Wallstreetcn Breakfast FM-Radio | June 20, 2026
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Huajian Morning Voice
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Market Overview
The Israel-Lebanon situation is stirring market nerves. After news of an Israel ceasefire, US stock futures narrowed most losses, pan-European stock indices briefly turned gains, mining stocks fell more than 2% and led declines in Europe.
The Dollar Index, which has hit a one-year high for days, hit a daily low. The yen ended a five-day fall, temporarily departing from nearly two-year lows. Offshore RMB approached 6.80 intraday, a four-week new low.
Brent crude oil dropped over 1%. Gold and silver narrowed most losses, spot gold, which once fell more than 2% intraday, ended down less than 0.7%. After Israel struck Hezbollah again, Brent crude briefly turned up over 1%, but was still down nearly 8% for the week.
UK political worries intensified, UK gilts led bond declines in Europe.
In Asia hours, US-Iran-Switzerland talks changed, Korean stocks closed down 0.1%, India IT stocks plunged, Nasdaq futures fell 1%, US Dollar Index rose above 101.
Special Recommendation
Top News
China
Netizens ask "When will China's large models reach Fable level?", Musk replied "maybe Q1 next year", Zhipu CEO Tang Jie: "Won't take that long."
Overseas
Israel reportedly reached a ceasefire with Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran confirmed postponement of talks with the US, Trump pressured "last 60 days", the White House signaled preparation to start negotiations as soon as possible. Iran denied closing the Strait of Hormuz, currently waives transit fees but may charge insurance fees in future. US military said more than 20 ships have passed through the strait. Vance criticized Israel: wake up to reality, national security issues cannot all be solved by killing.
Yen fell to 161, nearly 40-year low, Japanese finance minister reiterated "will take bold action".
UK internal strife escalates! Burnham won by-election overwhelmingly, succession probability rises above 90%, cabinet ministers reportedly asked Starmer to set a stepping down time.
Trump keeps a close eye on AI: Saw Anthropic as a "national security threat" one week ago, still does not rule out intervention when necessary.
Google and Microsoft jointly launched a new protocol, traditional tech giants use standard war to block Anthropic and OpenAI.
Chen Liwu, after taking over Intel, gave his first podcast interview: our goal is "10x in 5-10 years", betting on advanced packaging, glass substrates, and synthetic diamonds.
Market Wrap
Equities: A-shares and US stocks closed. Europe STOXX 600 Index closed down 0.24% at 635.61 points, up 0.38% for the week.
Bonds: German 10-year government bond yield rose 5.6 basis points to 2.985%, down 1 basis point for the week. UK 10-year government bond yield rose 8.5 basis points to 4.842%, up 0.6 basis points for the week.
News Details
Global Highlights
China
Netizens ask "When will China's large models reach Fable level?" Musk replied "maybe Q1 next year", Zhipu CEO Tang Jie: "Won't take that long". After Zhipu AI released GLM-5.2, researcher Teortaxes predicted it would take 7 months for Chinese models to catch up with Fable-level models. GLM-5.2 scored 74.4 on the FrontierSWE benchmark, only about 1 percentage point behind the Opus 4.8. Domestic open source models are reshaping the global AI competition landscape thanks to performance, cost, and controllability advantages.
"Not just because you want to invest, Liang Wenfeng will take your money." DeepSeek raises 51 billion yuan, why did he choose Tencent, CATL, NetEase, JD? Many want to invest in DeepSeek, but Liang Wenfeng prioritized industrial synergy for his investors. State-owned investors analyzed, Tencent, JD, NetEase invested for AI strategy synergy; CATL invested for early positioning in "computing power & energy synergy" as needed for photovoltaic storage. Some analysts pointed out, this open financing is perhaps due to DeepSeek realizing it's hard to keep up with the global AI computing power "arms race" with only its own funds, requiring expanded capital expenditures to diversify R&D risk.
Overseas
Israel reportedly reached a ceasefire with Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran confirmed postponement of talks with the US, Trump pressured "last 60 days", the White House signaled preparation to start negotiations as soon as possible. Multiple media reported Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on Friday; US media said both sides acted within an hour after ceasefire took effect; Lebanese media reported Israel conducted airstrikes on southern Lebanon after "agreeing to ceasefire." US-Iran talks mediator to meet in Egypt on the 21st. Iran’s foreign ministry accused the US of direct responsibility for the Lebanon situation, said plans to host talks in coming days are being discussed. The White House said the US delegation is ready to depart at the earliest feasible time. Trump said the talks are initiated by Iran, not the US being cornered, and that he could stop Israel from attacking Lebanon because Israel "will do as I say."
