Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | November 7, 2025

Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | November 7, 2025

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Market Overview

The number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in October hit the highest level for this period in over two decades. Coupled with market doubts about AI's ROI and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, US stocks and cryptocurrencies sold off, with the fear index VIX once topping 20.

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks led the drop in US stocks, Nvidia fell for a third consecutive session, down 3.6% on the day. Tesla dropped 3.5%, but after-hours its shareholders' meeting approved Musk's trillion-dollar compensation plan, the stock price surged more than 2% then fell back. Microsoft dropped for seven consecutive sessions. AMD plunged more than 7%. Oracle dropped nearly 2.6%, erasing all previous gains due to large orders. DoorDash fell nearly 18% post-earnings. The China concept stock index slipped 0.03%, outperforming the US market with XPeng surging nearly 10%.

Risk aversion soared, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 7.6 basis points, the largest single-day drop in two months. The dollar fell for a second day, down 0.46% on the day. Bitcoin dropped 2.5%, Ethereum was down more than 5.6% at one point. As the dollar weakened, gold rose as much as 1% but then reversed, failing to hold above $4,000. Oil first rose then fell, with US crude at one point dropping 2.77% from its daily high.

During the Asian session, A and H shares closed strongly higher, the Shanghai Composite returning above 4,000 points, ChiNext up 1.8%, computing hardware industrial chain surged, Hang Seng up over 2%, with machinery, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors leading.

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Top News

The US officially published a new list of critical minerals, including copper for the first time, as well as silver, uranium and potash.

How uncertain is the Fed's December rate cut? This year's voting members dared not act due to government shutdown, next year's voters worry more about inflation.

The AI revolution accelerates the layoff wave: US October Challenger layoffs surged 175.3% year-on-year, a two-decade high. US private data firm Revelio Labs: October nonfarm went negative, jobs fell by 9,100. National Retail Federation: US holiday retail hiring to hit the lowest since the financial crisis, spending may top $1 trillion for the first time.

The Bank of England stands pat, interest rates remain at 4%, expectations for a December cut rise.

Jensen Huang: China will beat the US in AI race.

Aimed at Nvidia, reports say Google is to launch the most powerful AI chip TPU Ironwood, 4x performance, Anthropic places large orders.

No surprises, Tesla shareholders approve Musk's “trillion-dollar pay package”.

OpenAI executive’s gaffe stirs controversy, Trump adviser says: If AI companies fail, so be it, US government won’t rescue them. OpenAI CFO: No IPO planned short term, market needs to be more bullish on AI, hopes government guarantees financing for data centers.

Trump reaches deal with Lilly and Novo Nordisk: GLP-1 weight loss drugs get biggest price cut in history, now $245/month.

 

Market Close

US & European Stock Markets: S&P 500 fell 1.12% to 6720.32. Dow fell 0.84% to 46912.30. Nasdaq fell 1.90% to 23053.993. Europe's STOXX 600 closed down 0.70% at 567.90.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%. Shenzhen Component closed at 13452.42, up 1.73%. ChiNext closed at 3224.62, up 1.84%.

Bond Market: 10-year US Treasury yield fell 7.01bp to 4.0890%. 2-year US Treasury yield fell 6.59bp to 3.5636%.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3987.40/oz. WTI Dec oil futures fell 0.29% to $59.43/bbl. Brent Jan oil futures fell 0.22% to $63.38/bbl.

Top News Details

Global Headlines

US publishes revised critical minerals list—copper included for the first time; silver, uranium, and potash added. The latest list from the US Geological Survey (USGS) under the Department of the Interior includes copper for the first time, marking the most significant change since 2018. Unlike the draft list released at the end of August, the final list also includes metallurgical coal and uranium. This list decides which commodities will be included in the Trump administration's Section 232 critical minerals investigations, with future implications for tariffs and trade restrictions.

Fed's direction for December rate cut unclear, this year's voting members dared not act due to government shutdown, next year's members worry more about inflation. Current voting member Goolsbee believes the shutdown led to missing crucial inflation data; the labor market has more private data sources, but inflation data heavily rely on government releases. Next year’s voter Harker says she remains concerned about high inflation, which is a more pressing issue than employment; during a shut government and lack of official data, she relies more on business feedback about inflation. Fed Governor Barr said they must watch how to ensure a sound labor market. “Fed 3rd-in-command” Williams said the US is still in a low neutral rate era, and actual data is more important than neutral rate estimates for current decisions.

