Wallstreetcn Breakfast FM-Radio | February 3, 2026

Wallstreetcn Breakfast FM-Radio | February 3, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

U.S. manufacturing activity expands above expectations, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded, with the Dow rising over 1% to a one-week high. Apple rose around 4% leading tech giants, Google rebounded nearly 2% to a record high, while Nvidia, caught in OpenAI investment doubts, fell nearly 3%; the chip index rebounded nearly 2%, SanDisk jumped over 15%, AMD up 4%; Disney, with weak guidance this quarter, closed down over 7%; UAMY (U.S. Antimony Corp) jumped over 7%; Bitcoin plunged heavily, dragging major holder Strategy down nearly 7%; Palantir surged after hours on strong results and guidance, at one point up over 8%; NXP's auto revenue missed, NXP fell over 6% after hours.

Following the U.S. manufacturing index release, U.S. Treasury yields hit daily highs; the dollar index surged to a one-week high.

Offshore Renminbi rose above 6.94 intraday, approaching a three-year high. Cryptos turned positive intraday, with Bitcoin rebounding over 6% after dropping below $75,000, and Ethereum up over 10% from daily low.

Metals plunged intraday, gold dropped below $4,500, hitting a three-week low, London spot gold at one point down 10%, spot silver over 10%, but both later halved losses; London tin closed down 10%, three straight losses, London nickel down over 6% to a four-week low, London copper down over 2% to over a one-week low. Crude oil fell for two days to a one-week low, down over 4%, largest drop in seven months, U.S. natural gas fell over 25%.

Asia session: Shanghai Composite lost over 2%, barely held 4,000, gold/silver and non-ferrous metals all limit down, liquor bucked trend to rise, Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3%, chips and semiconductors slumped.

Top News

China

China January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high50.3, selling prices increased for first time in 14 months.

Li Qiang: Use AI tech to reshape the whole manufacturing chain and coordinate new energy system buildout.

International

U.S. January ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 52.6far exceeded expectations, highest since February 2022.

U.S. government shutdown caused key data “delays” again; Tuesday's December JOLTS Job Openings report and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report rescheduled.

Trump: U.S.-India reached trade deal, Indian reciprocal tariffs cut from 25%down to 18%, Modi agreed to halt Russian oil purchases.

Reports: Trumpplans $12 billion investment to stockpile key minerals, U.S. Antimony stock up over 7%.

Hassett: Nominate Walsh as Fed Chair is “right person at the right time,” Fed’s balance sheet should be “streamlined as much as possible.”

U.S. Pres. Envoy reportedly met Iran FM on Friday, Iran stresses core demand in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks: removal of sanctions.

Oraclelaunches $25 billion bond sale, plans to raise funds in eight tranches, go all-in on cloud infra.

SpaceX memo confirms xAI merger; TeslaGen 3 humanoid robot Optimus debuts in Q1, aims annual output of 1 million units; Musk: Major lithium battery breakthrough, Teslaachieves scaled dry electrode battery production.

Palantir Q4 revenue beat, up 70% YoY, 2026 full-year guidance far beats, up over 8% after hours.

NXP Q4 revenue and Q1 guidance both slightly beat, but Q4 auto business lagged, stock down over 6% after hours.

Media: OpenAI unhappy with Nvidia chips’ inference performance, started seeking alternatives last year.

Market Close

European and U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 up 0.54% to 6976.44; Dow up 1.05% to 49407.66; Nasdaq up 0.56% to 23592.107. Europe STOXX 600 up 1.03% to 617.31.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed down 2.48% at 4015.75. Shenzhen Component down 2.69% at 13824.35. ChiNext down 2.46% to 3264.11. CSI 300 down 2.13% at 4605.98.

Bonds: At the close, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.28%, up about 4bps; 2-year yield at 3.57%, up about 5bps.

Commodities: WTI March crude futures down 4.71% to $62.14/barrel. Brent April crude down 4.36% to $66.30. COMEX April gold down 1.95% to $4652.6/oz. COMEX March silver down 1.94% to $77.009/oz. LME tin down about 10.3% to $46,591/ton. LME nickel down about 6.3% to $16,827/ton. LME copper down about 2.1% to $12,892/ton.

