales : hinge performance and screen flatness are bottleneck problems, and it is doubtful whether the annual target of 8 million to 10 million units can be achieved.

Samsung and Arm join forces to enter the edge AI market! Custom 2nm chips launched, OpenAI potentially a key customer . Samsung Electronics and Arm are collaborating to develop custom edge AI chips based on a 2nm process. Arm provides the technology, while Samsung handles the design and mass production. The end customer is likely to be OpenAI. This project will help Samsung form an integrated "design + manufacturing" solution, enhance its competitiveness in system LSI and wafer foundry collaboration, and expand into the custom AI chip market.

Will South Korea deploy troops to the Strait of Hormuz? The South Korean presidential office stated that the plan is still in the "research and deliberation" stage . South Korea is accelerating its research on deploying troops to the Strait of Hormuz, proposing to send non-combat forces such as maritime patrol aircraft and supply ships, but no decision has been made yet. South Korean media suggests this move may be related to Trump's continued demands for South Korean involvement in Middle Eastern affairs. The deployment still requires approval from the State Council and the National Assembly, and its final implementation remains uncertain.

- Will shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue into next year? Mitsui O.S.K. Lines warns: unlikely to resume before the end of the year : The CEO of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines stated that with the deteriorating situation between the US and Iran, the hope for the Strait of Hormuz to resume normal operations this year has significantly decreased, and the company has no plans to return to shipping routes at present.

Goldman Sachs: Two-thirds of the passage through the Hormuz has been restored, with 5 million barrels of "hidden" shipments per day : Goldman Sachs estimates that oil flow has recovered to 15 to 16 million barrels per day, but visible shipping data shows only about 10 million barrels. The 5 million barrel gap is due to a large number of oil tankers secretly passing through with their AIS systems turned off.

Bessenter predicts that after the Iranian conflict ends, oil prices will fall to $40, and bond yields will follow suit . U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter predicts that the global oil market will be severely oversupplied after the Iranian conflict ends, and oil prices may plummet to $40 to $50 per barrel, leading to a simultaneous decline in bond yields and inflation. He points out that the correlation between current oil prices and interest rates has reached a record high.

- Renewed tensions with Iran have prompted hedge funds to increase their bets on rising oil prices, with long positions reaching their highest level since May : As of the week ending September 1, fund managers increased their net long positions in Brent crude oil by 37,837 contracts to 261,435 contracts, a new high in more than three months.

Strong non-farm payroll data failed to halt the rally: emerging market currencies rose for the 10th consecutive week, marking the longest winning streak since 2007. The appreciation of the yen weakened the dollar, and the decline in US Treasury bonds diverted funds, jointly driving up emerging market assets. Although Friday's strong non-farm payroll data briefly caused volatility, currencies such as the South African rand and Mexican peso quickly recovered their losses. Market focus has now shifted to next week's US CPI. If core inflation falls as expected, the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes is almost a certainty, and the emerging market bull run may continue.

According to industry sources, the global DRAM market size grew by 55.9% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, reaching a record high . CFM Flash Market data shows that the global DRAM market size reached US$147.024 billion in the second quarter, a 55.9% increase quarter-on-quarter, setting a new record. Compared to the first quarter, when the average price of server and PC DRAM more than doubled quarter-on-quarter, the growth rate slowed to the 40% to 50% range in the second quarter. Manufacturers expanded sales of high-value-added products such as server DRAM and HBM, resulting in a significant increase in both volume and price, driving up sales revenue.

Micron's HBM capacity is expected to double by the end of the year, catching up with Samsung and SK Hynix : Micron plans to increase its monthly high-bandwidth memory capacity to about 100,000 wafers by the end of the year, accelerating the mass production of HBM4 12-layer products for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin architecture.

Tokenized Stock Controversy: AMC and Robinhood Clash Publicly, Tearing Apart Regulatory Ambiguity . The CEOs of AMC and Robinhood publicly clashed on the X platform, sparked by Robinhood's unauthorized listing of AMC tokenized stocks. AMC denounced it as a "despicable quasi-fraudulent market," while Robinhood responded dismissively, "What's the problem?" Currently, traditional exchanges such as Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange are also developing tokenized stock plans, but the regulatory boundaries remain unclear.

Citadel is eyeing US shale oil assets! Having previously bid for WildFire but ultimately being outbid in a $4 billion deal , Citadel is now in talks with several private equity firms seeking to acquire US shale oil assets. This reflects the accelerated deployment of physical energy assets by hedge funds and commodity traders, who aim to hedge against oil price and geopolitical risks by controlling production capacity.

