Wallstreetcn Breakfast FM-Radio | June 30, 2026

Wallstreetcn Breakfast FM-Radio | June 30, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Tech stocks drive US market rebound, S&P and Nasdaq end five-day losing streak, S&P up over 1%, Nasdaq up over 2%, Dow closes at record high; Tesla leads tech giants rising 8.5%; on its first day as Dow component, Google up nearly 5% and Nvidia up over 1%, both reversing five-day losses; SpaceX, to join Nasdaq 100 next week, up over 7%; chip index up nearly 4%, Western Digital up over 10%, Marvell up over 4%; Supermicro down over 8%.

US Treasury yields fluctuate slightly, 10-year yield near lowest in over a month. Dollar index continues to fall from over a year highs; Yen hits near 40-year low, dollar/yen nears 162; Bitcoin climbs above $60,000 intraday, up over 3% from daily low.

After mutual strikes between US and Iran, oil rebounds from lows since before the conflict, WTI recovers $70 level, up nearly 3% intraday. Gold, silver, copper, aluminum end two-day gains, gold down over 2%, silver down nearly 3% intraday. London aluminum down nearly 3%, four-month low.

Asia session: Shanghai composite up over 1%, STAR 50 index surges over 4% to new high, semiconductors and innovative drugs boom, Hang Seng Tech index up over 3%, internet stocks rebound collectively.

Key News

China

People's Bank of China launches first 300 billion overnight reverse repo operation to address cross-quarter liquidity pressure at mid-year end.

State Council: Increase efforts to achieve AI innovation breakthroughs and accelerate tackling critical technologies and large-scale intelligent computing cluster construction.

Foreign Ministry responds to listing some Japanese entities under export controls: The move aims to firmly curb Japan's new militarism, does not affect normal China-Japan trade.

DeepSeek V4 scheduled for mid-July, will introduce peak/off-peak API pricing, twice the regular price during peak hours.

International

US-Iran reportedly agree to stop mutual attacks, Trump says US and Iran will meet Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, Iran denies and says no negotiation plans with US in coming days, not yet at final agreement stage, stresses ships must pass Hormuz Strait via "Iran route"; Israeli defense minister warns Iran not to attack Israel, says war could resume as soon as tomorrow.

Putin: Russia is at a crucial moment, West tries to destabilize Russian domestic politics.

US Supreme Court rules Cook to remain Fed governor temporarily, Trump says will ensure she does not influence major monetary policy decisions. Key US Supreme Court ruling: expands presidential dismissal power over federal independent agencies, Fed excluded.

White House economic advisor jobs data preview? Hassett: This week's jobs report will be strong again, current reasons for rate hikes are insufficient.

US will modify Fed's favored inflation index PCE price calculation method, Wall Street: aim is to "lower" core inflation, risk of manipulation.

South Korea announces largest domestic industrial investment plan ever, DRAM output to double in five years, Samsung, SK Hynix will invest over 48 trillion won combined, each to build two new chip plants, covering HBM, data centers to humanoid robots.

Report: iPhone 18 will see major price increase, Pro and Pro Max may rise by $200, Standard 18 to debut next spring, memory may increase to 9GB.

Market Recap

US/Europe stocks: S&P 500 up 1.18% to 7440.43; Dow up 0.59% to 52182.74; Nasdaq up 2.07% to 25820.144. European STOXX 600 up 0.04% to 636.11.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 1.16% to 4073.90. Shenzhen up 0.19% to 15812.87. ChiNext up 0.54% to 4216.70.

Bonds: At bond market close, US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.37%, flat to last Friday; 2-year yield around 4.10%, up ~1 bp on day.

Commodities: WTI August crude up 2.2%, $70.75/barrel. Brent August crude up 1.61%, $73.15/barrel. COMEX July gold down 1.4%, $4022.3/oz. COMEX July silver down 1.77%, $58.175/oz. COMEX July copper down 0.76%, $6.0975/lb. LME copper down ~0.6%, $13278/ton. LME aluminum down ~2.9%, $3088/ton.