Top News Details

Global Highlights

China

China January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.3, selling prices up for first time in 14 months. China's January PMI hit a three-month high, with positives in new orders (including exports), employment up for the first time in three months; but business confidence fell to a nine-month low, input costs saw the strongest four-month surge, forcing sales prices to rise after 14 months.

Li Qiang: Use AI to reshape the full manufacturing chain, coordinate new energy system development. Li Qiang said to base on scale advantages and focus on tech innovation, to drive product iteration & upgrades, add R&D input, strengthen supply quality, optimize regional energy use, connect pipeline networks, improve heating methods, speed up green low-carbon R&D including turning industrial waste heat into clean sources.

International

U.S. January ISM Manufacturing Index hits new high since Feb 2022! U.S. PMI jumped from 47.9 to 52.6, beating 48.5 forecast. Driven mainly by strong new orders/output. Jobs index hit a one-year high but still in contraction. Prices paid index reached a four-month high.

Nonfarm Payroll Report delayed again,U.S. shutdown causes key data to “be late” again. On Feb 2, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said, due to partial gov't shutdown, the scheduled release of January nonfarm payrolls for the 6th is delayed; new date will be set after funding resumes.

Trump: U.S.-India trade deal, Indian tariffs lowered, Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil. Tariffs cut from 25% to 18%, India to reduce tariffs/barriers, buy >$500bn U.S. energy, possible Venezuelan oil, confirmed purchases from India officials, U.S. will drop 25% tariff.

Reports: Trump plans $12bn stockpile of key minerals. Trump to build private stockpile of strategic minerals (such as gallium, cobalt, etc.), backed by $10bn in loans from Export-Import Bank, plus private investment. USAR & UAMY stocks surged then pulled back; UAMY closed up 7%.

Hassett: Nomination of Walsh as Fed Chair is “right person at the right time,” Fed balance sheet should be “as lean as possible”. Hassett praised Walsh for being "data-driven and independent," hinting at objective monetary policy; warned if sudden changes occur and inflation soars, rates can't go as low as 1%.

U.S. Special Envoy reportedly met Iran FM Friday, Iran stresses core nuclear negotiating demand: end sanctions. Iranian media: President ordered nuclear talks, high-level U.S.-Iran talks likely soon. U.S. media: Special Envoy Weitzkopf met Iran FM about "possible nuclear deal." U.S. Sec. of Defense said if Iran refuses talks, U.S. "prepared for action.” Iran FM stressed Iran seeks fair, reciprocal result, will not make unilateral concessions without economic release.

Oracle launches $25bn bond issue, to raise in eight tranches, go all-out in cloud infra. Oracle started the largest ever $50bn fundraising, with an initial $25bn bond issue led by GS, Citi, etc., all to be issued at once by 2026, aiming to fund “heavy AI cloud infra bet.” Oracle surged 4% at open, then declined.

Musk’s SpaceX confirmed in memo: merging with xAI.

Tesla Gen-3 humanoid robot Optimus Q1 debut, goal 1-million units/year; Model S/X to halt in Q2 to make way for mass robots. Third-gen Optimus is Tesla’s first mass-production humanoid, goal of 1m/year. Musk said will halt Model S/X production in Q2 of 2026, repurposing Fremont lines for Optimus.

Musk: Breakthrough in lithium batteries, Tesla achieves scaled dry electrode production. Musk confirmed Tesla achieved large-scale dry electrode process, calling it a “major advance.” Technology eliminates toxic solvents and expensive drying steps, lowers costs and energy, improves density and life, solidifying Tesla's cost/efficiency edge in EVs and energy storage.

Palantir Q4 revenue up 70% YoY, 2026 guidance beats expectations, up over 8% after hours.

NXP Q4 revenue and guidance slightly beat, but auto business lagged, stock down over 6% after hours.

Media: OpenAI dissatisfied with Nvidia chips’ inference performance, started seeking alternatives last year.

Research Highlights

Japan bets on fiscal expansion, U.S. faces midterm test—how will elections reshape global markets? 2026 global “super election year” to see Japan’s pre-election fiscal expansion raise U.S./Japan debt market pressure; U.S. midterm elections critical for Trump, cost-of-living issues drive polls. From Latin rightward swing to Europe/frontier market policy shifts, political uncertainty is reshaping global investment logic and risk preference.

