Wallstreetcn Breakfast FM-Radio | March 13, 2026
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Huajian Morning Voice
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Market Overview
The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, Brent crude closes above $100 for the first time since August 2022, and redemption pressure rises in private credit markets, causing US stocks to plummet across the board.
S&P 500 drops 1.5%, marking the lowest since last November. Nasdaq down nearly 1.8%. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down nearly 3.5%. All seven tech giants fall, Tesla leads with over 3% loss. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater's private credit funds restrict withdrawals due to surging redemption requests, dragging down the banking sector. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both drop over 4%. Post-market, Adobe plunges 7% after earnings due to weak outlook; CEO resigning.
Oil price spikes dampen market expectations for Fed rate cuts; traders currently price less than one 25bp cut by 2026. 2-year US Treasury yield jumped 11bp to 3.76%, up 20bp this week. Dollar hits near-two-month high. Yen crashes 2%.
Gold and silver drop 2%. Brent oil rises up to 10%, WTI oil surges nearly 9%. Cryptocurrencies edge lower.
In Asia, the ChiNext Index falls nearly 1%, chemicals and coal outperform, Hong Kong stocks decline, "lobster" sector adjusts again, Guotai Junan International drops over 4%.
Headlines
China
The US to launch 301 investigations against China, EU, India, Japan, and 16 other trade partners.
Hong Kong SFC and ICAC jointly bust an over 300 million yuan insider trading case, arresting 8 people.
Li Auto Q4 revenue down 35% YoY, gross margin recovers to 16.8%, free cash flow turns positive; conference call: new L9 breakthrough, full-electric climb, 10 billion R&D investment, this year is key for transformation into an "embodied intelligence" enterprise.
Cambricon's 2025 revenue surges over 450%, net profit of 2.06 billion yuan turns strong positive, Zhang Jianping buys an additional 408,000 shares.
AI computing "shovel seller" Shenghong Tech’s 2025 annual report explodes, net profit soars 274%, distributes 1.7 billion in dividends.
Riding AI computing tailwind, Sunway Circuit's 2025 parent net profit jumps 74% YoY, proposes 24 yuan cash per 10 shares.
Overseas
Iran's new leader's first statement: will not abandon vengeance, Hormuz Strait will remain closed, new fronts will be opened as needed. Iran claims to have destroyed 70% of US bases and command centers in the Middle East; any attack on Iranian energy infrastructure and ports will face devastating retaliation. US Treasury Secretary says will escort as soon as possible when circumstances permit, Energy Secretary says possibly this month. US Senator reveals: Trump’s Iran war "has no plan". FBI: Iran may attack US homeland! Trump: We'll play it by ear. Dubai suffers multiple drone attacks.
Markets no longer expect the Fed to cut rates this year! Trump urges Powell to cut rates immediately: Don't wait for the next meeting!
Nvidia spends $26 billion to build AI models, directly challenges OpenAI.
Musk’s latest interview: "Optimus 3" is coming, AI "self-improvement" has happened, after AI's singularity "money will no longer matter".
Honda posts its first loss since listing, expects FY2026 net loss of 420–690 billion yen, sharply retracts electrification strategy.
Market Closing
US & European stocks: S&P 500 down 1.52% at 6672.62. Dow Jones down 1.56% at 46677.85. Nasdaq down 1.78% at 22311.979. European STOXX 600 down 0.61% at 598.86.
A-shares: Shanghai Composite closes at 4129.10, down 0.10%. Shenzhen Component closes at 14374.87, down 0.63%. ChiNext closes at 3317.52, down 0.96%.
Bonds: US 10-year Treasury yield up over 3.3bp, hitting daily high at 4.2746%. 2-year US Treasury yield up over 10bp, hitting daily high at 3.7637%.
Commodities: WTI April crude futures up 9.72% to $95.73/barrel. Brent May crude futures up 9.2% to $100.46/barrel, first close above $100 since August 2022.
Headline Details
Global Heavyweight
China
US to launch 301 investigations against China, EU, India, Japan and 16 other trade partners. According to CCTV International News, this clause authorizes the US Trade Representative to investigate “unreasonable or unfair trade practices” of other countries, and to recommend unilateral sanctions to the President after investigations. The process is initiated, investigated, judged, and enforced unilaterally by the US itself.
