WallstreetCN Breakfast FM-Radio | July 11, 2026

WallstreetCN Breakfast FM-Radio | July 11, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Tech stocks continue to support U.S. stocks, the Nasdaq has risen for three consecutive days, the S&P closed at a new one-month high, both rising for the second week in a row, while the Dow had its first weekly fall in five weeks; SK hynix debuts in U.S. market up over 10%; Meta rose 6%, rising for two days in a row after launching a paid large language model, up nearly 15% for the week; Nvidia closed up 4%, leading chip giants; "The first stablecoin stock" Circle rose 5%.

Trump rekindled U.S.-Iran negotiation hopes, posting online agreeing to continue talks with Iran; U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit a new daily high; the dollar index briefly turned lower.

The Japanese finance minister encouraged pension funds to increase domestic asset allocation, and Japanese stocks, bonds, and the yen all rose.

Offshore RMB broke through 6.78 intraday for the first time in over two weeks. Bitcoin broke through $64,000 intraday, reaching a two-week high, up nearly 3% from the daily low.

After Trump’s post, crude oil jumped over 1% in the short term to a daily high, then fell back; gold hit a new daily low, down over 1%, then pared most losses. For the week, crude oil ended four weeks of decline, Brent rose over 4%. New York copper hit a one-week high, ending a three-week losing streak.

During Asia trading, A-shares fell across the board in the afternoon, the ChiNext index fell over 4%, commercial space stocks hit daily limit up, chip and semiconductor stocks fell, Hong Kong AI model "duopoly" plummeted.

Headlines

China

State Council executive meeting: Strengthen frontier technology breakthroughs, accelerate new generation communications networks and computing power networks.

China ushers in the era of reusable rockets, Long March 10B's maiden flight succeeds, achieving the world's first sea-based net capture recovery.

Report: Doubao AI intelligent device phone plans to launch and go on sale during 2026 WAIC, with 80,000–100,000 units already in stock.

MiniMax CEO Yan Junjie issued a letter to all staff: will no longer receive salary, personally will allocate 4% of shares for team incentives, and 1% of shares for open source development.

Overseas

Trump said the U.S. has agreed to resume talks with Iran; US media said another round of talks may be held next week, Iranian media denied; Iranian Foreign Ministry: never requested talks with the U.S., agrees to mediator visit to Iran.

Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report: Inflation heated up further this spring, AI infrastructure has become a new inflation-driving factor, reiterates commitment to stable prices.

Japanese Finance Minister encourages GPIF pension fund to increase investment in domestic financial assets, Japanese stocks, bonds, and the yen all rose.

SK hynix sets record for largest foreign IPO in U.S., U.S. debut closed up 13%; SK Group Chairman: if share price stabilizes, will consider issuing more U.S. shares, expanding investment in U.S., launching new “memory as a service” model; SK hynix CEO: The most serious memory chip shortage will hit in 2027, supply shortage may last beyond 2030.

Meta internal memo revealed: Long-term supply contracts signed with SanDisk, Samsung, Sumitomo Electric, computing power will double by 2027.

Apple sues OpenAI for stealing trade secrets, asking for destruction of confidential materials and redesign of AI hardware; OpenAI responds: Not interested in other companies' trade secrets.

Market Closing Report

US & European stocks: S&P 500 rose 0.42% to 7575.39, up 1.23% for the week; Dow rose 0.29% to 52637.01, down 0.50% for the week; Nasdaq up 0.29% to 26281.607, up 1.74% for the week. Europe’s STOXX 600 up 0.04% to 641.10, down 1.79% for the week.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite down 1.00% to 3996.16. Shenzhen Component down 2.29% to 15046.67. ChiNext down 4.37% to 3842.73.

Bond Market: At the close, US 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.56%, up about 1 bp on the day, 8 bps for the week; 2-year yield was about 4.21%, up about 3 bps on the day, up about 7 bps for the week.

Commodities: WTI August crude closed down 0.93% at $71.41/barrel, up 3.96% for the week. Brent September crude closed down 0.38% at $76.01/barrel, up 5.39% for the week. COMEX July gold closed down 0.64% at $4104.1/oz, down 0.21% for the week. COMEX July silver down 0.94% at $59.809/oz, down 1.38% for the week. COMEX July copper up 0.3% at $6.2335/lb, up 1.95% for the week.

Headline Details

Global Highlights

China

State Council meeting: Strengthen cutting-edge tech research, accelerate new generation communication and computing network construction. The meeting pointed out the need to systematically promote Digital China, appropriately advance digital infrastructure, accelerate new generation communication and computing networks, improve digital intelligence, and fully empower economic and social development. Also to strengthen frontier tech breakthroughs, enhance evaluation and control capabilities for new security risks, and maintain a strict security baseline.

China achieves milestone in reusable rockets! Long March 10B’s maiden flight succeeds, realizes world’s first sea-based net capture recovery. China Aerospace makes history again! On July 10, 2026, the Long March 10B launch vehicle’s maiden flight succeeded, achieving first-in-the-world "sea-based net capture" for booster recovery, opening a new technology path independent of SpaceX. Reusing less than five times shows cost advantages; with reuse above 10 times, single launch cost could drop 80%. This cost-reduction revolution is just starting, facing a vast market of 28,000 domestic satellites.

