Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | October 9, 2025

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Market Overview

Dip buying surged, driving a strong rebound in U.S. stocks on Wednesday, with the S&P and Nasdaq reclaiming all the previous day's lost ground. Market enthusiasm for AI once again outweighed concerns about a potential bubble, with the Nasdaq closing above 23,000 points for the first time in history. Chip stocks led the gains: Nvidia rebounded 2.2%, approaching record highs, AMD soared over 11%. Dell rose more than 9%.

The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points, hitting a daily high after the Fed meeting minutes were released.

The yen fell for the fifth consecutive session, down 0.57% intraday, amid concerns over Japanese fiscal spending.

Bitcoin once rebounded to $124,000, erasing most of Tuesday's losses. Driven by expectations of a government shutdown and rate cuts, gold broke through $4,000, and silver rose as much as 3.7% intraday.

Crude oil surged and then pulled back; U.S. oil touched $63, closing up 0.36%.

In Asia trading, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index ended lower, with AI concept stocks leading the decline, while gold stocks and nuclear power stocks bucked the trend and jumped sharply.

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Market Recap

U.S. and European Stocks: S&P 500 up 0.58% to 6,753.72, setting a new closing high after just one session. Dow Jones edged down to 46,601.78. Nasdaq up 1.12% to 23,043.378, also a new closing high. Europe’s STOXX 600 up 0.79% at 573.79.

A-shares: Closed for holiday.

Bond market: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield up 0.58bp to 4.1287%. Two-year Treasury up 2.07bp to 3.5843%.

Commodities: WTI Nov crude futures up 1.33% to $62.55/bbl. Brent Dec crude up 1.22% to $66.25/bbl. COMEX gold up 1.43% at $4,061.70/oz.

Details of Top Stories

Global Headlines

Fed Minutes: Most officials say continued easing this year may be appropriate, minority might have supported no September cut. “New Fed Media” commented that the September FOMC minutes show Fed officials divided over the extent of rate cuts. Some thought a rate hold last month was suitable and might have supported no cut. Recent government shutdowns lead to delayed economic data, limiting the information available for officials to assess the outlook.

U.S. government shutdown unresolved after a week: Senate rejects bipartisan stopgap funding bill for the sixth time. As before, the Democratic bill did not secure any Republican support, and the Republican bill fell short of 60 votes required; only three Democrats defected to support. Disputes over health care subsidies persist. Republicans insist the government must reopen before further negotiations. Democrats blame Republicans for keeping the government closed, saying the Speaker is the true obstacle. The IRS announced that, with the shutdown ongoing, nearly half of staff—about 34,000 people—will go on leave.

U.S. Congressional Budget Office: Last fiscal year, the U.S. federal budget deficit was $1.8T, almost flat with 2024. Despite a large increase in tariff revenues, as of Sept 30 for fiscal 2025, the federal government recorded a $1.8T deficit, down only $8B from 2024. Trump’s tariffs brought in about $195B in 2025. Revenue rose $308B (+6%), spending also rose $301B (+4%), mainly due to interest on federal debt. Interest on public debt exceeded $1T for first time.

Jensen Huang: Soaring AI demand past half year, Nvidia invested in Elon Musk’s xAI, regrets not putting in more, same for OpenAI. Huang said demand for Blackwell is “very high”; we’re at the dawn of a new industrial revolution; would like to be part of almost everything Musk is doing; only regret with OpenAI is not investing more. Astonished at AMD’s deal to give OpenAI up to 10% stake. On US-China AI competition, he thinks China is far ahead in energy construction.

Tesla repeatedly lowered “Optimus” robot production target, down to 2,000 by summer. Tesla has dropped plans for mass production this year, reallocating resources to improve its hand design and other features.

AI “closed loop” continues: Musk’s xAI nears $20B fundraise, Nvidia invests $2B, links chip supply. Instead of direct investment, it uses an SPV structure. The SPV will buy Nvidia chips and lease to xAI over five years, allowing Wall Street investors to recover their investment.

Alibaba steps in personally, Tongyi Qianwen leads creation of robot AI team. Technical chief Lin Junyang revealed Alibaba has set up a “robotics and embodied AI group.” Multimodal foundation models are being turned into agents, able to use tools/memory for long sequence reasoning via reinforcement learning, with applications “moving from virtual to real world.”

‘ASIC leader’ VeriSilicon’s Q3 results explode: AI orders drive record revenue, profit inflection point may be near. The company just released impressive Q3 projections, beating expectations almost across the board. For those still viewing the company through its legacy “semiconductor IP” label, the results are a wake-up: its growth engine has shifted, and the AI-ASIC story is playing out in the data.

AMD up 43% in three days! Milestone OpenAI agreement lifts stock, analysts raise targets. AMD had its largest three-day jump in nine years, finishing Wednesday up 11% and at a record high; rose almost 24% the day the OpenAI deal was announced. 26 Wall Street analysts have raised their price targets this week, highest target $300, suggesting another 30% upside after the recent rally.

