Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | January 8, 2025

Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | January 8, 2025

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Market Overview

Mixed US economic data, elevated geopolitical risks suppressed the US stock rally, S&P and Dow fell from record highs, but the Nasdaq rose for a third day; Google parent company closed up 2.5%, surpassed Apple in market value for the first time since 2019, Apple fell for a sixth consecutive day; chip index halted its three-day rally, but Nvidia rebounded 1%; after Trump said as many as 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil will be handed over to the US, refiner Valero Energy rose over 3%; after Trump declared military-industrial companies will not be allowed to issue dividends and buybacks, defense giants all fell, including Northrop Grumman down 5.5%, Lockheed Martin down nearly 5%, and Raytheon Technologies dropped over 5% after hours; Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying US single-family homes, Blackstone fell 5.6%.

US "mini non-farm" ADP employment growth disappointed, US bond yields hit daily lows, after ISM data, US bond yields partially rebounded, 2-year Treasury yields turned upward. After the US ISM services index was released, the dollar's gains widened, approaching a more than three-week high; offshore yuan fell more than 100 points intraday and approached the 7.0 mark, hitting a new low for the year; Bitcoin once fell more than 3% from the daily high, falling below $91,000, Ethereum once fell over 5%.

Metal frenzy cooled off. Silver and platinum led the plunge in precious metals: futures silver fell over 6% intraday, spot platinum fell nearly 8% at one point, gold fell over 1% intraday; all industrial metals retreated: London copper fell over 2%, leaving its record high, London nickel fell over 3%. Oil fell for the second straight day to a three-week low, US oil fell more than 2% intraday.

During the Asian trading session, the SSE Composite rose for the 14th straight day, chasing 4100 points; memory sector was active all day, coal sector exploded, coking coal and anthracite surged to limit up, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.5%, pharmaceutical and biotech soared.

Headlines

China's December forex reserves rose by 0.34% month-on-month, China's central bankincreased gold holding for 14 straight months.

MIIT and seven other departments: Accelerate smart terminal upgrades, by 2027 China’s key AI technologies will achieve secure and reliable supply.

USto "resell" Venezuelan oil, and demands Venezuela cut economic ties with China and Russia, China Foreign Ministryresponds: Typical bullying.

Precious metalsplunged collectively, major commodity indicesrebalancing starts Thursday.

US "Mini non-farm" December ADP employmentnumber grew by 41,000, reversing November's decline but below expected growth; US November JOLTS job openingsfell to a one-year low, fewer than the unemployed for the first time in four years, hiring slowed; US December ISM services PMI at 54.4hit a new one-year high, demand solid, hiring rebounded.

US claimed to detain two oil tankers, including one flying the Russian flag; Russian Ministry of Transport confirmed US boarding, said lost contact with "Marinella"; Russiacondemned US seizure of Russian oil tanker, demands humane treatment of Russian citizens; White House: crew may be brought to US for trial.

Trumpsays Venezuela will deliver 30-50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US; White House says US began global marketing of Venezuelan oil, US Energy Secretarysays will control Venezuela oil sales "indefinitely".

Trumpsays US military budget should be $1.5 trillion in 2027.

"First pre-IPO AI model stock" Zhipu AIHong Kong public offering oversubscribed over 1000 times, issue price HK$116.20, lists on HKEX Thursday; another AI model unicorn MiniMax reportedly prices at top end for HK IPO, valuation exceeds HK$46 billion.

Kunlunxin rushes HKEX IPO, reportedly to raise up to $2 billion.

Gemini TV debuts at CES, Google fires the first shot in the living room revolution.

Muskagrees with TSMC's worries about chip oversupply, saying power and liquid cooling can't catch up; Musk's 2026 vision: We've reached a "technological singularity", AI and robots are unstoppable, short-term is turmoil and challenge, long-term is an era of abundance.

