WallstreetCN Morning Brief FM-Radio | February 24, 2026

```

Hua Jian Morning Voice

Listeners are requested to upgrade to the latest version of the Jianwen App to successfully listen to the following audio.

Market Overview

AI worries intensify, tariff war risks reignite, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed down about 1% or more, financial and software stocks dragged down U.S. stocks.

Anthropic products threaten programming languages, IBM drops 13%, marking the biggest drop in 25 years. Financial sector fell over 3%, leading the S&P lower; American Express dropped over 7%, asset management firms plunged; KKR fell nearly 9%, Blue Owl, targeted by activist hedge funds for its credit fund, dropped over 3%. Retail stocks sensitive to tariffs fell together; Wayfair dropped nearly 10%. Cybersecurity stocks continued last Friday's sharp losses after Anthropic's new tool threat, CrowdStrike fell nearly 10%.

Pan-European stock index and UK stocks fell from record highs. Trials showed its drug's weight-loss effect lagged behind Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk fell over 16%.

U.S. Treasuries rebounded, 10-year Treasury yield approached a three-month low. After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Trump tariffs, the dollar fell for two days and left a four-week high. Offshore RMB broke above 6.89 during the session, approaching a three-year high.

Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 intraday, hitting a two-week low and fell over 5% from the day's high. Gold hit a new monthly high intraday, futures gold briefly rose over 3%. Silver futures briefly rose nearly 8%. Crude oil reversed to rise over 1%, reached a six-month high, then reversed lower; Brent stopped a three-day winning streak at close.

In Asia session, Hang Seng Tech soared over 3%, Meituan up over 5%, "Big Model Twins" Zhipu and MINIMAX obviously corrected.

Market Wrap

US/EU Stock Markets: S&P 500 fell 1.04% to 6837.75. Dow fell 1.66% to 48804.06. NASDAQ fell 1.13% to 22627.273. European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.45% at 627.70.

A-shares Closed for holiday.

Bond Market: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.36 basis points to 4.0290%. 2-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 3.4380%.

Commodities: Spot gold up 2.38%, at $5229.70/oz. Spot silver up 3.99%, at $88.0245/oz. WTI April crude futures closed down $0.27, down 0.38%, at $66.31/barrel.

Top Story Details

Global Headlines

China

Ministry of Commerce: Urges U.S. to cancel unilateral tariff measures imposed on trade partners. The Ministry said China always opposes unilateral tariff measures, repeatedly emphasizing that there are no winners in trade wars and protectionism has no future. The U.S. measures such as reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs violate international economic and trade rules and U.S. domestic law and are not in the interests of any parties. History shows China and U.S. benefit by cooperation, suffer by confrontation. China urges U.S. to cancel unilateral tariffs. Noting the U.S. is preparing trade investigations as alternative measures, China will closely follow and firmly protect its interests.

Moon Dark Side becomes the fastest unicorn in China, past 20 days' revenue exceeded last year's total! Public info shows ByteDance took over 4 years, Pinduoduo over 3 years to break $10 billion valuation, but Kimi went from $300 million angel round to over $10 billion in just two years, up over 30 times.

Overseas

U.S. Customs: Will stop collecting Supreme Court-overturned tariffs from Feb 24. CBP (Customs & Border Protection) said tariffs levied under International Emergency Economic Powers Act will be discontinued, and goods entering consumption from Feb 24 onwards will not be charged such tariffs. Other Trump-era tariffs remain unaffected.

U.S. Democrats will block any tariff extension, push mandatory refunds. After the Supreme Court overturned last year's reciprocal tariffs and IEEPA tariffs, Trump invoked an alternative legal tool, Article 122, for a 15% global tariff. If Congress does not approve extension, new tariffs will expire this summer. 15% matches the rate adopted in trade deals with EU etc.; failure to maintain this may send investment commitments down the drain. Democratic senators put forth a bill requiring refunds for tariffs paid under Trump’s increases.

EU Parliament suspends EU-US trade deal approval amid Trump warnings. Trump warned countries trying to "mess around" with Supreme Court ruling will face higher tariffs and worse consequences. EU trade committee chairman Lange said vote is delayed, EU wants clarity and confirmation of U.S. respect for the EU-US agreement, which is vital.

UK may be Trump tariff’s biggest new victim. After Supreme Court vetoed Trump global tariffs, UK faces risk of its preferential 10% rate being raised to 15%. As one of few with low tariff treatment, the UK may take the biggest hit, followed by Italy and Singapore. If implemented, UK export costs could rise £3 billion, impacting about 40,000 firms.

