Wall Street News Morning FM-Radio | February 14, 2026
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Market Overview
US CPI eases inflation concerns, boosting rate cut expectations, but tech giants are suppressing US stock gains. Nasdaq turned to a loss during the session with its fourth consecutive decline, S&P barely ended its three-day losing streak but still posted its largest weekly drop in nearly three months. Chip and software indices rebounded. Well-guided Applied Materials surged over 8%, AppLovin jumped 6.5%, but Nvidia fell more than 2%. Of the “Tech Magnificent Seven,” only Tesla closed up, Amazon dropped for nine consecutive days, Apple fell over 8% in a week, AI panic caused, Charles Schwab to accumulate a nearly 11% weekly drop, AppLovin lost nearly 4%, CBRE commercial real estate dropped 16%, S&P Real Estate Services Index dropped 14%, marking the largest weekly decline in five years. L’Oréal’s sales in Q4 disappointed, leading to nearly a 5% drop in European stocks.
After US CPI was announced, US Treasuries prices rebounded during trading, with the two-year yield nearing its lowest point in three years; the US dollar index turned downward, falling over 100 points, offshore RMB narrowed most losses below 6.91; cryptocurrencies rebounded rapidly, Bitcoin neared $70,000, rising almost 6% from daily lows.
After US CPI, gold and silver rebounded rapidly, gold stood above $5000, rising over 2% intraday, spot silver jumped over 5%; London tin fell nearly 6% for the week, London copper departed from two-week lows but still declined for two weeks. Media reports OPEC likely to resume production increase in April, oil prices fell nearly 1% but later recovered, leaving behind a week’s low, yet still seeing two weeks of declines.
In the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite dropped below 4100 points, semiconductors bucked the trend to rise, precious metals and shipping adjusted, Hang Seng fell 1%, Zhipu surged over 20% to a new high, Shanghai silver fell sharply by 7%.
Key News
China
ChinaBoastful Start for Credit: January new social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, new RMB loans 4.71 trillion yuan, M2 increased 9.0% year-on-year.
China January 70 Cities Housing Prices: The overall month-on-month declines in first, second, third-tier cities narrowed, but year-on-year declines continued to expand.
Financial Regulatory Administration jointly held talks with Market Regulatory Administration and People’s Bank of Chinawith six transportation platform companies.
Internet Platform Anti-Monopoly Compliance Guidelinesissued, specifying eight new monopoly risks such as "choose one of two" and "lowest price across the network".
Chinacompleted first rocket stage marine recovery task.
Meituan forecast: massive net loss over 23 billion yuan in 2025, losses will continue in Q1.
DeepSeek may drop another bombshell during Spring Festival, official disclosed testing new model structure.
MiniMaxreleased M2.5 model: 1 dollar per hour running cost, just 1/20 GPT-5 price, performance matches Claude Opus.
Overseas
US January CPI year-on-year growth slowed to 2.4%, below expectations. Core CPI year-on-year growth hit lowest in nearly five years; Wall Street believes inflation worries have paused, traders estimate 50% chance for three rate cuts this year.
Bessent: Inflation may return to 2% in 2026, tariff policy may have room for "narrowing".
US Supreme CourtFeb 20 will announce a new batch of opinions, may decide the fate of Trump’s tariffs.
Reportedly, USis considering partial removal of aluminum and steel tariffs, London aluminum fell more than 1% in the short term.
Trump confirms US military will send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.
New round of Russia-US-Ukraine talks will be held next Tuesday to Wednesday in Geneva, Switzerland.
Trumpsays he will visit Venezuela, US Energy Secretary: Venezuela's oil revenue exceeds $1 billion, US will transfer funds to Treasury accounts.
SpaceX speeds toward IPO: reportedly plans to use dual-class share structure, considering debt restructuring after merging with xAI.
Market Recap
US and European Stocks: S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6836.17, Dow up 0.10% at 49500.93, Nasdaq down 0.22% at 22546.671, with weekly losses of 1.39%, 1.23%, and 2.1% respectively. European STOXX 600 down 0.13% at 617.70, weekly gain of 0.09%.
A shares: Shanghai Composite down 1.26% at 4082.07. Shenzhen Component down 1.28% at 14100.19. ChiNext down 1.57% at 3275.96.
