``` Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | October 4, 2025 ```

``` Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | October 4, 2025 ```

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

With the absence of the major US nonfarm payroll data, the S&P accomplished a thrilling six-day rally, reaching a new high. After the US ISM services data, the Nasdaq turned downward. Nvidia fell from record highs, but was up over 5% for the week overall. Palantir fell over 7%. USA Rare Earth rose 14%. The pan-European stock index rose nearly 3% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain in five months.

After the US ISM data, the US 2-year Treasury yield hit a daily low. US Treasuries had their best single-week performance in a month.

Bitcoin briefly topped $124,000, approaching a record high, and rose over 10% for the week.

Oil prices rose for the first time this week, but Brent crude was still down over 8% cumulatively, posting the largest weekly drop in three months. Gold futures closed at record highs for the fourth day in a row, marking a seven-week gain streak. Silver rebounded over 3%, to a fourteen-year high. NY copper rose over 7% for the week.

During Asian hours, Hong Kong stocks paused their rallies, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.9%, most internet tech stocks declined, Kuaishou fell nearly 4%, while Alibaba hit new highs.

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Top News

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers reporters' questions regarding Mexico's recent multiple anti-dumping investigations against China.

Bullish on Chinese tech stocks' AI narrative, "Sister Wood" (Cathie Wood) continued to increase holdings of Alibaba and Baidu this week! Copper prices reached year-to-date highs, but "Without China, there is no perfect bull market".

US September ISM Non-manufacturing PMI hits 50, significantly below expectations, and business activity is the worst since 2020. Nonfarm payroll data has not yet been released. Chicago Fed President: September unemployment rate expected to be 4.3%, labor market stable.

Milan, a Fed board member trusted by Trump: Rising rents may change his inflation expectations. Fed Vice Chair warns of dual challenges with jobs and inflation. Dallas Fed President urges caution with rate cuts. The "New Fed News Agency" criticizes the popular candidate for Fed Chair, Hassett.

The White House is concerned about a government shutdown delaying economic data releases, while Democrats again block funding bills.

Trump proposes "universal handouts" again: Considering using tariff revenues for rebates, about $1,000–$2,000 per person.

Media reports that Trump is considering drastic tariff exemptions for US-made autos, causing auto stocks to rise.

Middle East "investment for chips" deal proceeds slowly, and it's reported that Jensen Huang is frustrated.

OpenAI's limited edition Sora is hugely popular, clinching the top US Apple App ranking on its fourth day online.

iPhone 17 launches strong, Morgan Stanley is even more optimistic: there are still 1 billion old devices in storage, and iPhone 18 will be even better.

 

Market Closing Report

US & European Markets: S&P 500 up 0.01% to 6715.79, up 1.09% for the week. Dow Jones up 0.51% to 46,758.28, up 1.10% for the week. Nasdaq down 0.28% to 22,780.506, up 1.32% weekly. European STOXX 600 closed up 0.50% at 570.45, another record close, up 2.87% for the week.

A Shares closed for holiday.

Bond Market: US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield up 3.65bps to 4.1192%, down 5.63bps for the week. 2-year yield up 3.71bps to 3.5759%, down 6.71bps for the week.

Commodities: WTI November crude oil rose 0.66%, ending a four-day streak of losses, at $60.88/barrel, down 7.36% for the week. Brent December crude oil up 0.66%, ending a four-day losing streak, at $64.53/barrel, down 6.77% for the week. COMEX gold futures up 2.68% to $3,911.20/oz.

 

Top News Details

Global Hot Topics

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers reporters' questions regarding Mexico's recent multiple anti-dumping investigations against China. According to the relevant provisions of the "Foreign Trade Law" and "Foreign Trade Barrier Investigation Rules," the Ministry of Commerce has launched a trade and investment barrier investigation over Mexico's plans to increase import tariffs and other restrictive measures against China. Based on the findings and actual conditions, China will take all necessary measures including in trade and investment to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises.

Bullish on Chinese tech's AI narrative, "Sister Wood" keeps adding to Alibaba and Baidu this week! Cathie Wood's Ark Invest (ARKK) continued to increase positions in Chinese concept stocks, buying about $12.34 million of Alibaba stocks and about $16.27 million of Baidu stocks this week. This comes as both stocks rebound strongly, with Alibaba's price surging 112% this year.