Iran denied closing the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily waives transit fees but may charge insurance fee in future, US military says over 20 ships have passed through the strait. The agency managing the Strait of Hormuz announced that the US-Iran talks grant 60 days of fee-free transit. Starting this Friday, all passing ships must submit applications at least 48 hours in advance to Iran; all vessels must purchase mandatory insurance, currently free, but may be charged later.
US-Iran talks postponed. Switzerland stated that planned talks involving the US, Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan have been postponed. "Switzerland remains willing to facilitate these talks. Preparations related to Mount Pilatus will continue."
Iran reportedly postponed the Swiss talks due to Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon, Vance criticized Israel: wake up to reality, national security issues cannot all be solved by killing. Trump said he expects "full ceasefire in all fronts." Vance stated Trump is the only world leader with genuine empathy for Israel and called out ultra-right Israeli cabinet: As a country of only 9 million people, you can't expect to solve every national security issue only by killing.
80 million barrels of oil ready to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 80 million barrels of non-sanctioned crude on 40 supertankers in the Persian Gulf are poised to transit, some ships already attempted passage, which may ease Asian refineries supply and inventory pressure. But industry organizations warn of major safety risks such as mines, so full reopening remains uncertain.
Oil price returns to 'pre-Iran war level', is the market overreacting? The US-Iran framework agreement and strait reopening pushed Brent crude below $77. Analysts warn financial market anticipation of resumption outpaces actual supply: global inventories continue to drop, triple high freight costs and cautious ship owners make logistics a bottleneck. Geopolitical premium already priced out, but actual supply recovery still takes time.
Waller hawkish, USD 'turning point' arrives? Waller sent a strong hawkish signal, market quickly reassessed dollar outlook: Dollar index posted biggest two-day gain in three months, options market saw large dollar call bets. Traders began betting Fed might hike rates as soon as July, appeal of dollar assets recovered, euro, yen etc. major currencies came under pressure.
- Yen fell to 161, almost 40-year low, finance minister reiterates "will take bold action". Yen hit near 40-year lows, the Japanese government repeatedly issued verbal warnings and intervened with more than $70 billion, but still faces structural pressures from wide US-Japan rate gaps, carry trades and reflation policy. Markets are betting Tokyo may suddenly intervene, but analysts believe as long as US rates stay high, yen weakness is hard to fundamentally reverse.
UK infighting escalates! Burnham won by-election overwhelmingly, succession probability over 90%, cabinet ministers reportedly ask Starmer to set stepping down time. UK media said cabinet ministers urged Starmer to step down: "Your time is up"; several ministers asked him to set a timeline for leaving. Polymarket’s prediction market shows probability of a new PM this year is only 3.5%.
Trump keeps a close eye on AI: Saw Anthropic as a "national security threat" one week ago, still does not rule out intervention when necessary. When asked if he considered Anthropic a threat to US security, Trump said not now, maybe a week ago. He said the company responded quickly after the US government expressed concerns, and behaved "very responsibly"; he will not shut down the company but is not sure if emergency intervention under legal powers will out of necessity be used.
Google and Microsoft jointly launched new protocol, traditional tech giants use standards war to block Anthropic and OpenAI. Google, Microsoft and other traditional tech giants launched the "Agent Resource Discovery" (ARD) protocol, aiming to make their products the unified entry for enterprise AI, using standards to block Anthropic and OpenAI. This directly conflicts with the latter’s strategy to make Claude and ChatGPT as independent entry points, highlighting intense competition for enterprise AI ecosystem leadership. Whether ARD will be widely adopted remains to be seen.
Up 37% in a week after listing! P/S ratio as high as 39x, SpaceX is now "more expensive" than any S&P 500 stock. SpaceX’s first week closing price was $185, up 37% from IPO price of $135, with total market cap at $2.4 trillion. Using estimated P/S ratio for 2027 of 39.2x, valuation surpasses all S&P 500 components. Analyst target prices diverge from $250 to $401.
Chen Liwu’s first podcast interview after taking over Intel: Our goal is "10x in 5-10 years", betting on advanced packaging, glass substrates, and synthetic diamonds. Intel CEO Chen Liwu set a target to achieve 10x returns in 5-10 years, focusing on EMIB advanced packaging, glass substrates, and synthetic diamonds for systematically reworking the technology roadmap to break physical limits. Agent AI boom is driving strong CPU demand; foundry business will focus on yield and trust, and co-building the Terafab project with Musk. True potential of Intel expected to be fully unlocked after 2030.
- Appointed former SK Hynix CEO to lead packaging business, Intel shares surged 10% to new high Thursday. Intel accelerated its foundry restructuring and AI chip push. Appointed former SK Hynix CEO Seok-Hee Lee to head advanced packaging, reporting directly to CEO Chen Liwu; same day Apple confirmed its collaboration with Intel to design and manufacture chips in the USA. Dual good news sent shares up 10% to record highs. Advanced packaging is now an independent business unit, EMIB-T and HBI technologies are moving towards mass production.