Bond Market: At the close, US 10-year Treasury yield at about 4.05%, down about 5bps intraday, down about 16bps on the week; 2-year yield at about 3.41%, down about 5bps intraday, down about 9bps on the week.
Commodities: WTI March crude futures up 0.08% at $62.89/barrel, down about 1% for the week. Brent April crude up 0.34% at $67.75/barrel, down about 0.4% for the week. COMEX April gold up 1.98% at $5046.3/oz, up about 1.3% for the week. COMEX March silver up 3.02% at $77.964/oz, up about 1.4% for the week. LME tin down nearly 6% at $46702/ton, down 0.03% for the week. LME copper up about 0.05% at $12881/ton, down about 0.9% for the week.
Key News Details
Global Headlines
China
China Credit Boastful Start: January new social financing 7.22 trillion yuan, new RMB loans 4.71 trillion yuan, M2 year-on-year growth 9.0%. In January 2026, incremental social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than last year. End-January 2026, outstanding social financing was 449.11 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year. M2-M1 scissors difference was 4.1 percentage points, narrowing further compared to December 2025.
China January 70 Cities Housing Prices: Overall month-on-month declines in first, second, third-tier cities narrowed, year-on-year declines continued to widen. First-tier cities’ second-hand homes saw month-on-month declines improve, second and third-tier cities also narrowed declines, but year-on-year all widened; for new homes, month-on-month declines narrowed, year-on-year declines widened, first-tier year-on-year down 2.1%, Shanghai bucked the trend up 4.2%, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen slid 2.4%, 5.3%, and 4.9% respectively.
Financial Regulatory Administration jointly held talks with market regulatory and central bank with six travel platform companies. The financial regulator, market regulator, and People’s Bank held talks with Ctrip, Gaode Map, Tongcheng, Fliggy, Umetrip, and Qunar. Issues in their loan business cooperation were addressed: they must regulate marketing, not use misleading promotional language.
China completed first rocket stage marine recovery mission. On Feb 11, Long March 10 rocket did low-altitude demo flight and landed in the sea. Feb 13, recovery team successfully completed marine recovery, China's first rocket sea search mission.
Meituan forecast: over 23 billion yuan net loss in 2025, losses to continue in Q1. Meituan’s profit warning: 2025 will turn from profit to net loss about 23.3–24.3 billion yuan. Profitable “core local business” segment’s profits collapsed: 2024 operating profit about 52.41 billion yuan, but 2025 expected operating loss 6.8-7 billion yuan.
DeepSeek may drop another bombshell during Spring Festival; official disclosed new model structure is being tested. DeepSeek web/APP is testing new long-text model structure, supports 1M context. API still V3.2, supports only 128K context. DeepSeek may again launch explosive model this Spring Festival, echoing last year’s phenomenon.
MiniMax releases M2.5 model: $1/hour to run, only 1/10–1/20 GPT-5 price, performance matches Claude Opus. M2.5 achieves breakthroughs in performance and cost. Price only 1/10–1/20 mainstream models. Performance matches Claude Opus, won Multi-SWE-Bench coding test, 37% faster than last generation. Uses native Agent reinforcement learning, 30% tasks now done autonomously by AI, code generation in programming scenarios hits 80%.
Overseas
US January CPI slowed to 2.4%, below forecasts, core CPI year-on-year growth at lowest in nearly five years. Excluding food and energy, core CPI up 0.3% month-on-month, one of the largest monthly increases since August. Core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, in line with expectations, slower than December's 2.6%.
- Wall Street reviews January CPI: inflation concerns paused, traders see 50% chance for three rate cuts this year. Firms typically raise prices at year’s start, leading to higher January CPI, but this January’s core CPI growth is the lowest since March 2021. Despite housing prices rising, goods like apparel and computers show signs of tariff impact, but gasoline, beef, eggs fell—deflation seen dominating coming months. Goldman Sachs expects Fed’s normalization rate cuts depend on jobs improving; still forecast two cuts this year, first in June. Traders project CPI peaking midyear then falling, matching expectations for first rate cut in June/July.
Bessent: Inflation may return to 2% in 2026, tariff policy may have room for “narrowing”. US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects inflation to fall back to 2% by mid-2026, hints Trump government may narrow metal tariffs to ease imported inflation. On the Fed, he stresses advancing Walsh’s nomination hearing is crucial for policy continuity, expects it to proceed despite investigation into Powell.