According to reports, Mark Zuckerberg privately called Trump in August to express his opposition to a proposal to establish a mandatory AI regulator modeled after the financial industry's FINRA. Currently, the White House is divided on the regulatory path, wavering between a government censorship model similar to FINRA and a voluntary film association rating model, leaving the final policy direction unclear.

Nomura: Bank of Japan May Raise Rates Three Times if Yen Continues to Weaken . Nomura Securities warns that if the yen continues to weaken and approaches the 160 level, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in its next three meetings (September, October, and December), marking the most aggressive tightening pace in decades. Although the baseline forecast remains a quarterly rate hike, if the Takaichi and Sanae governments do not intervene and the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the yen's appreciation potential may be further unlocked.

JPMorgan Chase: A break above 155 for the yen could trigger a concentrated liquidation of short positions, with the appreciation potentially exceeding expectations . JPMorgan Chase estimates that there are still approximately 16 to 17 trillion yen in short positions that have not been closed. If all of these positions are closed, theoretically, the USD/JPY exchange rate could be pushed down to the 142 to 146 range.

Trump downplayed the impact of the war, calling the conflict with Iran a "minor matter," and hinted at a possible strike on Ghosan soon . Trump agreed with Vance's previous statement that the current situation should not be called a "war," and that the US-Iran military conflict is "not a big deal" for the United States. He said the conflict has already caused the deaths of 18 US soldiers, far fewer than the casualties in the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars. He also said that military action against Ghosan "may be taken soon," after he had repeatedly threatened to strike Iran's underground nuclear facility at Ghosan.

Moderna ignites a flame of hope: Has the era of cancer vaccines truly arrived? On August 19th, Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine successfully passed Phase III clinical trials, causing its stock price to surge 177% in a single day, with its market capitalization soaring by $44 billion. This triggered a wave of limit-up moves in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets' biopharmaceutical sectors. Experts point out that the market's preconceived notion of "clinical ineffectiveness" in this field has been shattered, and the clinical pathway for personalized cancer vaccines has been proven viable.

Research indicates that rising storage costs are driving up smartphone costs, with global smartphone prices expected to increase by an average of approximately 15% in 2026. Counterpoint data shows that since 2026, global smartphone retail prices have increased by an average of 15%, with over 40% of models experiencing price increases, and new phone prices being 25% higher than the same period last year. Rising costs of components such as storage continue to squeeze manufacturers' profits. OEMs are controlling costs by adjusting storage and camera configurations, while consumers are extending their replacement cycles and turning to the secondhand market.

Selected Views

Barclays: The market has largely priced in the Fed's hawkish expectations, and soaring oil and European gas prices are pushing up inflation and interest rate risks again, putting global stock markets in a highly sensitive window dominated by macroeconomic factors. The market has already priced in about two-thirds of the expected September rate hike, but if subsequent non-farm payroll and CPI data fall short of expectations, the policy trade may reverse, providing a breather for the stock market; if the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations make progress, European cyclical stocks, especially in the German market, are expected to see a valuation reassessment.

Goldman Sachs: The SDLLMTK index, which measures AI inference pricing, plummeted 29% in August, falling below $1 per million tokens for the first time, and has halved from its peak. Lower pricing, user migration to low-cost open-source models, increased competition, and local inference are structurally eroding the per-token pricing model. The "volume increases, price decreases" gap is undermining the core narrative that "more tokens equal more revenue" and shaking the logic of AI capital expenditure.

Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank: Societe Generale has clearly reaffirmed its bullish stance on gold, believing that the hawkish impact has been digested and the current downside risk is limited; Deutsche Bank confirms that the inflection point for institutional funding has arrived, with hedge funds, asset management institutions, and banks taking turns buying, but positions remain low. Leading asset management firms such as Amundi, Robeco, and Fidelity have increased their gold holdings during the pullback, and structural factors such as central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization provide bottom support for gold prices.

Deutsche Bank: The US is betting on AI on an unprecedented scale, while blockchain asset tokenization is reshaping the global accessibility of the dollar. The cost is that the dollar is transforming from a traditional safe-haven anchor into a high-risk AI bet. Once the business model is proven false, capital flight will be imminent, directly impacting the dollar. Tokenization accelerates capital inflows when things are going well, but it will also accelerate capital outflows when things are going badly.

Today's Focus

China

Negotiations for adjustments to the National Reimbursement Drug List will be held in 2026.

overseas

The Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period for external communications ahead of its September policy meeting.

Saudi Aramco announced its official crude oil prices.

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