Details of Key News

Global Highlights

China

PBOC launches first 300 billion overnight reverse repo. In addition to the new overnight reverse repo, the central bank also announced 157.5 billion 7-day reverse repo, addressing cross-quarter liquidity pressure at mid-year. This is both a precise short-term response ("peak shaving, valley filling") and a key move in monetary policy framework transition—overnight reverse repo upgraded from temporary tool to routine, paired with 7-day maturity, improving short-end rate control.

State Council: Increase efforts for AI innovation breakthroughs, accelerate critical technology research and large-scale intelligent computing cluster construction. The meeting stressed deep implementation of "AI+" action, leveraging China's complete industrial system and rich application scenarios, speeding up large-scale commercial uptake of smart products/services. Must secure AI safety baseline, refine tech ethics/testing rules, build dynamic and tiered safety regulation, strengthen international governance of AI.

Foreign Ministry on listing Japanese entities under export control: firmly curb Japan's new militarism. "We hope Japan returns to right path, corrects misconduct, genuinely reflects and returns to right track." FM spokesman Guo Jiakun said, China's listing targets only a few Japanese entities/measures, focused on dual-use items, does not affect normal trade. Lawful Japanese entities need not worry.

DeepSeek V4 set for mid-July, peak-off-peak API pricing to go live. DeepSeek V4 formal version will adjust API pricing, introduce peak pricing mechanism. API peak price = 2x regular price; peak hours are daily 9am-12pm, 2pm-6pm.

International

Uncertain US-Iran talks: Trump says US and Iran to meet Tuesday in Qatar, Iran denies, Israeli defense minister says war with Iran may restart tomorrow.

  • Iran Foreign Ministry: no planned talks with US in coming days; Iran delegation in Doha to follow up memo implementation, unrelated to US Qatar visits; not at final agreement stage. Iran deputy FM emphasizes ships must follow "Iran route" in Hormuz. Iranian military says strait de-mining is solely by Iran.
  • Israeli defense minister says IDF ready for independent action on Iran, two scenarios: Trump says talks end, seeks to rekindle war; Iran attacks Israel; IDF won't withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarmed.
  • Report: US and Iran agree to stop mutual attacks, to meet in Qatar this Tuesday. US officials say both sides agree to cease attacks, plan talks in Doha June 30, focused on Hormuz Strait dispute. Ceasefire only lasted 11 days before new crisis, after conflicting memo interpretation and "hotline" not launched as planned causing new clashes. Both sides and mediators have not issued formal statements, further uncertainty remains.

Putin: Russia is at a critical moment, West aims to destabilize Russian domestic politics! At United Russia Party Congress, Putin signals: politically, West cannot defeat Russia on battlefield or strategically; militarily warns deeper Ukrainian strikes will provoke "more powerful" Russian response; in energy, Putin reveals evaluating full diesel export ban, which could shake supply in Europe and Asia if implemented.

US Supreme Court rules Cook to remain at Fed; Trump says will ensure she does not influence key monetary decisions. Supreme Court voted 5-4 that while Cook challenges Trump’s dismissal, she can remain at the Fed. Trump replied: Will ensure Cook doesn't make major monetary policy decisions. This case tests Fed independence.

White House economic adviser previews jobs data? Hassett: This week's job report will again be strong, current reasons for rate hikes not sufficient. NEC director Hassett said signs point to another strong jobs number in Thursday's report. US AI productivity surge is disinflationary, thus reasons for rate hikes not solid.

US to change "statistics method"! Wall Street: aims to "lower" core inflation, risk of manipulation. US Bureau of Economic Analysis to revise PCE price index calculation methodology for three sub-categories from Sep 30. Goldman: combined changes will cut May core PCE y/y inflation by 0.2pp to 3.2%. UBS warns two revised items happen to be among top contributors to core PCE, new method lacks transparency, hard to verify independently, risk of manipulated data.

