Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | September 12, 2025

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Market Overview

US economic data fuels rate cut expectations, all three major US stock indices hit record highs, with the Dow up over 1% and posting its biggest gain in nearly three weeks. The S&P and Nasdaq have risen for four consecutive days. Tesla rose 6%, Oracle reversed and fell over 6%; semiconductor index rose for a sixth day, Micron up more than 7%, but Broadcom fell nearly 3%, Nvidia slightly down; rumored Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, which jumped nearly 29%; Figure surged 24% on its IPO day, another crypto stock Circle rose nearly 18%.

Chinese concept stocks rebounded strongly, with the index up nearly 3%, Alibaba up 8%, Nio up over 6%.

After the release of US CPI, US Treasury prices jumped, with the 10-year yield breaking below 4.0% intraday for the first time in five months. The US dollar index quickly turned lower; spot gold rebounded sharply.

The European Central Bank President gave a hawkish speech, and Euro and German 10-year Bund yield both hit daily highs.

The IEA raised its global oil supply forecast, crude oil ended a three-day rise, and US crude prices fell over 2% intraday.

In the Asian session, the ChiNext board soared over 5%, AI hardware stocks hit their daily limit, "Yi Zhongtian" surged, the Hang Seng Index opened low and closed high, holding the 26,000 mark, and new drug stocks saw sharp declines narrow significantly.

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Market Recap

US & European Stock Markets: S&P 500 up 0.85% to 6587.47. Dow up 1.36% to 46108.00. Nasdaq up 0.72% to 22043.075. Europe’s STOXX 600 up 0.55% to 555.33.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 1.65% to 3875.31. Shenzhen Component up 3.36% to 12979.89. ChiNext up 5.15% to 3053.75.

Bonds: By end of day, US 10Y Treasury yield about 4.02%, daily drop of roughly 3bps; 2Y at about 3.54%, unchanged from Wednesday.

Commodities: WTI October crude down 2.04% to $62.37/barrel. Brent November crude down 1.66% to $66.37/barrel. COMEX December gold down 0.23% to $3673.6/oz. LME aluminum up 1.83% to $2674/ton.

Top Story Details

Global Headlines

State Council: Launch comprehensive pilot reforms for market-based factor allocation in 10 regions, including Beijing's sub-center, key cities in Southern Jiangsu, Hangzhou-Ningbo-Wenzhou, and Hefei metropolitan area.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the State Council has recently issued the "Reply on the Comprehensive Pilot Implementation Plan for Market-based Allocation of Factors in Some Regions Nationwide", agreeing to launch pilots for two years with the mentioned cities, and to publicly issue the full plan.
The reply clarifies that relevant provincial governments must take primary responsibility and focus on deepening coordination, improving efficiency, exploring new allocation methods, optimizing safeguards for new industries, and promoting high-quality development of services. Emphasis will be on key sectors and links, pursuing reform, clearly defining work tasks, co-ordinating support, innovating based on local conditions and performing differentiated pilot reforms, with timely effect-tracking and experience-sharing.

China's Ministry of Commerce: Closely monitors Mexico's tax hike, China will take necessary measures as needed. Analysts believe Mexico’s action aligns with long-term US attempts to restrain China’s enterprises and fits Mexico’s strategy to negotiate with North American partners and strengthen domestic manufacturing and consumption.

US inflation basically in line with expectations, August CPI up 2.9% y/y, up 0.4% m/m. August core CPI rose 3.1% y/y, 0.3% m/m, both matching Wall Street and July's levels. The main drivers were autos and service prices. After the data, traders fully priced-in the scenario of three Fed rate cuts by year-end.

US initial jobless claims rose instead of falling to 263,000, a four-year high. For the week ending September 6, initial claims rose by 27,000 from last month compared to economists' forecast of a slight decrease to 235,000. Continued claims remained unchanged at 1.94 million for the week ending August 30.

ECB held steady for the second straight meeting, believes inflation pressure is under control; President Lagarde hawkish: The euro area’s disinflation process is now finished, trade uncertainty greatly reduced

The ECB cut its inflation forecast for 2027, with headline inflation down to 1.9% and core at 1.8%, increasing market speculation about rate cuts late in the year. Markets have turned dovish for year-end, currently expecting a 7bp cut.
Lagarde said, "Inflation is at the level we want"; economic growth risk is now balanced; recent trade deals reduced uncertainty, but renewed trade tensions may further drag exports, investment, and consumption. She stressed that due to trade turbulence, the price outlook is "more uncertain than usual". She reiterated a meeting-by-meeting decision strategy. Traders reacted by lowering their bets on further rate cuts.

Alibaba open sources Qwen3-Next model, focusing on superior training and inference cost-effectiveness, with 80 billion total parameters but only 3 billion activated. Alibaba released the next-gen base model architecture Qwen3-Next and open sourced the Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B series models. The new model structure aims to improve long-context and large-parameter training/inference efficiency.