Hong Kong SFC and ICAC jointly bust over 300 million yuan insider trading case, arresting 8 people. Investigations show that senior managers of licensed securities firms took over 4 million yuan in bribes from licensed hedge fund managers, leaking confidential share placement information before public disclosure. The hedge fund gained about 315 million yuan profit from short positions based on this confidential data.
Li Auto Q4 revenue down 35% YoY, gross margin recovers to 16.8%, free cash flow turns positive; Conference call: New L9 breakthrough, full-electric climb, 10 billion R&D investment, this year is key for transformation into an "embodied intelligence" enterprise
- Li Auto's 2025 revenue was 112.3 billion yuan, down 22.3% YoY; Q4 revenue was 28.78 billion yuan, operating loss narrowed to 443 million yuan from 1.2 billion yuan in Q3. Q4 gross margin recovered to 16.8%, free cash flow turned positive at 2.47 billion yuan. Q1 2026 revenue guidance: 20.4–21.6 billion yuan.
- 2026 will focus on launching the new generation flagship L9 and scaling pure electric models, while increasing AI investment, targeting 20% YoY sales growth. New L9 to launch in Q2. Li Xiang, CEO, says 2026 is key for Li Auto's evolution into an "embodied intelligent enterprise", accelerating its strategic shift from smart EV manufacturer to AI enterprise via organizational and core tech development.
Cambricon's 2025 revenue surges over 450%, net profit of 2.06 billion yuan turns strong positive, Zhang Jianping buys 408,000 more shares. Cambricon achieved 6.497 billion yuan revenue (+453.21% YoY) and 2.059 billion yuan net profit (2024 was a loss of 450 million yuan). Cash dividend 15 yuan per 10 shares (after tax), plus 4.9 new shares per 10 via capital fund.
AI computing "shovel seller" Shenghong Tech's 2025 annual report explodes, net profit soars 274%, distributes 1.74 billion in dividends. Driven by AI computing infrastructure, Shenghong Tech delivered its strongest annual report: revenue 19.292 billion yuan (+79.8%), net profit 4.312 billion yuan (+273.5%), ROE up to 35.6%. High-end HDI and multilayer board tech saw volume and price increases. Q4 operating cash flow 2.219 billion yuan, almost half full year. Dividends: 20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.74 billion yuan.
Riding the AI computing tailwind, Sunway Circuit's 2025 parent net profit jumps 74% YoY, proposes 24 yuan cash per 10 shares. Sunway Circuit's 2025 revenue 23.647 billion yuan (+32.05%), driven by high-end PCB and packaging substrates: PCB revenue 14.359 billion yuan (+36.84%), packaging substrate revenue 4.148 billion yuan (+30.80%).
Big companies' Claw products bring about "lobster equality", but half lobsters are forecasting the weather. Major firms have launched “Claw” products, providing AI agents for non-tech users via cloud and IM platforms. But a “easy to install, hard to nurture” problem has emerged: over half users uninstall due to lack of practical usage scenarios, and high token consumption structurally hurts business models.
Overseas
Iran's new leader’s first statement: will not abandon revenge, Hormuz Strait will remain closed, new fronts will be opened as needed. Mujtaba Khamenei says all US bases in the Middle East must close, or else face attacks.
US's largest carrier "Ford" catches fire amid Iran action, military says fire unrelated. Central Command says fire in main laundry was contained; two injured sailors treated, propulsion system unhurt, ship still operational.
Iran claims to have destroyed 70% of US bases and command centers in the Middle East; any attack on Iranian energy infrastructure and ports will face devastating retaliation. Iran says it has sustained war capability and holds advanced missile systems yet unused; attacked US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain port, precise strikes on anti-drone systems. US officials say no major casualties in Iraq.
US Treasury Secretary says will escort as soon as possible when circumstances allow, Energy Secretary says possibly this month. Secretary Besant said escorting has been planned for weeks/months. Energy Secretary Wright said may happen before end of month, but not ready yet. Trump says stopping Iran from nuclear weapons is more important than oil price; warns Iran that mining Hormuz Strait and not clearing mines brings “unprecedented military consequences”. US military sunk 16 Iranian mine boats on Tuesday. UK says Iran may have begun mining.