Yen breaks 40-year floor, trillions in intervention unwound, Tokyo trapped in policy dilemma. FX traders say intervention is looming if yen does not quickly recover. Early June, after meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bezenth online, Japanese finance minister said bold joint moves possible. But intervention without addressing US-Japan rate spread is merely buying time, ultimate test will come.

Korea's largest-ever industrial investment plan! DRAM output to double in 5 years, Samsung/SK each build two chip plants. South Korea's president Lee Jae-myung announced "three super projects": Samsung and SK to build four chip plants in southwest Korea, invest ~800 trillion won, DRAM output to double in 5 years; AI data centers to get another 1000 trillion won investment. Market reversed sharply after news, KOSDAQ surged over 8%.

GPT5.6 gets brain cut! Fable 5 returns as "nerfed" version? Due to AI safety oversight, two top models are restricted: GPT-5.6 forced split, strongest version restricted access; Fable 5 delisted for network attack risk, expected to return with more "guardrails". Developers worry harsh scrutiny will make AI models much dumber and impose heavy use limits.

9GB strange memory?! Most expensive iPhone ever. Reports say iPhone 18 series will see sharp price rises due to memory chip costs, standard iPhone 18 may rise $50, Pro/Pro Max up $200. In China, iPhone 18 Pro could start above RMB 10,000. Standard iPhone 18 and 18e expected in Spring 2027, memory may rise from 8GB to 9GB.

Selected Research Reports

Hidden plans! Waller paving way for September "rate cut"? As market prices Sept rate hike at 75%, Academy Securities analyst Tchir makes disruptive call: Waller's hawkish stance is just a smokescreen—by depressing long-term yields, redefining inflation targets, fighting for neutral rate narrative, the Fed chair may be quietly preparing for rate cuts in Sept/Oct, right before midterms.

Waller's Sintra debut: Four veterans from 2008, a "war on inflation" comes full circle. At ECB Sintra Forum, four 2008 crisis veterans share stage—same tools, direction reversed 180 degrees; sent by Trump for rate cuts, Waller’s debut signals "won't relent till inflation fades". The deliberately empty dot plot will be filled in Sintra.

AI to ignite US earnings season! Wall Street: S&P 500 Q2 profits may surge 22%. Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings up 22% y/y in Q2, AI infra stocks to contribute 60% of growth, Micron & Nvidia alone over 40%. High oil prices surprise oil firms, but cost pressure leads to significant sector profit divergence.

AI bull market's sword: not just Korea, US stock leverage is also striking. Global stocks hit new highs driven by AI, but US margin loans reached $1.4 trillion in May, leveraged ETFs exceed $220 billion, with layered leverage risks. Barclays warns $300 billion derivatives may face closing risk. Korea’s high leverage triggered circuit breakers, AXW futures surge signal US stock margin cost at 2020 highs, highly concentrated AI tech stocks face multi-pronged deleveraging.

Goldman trader warning: memory chip sector faces three downside risks. Goldman trader Ippei Yamaura says sector faces three risks as OpenAI IPO delayed and price cuts spark AI investment return concerns: HBM price momentum slows, new overseas entrants heighten DRAM competition, AI server investment overall slows. Memory & AI infra sectors face structural, not just short-term, pressure.

OpenRouter releases 2026’s "open source F4", open source catches up with closed source, gap down to 3–6 months. Open source AI is visibly approaching closed source limits. OpenRouter lists four best open source models for June 2026: DeepSeek V4 Flash matches GPT-5.5 agent level with just 1% cost; GLM 5.2 tops open source code planning; MiniMax M3 dominates multimodal; Nvidia Nemotron strikes domestic enterprise ace. Difference between open and closed source is now razor thin.