US Supreme Court Feb 20 will announce new batch of opinions, may decide Trump’s tariff fate. Reviewing legality of Trump imposing tariffs under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Economists estimate tariffs under IEEPA may exceed $170 billion by Feb 20. Veteran legal journalists note tariff ruling is a major statement on presidential power, unlikely to be unanimous; though expedited, ruling could come quickly or as late as June.
London aluminum plunges! US reportedly considering partial removal of aluminum and steel tariffs. To ease inflation and mid-term election pressures, Trump plans to shrink steel/aluminum tariffs, exempt some products, stop expanding tariffs. This recognizes tariff costs are mainly borne by US consumers. London aluminum futures dropped over 1%. Republican Party previously opposed tariffs against Canada, showing White House trade protectionism facing political backlash.
Trump confirms US will send second aircraft carrier to Middle East. Feb 13, Trump confirms US will send second carrier group to Middle East to pressure Iran into agreement.
New round of Russia-US-Ukraine talks to be held next Tuesday-Wednesday in Geneva, Switzerland. Xinhua citing Russian media reports talks scheduled for Feb 17-18 in Geneva.
Trump says he will visit Venezuela, US Energy Secretary: Venezuela's oil income exceeds $1 billion, US transfers funds to Treasury account. US alters transfer path for Venezuelan oil sales income, now directly to Treasury, funds over $1 billion. Previous channel via Qatar to avoid creditor seizures. Not recognizing interim president Rodriguez led to legal troubles. US eased sanctions, issued license, but PDVSA only sells oil to licensed firms, cautious bank financing and complex terms limit export expansion. January export up to 800,000 barrels/day, still below last year’s average.
Amazon, “highest capital expenditure,” dropped nine consecutive days, fell into bear market, investors are voting against Mag 7. Amazon officially crossed bear market threshold Thursday, fell over 23% from recent peak. Microsoft was first Mag 7 member in bear market (Jan 29), Meta is just 2.3% from bear market threshold. Investors lack faith in AI spending’s return. Amazon plans $200B capital spend in 2026.
SpaceX in IPO sprint: plans dual-class shares, considering debt restructuring after xAI merger. Dual-class shares grant certain shareholders extra voting power, Musk could control company even with minority stake. Musk’s consortium reviewing financing to restructure SpaceX-xAI debt, after accumulating $18B debt via X (formerly Twitter) and xAI.
Research Highlights
US stocks extremely fragile; SaaS, PE, insurance, property, logistics “collapse in turns”, Goldman traders "exhausted and shocked". AI disruption cascades through US stock sectors like dominoes, logistics latest heavy hit, finance/medical also under pressure, tech sector wiped out. Breadth deteriorates, 350 S&P 500 stocks fell Friday, Goldman trader notes over 40 S&P stocks showed >3 SD abnormal volatility, highest level in memory, investors lost interest in bottom fishing.
BofA Hartnett: Big asset rotation underway, US policy spurring "everything but USD" trades! BofA strategist Hartnett sees global funds fleeing USD assets, structural rotation underway. US stocks and tech giants no longer sole safe haven, funds shift to EM, commodities, international stocks. Current trade: "buy anything but USD", anticipating “new world order”. Worsening fiscal/debt key for shorting USD; weak USD may become the norm.
AI models mass upgrade, domestic computing demand surges, IDC set for new boom? BofA notes China AI at crucial point: video generation models push computing needs up orders of magnitude; cloud/model API prices rise (Zhipu AI up 30%, UCloud hikes), price war ends, sellers regain pricing power. IDC rental prices bounce, data center leaders revalued, AI inference sparks China IDC new prosperity cycle.
Tesla’s profit margin is a fraction of peers, how long does the “US Tech Seven Giant” label last? Tesla now trails other giants financially: operating profit below 5% (peers 11%-60%), only member with profit decline. Capex doubles to $20B in 2026, will lead to negative free cash flow for first time, peers still generate billions in positive cash flow. Musk may need SpaceX IPO funding to pursue his AI ambitions.