Unitree robot performs surgery; appears in Nature. The research team used the Unitree Robotics G1 humanoid robot commonly found in university labs to hold laparoscopic instruments and remotely perform laparoscopic cholecystectomy on two live pigs. This is the world’s first standard minimally invasive surgery performed in a living organism by a humanoid robot.

  • World’s first: humanoid robot enters the operating room, doctors control to complete live surgery. The world’s first clinical pre-trial of humanoid robot surgery succeeded. UC San Diego team used two “Surgie” robots to complete human-robot collaboration and robot-team cholecystectomy on live animals. The aim is to alleviate the shortage of surgeons, validate the feasibility of humanoid robots as flexible, low-cost assistants in the OR, and in future, serve remote and special environments.

Report: Doubao AI intelligent phone planned to debut for sale at 2026 WAIC, with 80–100k units already in stock. Insiders think the release of products such as the Doubao AI intelligent phone may reshape competition logic in the mobile industry: the focus is shifting from pure software/hardware specs to the practical experience of on-device AI large models. For Chinese phone makers, this could mark a key turning point for industrial upgrading, and domestic brand market share is expected to keep rising.

MiniMax CEO Yan Junjie issued all-staff letter: No more salary, will allocate 4% shares for team incentives, 1% to support open-source development. In response to the stock slump after IPO lock-up expired, MiniMax founder Yan Junjie announced he would forgo pay until the company realizes AGI, and allocate 4% of his shares to employee incentives, acting as a "founder bet" to steady morale. Meanwhile, the company completed HK$16 billion in new financing, with top sovereign funds participating. MiniMax is also developing a 2.7-trillion-parameter mega model, M3 Pro, far larger than any current flagship model.

Overseas

Trump says the U.S. has agreed to resume talks with Iran, US media says new round may be next week, Iran media denies. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Never requested talks with US, agrees to mediation visit to Iran. US media says a Qatari negotiator, after coordinating with the US, went to Iran to meet officials to create conditions for restarting US-Iran negotiations; diplomats say both US and Iran want to return to the Memorandum of Understanding framework; US officials say Trump’s strategy is to pause military action after strikes to prevent escalation and allow diplomatic mediation.

Fed semiannual monetary policy report: Inflation further heated this spring, AI infrastructure is a new inflation driver, reiterates price stability commitment. Report warns that inflation picked up further this spring; tariff effects persist, Middle East tensions drive up energy prices, and surging demand from AI infrastructure contribute to inflation pressure. Also reiterates price stability and commitment to use all available tools for dual mandate.

Japanese Finance Minister encourages GPIF to increase domestic financial asset investment, Japanese stocks, bonds, and yen all rose. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama promises to reduce debt-to-GDP to ensure market trust and supports more Japanese asset investment by GPIF. After comments, 10-year JGB yields fell over 10 bps, Nikkei 225 rose over 2.2%, the yen jumped 0.4%. Daiwa Securities says lower yields directly support the stock market, and increasing domestic allocation by GPIF may support the yen.

AI boom continues! SK hynix sets record for largest foreign IPO in U.S., U.S. debut closes up 13%. SK hynix ADR opened up 14%, once up close to 19%. This IPO issued 180 million ADRs, raised $26.5B, breaking Alibaba’s record for overseas company US IPOs. The three cornerstone investors together were allocated $5B ADRs.

Meta internal memo leaked: long-term supply agreements with SanDisk, Samsung, Sumitomo Electric, computing power to double by 2027. A leaked Meta memo caused a stir: company plans to deploy 7GW of AI compute in 2026, double to 14GW by 2027, annual capex will hit $145B, and it has signed long-term supply deals with SanDisk, Samsung, and Sumitomo Electric.

Apple sues OpenAI for trade secret theft, demands destruction of confidential info and redesign of AI hardware. Apple accuses OpenAI of deliberately encouraging Apple staff to leak unreleased product info for its own hardware development. Apple demands all involved materials be destroyed, and OpenAI redesign its products to ensure no Apple tech is included. OpenAI chief hardware officer Tang Tan, Apple's former VP of product design, is a key defendant. OpenAI replied it has no interest in other companies' trade secrets.

Research Highlights

When will this round of AI peak? Six high-prosperity sector cases from the past 20 years: Stock price tops lead fundamental tops by about 1–1.5 years; high-prosperity sectors often show "M-shaped top". Guosen Securities finds that in history, stocks top 1–1.5 years ahead of their fundamentals—"profits still coming in" does NOT mean stocks haven’t peaked. High-prosperity sectors generally show M-shaped peaks, with fading marginal good news as a warning sign. The fate of this round’s AI compute rally hinges on tech giants’ capex: total expansion ongoing but Microsoft & Meta’s second derivatives have turned negative—a key warning.