Fed & Treasury to see “new contract”? Walsh urges balance sheet reduction, liquidity may be the biggest hurdle. Trump’s Fed Chair nominee Kevin Walsh advocates for massive shrinkage of the $6.6tn Fed balance sheet and a new agreement with the Treasury to clarify independence/prevent monetization. Treasury Sec. Besant holds similar view. But historic attempts led to market panic, higher rates, and banks’ reliance on ample reserves. Markets expect Walsh to proceed cautiously and coordinate closely with Treasury.

Gold nears first key support. Gold's sharp correction puts price near key support—$4,600/oz (±$50), holding this level vital to the bull structure. Major risk: with $20 trillion profit positions, even a 5% sell-off wipes out global physical demand. Thus, Citi et al. turn cautious medium-term, expect gold to fall back to $4,000 by 2027.

Gold’s weakest moment? Just 5% profit-taking enough to offset global physical demand. Citi warns: $1 trillion hot money lifted the gold bull, but now faces the “Sword of Damocles.” $20 trillion profit positions, just 5% selling offsetting global demand. As geopolitical risk fades and Fed’s independence confirmed, Citi is bearish on 2026 H2, expects a 20% fall to $4,000 by 2027.

Epic gold/silver volatility—is it time to bottom-fish? Consensus: Don’t blindly bottom-fish now. Long-term bull logic is unchanged, but short-term selloff remains, volatility extreme. Analysts at Huatai et al. advise patience, wait for volatility decline (e.g., gold IV to drop from 35%), watch for key support ($4,700/oz) to stabilize, avoid “catching knives in an avalanche.”

What's the biggest AI narrative shift in 2026? Industry focus moving from training to inference, which brings real investment returns. BofA sees 2026 as the year inference becomes the primary workload, expected to comprise up to 75% of $1.2tn AI capex by 2030.

Domestic Macro

Ten agencies jointly promote low-altitude economy standards. Recently, ten agencies published “Low-altitude Economy Standards System Guide (2025),” to boost chain-wide high quality development. Focuses on aircraft, infrastructure, air traffic, safety, applications, builds four-dimensional standards supply system; target—basic system by 2027, 300+ advanced standards by 2030 for secure growth.

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu visits China, delegated by Putin for strategic communication. Global Times: Wang Yi met Shoigu, stressing China & Russia responsibility to build more just global system, should keep close communication, support mutual core interests. Shoigu: Delegated by Putin for strategic talks, Russia upholds One China policy, opposes hostile moves on Taiwan, and blocks Japan’s “remilitarization.”

Domestic Companies/Industries

Maotai's strong sales beat expectations, liquor sector surges: is a decade bottom forming? Liquor’s rally driven by Maotai’s price recovery and reforms. Citic Securities sees valuation at historic lows, strong bottom allocation value; with property easing and positive PPI, sector may see “decade bottom” opportunity before/after Lunar New Year.

International Macro

Bitcoin drops below $80,000—new round of "trust crisis". Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below $76,000, longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Market depth dropped, downside didn’t trigger buying, regulatory positives couldn’t offset weak demand. AI and precious metals attract funds, reducing Bitcoin’s role as a risk hedge/speculation target.

  • Bitcoin keeps crashing, MSTR forced selling in focus. MicroStrategy and 11 spot ETFs hold 10% supply, average cost $85,360, current paper loss ~$7bn. MSTR’s cost averaged ~$76,000, cushion down to 3%, but raised preferred dividends to 11.25% to attract funds. Jim Bianco warns “old money narrative failed,” without new buyers, institutions stuck at high price may become steady selling pressure.

Commodity crash adds to woes, Indonesian stocks plunge 6%. Jakarta Index dropped 6%, mining/energy stocks biggest drag. As a top commodity exporter, Indonesia’s market is sensitive to commodity prices, making confidence repair harder for regulators.

International Companies

Disney Q1 FY2026 revenue up 5%, net profits down 6%, entertainment/sports drag. Disney Q1 revenue up 5% to $25.98bn, net profit down 6% to $2.4bn. Growth led by experiences (theme park/cruise) now >70% of profits; entertainment/sports profit dropped 35% & 23%, due to content costs, weak ads, subs pressure. Cash flow shrank from taxes/content spend. Co. maintains strong shareholder returns, focuses on renewal risks and legal challenges.