After closed-door briefing, US senator reveals: Trump’s Iran war "has no plan". Democratic senator after White House briefing says Trump administration has neither clear goals nor exit strategy; not planning to destroy nuclear program or achieve regime change; if bombing stops and Iran restarts production, answer is “bomb again”. No plan for Hormuz blockade.
"Unidentified vessels off West Coast launching drones", FBI: Iran may attack US homeland! Trump: We'll play it by ear. After US-Israeli strikes on Iran for 12 days, FBI warns Iran could launch drones at California from unidentified vessels. Homeland Security fears “lone wolf” attacks or sleeper agents activated; Oscars ceremony beefs up security. California governor says no imminent threat but preparations made. Trump says “play it by ear.” Texas shooting suspect once wore Iran flag shirt.
Trump administration’s new oil price trick: plans to suspend century-old law. Will issue a 30-day Jones Act waiver allowing foreign tankers to transport fuel from Gulf coast to East Coast refineries, easing logistics bottlenecks. Waiver is considered able to lower transport costs and materially impact domestic fuel flows.
Middle East escalation: Dubai suffers multiple drone attacks, oil price breaks $100. On March 11, two drones crashed near Dubai airport, injuring four people. Goldman Sachs, Citi, etc. evacuate staff, over 46,000 flights canceled. Due to Hormuz paralysis, Saudi and others cut production, Brent crude breaks $101.50. Models project if closure lasts three months, oil could peak near $164.
Hormuz stagnates, oil tankers reroute to Red Sea, already 30 vessels! About 30 VLCCs heading to Yanbu port in western Saudi Arabia (historically only 2 per month). Saudi Aramco plans to use Red Sea to export up to 5 million barrels per day to offset Hormuz disruption.
Scarcer than oil: Middle East LNG shutdown affects global supply, Asia rushes to buy. Qatar’s Ras Laffan closure affects 20% global LNG supply, compounded by low inventories, most Asian countries face severe LNG shortage; Asian buyers pay more and divert ships from Europe. Analysts say price surge will raise European chemical costs; as only 4% of China’s LNG is from Middle East, Chinese chemical industry faces window for structural expansion.
Markets no longer expect Fed to cut rates this year! Trump urges Powell to cut rates immediately: Don't wait for next meeting! On Thursday, 2-year US Treasury yield soared as traders no longer see 100% probability of a 2026 rate cut. Trump posted urging Powell to cut rates now instead of waiting for the next meeting. Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices and threatened global supply chains, raising living costs for Americans; Republicans see this as negative for their hopes of keeping Congress in November elections.
Nvidia spends $26 billion to build AI models, directly challenges OpenAI. Nvidia announced $26 billion investment over 5 years in open-source large models, transforming from hardware giant to full-stack AI company. The new Nemotron 3 Super has 128 billion parameters and scores 37, beating OpenAI’s GPT-OSS’s 33. Move strengthens Nvidia's hardware ecosystem and consolidates dominance in AI computing.
Jensen Huang was right: AI infrastructure urgently lacks electricians—Microsoft, Google and now Blackrock spend $100 million training workers. Blackrock invests $100 million in technician training, echoing Jensen Huang’s warning of electrician shortage. US expects to need over 300,000 new electricians in the next decade for AI-driven growth, while 200,000 will retire. With overtime/promotion, annual income can approach $200,000.
Musk's latest interview: "Optimus 3" is coming, AI "self-improvement" has happened, after AI's singularity "money will no longer matter". Musk revealed humanoid robot "Optimus 3" is almost ready, production will start this summer, with mass manufacturing next year. He says AI is in recursive self-improvement, full automation might come by next year. He predicts global economic scale could grow 10x in 10 years, money will become irrelevant, only energy and quality matter—"power and tonnage".
Adobe breaks revenue record last quarter, but guidance flat, longest-serving CEO steps down, shares drop 7% after hours. Q1 Adobe revenue up 12% YoY, EPS up nearly 20%, AI-priority products’ ARR more than doubled; Q2 guidance doesn't beat expectations. CEO Narayen retires after 18 years steering two major transformations. Adobe AI commercialization uncertain, CEO departure raises continuity concerns.