Copper prices hit yearly highs, but "without China, there is no perfect bull market". Recently, LME copper soared to $10,500/ton due to a series of supply disruptions, the highest since May 2024. But analysts warn the rally is a fragile "bad bull", noting that demand-driven "good bulls" last longer—Chinese demand growth is critical for sustaining copper's bull market.

US September ISM Non-manufacturing PMI 50, significantly below expectations, business activity weakest since 2020. US services sector stalled in September, with weak orders and business activity in contraction for the first time since May 2020. Employment shrank for four straight months, and the prices paid index was at a three-year high. Analysts note the disappointing service sector performance, the US's largest industry. With official data missing due to the government shutdown, economists and policymakers will rely more on reports like the ISM to gauge the jobs market and economy.

Nonfarm payroll data not yet published, Chicago Fed President: September unemployment rate estimated at 4.3%, labor market stable. Due to the delay of the US September nonfarm report, US stocks gave up early gains premarket. Spot gold rose above $3,880/oz, up 0.62% today. Meanwhile, a Goldman Sachs analysis showed US jobless claims climbed slightly last week.

Trump-trusted Fed board member Milan: Rising rents may change his inflation expectations. In media interviews Friday, Milan continued to downplay the risk of tariffs pushing up inflation. He said stricter immigration policy and average rent trends may suppress housing inflation, but should housing costs rise unexpectedly, he'll modify his inflation view, admitting his non-mainstream stance is not unchangeable.

Fed Vice Chair warns of dual challenges (jobs & inflation), Dallas Fed President urges caution with rate cuts. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson on Friday reiterated concerns that the Fed faces both a softening job market and higher-than-target inflation. Dallas Fed President Logan said the severity of inflation outweighs employment concerns, urging caution with further rate cuts.

"New Fed News Agency" criticizes popular Fed Chair candidate Hassett. Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett accused the Fed's 2021 inflation projection mistakes proved it was partisan, and its actions enabled Biden's runaway inflation; rate cuts before last year's election were campaign stunts for Democrats. Timiraos countered that all five Fed governors serving under Biden were Trump appointees, and one year ago Hassett called rate cuts "wise". As a leading candidate for Fed Chair, Hassett's accusations are seen as highly inappropriate.

White House worried shutdown delays economic data, Democrats again block funding bill. The White House warned the shutdown has suspended the jobs report and could impact inflation, consumption, and GDP data if prolonged. A spokesperson said "the Fed and market are flying blind" and blamed Democrats. Senator Warren called for immediate release of already-collected jobs data and slammed the administration for "manipulating public opinion". Meanwhile, Senate Democrats again blocked the Republican-proposed seven-week stopgap funding bill; House Republicans said they won't return to Washington until after October 13.

Trump again proposes "universal handouts": Considering using tariff revenue to rebate $1,000–2,000 per person. Amid partial government shutdown, Trump again proposed using tariff income to give every American $1,000–2,000 cash, called "American People's Dividend". However, his plan assumes $1 trillion in tariff income yearly— much higher than Treasury's estimate of $300–500 billion.

Media: Trump considers big tariff cuts for US-made cars, auto stocks rise. Media report that President Trump is considering major tariff exemptions on cars finally assembled in the US, covering Ford, Toyota, Honda, Tesla and GM. If realized, this would extend and expand current tariff cuts, further incentivizing local production. As a result, Ford shares rose 3.7%, Stellantis up 3.2%, GM up 1.3%.

Much ado about nothing? Middle East "investment for chips" deal proceeds slowly, reports say Jensen Huang is frustrated. Nvidia's multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with the UAE is lagging. Media say Jensen Huang is frustrated. The deal, announced in May, involves the UAE pledging $1 billion by year-end for $1 billion in Nvidia chips. The investment has yet to land, and the deal's completion is nowhere in sight.

OpenAI's limited-edition Sora App hugely popular, tops US Apple App on day four. Sora App with new Sora 2 model is invite-only, iOS-only, and only open to the US and Canada. Within the first two days, installations topped 164,000. OpenAI now holds two of the top three free apps on the App Store US chart.

iPhone 17 sales are booming, Morgan Stanley more optimistic: 1 billion old devices remain in stock, iPhone 18 will be stronger. Morgan Stanley projects iPhone 17 production orders to rise from 84–86 million to over 90 million, lifting FY2026 shipments to 243 million. It sees the true growth driver as the iPhone 18 cycle, with 1 billion old units to replace and the first foldable iPhone launching, fueling FY2027 revenue growth.