Was Tencent wrongly dumped? Bernstein argues Tencent’s share drop mainly due to slow AI model progress and game industry AI disruption fears. Tencent trades at 14–15x 2027 expected PE, near pandemic/game approval shutdown lows. While chat bot development lags, steady AI investment returns come from ads and gaming, current valuation reflects excessive pessimism.
Domestic Macro
CSRC serious investigation! Tianfeng Securities, Contemporary Group receive maximum fines, Ai Luming, Yu Lei banned from markets for life. Tianfeng Securities illegally provided financing for its largest shareholder Contemporary Group from 2020–2022, failed to disclose related-party deals, both violated securities laws. Hubei CSRC proposes total fines of 25 million yuan, responsible individuals fined 34.8 million yuan, actual controller Ai Luming and then-chairman Yu Lei, VP/cfo Xu Xin permanently barred from securities markets.
Shenzhen: No illegal gold pre-pricing, leveraged trades allowed; strictly banned statements like "gold will surge", "buying gold makes big money". Shenzhen cracks down on gold market chaos! Bans unauthorized gold pre-pricing, leverage, deferred trading; stops "principal guaranteed" illegal fundraising; bans delegated investment, cracks down on false advertising. Bans individuals from illegal gold trades, makes illegal gold trading app development illegal. No financial institutions allowed gold business without approval.
CIC: Balance function and profit, strengthen support for key areas, better show “national team” financial role. CIC says it will pursue correct achievement mindset, balance function and profitability, strengthen core functions and competitiveness by integrating into the broader picture. Play synergistic advantages, support key areas better, highlight "national team" role. Open market investing effort focuses on optimizing strategies, boosting proprietary investments in key areas, continually improving investment management.
Domestic Companies
“Kuaishou Keling vs Byte Ji Meng”—who's stronger? Goldman: no "winner takes all" but AI will reshape entertainment industry value distribution. Goldman expects AI video generation is not a winner-take-all field, both Kuaishou Keling and Byte Ji Meng will benefit from market expansion. Global AI video generation market will grow from $3B in 2025 to $29B in 2030, tenfold increase. AI will reshape the entertainment value chain, shifting value upstream to IP design, distribution platforms with higher added value.
Overseas Companies
Microsoft execs stoke AI panic: most white-collar jobs could be fully automated “within 12–18 months”. Microsoft AI head issues “most radical warning”: lawyers, accountants and most white-collar jobs may be replaced by AI in 18 months, market disagrees on pace. WSJ notes Mercor hires lots of white-collar staff to train big models—their own successors. Anthropic CEO lists six major AI risks: mass unemployment, AI with nation-scale power etc.
Software stocks see biggest short-selling wave since 2010, Goldman exclaims: “nowhere to hide”. Most severe short-sale wave in a decade hits US software stocks; Morgan Stanley data shows short positions at 2010 highs, market in panic mode. AI replacing white-collar jobs causes sector shock, defensive sectors outperform, tech giants flag. Goldman trading boss Callahan says many growth-tech stocks now oversold, wants to discuss which were excessively discounted.
Report: Nvidia may relax HBM4 specs due to Samsung, SK Hynix facing capacity and yield issues. Nvidia may be forced to relax HBM4 technical specs, procure both top chips and lower specs to assure Rubin platform mass production. Samsung leads certification but yields only 60%, SK Hynix facing 11Gbps performance hurdles. Dual-track sourcing now certain, capacity stability preferred over ultimate performance. Whether relaxed specs deliver stable supply will directly determine vendor share and Nvidia's next-gen AI chips rollout speed.
Pinterest Q4 guidance weak, analysts worry about AI disruption, premarket plummets 20%, closes down nearly 17%! Pinterest stock plunged due to disappointing earnings and guidance, market fears AI integration will erase its platform value at "discovery" and "purchase" stages—even if AI stalls, core use case is threatened. Despite monthly users rising to 619M, “tangible AI bearish narrative” dominates, market mass selloff for AI-disruption risk companies, panic spreads.
Anthropic speeds up IPO: hires veteran, could list this year. Anthropic hires Chris Liddell (U.S. auto IPO leader, ex-Trump admin) to prep for IPO. Company just raised $30B, valued at $380B, backed by GIC and Coatue. Liddell joins Netflix founder Hastings on board, sets path for IPO as soon as end of year.
Today's Key News Preview
Doubao Large Model 2.0 releases.
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