Where's the real moat for humanoid robots? Bernstein argues at OEM level, tech lead is brief and easily eroded, high-value data, ecosystem, IP/brand and cost leadership are future core barriers; component suppliers and computing/software platform providers have clearer moat paths via their deep accumulated capabilities.

Domestic Macro

State Council issues "15th Five-Year Education Development Plan". Plan proposes integrating AI education in all stages, raising student AI literacy; strengthen education's support for science & talent.

Domestic Companies

Apple wants to buy memory from Changxin? Ming-Chi Kuo: true reason is "gap in supply will keep widening next year". Apple reportedly lobbied US government to buy Changxin memory chips. Kuo says real driver is not cost reduction, but global memory supply gap will widen till 2027—over 15–20% of consumer electronics memory will shift to data centers. But even if lobbying succeeds, Changxin's limited production will not fill gap.

  • Apple, giving Changxin a vote of confidence? Citi says regardless of US gov approval, Apple's move redefines Changxin from "domestic replacement" to "global #4 trusted DRAM maker". And this vote transmits down the supply chain, testing and equipment sectors may see revaluation.

Claude Mythos made Liang Wenfeng decide to raise funds. Spurred by Claude, DeepSeek raised $7.4 billion, founder Liang Wenfeng invests $20 billion in AGI! Team doubled hiring and all-in domestic chips. Despite 15 months R&D gap, their open source model’s extreme cost-effectiveness soared to 17% US monthly share. An all-out breakout fight to smash AI monopoly is underway!

Report: Lenovo has locked in long-term supply deals with Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. Lenovo’s China infrastructure division is raising server business growth targets. Previously set FY27/28 server revenue goal at 100 billion RMB, but based on executed orders, just two main clients will deliver nearly 200 billion RMB revenue next year.

"Buying brokers = buying a basket of discounted tech stocks" logic spreads, broker stocks in value re-rating rally. The key change is breaking "broker rally/tech pullback" teeter-totter effect, with securities and hard tech rising together. Brokers, long seen as "bull market leader" for elasticity, now get attention for extensive hard tech equity holdings via direct investment/underwriting, now at historic low valuations, tech color now valued, new re-rating rally emerging.

International Macro

Last week: Hedge funds record sell-off of US tech stocks, chip stocks sold for 8 days straight, Mag 7 reduced for 5 weeks. Last week’s record tech fund outflows, biggest in a decade; semiconductors net sold 8 days straight, over half of tech stock sells; "Tech Mag 7" reduced for 5 weeks, positioning near 3-year lows. Main reason is re-evaluation of AI investment cycle, triggering institutional concentrated exit.

BIS: AI bubble & "circular financing" collapse may be biggest risk to global financial system. BIS warns of AI bubble burst, inflation, sovereign debt as top global threats. Report highlights risks of asset rehypothecation in opaque AI "circular financing", which if unwound may trigger 2008-level credit crisis. Leveraged basis trades via hedge funds also risky, could prompt fire-sale deleveraging, adding to system fragility.

International Companies

Micron locks in hundreds of billions with long-term orders, but also caps market imagination. Micron beats earnings, locks in AI memory supercycle with massive long-term deals. But post-surge drop reveals market worries: extreme pricing means positive news quickly exhausted. Huge order guarantee ensures profit floor, but also puts a cap on AI bull market valuation potential.

How disruptive is "Glass Bridge"? Wall Street: FAU firms face upheaval, AI optical module firms temporarily safe. Wall Street thinks Corning’s GlassBridge tech’s impact is limited in short term, won’t affect CPO schemes in 1–2 years; but in 2028–2030, commercialization will offer disruptive substitution risk to FAU firms. Some AI optical module and switched-on optical engine firms are safer.

Industry/Concepts

1, Commercial Space | Shanghai Securities News reports that as of June 29, Landspace Aerospace has updated submitted financials, status "inquired", signed 300 million RMB rocket launch contract for 2025 with Yuanxin Satellite. Other rocket firms: CAS Space IPO status "inquired", Tianbing, Galactic Energy, Space Pioneer in listing coaching. Landspace says its reusable Suzaku-3 carrier rocket completed static test at Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Zone, all ground checks before launch completed.