AI revolution accelerates layoffs! US October Challenger layoffs up 175.3% YoY, a two-decade record. The Challenger report shows US corporates announced 153,074 layoffs in October, up 175.3% YoY, the highest in 20 years. YTD, total US layoffs surpassed 1 million, highest since the pandemic; hiring plans at companies for the same period hit the lowest since 2011.

US private data provider Revelio Labs: October nonfarm goes negative, jobs decline by 9,100. The US labor market showed contraction signals in October; private data from Revelio Labs showed a decrease in nonfarm payrolls by 9,100 (previous month was +33,000). Market activity also cooled, both hiring and quit rates slowing, indicating lower employee mobility and weaker economic expansion momentum.

US holiday retail hiring this year to be lowest since the financial crisis, but spending to top $1 trillion for the first time. The National Retail Federation (NRF) said Thursday that US retailers expect holiday season hiring at 265,000–365,000, the lowest in at least 15 years. Last year, retailers hired 442,000 seasonal staff. Still, the NRF expects holiday spending from Nov 1 to Dec 31 to hit a record $1.1–1.2 trillion, passing $1 trillion for the first time.

Bank of England stands pat, keeps rate unchanged at 4%, expectations for Dec cut rise. For the first time since the start of the rate-cut cycle last August, the BOE paused its sequence of rate cuts. Minutes showed Bailey as the most dovish among those favoring holding rates, saying inflation risks “have recently declined and become more balanced.” The BOE updated its policy guidance to say rates “may continue on a gradual downward path,” deleting “cautious” from its statement.

Jensen Huang: China will beat US in AI. Huang says China will surpass the US in the AI race due to lower energy costs and a more relaxed regulatory environment.

Targeting Nvidia, Google reportedly to launch most powerful AI chip TPU Ironwood, 4x performance, big order from Anthropic. The chip links up to 9,216 chips per cluster; Google claims it removes "the data bottleneck for the harshest models.” While most large language models and AI workloads use Nvidia GPUs, Google’s TPUs as custom silicon yield price, performance, and efficiency advantages. AI startup Anthropic plans to use up to a million TPUs to run its Claude model.

No surprises: Tesla shareholders approve Musk’s “trillion-dollar compensation”.

OpenAI executive’s gaffe, Trump adviser says: If AI companies fail, so be it, US government won’t rescue them. On Wednesday, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar suggested the US government could guarantee data center financing. Trump administration AI adviser David Sacks responded on Thursday, “the US has at least 5 leading AI companies; if one fails, others will take its place.” The issue escalated; OpenAI CEO Altman said, “We don’t need or want the US government to guarantee OpenAI’s data centers.”

Trump strikes deal with Lilly, Novo Nordisk: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs see the biggest price cut ever, now $245 a month. Trump announced a price cut to $245/month for GLP-1 drugs, with Medicare reimbursement from 2026. Analysis says this will boost access and expand the market, with more private insurers likely to follow.

History repeats or pure coincidence? First Burry shorts, then Deutsche Bank hedges—“Big Short 2.0” truly reappears! In 2008, Michael Burry became famous for shorting the housing bubble, and DB promoted synthetic CDOs for risk hedging. Now Burry is warning about an AI bubble, with 80% of his portfolio betting on AI crash; DB is also considering shorting AI stocks and exploring "synthetic risk transfer" (SRT) to package and sell data center loan default risks.

Dalio: The Fed ending QT = stimulating the economy in a bubble; America’s “big debt cycle” at its riskiest stage! Powell said “will increase reserves at an appropriate time”; Dalio argues this means QE is returning, but unlike prior times (during recessions), now there are enormous bubbles and fiscal policy is highly stimulative—huge debts and deficits funded by massive bond issues, making QE essentially monetizing government debt, which could repeat a liquidity frenzy like 1999 before the bubble burst.

Goldman Sachs interprets "US Supreme Court tariff hearing": Result still uncertain, result by Dec or Jan, any refund would take months; small countries may benefit, big countries little effect. GS says hearings are deadlocked, with most judges skeptical but outcome undecided; ruling likely in Dec 2025 or Jan 2026. The result may slightly lower tariffs for a few small partners, but net impact on major trade partners would be minimal.