Fed Governor Waller: CEOs say AI will cause mass layoffs, March rate decisions hinge on February labor data. Waller welcomes January’s upbeat jobs report but worries about “more noise than signal,” noting revised data show near zero net job additions in 2025. Whether he backs a rate cut at next Fed meeting depends on forthcoming labor data.

Trump reportedly considers "small then big" strikes against Iran. According to Xinhua, citing Trump insiders, Trump is inclined to launch preliminary strikes on Iran in coming days to show leaders that they must agree to give up nuclear weapons capability. Targets may include Revolutionary Guard HQ, nuclear facilities, and missile sites.

Iranian FM: Possible to achieve a "better deal" than 2015 nuclear agreement. Xinhua reports Iranian FM Aragchi told U.S. media a better deal than the 2015 comprehensive deal is possible, stressing Iran's right to peaceful nuclear use. He said compared to 10 years ago, circumstances have changed and some points could be much improved.

From "June 2028 Research Report": When AI exceeds expectations but the economy collapses. CitriniResearch memo fictionalized an "AI prosperity crisis": In 2028, AI productivity surges beyond expectations but "economic plague" hit as white-collar jobs are wiped out. Although corporate profits and computing dominance expand, household income collapse stalls consumption, creating "ghost GDP." SaaS, intermediaries, and payment modes crumble as friction disappears; risks spread from private credit to insurance and mortgages, dragging the globe into systemic repricing abyss.

U.S. stocks plunge across many sectors, a hypothetical AI report triggered selloff. Citrini’s report imagining AI driving white-collar unemployment and economic contraction in 2028 led to severe market response. DoorDash, American Express, KKR, Blackstone shares tumbled, payment and software sectors suffered. Some believe the response may overestimate AI risk.

Anthropic claims to upgrade Cobol systems, IBM plunges 13%, biggest drop in 25 years; Claude Code Security triggers further cybersecurity stock falls. Anthropic announced its Claude Code tool can accelerate Cobol modernization, raising concerns for IBM mainframe business. IBM shares plunged 13%, marking largest single-day drop in over 25 years, February’s decline reached 27%, poised for largest monthly drop in decades.

NVIDIA launches laptop chips, returns to consumer PC market to integrate with next-gen PC ecosystem. New chips aim to make PCs lighter with longer battery life, helping Windows hardware compete with Apple’s latest MacBooks. Rather than short-term profit, analysts say NVIDIA aims to stay relevant as all devices adopt AI functions.

ASML reveals EUV light source breakthrough, chip output may rise 50% by 2030. Media report ASML researchers found ways to greatly boost chip-making machine light source power, potentially increasing chip output by up to 50% by 2030. ASML’s EUV light source chief Michael Purvis said this isn’t just a stunt or tech demo, but a system able to continuously output 1000W power under real customer conditions.

White House briefing a year later still not started, OpenAI’s $500B "Stargate" plan stalemated. Insiders say the OpenAI-Oracle-SoftBank joint venture still has no staff, nor any OpenAI data centers built. Weeks after launch, the parties fell out over leadership, roles, and structure, stalling the Stargate project.

Research Highlights

Wall Street analysis of Trump IEEPA tariff rejected: Tariffs may fall in second half, rebates may become stimulus, potential sector benefits. Wall Street analysts say though government started alternative tariffs quickly, effective rate fell slightly, and policy may soften after July. Central variable is $180B potential rebate, ~$120B may morph into pre-midterm stimulus. Since inflation impact is mostly passed, direct shock is limited, but may support growth via fiscal expansion; tariff tool limits could weaken dollar medium-term.

Reciprocal tariffs illegal, can "substitute" mechanism work? CICC says Trump admin may try various substitute tariffs and keep trade deals stable; after 122 tariffs, Section 301 investigation may be key. But rule limits, Congress, and election pressure mean it’s hard to fully replicate earlier reciprocal tariffs. For China, with “truce” and Trump’s visit motives, overall U.S.-China tariff levels may fall, benefiting labor-intensive exports during the low-tariff window.

$3.8 trillion in private equity assets backlog, Bain: PE sector downturn outlasts 2008. U.S. private equity faces a deeper, longer downturn than 2008: profit returns at 16-year low, asset backlog hits $3.8T. Bain says high rates and tariff uncertainty extended holding periods, investor yield thresholds up to 20%, sector shifts from “rough growth” to deep value creation.

BofA: Trade oil, hold gold for geopolitics; U.S. stocks need "two external shocks" to break out. Hartnett’s latest report sees U.S. stocks awkward; good fundamentals but overcrowded, funds flowing overseas. Facing geopolitical fog and market swings, investors should trade oil short-term, hold gold mid-term. To break the “bullish but stagnant” deadlock, U.S. stocks need Middle East oil crash or U.S.-China trade détente as “external shocks.”