Market Close

European and US Stock Markets: S&P 500 fell 0.34% to 6920.93; Dow fell 0.94% to 48,996.08; Nasdaq rose 0.16% to 23,584.275. Europe STOXX 600 fell 0.05% to 604.99.

A-shares: SSE up 0.05% to 4085.77. Shenzhen up 0.06% to 14030.56. ChiNext up 0.31% to 3329.69.

Bond Market: At close, US 10-year benchmark Treasury yields about 4.15%, down about 2 bp intraday; 2-year Treasury yields about 3.47%, up about 1 bp intraday.

Commodities: WTI Feb crude futures down 2% to $55.99/bbl; Brent Mar crude down 1.22% to $59.96/bbl. COMEX Feb gold futures down 0.75% to $4462.5/oz. COMEX Mar silver down 4.23% to $77.613/oz. LME copper down nearly 2.6% to $12,900/ton. LME nickel down about 3.4% to $17,895/ton.

Headline Details

Global Heavyweights

China's Dec forex reserves were up 0.34% MoM, PBOC increased gold reserves for 14 months consecutively. By end of December 2025, China's reserves were $3.3579 trillion, up $11.5bn over November, an increase of 0.34%. PBOC data: Dec gold reserves at 74.15mn oz (approx 2,306.323t), up 30k oz (about 0.93t) MoM.

Eight departments: Accelerate smart terminal upgrades, by 2027 China’s key AI tech will achieve secure, reliable supply. MIIT and seven other departments issued the "AI+ Manufacturing" Special Action Implementation Opinions, promoting 3-5 universal large models in manufacturing, forming special and full-coverage industry models, building 100 high-quality industrial data sets, promoting 500 typical application scenarios; cultivating 2-3 globally influential ecosystem leaders and a batch of specialized and innovative SMEs, building a batch of intelligent application service providers, and naming 1000 benchmark enterprises. Building world-leading open source ecosystem, improving security governance, contributing China's solutions to AI development.

US to "resell" Venezuelan oil, and demands Venezuela cut ties with China, Russia, Chinese Foreign Ministry response: Typical bullying. According to Shangguan News, Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, Venezuela is a sovereign nation, owning full and permanent sovereignty over its resources and economic activities. The US forcibly intervened in Venezuela, and demands "America First" in its resources, which is classic bullying violating international law and Venezuela's sovereignty and harming its people's rights. China strongly condemns this.

Precious metals plunge, Major commodity index rebalancing starts Thursday. Spot gold broke the $4450/oz level; spot silver intraday drop over 3%; spot platinum dropped over 7%, spot palladium down over 5%. Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalances Jan 8-14, passive funds "technically sell-off" induces liquidity shock. Silver faces a massive 9% position sell pressure, gold signals a bearish technical reversal, commodities now face a serious liquidity test after their party.

"Mini non-farm" mild recovery, US Dec ADP employment rose by 41,000, reversing November's drop but below expected. US December ADP private jobs rose moderately, labor demand remains weak, with December's increase below economists' forecast of 50,000.

US November JOLTS job openings drop to a one-year low, less than unemployed for first time in four years, hiring slows. November job openings fell from a revised 7.45m previous to 7.146m, far below expectations. Vacancies per unemployed fell to 0.9, lowest since March 2021, first time under 1 in four years. Hiring also fell to the lowest since mid-2024.

US December ISM Services PMI 54.4, a new high in over a year, demand robust, hiring warming. December ISM Services PMI climbed 1.8pts to 54.4, highest since Oct 2024. New orders made the biggest gain since Sep 2024, demand rebounded pushing services employment to the healthiest rise since Feb, price increase slowed to a nine-month low.

US claims to detain two oil tankers, including one flying the Russian flag. Russian Ministry of Transport confirms US boarding, says lost contact with "Mariella". Russia condemns US seizure and demands humane treatment for its citizens.

Trump says Venezuela will deliver 30-50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US. The oil will be sold at market price, and the funds will be administered by Trump to ensure they're used "for the benefit of Venezuela and American people".