Domestic Macro

Xi Jinping: Earnestly study and implement the spirit of the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee; build Hainan Free Trade Port to a high standard. Xi emphasized expanding institutional openness steadily, further liberalizing and facilitating trade and investment, advancing the opening of goods and factor flows, promoting cross-border movement of production factors, striving to build a modern industrial system with Hainan characteristics, optimizing leading industries, integrating tech and industrial innovation, and striving for new breakthroughs in developing new quality productive forces.

For the first time in history, China’s “borrowing rate” matches the US. On Thursday, China’s Ministry of Finance issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds, three-year coupon at 3.625%, on par with US Treasuries of the same maturity. Five-year bonds priced just 0.02 percentage points higher than US Treasuries. The five-year bonds were oversubscribed 30x, half subscribed by central banks and sovereign funds, showing strong international confidence in China’s sovereign credit.

National-level fund increases investment in Hyperfusion. According to Shanghai Securities News, Hyperfusion Digital Technology Co., spun off from Huawei's x86 server business, received a strategic investment from the national fund while preparing for IPO. With a leading position in liquid-cooled servers, it has achieved rapid revenue growth from 10 billion yuan in 2022 to 40 billion in 2024 and is now building its financial team to speed up its listing plan.

Domestic Companies/Industries

Short positions surge on Xiaomi—up 53% last week, storage prices surge are a key factor. According to the latest Goldman Sachs report, hedge funds consider Xiaomi at least a consensus short/sell in the short term due to lack of catalysts. GS research cut Xiaomi’s target price, citing: surging RAM prices squeezing smartphone margins, IoT business growth falling to single digits, and delayed EV factory affecting deliveries.

Even busier than Shuibei's gold market: Shenzhen Huaqiangbei sees storage prices double! According to merchants, “every day prices rise, may be even higher later”, but they dare not stockpile. A surge in demand for AI compute has caused DDR4 and SSD prices to double, with "one price per day" occurrences. The volatility comes as global memory giants shift production towards more profitable HBM and DDR5, slashing DDR4 supply; AI server memory requirements are 8x that of conventional servers, and severe supply-demand imbalances drive a new memory price upcycle.

Hua Hong Semiconductor Q3 revenue up 20.7% YoY, strong 12-inch wafer demand, Q4 revenue seen rise to $650–660 million. Q3 revenue US$635.2 million, net profit down 42.6% YoY but up 223.5% from the last quarter. 12-inch business accounted for 59.3% of income. Looking forward, Q4 sales are expected to climb to $650–660 million, with gross margin to remain at 12–14%.

TSMC to exit mature nodes. As TSMC pivots focus to advanced nodes, it also suggests clients shift mature node orders to subsidiary Vanguard. Through licensing and selling 12-inch mature equipment to Vanguard, TSMC lets Vanguard undertake lower-margin mature orders released from TSMC.

BYD enters Japan with K-cars: could take 30% share, yearly profit boost of 400–1000 million RMB, more strategic significance than numbers. JP Morgan reports K-cars are 30–40% of Japan’s car sales, or 1.2 million units/year. Though profit is only 1–2% of BYD’s 2026 projected earnings, it's strategically significant, showing BYD's long-term commitment to the international market, as its first model designed specifically for overseas needs, marking a move from simple exports to deep local operations by Chinese carmakers.

Nonferrous metals rally, aluminum leads, Tianfeng claims “electrolytic aluminum perfectly fuses flexibility and dividends”. Tianfeng Securities points out the sector is shifting from cyclical to a dividend asset. 2024 sector dividend yield at 6%, highest among major high-dividend industries. Supply: China's capacity near 45 million ton policy cap, utilization at 97.5%. Demand structure improving, transport and power together over 43%. The sector’s capex peak has passed, free cash flow is up, ROE stability improved, high profits likely sustainable.

Overseas Macro

US holds Central Asia summit, Trump starts “resource war”. Analysts say this signals Trump is upping the bid for control over key Central Asian resources. Before the summit, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, focusing on potential win-win cooperation in energy, critical minerals, transportation, and logistics.