Global mining giants’ "consensus strategy": Copper! BofA says from BHP, Rio Tinto to Glencore, nearly all majors make copper a priority, capex is rising, now back to 50%+ of old peaks. BofA predicts copper price hitting $15,000/ton, sector ending three-year cuts for profit upgrades, historic investment opportunity emerges.

CICC: Code inflation, physical scarcity. CICC says AI Coding capability lift puts global effective code into exponential expansion, but real-world output and income lag far behind code growth; the world may first see code inflation, excess execution, intensified competition, and reduced capital returns. In short term, A-shares with manufacturing and financial focus are less impacted than U.S./Hong Kong stocks, and the bullish, inflow trend continues; price hikes remain a core Q1 theme.

Commercial space’s "new scenario"—Space pharma. Morgan Stanley says reusable rockets cut launch costs 10x, pharma may first close the business loop. Drug crystals grow purer and larger in microgravity; insulin crystals reach 34x Earth size. Pioneer Varda completed HIV medicine crystal recovery, financing $328M, aims for monthly returns by 2028. But FDA process and unit economics are unproven; commercialization needs weekly launches.

Domestic Macro

Spring Festival consumption: "How strong is the engine?" Guolian Minsheng says this holiday showed peak flow, diverse travel, service boom, and some local softness. Trend of "early return to work," "family reunion then travel" is growing. Compared to hot travel, durable and discretionary consumption still shows cautious splits. Appliances, autos flat, policy benefits need further release.

Post-holiday themes will become clearer. GF Securities says investment activity now broadens from AI halo alone to real economy departments; smooth Fed rate cut path also aids global manufacturing cycle recovery. China’s asset capacity may be repriced, capital return boosts domestic consumption and inflation.

Two main lines to grab "red packet rally". Industrial Securities says AI and resources remain global focus. AI: robots/big models on Spring Festival Gala mark AI's shift from concept to reality, boosting confidence in AI commercialization. Resources: global macro uplift and domestic price rise enrich the price hike clues. March-April is key window for price hikes; with richer clues, price rising is core for profit recovery and style expansion.

Domestic Companies/Industries

Goldman on "Spring Gala robots": Hardware leap promotes adoption, base AI is future key. Goldman says Spring Gala humanoid robot show marks hardware engineering leaps, but real AI ability yet to be proven. Analysts predict shipments jumping from 20,000 in 2026-2027 to 76,000, several times higher. Short-term supply chain stocks may boom, but beware EV market pressure and material price rises. Long-term breakthrough relies on world modeling tech, which decides if the 1.38 million unit goal by 2035 is possible.

Overseas Macro

Korea's "global leader" secret weapon: When the president used to be a retail investor. Korean president Lee Jae-myung, with former retail investor experience and trading losses, drove board accountability, dividend tax reform, and crackdown on market violations, spurring aggressive financial reform. These measures pushed Seoul Composite up 36% for the year, well above the "Kospi 5000" goal. The reforms changed Koreans’ wealth mindset from asset concentration to financial investment.

Overseas Companies

NVIDIA "stagnant" for months—Can this week's "world's most important earnings report" move markets? If earnings can't calm the market, upcoming volatility may hit AIs and the whole market.

SK Hynix promises to keep expanding AI chip capacity after stock quadruples. After stock soared 4x and profit set records, SK chairman Chey Tae-won promised big expansion of HBM "monster chips" to meet AI infrastructure demand. Thanks to strong NVIDIA demand, SK Hynix’s 2026 capacity is already sold out; profit outlook upgraded to $100B.

Lilly upgrades Zepbound to reinforce lead—one shot per month! Novo Nordisk drug trial flop, stock plunges. Lilly released Zepbound multi-dose KwikPen Monday; patients only need one pen for four doses a month, minimum price $299/month, FDA label expansion approved. Boosted by this, Lilly stock jumped 5%. Meanwhile, competitor Novo Nordisk’s next-gen weight-loss drug CagriSema failed in head-to-head trial, didn’t meet “non-inferior” goal vs Zepbound; stock slumped 16%.

Industry/Concepts

1, Gold | As of 8pm Feb 23, gold price surged toward $5200/oz, with COMEX gold futures reaching $5198.8/oz intraday. During 2026 Spring Festival (Feb 16-23), global gold market moved from volatility to strong rally; COMEX gold futures rose over 2%, holiday volatility sharply enlarged.

Commentary: Analysts say gold’s big rise attracts more short-term trading funds, quick capital in/out increases volatility. After sharp run-ups and corrections, gold's financial, monetary, commodity, and safe-haven attributes remain unchanged long-term. Long-term allocation logic persists, but big surges may also magnify volatility.