"Everyone's all-in long!" BofA: Watch Japan—the "canary" warning global crash. BofA reports the bull-bear index is still at an extremely optimistic 9.5. Current market consensus rests on "four won'ts": No US hard landing, no Fed hikes, no AI capex cut, no Dem midterm sweep. Japanese bank stocks are the "canary"—rising JGB yields/falling banks could signal the start of global risk asset adjustment.

Goldman in-depth: Who will be the long-term winner in China's foundation model industry? In foundation models, Zhipu and DeepSeek viewed as long-term most competitive; ByteDance leads multimodality. Goldman says China’s models have shifted from "low cost" to "high intelligence"—open source models such as Zhipu GLM, DeepSeek nearly match global closed-source leaders, and, with cost, open ecosystem, and overseas, can drive high AI growth in China.

SemiAnalysis interview: Memory can still double, CPU is just a supporting actor, CPO delayed till 2029. Founder Dylan Patel says Anthropic is making profits, ARR $50B+, disproving ROI doubts. Hardware: RAM is up 4x, will rise another 2–3x, structural shortage from inference models will persist for years; CPU demand is merely historical catch-up, just a mini-cycle. CPO (co-packaged optics) mass production postponed to end-2028, copper cable dividend unexpectedly extends; power bottlenecks push data centers to self-build "behind-meter" power.

SemiAnalysis: Meta AI likely to surpass Google within half a year, forming a new trinity with OpenAI and Anthropic. SemiAnalysis expects Meta’s MSL could overtake Google in next 6 months, putting Meta into frontier AI top league and changing the competition to Meta/OpenAI/Anthropic. If Zuckerberg maintains current investment pace, Google could be permanently pushed out of the AI mega-player club.

Bullish on space data centers—Goldman sharply raises LEO satellite install forecast: to 300,000 by 2031, 400,000 in optimistic case. Goldman raised 2031 global low-orbit satellite install forecast from 42,000 to 305,000, up 634%. This was due to factoring in space data centers for the first time. Goldman expects, from 2029, space data centers will overtake satellite internet as the main LEO satellite driver, making up nearly 80% of new installs by 2031.

Chinese Companies

Duan Yongping buys Pop Mart again! Holdings break 100 million shares, says "Don't care about short-term volatility, just look at the next 20 years". HKEX data shows famous investor Duan Yongping further increased his Pop Mart stake from 91.27M to 102M shares, raising his stake from 6.85% to 7.65%. He said, "I don’t care what others think, or about short-term profit swings; I just think about what will happen in 10 or 20 years. My hypothesis comes entirely from my own experience and view of this world—no guarantee it's right."

Major memory module maker reveals: RAM will keep rising. ADATA chairman Chen Libai says Q3 2026 DRAM contract price will rise 20–30%, NAND flash 35–40%. TrendForce expects Q3 DRAM up 13–18%, NAND up 10–15%; UBS even more bullish, expects DRAM to surge 32%, with tight supply to last to 1H2028.

Overseas Macro

Five working groups—Waller’s “united front”, aiming for rate cut? Fed Governor Waller’s policy framework reform enters substantive stage—five working groups launched July 9, gathering ex-BOE governor, Nobel Prize winners, and Marc Andreessen. Meanwhile, BEA quietly changed the PCE calculation method; Goldman, UBS warn inflation readings will systematically be understated. CICC previews a clear three-step roadmap: personnel changes, framework overhaul, dovish shift, with a rate cut by Q4 its end goal.

S&P 500 "abandoned"! US retail inflows plunge to post-pandemic low: not buying blue chips, just betting on hot spots. For week to July 10, retail net inflow to US stocks was just $13B, the lowest since the pandemic, buy/sell close to balanced. Indicates switch from buying the index to chasing themes. AAII survey shows more bears than bulls, sentiment cooling. Analysts say retail investors are not leaving, just waiting for tech sector to correct before entering.

9.4 million barrel daily gap! IEA warns fresh US-Iran clash could upend next year's oil surplus forecast. IEA says global supply rose 4.1M bpd in June as Strait of Hormuz reopened, but gap vs. pre-war levels still high at 9.4M bpd; durable peace deal is “necessary condition”; crude appears ample, refined product remains tight, driving refining margins to four-year highs; expects global oil demand to drop 1M bpd this year, the first annual drop in six years since the pandemic.

Foreign Companies

OpenAI “#2 executive” leaves, another big loss before IPO. Ahead of IPO, OpenAI’s "#2" Fidji Simo resigns due to worsening neuroimmune illness, her role split into three. At the same time, ChatGPT user growth plateaued, Anthropic overtook in enterprise, the two now locked in a price war. Management turbulence plus business pressure casts a shadow over the world’s hottest AI IPO prospects.

Elon Musk unveils SpaceX's latest blueprint: first AI satellite launch next year, Mars landing in five years, ten years to put tens of thousands on the moon. Musk plans to launch first AI satellites next year, mass deployment in two years, to break Earth's land/energy bottleneck. Also, first batch of astronauts may land on the Moon in 2–3 years, moon base in 10 years.

Today's News Preview

2026 "Robots+" Innovation Development Conference will be held.

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