Honda posts its first loss since listing, expects FY2026 net loss of 420–690 billion yen, sharply retracts electrification strategy. Honda’s electrification faces headwinds. Slowing US EV market and tariffs prompt Honda to cut electric strategy, cancel three planned NA EV models, retreat to hybrids and India. First annual loss since listing expected, net profit forecast: -420 to -690 billion yen.
Research Highlights
“Largest ever strategic oil reserve release”—but size and speed disappoint. IEA to release 400 million barrels, US to contribute 172 million barrels. Actual supply rate estimated at only 1.2 million barrels/day by analysts, but Hormuz blockage causes a deficit of 11–16 million barrels/day. US reserve releases face 13-day delay and capacity limits; real market entry waits til end March.
Middle East crisis hits, Goldman lowers US economic outlook, delays rate cut to September, warns stock sell-off may exceed average. With Iran conflict, Goldman revises: Brent crude could hit $145 in extreme scenario, US inflation peak may reach 5%, recession probability rises to 25%, Q4 GDP growth cut by 0.3 percentage points. First rate cut delayed from June to September, Goldman warns stock market drops historically exceed average during deep geopolitical shocks (e.g., Gulf War, 9/11).
Druckenmiller: Over-analysis is investors' biggest mistake; biggest risk in 2026 is "narrative bubbles". Legendary investor Druckenmiller says over-analyzing is the enemy; take action when you know 15% of info. Sees narrative-driven bubbles as biggest tail risk for 2026; warns that all big crises in history have bubbles behind them.
Muddy Waters founder turns bearish: If AI keeps replacing white collars, US 401K system may collapse. Carson Block expects 15% of US knowledge jobs to vanish in 3 years from AI. If job losses reduce 401(k) deposits and force early withdrawals, stock market faces sustained outflow; "no one will catch the falling knife".
China Macro
Justice Minister He Rong: Will accelerate AI legislation this year, focus on fixing 'involution' competition. He Rong says key government legislation this year includes optimizing business environment, making unified market rules, addressing protectionism, improper entry conditions, and "involuted" competition.
China Companies
China Satellite Co. releases space-shot ship video: crisp, smooth, full detail—caption 'Bringing the world closer'. Jilin-1 commercial satellite published the first space-shot video of moving ships at sea, marking a leap from static photos to dynamic video. Jilin-1 is China’s first commercial high-res remote sensing satellite, now forms the largest sub-meter commercial satellite constellation worldwide.
China Passenger Car Association: February NEV retail sales at 464,000 units, down 32% YoY. CPCA data: Feb 1–28 passenger car retail sales were 1.034 million units, down 25.4% YoY, down 33.1% MoM. NEV retail sales 464k (-32%), YTD NEV retail 1.06 million (-25.7%). Regular fuel car retail 570k, down 19% YoY.
Overseas Macro
EU: Will "respond firmly" if US breaks trade agreement. EU committee says it will respond "firmly and proportionately" if the US breaches past trade deals, requests clarity on how US 301 investigation aligns with last year’s agreement.
To ease housing costs, US Senate passes housing bill; investor restrictions may spark House controversy. Senate passed a bipartisan bill to increase US housing supply, includes a clause limiting investors with over 350 homes from buying new single-family houses, and requiring partial sale within 7 years. 12 housing/real estate organizations oppose this, saying it may restrict construction and reduce rental housing, and hope House will amend the bill.
South Korean parliament passes law; $350 billion US investment finalized. Parliament passed special legislation enacting $350 billion US investment: $150 billion for shipbuilding; $200 billion for strategic industries, capped at $20 billion/year. Analysts say this aims to ease trade friction but exports may still be affected by US policy.
India: Plans $11 billion new fund to support local chip manufacturing. India plans over 1 trillion rupee ($10.8B) semiconductor fund to subsidize chip design, manufacturing and supply chain. Fund may start within 2–3 months.
Overseas Companies
Ahead of biggest IPO ever, Tesla allowed to invest in SpaceX via xAI. Media says this conversion relates to Tesla’s previously announced $2 billion xAI investment, representing less than 1% stake in SpaceX.