Investment banks bullish, Dell targets repeatedly raised, up 9% in one day. UBS raised Dell's target from $155 to $186 (up 20%, "Buy" rating). Mizuho raised from $160 to $170; Melius Research set target at $200. This reflects confidence Dell's enterprise AI position will translate to sustainable revenue and profit growth.

2025 Nobel Chemistry Prize announced: Three scientists honored for contributions to metal–organic framework development.

Google wins Nobel Prizes consecutively! AI took last year’s Chemistry Prize, quantum computing won this year’s Physics Prize. This not only represents academic recognition but demonstrates Google’s ability to turn basic research into core competitive advantage, positioning it as a long-term leader in the coming tech revolutions and offering a key metric for long-term investors.

Putin: All goals of the special military operation must be achieved unconditionally. Putin said Russia’s forces now completely control the strategic initiative, Ukraine's army is retreating, and attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure are intended to show “results” to Western backers.

Russian Deputy FM: U.S.-Russia summit momentum exhausted, “Tomahawk” missiles could change situation. Ryabkov said the push for an agreement from the August meeting in Alaska is now depleted, “mainly because of European disruptive actions”. Western supplies of “Tomahawk” cruise missiles to Ukraine would be a fundamental shift, but would not shake Russia’s resolve for its military objectives.

Sources say Hamas has agreed to Gaza ceasefire deal, Trump: Israel and Hamas signed first phase “20-point plan”, may visit Middle East this weekend。

AI closed loop goes viral during holidays! Understanding the North American data center supply chain. In this unprecedented AI-driven gold rush, those with core cooling and power technology—able to “power” and “cool” vast computing—will be the real winners.

AI industry chain status: Upstream Nvidia, TSMC make huge profits, downstream faces high debt and low margins. The AI boom has created a sharply divided industry: chip/server manufacturers at the top are raking in profits, while cloud providers/app developers downstream are trapped by high costs, low margins, and rising debt—a warning for the sector.

IMF and Bank of England both warn: Clear official global warning of an AI bubble risk. IMF head Georgieva warned that optimism on AI productivity could suddenly shift, hurting the global economy. The Bank of England said today’s sentiment resembles the buildup to the 2000 dotcom bust, raising the risk of rapid market corrections. Media say these statements are the clearest warnings yet from official bodies about the risk of an AI-led market bubble bursting.

Goldman Sachs: “AI narrative framework”: Five key debates on AI. The five key debates: rapid consumer adoption but lagged monetization; fast enterprise AI deployment but ROI limited, only 5% have measurable gains; record AI infrastructure investment, top five cloud companies’ 2025 capex forecast at $381B (up 68% YoY); AI workloads could drive data center power demand up 165% worldwide by 2030; current valuations, though high, are still at a 46% discount to the dotcom era.

Domestic Companies

InnoCare signs $2B+ licensing deal, key products make new breakthroughs overseas. InnoCare’s pact (over $2B) with Zenas BioPharma brings major cash and equity upside, marks progress for its core product Orelabrutinib’s globalization, and locks in new international partnerships in key autoimmune sectors, bolstering its globalization strategy.

Overseas Macro

Vietnam stock index hits record high, joins FTSE Russell Emerging Markets Index. FTSE Russell's decision to include Vietnam could draw in billions of dollars, boost capital markets, and is international marketing recognition of its reforms.

Overseas Companies

OpenAI gets chips, AMD gets the market — but investors ultimately pay? OpenAI will use AMD shares to pay for its purchase. This financing model effectively has AMD financing large orders for clients, with the true cost likely borne by investors driving up AMD stock.

Where does OpenAI get the $1T? OpenAI is rewriting capital rules in the AI era by binding supply and using innovative “equity for procurement” and “loop financing.” Goldman Sachs estimates that after adding future capex, OpenAI’s 2026 annual funding need will surge from $35B to around $114B, with outside equity/debt funding rising to 75%.

“Old memory” price rise cycle will last till 2026, longer than expected. While mainstream chips soar, old memory is opening a profit window worth noting.

When the “largest traditional financial exchange” invests in the “largest on-chain prediction market,” asset tokenization goes mainstream. NYSE parent ICE invested $2B in Polymarket (pre-money valuation ~$8B). The partnership aims for a full tokenized data market, combining transparent, verifiable DeFi with institutional-grade compliance, serving both crypto-native and institutional end users.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin hoard nears the cash holdings of Amazon, Google, Microsoft. With 640,031 BTC worth over $80B, MSTR’s corporate treasury approaches the ~$95–97B in cash and equivalents held by these tech giants.

SoftBank acquires “industrial robot giant” ABB’s robotics business for $5.375B cash! This deal values the business at $5.375B, marking ABB's abandonment of previous spin-off/IPO plans, and is a major SoftBank move in “physical AI.”

Today's Key Preview Events

China September financial data.

Fed Chair Powell speech.

Fed Governor Bowman speech.

ECB releases minutes of its September monetary policy meeting.

Nobel Literature Prize winner announcement.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risk, invest prudently. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not consider the unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions herein fit their circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```