Industries/Concepts

1. Low-altitude economy | Market Regulation with Air Traffic Agency, NDRC, and ten other agencies issued "Low-altitude Economy Standards Guide (2025)," focused on low-altitude aircraft, infra, air traffic management, safety, and applications, merging tech standards, management norms, domestic/international standards, mandatory/recommended, basic/scenario standards for a "four-dimensional fusion" supply.

Commentary: CICC sees low-altitude economy as a long-chain, highly integrative economic mode, strong driving force for socioeconomic growth. CCID predicts 2023 China low-altitude econ at ~RMB 506bn, expected to reach trillions by 2026. As policies/plans improve and implement, China’s market to grow rapidly.

2. Niacinamide | Public data show that niacinamide prices keep rising. On Feb 2, niacinamide quoted at RMB 39.5/kg, up ~14.5% vs early Jan 2026.

Commentary: Research says niacinamide’s nutritional/enhancement and functionality drive wide use in food, medicine, cosmetics; widely added to grains, dairy, etc. for fortification; in cosmetics, acclaimed for anti-aging/whitening, used in serums, creams; in medicine, use in treatment/wellness always expanding. With aging population, health/beauty demand rises, market size keeps growing.

3. AI Applications | Beijing News: On Feb 2, Alibaba’s Qianwen app announced RMB 3bn for “Spring Festival treat plan,” going live Feb 6. During festival, Qianwen joins Taobao, Fliggy, Damai, Hema, Tmall supermarket, Alipay, etc., offering free treats for all nationwide. Tencent launched Spring Festival “red envelope” event on Yuanbao App on Feb 1, offering users RMB 1bn to share, with max single envelope RMB 10,000. Prior, Baidu announced from Jan 26-Mar 12, users who use Wenxin Assistant on Baidu App can win up to RMB 50mn in cash, single prize up to RMB 10,000.

Commentary: Domestic internet giants bet big on the holiday, vying for consumer AI app attention, marking new phase of AI adoption. By using AI red envelopes, giants attract mass new user touch points and drive higher frequency product use, pushing nationwide AI penetration, expected to accelerate commercialization. Recommend tracking AI application investment opportunities, progress at major internet firms, those with strategic or equity alliances, and IDC/AI hardware beneficiaries.

4. Controlled Nuclear Fusion | Commercial fusion company Energy Singularity announced on Feb 2: the Honghuang 70 high-temp superconducting tokamak set a new breakthrough, achieving 1337 seconds of steady-state long-pulse plasma in experiment #5755, enabled by ongoing AI-based plasma feedback optimizations. This marks the global first for a commercial company-built fusion device to hit thousand-second-level plasma current long pulse.

Commentary: Fusion fuels are abundant and clean, called the key to “energy freedom.” Controlled fusion is the “man-made sun.” From breakthrough “steady-state 100 million deg” by EAST to private firms’ progress in high-temp superconductors/boron fusion, fusion is accelerating toward engineering/commercialization. Since 2026, fusion is entering a critical decade, with trillion-level energy market chapter opening.

5. Semiconductors | Nanjing University official site: Nanjing University-Suzhou Lab team led by Wang Xinran/Li Taotao and SEU’s Wang Jinlan developed new oxygen-assisted MOCVD (oxy-MOCVD) technology overcoming 2D semiconductor mass-production kinetic bottleneck. Their innovative growth design boosts precursor reaction rate 1000x. The team's “alchemy to crystal” tech published in 2025 together built a full roadmap of “substrate engineering + kinetics,” key support for 2D semiconductor mass production, giving China core edge in next-gen chips.

Commentary: Analysts say the global challenge as Moore's Law nears physical limits makes atomically thin 2D semiconductors the winning breakthrough. 2D semiconductors’ key edge: atomic thickness. Can break silicon's limits, enable new post-Moore chips. 2D-silicon hybrid flash memory tech may revolutionize storage, making universal memory replace layered architectures, giving AI/big data faster, lower-energy storage, making 2D flash the AI era’s standard.

Today's Key Preview

SHFE: Adjusts silver futures limit to 17%, hedged holding margin to 18%.

Australia policy interest rate.

France January CPI.

Fed Governor Bowman to speak.

AMD, Pfizer to announce earnings.

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Risk Warning & DisclaimerMarkets carry risk, investments must be prudent. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider an individual user's goals, financial situation or needs. Users should consider if views/opinions herein suit their own situation. Invest at own risk. ```