Accenture shares plummeted 18% to nearly a decade low, AI disruption and Middle East unrest impose double pressure. Middle East unrest dragged down Accenture’s sales in the region and caused corporate decision-making delays, plus new orders declined. Accenture lowered its full-year revenue guidance, shares plunged 18% Thursday. Rapid advancement in AI tools also prompted deep investor doubts about the consulting giant’s core business model and transformation prospects.
Research Highlights
Goldman warns US stocks: Geopolitical momentum stalls, CTA downward asymmetric risks emerge. Goldman’s One-Delta trading desk pointed out multiple risks are accumulating: substantive US-Iran nuclear talks stalled, oil’s geopolitical premium not fully priced in, market is pricing for physical oil but not fully discounts lack of trust and deteriorating US-Iran momentum. Meanwhile, CTA downward asymmetric scenario formed, Fed policy uncertainty and rising bond volatility combine, internal market structural risks should not be overlooked.
Waller’s "hawkish debut", Goldman lowers gold price target, "If rate hikes happen this year, gold will fall further". Goldman lowered 2026 year-end gold price target to $4,900, recently turned "tactically cautious". Warns that if there are two rate hikes this autumn, gold price could drop to $4,440; but strong structural buying by global central banks still provides core support, and medium-term geopolitical risks may push gold above $6,000.
SemiAnalysis: Half of US data centers in 2026 to be canceled? It's an "AI-coded" false alarm. SemiAnalysis pointed out panic stems from AI tools mass grabbing unverified GW-level project press releases, then generating dramatic conclusions. Early speculative projects were mistaken as part of the statistics, but underlying capacity is stable, adjustment forecast only 1%. Delays exist locally but are normal for infrastructure, concentrated in unsupported early projects, not indicative of sector collapse. Market sentiment amplified by three types of invalid noise, rational viewing shows the capacity curve is far from a cliff.
Domestic Macro
Guangdong services blueprint released: targets 11 trillion yuan added value, computing network, 6G and AI to be three strategic pillars. The plan states, by 2030, services added value in Guangdong will exceed 11 trillion yuan, via digitization, standardization, integration, internationalization ('fourizations'), pushing industrial-level services higher and consumption-level services up in quality. The plan takes computing network, 6G, and AI as three strategic pillars, speeds up Greater Bay Area's computing hub, lays out for 6G and satellite internet, promotes AI application everywhere and anytime, and systematically deploys financial, logistics, culture and tourism, and other fields, aiming to build a modern, high-efficiency services sector.
Domestic Companies
Zimbabwe lithium producers jointly applied to postpone export ban, currently only Huayou Cobalt built lithium sulfate line. The president of the Lithium Producers Association said June 18, the association petitioned the minerals minister, permanent secretary, and Zimbabwe Minerals Marketing Corp for more time, proposing to delay the ban on exporting concentrate from January 2027 by about five months. Rukweza said among the seven major lithium producers, only Huayou Cobalt’s lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe is completed and shipping; Bikita mine under China Mineral Resources and Kamativi mine under Sichuan Yahua Group's lithium sulfate projects are still under construction, state-owned Sandawana mine's processing plan is still at feasibility study stage.
Overseas Macro
Energy costs drive inflation pressure! Korea’s May PPI up 8.5% YoY, hits nearly four-year high. Energy shocks and semiconductor boom drive Korea’s upstream inflation. As price rise passes to consumption, hawkish consensus within Korea’s central bank is rapidly expanding. Rate hike storm may be brewing, investors need to beware tightening risk.
Overseas Companies
From "Token race" to "Token throttle": monthly per capita cost $7,500, sky-high bills force tech giants to curb AI usage. Corporate AI spending shifted from "max consumption" to "max restriction", giants are setting limits for AI and agent tools to control runaway costs. This budget control trend is sparking debates about cost vs productivity, and benefiting infra providers like Microsoft, Databricks offering cost optimization, gateways, and model routers.
High school graduates can now join SK Hynix R&D, does AI era still require degrees?. SK Hynix announced new employee recruitment cancels college-degree requirement, R&D posts are open to high school and junior college grads. To better screen talent, SK Hynix created an AI assessment system: dynamically generating customized questions to remotely assess real abilities—how to solve problems under real pressure, values, fit with corporate culture. As Jensen Huang said, in the AI era, don't be obsessed with what subject your child chooses to study; what you learn is less important than what you are capable of.
Kalshi annual revenue tops $2 billion, up three times since November, preliminary IPO talks with investment banks begun. Thanks to transactions from major sports events, prediction market platform Kalshi's annual revenue topped $2 billion, up three times from last November. The company expects to list as early as late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi is expanding institutional business but faces competition, regulatory lawsuits, and executive vacancies.
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