Wall Street "shifts completely"! Multiple investment banks warn of a "prolonged energy crisis caused by war with Iran"

```

The U.S. blockade of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz and the strike on Kharg Island are pushing the global energy market toward the most severe supply crisis in decades.

Major Wall Street institutions such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and RBC Capital Markets collectively issued warnings this week, predicting that the supply gap will widen sharply in the coming days and that oil prices face further substantial upside risks.

Meanwhile, shortages of refined products like diesel and jet fuel have begun to spread to the real economy, causing energy prices to soar across Asia, Europe, and North America. Since the U.S. launched military action, Brent crude oil has risen by about 40%, breaking through the $100 per barrel mark.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of the 13th, U.S. President Trump posted on social media stating that the U.S. military had carried out "intense airstrikes" on military targets at Iran’s oil export hub, Kharg Island. He also warned that if Iran obstructs any vessel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would destroy the island's oil facilities. Meanwhile, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a tough statement on Thursday, declaring that the strait blockade would continue and warning the world to prepare for oil prices at $200 per barrel.

Supply gap widening rapidly, refined fuel shortage spreading to the real economy

JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva noted in a research report that by the end of next week, crude oil supply cuts are expected to reach almost 12 million barrels per day, “and the gap will be highly visible in the physical market.” She also warned that the market is facing severe shortages of diesel, jet fuel, LPG, and naphtha, “these products simply cannot be consumed because they do not exist.”

Goldman Sachs estimates that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from over 19 million barrels per day at normal levels to about 600,000 barrels per day—close to a fraction of total U.S. production. This narrow waterway typically carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

On Friday, U.S. gasoline retail prices climbed to $3.63 per gallon, marking the 13th straight trading day of increases, approaching the key psychological level of $4 per gallon.

Investment banks raise oil price forecasts, poised to challenge historic highs

RBC Capital Markets stated that oil prices are expected to surpass the $128 per barrel peak set in the weeks after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and may even challenge the historic record of around $147 set in 2008. Helima Croft, RBC’s Global Head of Commodity Strategy, said that RBC is revising its forecast for the duration of the Iran war and its impact on oil prices, and that the conflict may "last until next spring."

The war has entered its third week. Trump stated that Washington has "unlimited ammunition" and can "fight Iran forever." On the Iranian side, strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure have continued, with an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, an Iranian drone attacked Dubai’s financial district, triggering market panic, while multiple European countries simultaneously sought talks with Tehran to promote the reopening of the strait.

Daleep Singh, former Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics under the Biden administration, stated, “The new Supreme Leader clearly has no intention to negotiate until he extracts a heavier price to rebuild deterrence.”

Emergency measures cannot conceal market anxiety, with Asia bearing the brunt

The Trump administration has already taken multiple steps to try to stabilize the market, including proposing naval escorts and emergency insurance for tankers traversing the strait, easing some sanctions on Russian oil, and coordinating with other G7 nations to release strategic oil reserves in record amounts. However, these measures have yet to effectively curb pessimistic market expectations.

Asian countries, highly dependent on energy imports via the Strait of Hormuz, have been hit particularly hard. Australia announced on Friday it would release domestic fuel reserves to cope with potential supply shortages and panic buying.

Jim Krane of Rice University’s Baker Institute stated, "A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was supposed to be a doomsday scenario for the oil market, and now things could get even worse." Ben Cahill, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned, "Higher energy prices will start to affect consumer behavior, with people cutting back on air travel, driving, and other discretionary spending."

Risk Disclaimer and Limitation of LiabilityThe market carries risks, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personalized investment advice and does not take into account the unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their individual circumstances. Investment decisions are at your own risk. ```