Trump says US military budget should be $1.5 trillion in 2027. Trump said tariffs from foreign countries brought in "huge revenue", so he can maintain the $1.5 trillion budget, as opposed to $1 trillion otherwise.

Venezuela stock market surges 50% in a day! "Political shift" triggers capital frenzy? Since Maduro was removed, Venezuela's stock market has risen 74%, with the oil, infrastructure and finance sectors in focus. Optimism is driven by Trump administration's hundreds-billion-dollar oil revival plan; market expects Venezuela to escape long sanctions and normalize its economy.

"First pre-IPO model stock"Zhipu AI Hong Kong offering oversubscribed over 1000 times, issue price HK$116.20, lists on Thursday. Zhipu AI lists Jan 8, Thursday, price HK$116.2, offering was 1159.46x subscribed, pre-market Wednesday up nearly 38%. Raised about HK$4.17bn, has self-developed GLM tech, H1 2025 revenue RMB 191mn, loss up to RMB 2.358bn.

Kunlunxin rushes HK IPO, reportedly to raise up to $2bn. Baidu AI chip arm Kunlunxin starts HK IPO plans, sources: aiming for $2bn at most. The company is scaling in internet and finance, has big orders from China Mobile, 2025 revenue forecast near RMB 5bn, ranks top among domestic chips; listing shows AI compute autonomy is speeding up in China.

Gemini TV debuts at CES, Google fires first shot in living room revolution. At CES 2026, Google launched Gemini AI-embedded smart TV: enables searching, personalized recommendations, and learning via natural language dialogue, can be a hub for whole-home smart device control.

TSMC worries about chip glut? Musk: They're right, power and liquid cooling lag. Musk agrees with TSMC's oversupply concerns, says AI bottleneck is shifting from chip manufacturing to "chip bootstrapping"—the speed of power, transformers, and cooling deployment. These infrastructure expansions are linear, falling far behind chips' exponential growth in capacity.

Musk’s 2026 vision: We’re at the “technological singularity”—AI and robots are unstoppable, short term is turmoil & challenge, long term is an age of abundance. Musk predicts AGI by 2026, people experiencing a "supersonic tsunami" technological singularity. He predicts AI replacing white-collar workers and surgeons, society moving through turmoil to "universally high income" abundant era. He praises Chinese energy infrastructure, says compute "watt" may become new currency, and compute deployment will go interstellar.

Selected analyst reports

Goldman Sachs firmly optimistic about China stocks: AI and overseas drive profits, MSCI China may rise 20% this year. Goldman bullish on 2026 Chinese stocks, expects MSCI China up 20%, CSI300 up 12%. Market shifts from valuation recovery to profit-driven, corporate profit may accelerate from 4% to 14% due to AI commercialization, overseas expansion, and anti-involution policies, TMT profit growth at 20%. Strong capital flow, Southbound funds may reach $200bn, domestic reallocation may bring RMB 3trn.

Goldman sharply raises PCB market forecast: volume & price rise + spec upgrades, two-year CAGR may break 140%! Goldman says AI server PCB market faces structural boom, expects 2027 TAM at $26.6bn and $18.3bn, driven by Nvidia's new VR200/300 rack replacing cables with high-value PCB. Spec upgrades and yield decline drive single-machine value and material demand; benefits top PCB/CCL suppliers.

CoWoS capacity boost, JPMorgan again raises TPU forecast: Shipments may hit 3.7m and 5m units. JPM raises its 2026 and 2027 CoWoS forecast by 8% and 13%: TSMC's CoWoS monthly capacity to reach 115k wafers by end-2026; sustained increase will strongly support TPU shipment growth.

Domestic Macro

Foreign media: Canadian PM’s office announces PM Carney to visit China next week. Global Times: Canadian PM's office announced on 7th local time, PM Carney to visit China Jan 13–17, first PM China visit since Dec 2017. Discussions will be on trade, energy, agriculture, international security.