Oracle’s revenue doubled in three years, becoming the ‘New Nvidia’. For Oracle, turning remaining obligations into revenue depends on its ability to build networks for contract fulfillment: this requires power, licenses, and key hardware like Nvidia GPUs that are in high demand and short supply.

Skepticism about Oracle’s massive deals: All depending on OpenAI, income is long-term, can they make money and build? Oracle’s Q1 highlight was RPO (remaining performance obligations) surging to $455 billion, mainly due to a five-year, $300B AI contract with OpenAI. JP Morgan noted most orders were long-term, only about 10% are short-term RPO (revenue recognized within a year), meaning most revenue will only be realized much later. Bet on AI for growth, but profit margin decline and cash pressure are challenges.

Tesla’s new growth point: China Model Y L first deliveries not until November, stock up 6%. Tesla launched an extended-wheelbase six-seat all-electric SUV—Model Y L—in China, October delivery sold out, earliest new order delivers November 2025. Analysts say this model quickly became a bestseller in key overseas markets, significant for Tesla.

Microsoft and OpenAI sign interim agreement to move next-step collaboration forward, OpenAI says nonprofit parent will hold more than $100B in the for-profit PBC entity. Details undisclosed; parties negotiating final terms. This step is considered progress for OpenAI’s restructuring. OpenAI says nonprofit parent will become one of the world’s richest charities. Microsoft rose over 2% after hours.

Crypto sector draws funds again: Figure’s US IPO surges 24%, market cap exceeds $6 billion. Blockchain lending platform Figure priced IPO at $25, at least 13% above the raised guidance, raising ~$788M. Stock rose over 50% intraday before closing about half that up. CEO said Figure is an example of bringing real value with blockchain in the real world; among the top 20 mortgage companies, 10 use Figure technology.

Even after inflation adjustment, gold has surpassed its fever peak from 45 years ago. In Jan 1980, when gold hit $850, the US faced currency collapse, soaring inflation, and recession. Price doubled in two months. Allowing for decades of CPI growth, $850 in 1980 equals ~$3590 now. This year gold is up ~40% amid Trump tax cuts, an expanding global trade war, and unprecedented attempts to influence the Fed. The new price surge comes as markets expect Fed rate cuts.

Dalio: Gold is the shield against US debt risk. Dalio compares rising US debt service to artery blockages that "crowd out other spending" and "may lead to a heart attack". He suggests 10%-15% gold allocation in a well-diversified portfolio.

Domestic Companies

Sharp drop in AI infrastructure stocks, milder drop in fund NAVs; some star tech funds suspected of major repositioning, including this year’s standout Yongying Tech Select! Recently, as AI infrastructure stocks plunged, several star tech funds with big allocations saw NAV declines milder than expected, suggesting large-scale rotation. Some funds not previously overweight tech saw much bigger NAV swings. Analysts say this is valuation bubble cooling, and managers are focusing on AI application opportunities.

Largest M&A in domestic data center industry. Dongyangguang and others will buy 100% of Qinhuai Data China for 28B yuan. Qinhuai is a neutral third-party hyperscale AI infra operator; Jan-May 2025 revenue 2.608B, net profit 745M. Dongyangguang closed Sept 10 at 24.05 yuan/share, mkt cap 72.4B.

Contrary to Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley: time to take profits in optical module stocks. MS says optical module sector’s positives are widely known and reflected in price. Estimates for YOFC and Tianfu already exceed +1 SD historical levels, so the positives are at least partly priced in; ZJXC tech is currently below +1 SD.

How to understand Tencent’s “AI monetization potential”? JPM expects WeChat’s integration of transactions, AI agents, and consumer insights will let Tencent achieve up to 426 billion yuan in incremental AI-driven revenue by 2030, boosting profits by 10%-56%. The key is AI-driven higher conversion in WeChat, raising its bargaining power for e-commerce and local services ad budgets.

Morgan Stanley: Most bullish on Alibaba in e-commerce; “Gaode Sweeping List” reshapes local services competition. MS sees Gaode’s new product as a key signal Alibaba is back in local services, likely to launch more, and may gain greater market share. This is a direct challenge to Meituan and Dazhong Dianping; Meituan’s profitability will be under pressure, with its long-term in-store business margin dropping from 2.5% to 2%.

Overseas Macro

"Animal spirits" rule global equities, new highs for four days in a row! The MSCI global index, tracking 2500+ stocks, hit new records for 4 consecutive sessions. S&P 500 closed at record highs for second day, Nikkei 225, Korea Composite, and Singapore STI all set new highs this week. Analysts say risk appetite is high but warn that US tariff policy effects may create market uncertainty in coming months.

Goldman hedge fund chief: Again and again AI propels market, debate increasingly intense, but don’t fight bull, don’t chase either. Tony Pasquariello notes US tech and easy money are the two pillars of the bull. But record high valuations and slowing short-term inflows mean the market will need “consolidation.” Suggests hedging with low-cost options for another possible rally in Q4.