Not only AI has a “closed loop”—US stocks do too: Layoffs boost stock prices, stock market rises, spurs consumption, strong consumption supports earnings. The US economy is in a “reflexivity” loop: cost cuts boost stocks, wealth effect spurs spending, which supports earnings. JPMorgan warns this asset-price-driven resilience is unsustainable: savings rates are falling, income expectations are weak, weakening spending power. If stocks fall, current “cushion” could quickly turn into an “amplifier” for downturns.

Buffett & Barclays indicators both flash “red", US stocks in historic bubble! Buffett indicator shows US market cap (now ~$72T) > 2x GDP—more than the pandemic record. The Barclays indicator shows 11% of stocks in a frenzy phase, similar only to the 1999 dotcom bubble and 2021 meme stock craze.

Reports: Trump considers multiple offensive options against Venezuela, including seizing oil fields, oil price rises! The US is considering multiple military options against Venezuela, including special ops and seizing oil fields, possibly bypassing Congressional limits. White House internal disagreements widen, geopolitics heat up.

Bitcoin’s current correction: late in the “4-year cycle”, government shutdown worsened liquidity shock. Citi reports October 10’s crypto wipeout hurt investor risk appetite. US spot ETF inflows have slowed markedly in recent weeks. On-chain data: whales are shrinking, smallholder wallets up. Funding rates down, reflecting weak leverage demand. Technically, BTC trades below the 200-day MA, which could further dampen demand. Citi still believes adoption by FAs and other investors is in early stages, with spot ETF flows being the key sentiment gauge.

Overseas Companies

Report: Google plans more investment in Anthropic—valuation may top $350B. Google is in talks to up its Anthropic investment, potentially raising its valuation above $350 billion and further solidifying its contest with Microsoft-backed OpenAI. Anthropic is seeking a high valuation with aggressive forecasts, aiming for $70B revenue by 2028, and targeting high capital efficiency to rival OpenAI’s scale; its Claude Code coding assistant’s annualized revenue is near $10B.

Google Cloud’s high growth just starting! Morgan Stanley: conservatively, revenues could top 50% next year. Morgan Stanley sees, by breaking down Google Cloud’s “backlog” and “on-demand” businesses, that even under conservative assumptions, Google Cloud could grow over 50% in revenue in 2026. Cloud’s continued strong performance will be key for company multiples expansion and AI-driven share price outperformance.

Microsoft AI forms SuperIntelligence team, aiming for new “superintelligence” track. The goal is to develop systems surpassing AGI—superintelligence—for healthcare, clean energy, and personal AI assistants. This marks a Microsoft strategic shift after renegotiating its OpenAI deal—which previously barred it from developing AGI, but the new deal scrapped this restriction.

AI data center demand surges, Coherent Q1 revenue up 17% YoY, optical product orders hit record. Quarterly revenues $1.58B, up 17% YoY, beat market forecast of $1.54B. EPS $1.16, beating Wall Street consensus $1.04; company beat earnings forecasts for fourth straight quarter, mainly due to strong AI datacenter & communications demand.

Citadel leads Wall Street consortium to invest in Ripple, now valued at $40B+, surpassing Circle. The new mark makes Ripple one of the world’s highest-valued unlisted crypto companies.

Everything can be bet on: America enters “bet-on-everything” era! Robinhood Q3 revenue doubled to a record $1.27B, forecast market business contributed ~$25M; now you can bet on everything from the S&P500 year-end level to Oscars, for total event contracts traded topping 4B. Forecast market growing rapidly, as Piper Sandler estimates peers Kalshi and Polymarket nearly doubled volumes in October. Thanks to relaxed regulation under Trump, 90% of Robinhood’s income is from options and crypto, not stocks, making “betting on everything” the new finance platform growth engine.

Berkshire to issue yen bonds—preparing to buy more of the big Japanese trading houses? Berkshire plans to sell more yen bonds, sparking speculation it will buy more of the five big Japanese trading houses. Analysts say Buffett’s yen financing means he has already locked in Japanese opportunities; it’s also seen as an important indicator of sentiment in the Japanese credit market, with Itochu, Mitsubishi & others up over 2%, beating the TOPIX.

Duolingo guidance disappoints, stock plunges nearly 30%! CEO: Not chasing profits now, just teaching well. Duolingo shares tumbled nearly 30% intraday Thursday after Q4 guidance missed estimates. The company will prioritize long-term projects and teaching quality over short-term profit. Q3 revenue, net profits and paid users were all ahead of expectations, but daily/monthly actives lagged; investors worry the struggle between user growth and monetization will hamper short term performance.