MIIT: Exploring ways to build a “model pool” based on industrial internet platforms, foster a batch of model products online. Goals include scaling up intelligence level of industrial internet platforms—via deep learning, large models etc, strengthen element connections, intelligent analysis, resource allocation. Encourage rapid innovation in low-/no-code AI, boost APP development and integration efficiency. By 2028, overhaul at least 50,000 enterprises with upgraded networks.

Domestic Companies

First central SOE AI unicorn emerges, backed by self-developed large model and four national team capitals. China Telecom AI company introduces strategic national capital, becomes central SOE's first AI unicorn, making a key leap from self R&D to market validation. With “Xingchen” model series and strong industrial implementation, leveraging telecom scenes to accelerate AI autonomy and scale application via long-termist strategy.

Shanghai Micro Electronics: Latest capital moves. Shanghai Securities News: asset integration emerges in domestic lithography—SMEE Micro Equipment fully acquires WeiYao Industry, clarification of positioning. Company focuses on packaging litho equipment, delivered 500th stepper, successfully developed first 350nm stepper in-house.

"Yizhongtian": Sustained boom behind the compute revolution—silicon photonics now the new king. Guosheng Securities: Silicon photonics poised to break traditional "power wall" and "volume wall" for optical modules. The revolution shifts core profits from upstream optoelectronics to midstream PIC design (silicon photonic chip design), sharply boosting Chinese vendors’ global margin and bargaining power.

Overseas Macro

US “New Monroe Doctrine”: Even more “America First”, even more blatant. Global Times: Commentary notes Trump upgraded "Monroe Doctrine" to "Tangluoism", declaring the Western Hemisphere as US core interest, authorizing direct military intervention. From attacking Venezuela to threatening Colombia, Mexico, turning "The Americas are Americans'” to “The Americas are Americans’ (meaning US citizens)".

Trump says to ban institutional investors from buying US single-family homes, Blackstone falls 9.3%. Trump said he’ll "immediately act to prohibit large institutional investors purchasing single-family homes", to improve affordability. Blackstone's stock plunged 9.3%, then pared losses. Blackstone is a big real estate investor; rental company American Homes 4 Rent fell 11%, Invitation Homes Inc. fell 10%, builder Builders FirstSource Inc. dropped over 5%. S&P Homebuilders Index slid up to 2.2%, 15 of 18 constituents declined.

Goldman strategists: Beware US stock “high valuation, high concentration, high rally”; historically often ends in steep fall. GS's Snider projects S&P 500 to 7600, but warns: current 22x PE is near 2000 bubble peak; top 10 stocks are 41% of market, just like 1929 and 2000 crashes. The bigger risk is surging AI spend. Despite bubble talk, no sign of extreme irrational exuberance yet.

Eurozone Dec CPI slows to 2%, market expects ECB to "stay put" for long. Dec Eurozone inflation fell to ECB’s 2% target, core CPI still declining, confirming rates likely to stay unchanged. Service inflation and wage pressure remain, but unless outlook shifts, ECB is likely to keep policy, betting on rate cuts ticked up slightly.

International Companies

Storage chip prices out of control! Wall Street again lifts forecast: DRAM may soar 88% in 2026, NAND up 74%. With proliferation of AI Agents and CPU memory need surge, Citi upgrades server DRAM ASP growth forecast to 144%, enterprise SSD ASP forecast up 87%. Analysts say the market will enter an extremely dramatic sellers’ market, pricing power in hands of Samsung and other giants.

Morgan Stanley research: Memory prices surge hits Android and PC both, but Apple won’t raise prices this year. MS says cost pressure to push OEMs to hike prices sharply in H1 2026, possibly leading to weaker Android/Windows PC shipments. Apple locked in cheap memory deals, won’t raise prices, may grow iPhone & Mac share in 2026. Meanwhile, hard disk shortage intensifies, 12-month supply gap hits 200EB; server makers like Dell, HP may start mass layoffs to protect margins.