Three major international chip makers announce across-the-board price hikes in April, up to 85%. Texas Instruments, NXP, Infineon to raise chip prices from April 1; Taiwan's Nuvoton also follows suit. NXP says adjustments reflect rising raw material and energy costs.
Like "personal doctor"! Microsoft releases Copilot Health: supports medical and wearable data uploads, focuses on encrypted privacy. Microsoft enters AI healthcare, launches Copilot Health chat app supporting medical and wearable device data analysis, aims to provide personalized health services anytime. Officially promises data encryption, never uses data for model training, and will “assist but not diagnose”.
Industries/Concepts
1. Computing Power | On March 12, MIIT issued a notice to organize the 2026 City "Millisecond Computing" action. In 2026, 50 regions will carry out city "millisecond computing" actions to enhance efficient computing power transport and promote integration of computing and networking.
Analysis: Guotou Securities believes domestic computing power faces a historic window amid resonance of internal and external demand, advancing from point breakthrough to indigenous tech systems, full-stack ecosystem, and validated commercial closed-loop. Shift from “usable” to “easy to use” is accelerating and large-scale deployment in key industries may follow. Demand side: global computing demand led by overseas cloud vendor capex, domestic “East numbers West computing” as core, plus policy support for “computing vouchers”. Supply side: domestic computing power achieves multiple technical and ecosystem breakthroughs. Chiplet tech for hardware combines different processes, bypassing process bottlenecks. Industry: global AI demand shifting from training to inference fits domestic lightweight model strengths, giving indigenous inference chips large-scale application space.
2. Polyester Bottle | On March 12, Baichuan Yingfu data shows domestic polyester bottle chip price at 8900 yuan/ton, up 13.38% from March 11, up 28.06% from last week.
Analysis: First Futures says terminal domestic operations gradually resume, spot transactions up, raw material prices rise continuously, bottle chip prices boosted. Sea freight jumps, export quotes rise greatly, some plants hold back sales. Expected short-term bottle chip futures to stay strong with costs.
3. Wind Power | According to Sina Finance, UK will drop 33 wind power import tariffs from April 1; core parts like blades, cables down from 6%, 2% to 0%. This aims to unlock £22 billion investment, accelerating offshore wind buildout in North Sea.
Analysis: Guojin Securities says zero-tariff policy reinforces government resolve, offshore wind logic strengthens. With Mideast conflict fueling energy anxiety and data center builds strengthening latent power gap, offshore wind is Europe’s best local resource and most complete supply chain, with some economic viability. Offshore install volume expected to exceed 15GW/year after 2031, twice 2026-2030's 7GW/year, and 2026 orders may validate this leap.
4. Optical Communication | At China appliance and consumer electronics expo (AWE), Shanghai Instrument Electronics and others jointly released LightSphere128 commercial optical super-node. Marks China's original optical interconnect/exchange solution going from proof to commercial in half a year, now with thousands of cards deployed. Shortens model training time and reasoning delay, switch delay drops to microseconds, transfer delay over 90% less than traditional electrical exchange, offering high cost-performance and efficiency for domestic computing power solutions.
Analysis: Optical interconnect/exchange node is China’s original full-stack smart computing cluster tech, bypasses “communication wall” bottleneck, achieves cross-rack GPU 10,000-card elastic expansion, markedly improves training efficiency and energy ratio. It’s a major AI computing infrastructure breakthrough—solves large-cluster bottlenecks, builds safe, efficient, scalable foundation for China’s AI innovation.
5. Outdoor Products | According to China Securities Journal, spring outings bloom in overseas markets. Tents, sunshades, beach chairs, patio furniture are hot sellers as “spring economy” hits a consumption peak. Data shows order growth, production lines run full, exports rise steadily.
Analysis: With camping, hiking etc. popularizing, “urban light outdoors” is now mainstream, directly expanding the outdoor products market. Global leisure/outdoor products market valued at $126.5 billion in 2024, expected to rise to $210 billion in 2034.
Today's Headlines Preview
US Q4 real GDP.
US January real personal consumption, income, PCE price index.
US January JOLTS job openings.
US March Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
US January durable goods orders.
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Risk Disclosure & DisclaimerThe market involves risk; investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article suit their particular situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```