US SEC Chair: On-chain capital markets and AI-agent-driven finance coming, will encourage innovation, not stifle it. The SEC will shift from tough enforcement to supporting financial innovation; it will clarify most tokens are not securities, support on-chain financing and super-app development, and embrace the agent-finance era driven by AI + blockchain.

To lower tariffs, Switzerland said to propose gold refinery in the US. Switzerland proposed a comprehensive plan including setting up gold refining facilities in the US to resolve trade disputes and tariffs, alongside measures in pharma, defense, energy.

Bank of Japan mulls ETF sales, likely favoring gradual, long-term approach; timing remains suspense. BoJ’s deputy governor said the bank will consider how to handle its ETF and REIT assets, signaling intent to reduce. Analysts expect gradual, phased selling, with no decision at next week’s meeting, but Ueda Kazuo may comment at the post-meeting presser.

As stock index hits new highs, S. Korea Pres Yoon says “Korean stocks still seriously undervalued,” but “capital gains tax” left to parliament. Yoon said there is no need to lower the threshold for capital gains tax on personal stocks and will leave the decision to parliament. This disappointed investors who had expected him to announce outright withdrawal of the plan.

Brazil’s Supreme Court convicts ex-president Bolsonaro of multiple crimes. Charges include participating in a criminal organization and attempted coup d’état.

Overseas Companies

Hollywood earthquake: Paramount may bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, shares soar 29%. Paramount has hired an investment bank to prepare a cash takeover bid for WBD but hasn’t begun formal talks. No specific terms yet.

Apple eyes $2000 iPhone price point, with 2T iPhone priced at $1999. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman says this is a “market test balloon,” and shows Apple thinks a large enough group will pay. With foldable iPhones and iPhone 20 in the pipeline, Apple is laying the groundwork for higher price standards.

An “unprecedented” auction grabs crypto world’s attention, may upend stablecoin landscape. Decentralized exchange Hyperliquid publicly auctions USDH stablecoin issuance, attracting a fierce contest from top 10 firms including Ethena Labs, Paxos, Frax Finance, Sky Ecosystem, who vie for up to $220M annual returns. Impact goes beyond profit and touches stablecoin governance, viewed as a showdown between TradFi and native DeFi teams over next-gen infrastructure. On-chain voting Sunday will decide the winner.

Musk’s Starlink “taking over” the emerging market internet. JPM says with tech upgrades, Starlink’s network may grow 100x, while reusable rocket tech could cut marginal bandwidth costs by up to 90%. Lower costs and innovation are turning satellite internet from pricey niche to a mainstream option.

After weight loss, heart, and liver, could semaglutide also “fight dementia”? Novo Nordisk pins big hopes. This fall, Novo Nordisk will reveal clinical trial results for semaglutide in Alzheimer’s. UBS estimates only 1 in 10 chance of success, but if it works, could add $15B annual sales. For Novo facing growth slowdown, it’s make-or-break.

Industries/Concepts

1. Solid State Drives (SSD): Analysts believe that GPU-direct SSD tech is a key AI compute infrastructure innovation, with both tech-driven and demand-driven windfalls. In 2024, China’s smart compute power scale reaches 725.3 EFLOPS, up 74.1% YoY, expected to exceed 1037.3 EFLOPS in 2025. SSD direct-attach tech boosts data throughput, vital to meeting AI compute needs, and will drive market growth for the next 5 years, with global AI storage surpassing $100B. China, thanks to policy, tech upgrades, and application scenarios, could account for over 30% of the global market.

2. Mobile Payments: Research says Alipay’s “tap to pay” redefines payment experience via tech innovation and scenario expansion. Its convenience, security, and ecosystem extension make it a new milestone. The “tap to pay” model has built a complete ecosystem chain (software, hardware, phone makers, service providers, brands, industry scenarios). Behind Alipay's rise is self-controlled Chinese manufacturing, with the new entry driving upgrades in consumer life use cases, powering even more innovation at Alipay.

3. Data Elements | The State Council briefed on piloting factor market reforms. The National Data Administration supports pilots to strengthen public data sharing, openness, and authorized operations, creating influential projects and replicable, scalable data resource development models. It also supports exploring new data trading models, building data security governance, and advancing high-quality and safe development.

Research agencies note China’s data infrastructure is in early construction, with multiple technical and business solutions under development. With domestic compute breakthroughs and algorithm democratization, China's AI strategy may shift to leveraging its data advantage, building high-quality datasets, and activating B/G-side applications, especially in manufacturing, commerce, and governance. As regulations on government data sharing improve and pilots expand, industry growth may accelerate.

Today's Key Preview

US September preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Germany, France August CPI.

UK July GDP.

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Risk DisclaimerMarkets are risky, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual investment objectives, financial status, or needs. Readers should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk. ```