Sectors/Concepts

1. Optical Modules | On Nov 6, US market leader Coherent reported Q1 revenue of $1.58B, beating the $1.54B estimate; adjusted EPS $1.16, estimate $1.05. Growth driven by strong demand from AIDC and communications; with capacity expansion, strong annual growth expected. Shares jumped pre-market.

Comment: Galaxy Securities sees AI datacenter architecture upgrades driving high-end optical module demand, creating long-term sector momentum. LightCounting projects global Ethernet optical module market to grow 50% through 2025, then steady at 15–18% CAGR. Technically, 800G/1.6T eras favor pluggable modules, but for 3.2T and higher, LPO/CPO are maturing, with CPO likely to be key for scale-up multi-rack systems. Overall, AI datacenter evolution will keep driving high-end module demand and industry growth.

2. Semiconductors | Recently, AMD CEO Lisa Su revealed in a Q3 call that its Instinct MI308 AI chip has export licenses for China, but no revenue from China is factored into Q4 yet. The chip is seen as a strong rival to Nvidia’s H20. The fate of Blackwell AI chips for China remains pending, giving AMD a slight edge in the China market for now.

Comment: Analysts say AMD's AI portfolio is deepening markedly. Its Instinct Ml350 series excels in memory bandwidth and capacity, rivaling or even surpassing competitors in key tasks with lower cost and complexity. MI355 adoption is ramping faster than expected, with many new clients in 90 days; mass production started early, and scale-up is expected in H2. AI chips’ rapid growth brings new opportunities for semiconductor equipment and more.

3. Nuclear Energy | The China Energy Research Society, together with China General Nuclear, China National Nuclear Corp, China Huaneng, plans to hold the 4th China Nuclear Energy High-Quality Development Conference and Shenzhen International Nuclear Innovation Expo on Nov 12-14 in Shenzhen. With the theme “Nuclear aggregates Bay Area, energizes the world”, the event aims to be a world-class nuclear expo and global industry exchange event.

Comment: Huafu Securities says global nuclear power generation growth in past decade was mainly in Asia. Of 68 new reactors worldwide, 56 are in Asia; of 70 under construction, 59 are in Asia. Of 7 reactors grid-connected in 2024, three are in China. Nuclear power plants have 7,000+ annual operating hours, leading all power sources, and emit no SO2, NOx, smoke, or CO2. As importance grows, nuclear's roles in desalination, hydrogen, and medical shielding will also increase.

4. 5G | CCTV reported that the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) issued the world's first industrial 5G standard, jointly drafted by China and Germany, filling an international gap. The standard focuses on industrial field applications of 5G, with multiple scenarios and unified specs for planning, design, construction, to optimization, helping users, designers, and manufacturers adopt 5G globally.

Comment: According to China Securities News, deep 5G+industry integration is key to worldwide digitalization and smart transformation. This standard is a milestone and marks China’s leadership in “5G+industry”; in 2025, global industrial 5G market to reach 345.7B RMB, China 98.3B. Global CAGR (2025–2032) at 41.32%, projected to surpass 3.89T RMB in 2032.

5. Commercial Aviation | Science Daily reports that at the 27th China International High-Tech Fair (Nov 14-16), China will globally debut space tourism. The exhibition area is expected at 400,000 square meters, with 22 expo zones covering major equipment, AI, robotics, semiconductors, consumer electronics, low-altitude economy, commercial space, etc.

Comment: As technology advances, more countries realize the “space vision” will drive world economic growth, making space a new competitive window. The global space economy could top $1 trillion by 2030. China is already moving to commercialize space tourism. As space capacities grow, costs will drop; once commercial, there will be broad global demand and prospects.

6. OLED | CCTV reports that three kinds of advanced equipment for 8.6-generation OLED mass production were just released in Chengdu, a major breakthrough for China in display equipment. OLED screens are now extending from phones to PCs and in-car displays. These newly launched machines—a versatile inkjet thin-film deposition platform, the first domestic large-panel lamination tool, and the first domestic EHD dispensing tool—are for use in 8.6-gen OLED manufacturing lines.

Today's Key Events Preview

China October trade balance.

China October forex reserves.

US November University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Fed Governor Milan, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, New York Fed President Williams

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market is risky; investments need caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their own circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk. ```