2, Robots | 2026 Spring Festival Gala featured robots, drawing audience and online buzz. Magic Atom got opening slot, MagicBotZ1 showed "Thomas 360," assisted singers Chen Xiaochun, Yan Chengxu in "Intelligent Manufacturing Future"; Songyuan Robotics performed skit "Grandma’s Favorite" with actors Cai Ming, Wang Tianfang; Unitree Technology robots did martial arts with Henan Tagou School in "Wu BOT"; Galaxy Robotics joined short film "My Most Memorable Night" with actors Shen Teng, Ma Li, etc.

Commentary: Unitree founder Wang Xingxing said the G1/H2 humanoid robots showcased autonomous cluster control tech for the first time—global first time for cluster fast movement, up to 4m/s. Wang predicts global humanoid robot shipments will be tens of thousands this year; Unitree aims for 10,000-20,000 units.

3, Fiberglass | Jiemian reports suppliers/industry expect, due to rising costs/tight supply, fiberglass makers are launching a second price hike. Monthly price adjustment of 10-15% planned; if implemented to year end, price may double. This comes after cumulative hikes over 50% since 2025.

Commentary: Research notes specialty fiberglass cloth is born for the tech era. The compute era means AI hardware and devices need better chip materials—Low-DK for mainboard, Low-CTE for chip packaging. With AI demand booming and supply barriers high, both are in short supply. As data com moves toward high-speed, high-capacity, specialty fiberglass will see both volume and price rise.

4, Computing Power | Sina says multiple model updates globally drove token calls to record highs—up over 15% in two weeks as of Feb 9, with high-frequency model updates (incl. Claude Opus 4.6, Gemini 3 DeepThink, GPT-5.3, as well as domestic models). According to Openrouter, as of Feb 16, MiniMax’s weekly token calls share reached 22% (ranked #1), topped 50% for coding scenarios.

Commentary: Analysts say token is the purest electricity derivative. When U.S. users call Zhipu/DeepSeek API, data goes to China data centers via undersea cables, GPUs use Chinese electricity to infer—the power never leaves China but value is delivered cross-border via token. Electricity+compute power are 70%+ of token cost, China's low electricity is now price setter for global AI services. AWS broke two decades of only price cuts, up prices 15%; cloud pricing logic changed, token inflation is accelerating upstream.

5, 6G | Shanghai news reports Chinese scientists achieved world-first integration of fiber and wireless networks, developed a “fiber-wireless unified system” that set record for data transfer rate. Team simulated 6G mass-user access, demonstrated 86-channel real-time 8K video, bandwidth 10x 5G. Breakthrough by Peking University, Pengcheng Lab, solves “bandwidth gap” between fiber and wireless, lays foundation for 6G.

Commentary: Analysts say AI compute rise and next-gen 6G growth require fast, low-latency signal transmission. New system cracks “bandwidth gap” and sets new speed record. It supports dual-mode fiber and wireless, enhancing anti-interference. It’s major advance for fusion optical and terahertz comms, highly applicable for 6G base stations and wireless data centers.

6, New Materials | Guangming Daily reports Prof. Xu Yunhua team at Tianjin University, with Prof. Huang Fei at SCUT, developed an organic cathode material with excellent conductivity, rapid lithium-ion transmission, and high energy capacity, breaking old organic lithium battery “low charge,” “hard to use” limits. Using this, they made a soft pouch battery with over 250Wh/kg energy density, surpassing common lithium iron phosphate cells. The battery copes with -70°C to 80°C, has good flexibility and safety.

Commentary: Mainstream lithium cathodes use cobalt/nickel minerals, facing resource shortages, high cost, poor flexibility. Organic materials such as quinones are widely sourced, flexible, and are “green battery stars,” giving China an edge in next-gen battery tech.

7, AI Diagnosis | The Shanghai Jiaotong University AI Institute and Xinhua Hospital team produced the world’s first intelligent rare disease evidence-based diagnosis system, DeepRare, providing a Chinese solution to global "diagnosis difficulty, high missed rate."

Commentary: Clinical data show DeepRare’s pure phenotype diagnosis first-hit accuracy at 57.18%—23.79 points better than best international model—solves “cannot diagnose without gene test” issue, and recall is better than rare disease specialists with ten years experience. Genomic data integration pushes complex case first-hit accuracy to 70.61%, much better than common tools. 95.40% doctor satisfaction with reasoning reports, achieving evidence-based diagnosis.

Today's Preview

China’s February one-year and five-year loan market quoted rates.

German Chancellor Merz visits China Feb 24-26.

U.S. President Trump to deliver State of the Union address.

Fed Governor Cook, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Boston Fed President Collins, Richmond Fed President Barkin speak.

U.S. February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

U.S. December 20-city home price index.

Risk Disclosure and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the special investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Acting upon this article, liability is yours alone. ```