Samsung warns: memory costs surge, all electronics face price hikes. Samsung Electronics president: semiconductor supply issues affect everyone, component costs rising. Samsung tries not to pass costs to customers, but may have to reprice all products. Means widespread electronics—phones, laptops, smart home—may soon see price hikes.

Report: Anthropic seeks $10bn at pre-money $350bn, valuation nearly doubled in 4 months! Media reports Anthropic plans $10bn raise at $350bn pre-money, nearly 2x its value four months ago. Singapore GIC and Coatue to co-lead the round.

Musk reveals: He pushed OpenAI to pick Microsoft over Amazon, says Bezos was "a bit too clever". Musk advised OpenAI's Altman in 2016 to favor Microsoft over Amazon for cloud, called Bezos "a bit too clever". Altman replied Amazon terms harsh and tech not good.

Industry/Concepts

1, Semiconductors | Ministry of Commerce announced a dumping investigation on dichlorosilane imported from Japan beginning Jan 7, 2026. The dumping investigation covers July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, industrial damage period is Jan 1, 2022 to June 30, 2025. The investigated product: dichlorosilane, also called dichlorosilane or dichloromethylsilane, mainly used in chip manufacturing (such as epitaxial, SiC, SiN, SiO2, and polysilicon thin films), logic/memory/analog chips, and precursor for silicon-based compounds and polysilazane.

2, Artificial Intelligence | MIIT and 7 other departments issued the "AI + Manufacturing" special action plan; by 2027, China's key AI technologies will have secure, reliable supply and industry size and enablement level at world-leading position. Promotes 3-5 universal base models deeply used in manufacturing, forms special/full coverage industrial AI models, builds 100 top-quality industrial data sets, scales 500 typical scenarios. Cultivates 2-3 global ecosystem leaders, a batch of specialized/innovative SMEs, builds intelligent application vendors, selects 1000 model enterprises. Builds world-leading open source ecosystem, upgrades security governance, brings China’s solutions to AI.

3, Unmanned Logistics | China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released December 2025 China Logistics Prosperity Index. Data shows quarterly index averages steadily rising, December index highest for 2025, with physical logistics demand still active. December 2025 index at 52.4%, up 1.5ppt MOM, key sub-indices—total business, equipment utilization, new orders, fund turnover, employment—all in expansion range and continue to rise.

4, AI Hardware | Alibaba Cloud Tongyi AI hardware expo to be held Jan 8-11 in Shenzhen. The event focuses on “Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis” concept, showcasing thousands of smart hardware for life, work, mobility, entertainment; immersive tech interactions for all ages to experience the AI hardware industry and explore natural-tech fusion.

5, Paper Making | Sina Finance: In early 2026, Suzano, world's biggest pulp producer, announced pulp prices hike from January for Europe/North America by $120/ton, Asia by $20/ton. This boosts spot pulp prices, showing supply tightness; price hike may be due to costs or demand surge, may push up prices globally.

6, Civil Aviation | Securities Times: On January 6, the national civil aviation work conference was held in Beijing. The meeting reviewed achievements of civil aviation in 2025 and the "14th Five-Year" plan, coordinated "15th Five-Year" planning, and studied main tasks for 2026.

7, Semiconductors | The first domestic 2D semiconductor engineering demonstration line launched in Shanghai, scheduled to be operational by June this year.

Today's Headlines Preview

US weekly initial jobless claims.

US October trade balance.

Eurozone November PPI.

Bloomberg Commodity Index Rebalancing.

Zhipu HK IPO. Tian Shu Zhixin HK IPO.

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets have risks, investment must be prudent. This article is not individual investment advice, nor does it consider users’ special objectives, financial status, or needs. Users should consider if any opinions, views, or conclusions herein fit their situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```