Domestic Companies

"Alibaba FOMO" widely discussed among investors, and in the short term, no one sees its valuation as too high! Driven by the AI boom, Alibaba's market cap has rebounded by $250 billion this year, sparking FOMO sentiment in investment circles. The stock is seen as having further upside. Its Hong Kong P/E ratio is about 22, far below its historical highs and US tech giants. Fund managers say Alibaba, with leading LLMs, cloud, and core data, is still under-allocated by global funds.

Trending: Mixue Bingcheng to sell beer! Diversifying by acquiring Fulu Home, "Snow King" will sell fresh draft beer. Mixue Group announced post-investment, its product lines will extend from fresh fruit and tea drinks, ice cream, and coffee to fresh draft beer. Notably, this transaction is highly watched for its related-party aspect: Fulu Home's actual controller Tian Haixia is spouse of Zhang Hongfu, Mixue's CEO, and her controlled company Mailang Tongzhou is also a shareholder; thus, this is a related-party transaction.

Global Macro

Goldman Sachs CEO: Driven by AI infrastructure and government spending, US economy will accelerate by 2026. Goldman CEO David Solomon believes that despite tariff and jobs market challenges, strong government spending and AI infrastructure will drive US economic growth through 2026, with increased corporate M&A activity. But US stocks may see a "correction" in the next 12–24 months.

Goldman's "Global Sustainability Forum" held in New York. Goldman believes energy and AI are key focus areas. Accelerating power demand is driving holistic energy procurement, and the market is optimistic about nuclear's long-term outlook. AI is disrupting the labor and electricity markets; investors and companies want to know "how much AI can benefit sustainability" and seek certainty in that return.

Offshore Hedge Funds: AI speculative frenzy near its end, rotate into uranium, copper as bubble hedges. Selwood Asset Management warns AI mania is peaking with bubble characteristics. Soaring energy costs will limit AI expansion, and tech giant earnings may be overestimated due to capex depreciation. As a hedge, the fund isn't shorting tech, but is bullish on energy commodities like uranium and copper.

Hamas submits response to Trump's "20-point plan" to mediators. Hamas says it agrees, under Trump's proposal, to release all living Israeli hostages and hand over the bodies of the dead. Hamas agrees to transfer control of Gaza to an independent technocratic Palestinian authority.

International Companies

After its "strongest quarter in 20 years," what surprise can Google still offer Wall Street? Morgan Stanley is bullish on Gemini AI's positive reaction, raising its price target from $210 to $270. Analysts believe Google's "faster innovation" and AI-driven growth in search and cloud support a 10% valuation premium.

AI boom stirs up one of this year's five biggest deals, BlackRock nears $40bn data center buyout. Media say BlackRock's GIP may announce a deal soon to acquire Aligned Data Centers; UAE sovereign fund Mubadala's MGX to co-invest as an independent party.

AI chipmaker Cerebras withdraws IPO filing, says prospectus outdated but still plans to list. AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems withdrew its IPO filing with the SEC after raising $1.1bn at an $8.1bn valuation. A spokesperson said the withdrawal wasn't due to the shutdown. The CEO said the old prospectus is now outdated given industry changes; fundraising is to ensure the firm doesn't miss opportunities due to lack of funds.

Berkshire's "heir apparent's" first big deal: "Buffett-style" brilliance in Occidental's damage control. Analysts believe the deal helps debt-heavy Occidental repay $6.5bn in debt, cutting total debt below $15bn. For Berkshire, this protects its 29.6% stake and gets a top independent petrochemical producer at a fair price—a typical "Buffett win-win."

Berkshire officially splits Chairman-CEO roles, paving way for Abel to succeed Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway announced it will formally separate chairman and CEO roles. The 95-year-old Buffett will remain chairman, while non-insurance Vice Chair Greg Abel will become CEO on Jan 1, 2026. The move, first aired at the May shareholder meeting, is now board approved.

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