Comment: June 2025, STAR Market "1+6" reforms include commercial space in fifth criteria set. Landspace is first commercial space firm to apply after new rules, sprinting for STAR Market "first commercial space stock". IPO seeks 7.5 billion RMB for reusable rocket capacity/tech upgrades. Huatai Securities believes, with policy, tech validation and industry progress as catalysts, commercial space sector may see new trading opportunities.

2, Innovative Drugs | Shanghai Securities News: National Healthcare Security Administration on June 29 published drugs passing initial 2026 catalog review—557 drugs pass basic medical insurance, 54 pass commercial insurance innovative drug catalog review. Disclosure period: June 29–July 5.

Comment: JPM research says this cuts drug approval-to-insurance time lag from 1–2 years to much less. Pre-reporting may cut innovative drug insurance access cycle by ~1 year, and accelerate post-insurance commercialization. Hengrui, Fosun already benefit from 2025 commercial innovation drugs catalog inclusion; with 2026 plan, drugs already in commercial catalog can apply for basic insurance, so these firms may benefit first from new "commercial first, insurance follows" model.

3, High-bandwidth Memory (HBM) | China Securities Journal: Korea's industry minister Kim Jung-gwan says plan to invest 800 trillion won (~$518 billion) to build four semiconductor fabs in southwest Korea, to double DRAM capacity in 5 years, global memory market to quadruple in 5 years. Samsung's Lee Jae-yong and SK's Chey Tae-won announced a 2,000 trillion won ($1.3 trillion) mega investment plan for the next decade.

Comment: Memory giants’ epic expansion will boost upstream equipment/material demand, with semiconductor equipment, wafers, photoresists, electronic gases, targets and other key consumables seeing massive orders, localization also set to accelerate. HBM relies heavily on advanced 2.5D/3D stacking packaging. As Korean corporates ramp up HBM output, back-end stacking, packaging and testing contract orders will rise sharply, and deeply connected packaging/testing firms will benefit first.

4, Domestic Chips | China Securities Journal: "Yisuan Ark" domestic computing system software ecosystem platform, jointly developed by CAS Computer Network Info Center etc., launched June 29. Platform addresses pain points of software adaption difficulty, code migration, and cumbersome scientific research, providing integrated solution for scientific computing software ecosystem. It achieves algorithm, code, application chain integration, moving domestic computing from hardware-leading to mature software-hardware synergy, supporting national high-efficiency, autonomous computing ecosystem.

5, Artificial Intelligence | Securities Times: State Council recently issued "15th Five-Year Education Plan" with deployment for accelerated building of education powerhouse. Plan proposes improving student skills/literacy, deepens quality education. It perfects science education system, boosts youth science literacy, critical thinking, innovation, stresses synergy between tech and humanities education. Promotes AI education at all stages, raises student AI literacy, enhances problem identification and solution skills.

Comment: Driven by growing demand for personalized learning, AI is profoundly changing global education. Industry growth may exceed 30%. GrandViewResearch report: 2024 global AI education market size estimated at $5.88 billion, expected to reach $32.27 billion by 2030. Main drivers: growing demand for personalized learning, schools/institutions increasingly using AI-driven tools (tutoring, chatbots, analytics) to boost engagement and optimize teaching, plus government education spending supports AI education demand.

Today's News Preview

China June official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, composite PMI.

2026 China Intelligent Computing Industry Ecosystem Annual Conference.

Netease switches to dual primary listing in HK from June 30.

US May JOLTS job openings.

US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

US April 20-city seasonally adjusted home price index.

UK Q1 GDP.

Germany June CPI.

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Risk warning and disclaimerMarkets carry risks; invest cautiously. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it consider particular users’ investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their situation. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```