Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | September 8, 2025

Wallstreetcn Morning Brief FM-Radio | September 8, 2025

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

On Friday, US non-farm payroll data disappointed, sparking recession concerns, rate cut expectations intensified, investors bet on three Fed rate cuts this year, and the probability of a 50-basis-point cut in September also rose.

The three major US stock indexes opened higher and hit record highs in early trading, but worries that the Fed may lag behind the situation meant that recession risks outweighed the benefits of rate cut expectations. US stocks started high and then fell, with the Nasdaq at one point falling over 1.5% from its intraday high.

AMD fell 6.58%, Nvidia dropped 2.7% to a nearly two-month low, while Broadcom surged over 9%. Lululemon fell 18%. Robinhood was finally added to the S&P 500, rising nearly 8% after hours on Friday.

Rate cut expectations, combined with safe-haven demand, caused US Treasury yields to fall across the board. The 10-year yield fell more than 8 basis points, and the 2-year yield dropped to the lowest since 2022.

The US Dollar Index fell more than 0.9% compared to Thursday's New York close. Cryptocurrency prices surged then retreated, with Ethereum at one point dropping 5.2% from its daily high.

Gold rose 1.16%, hitting an intraday record high of $3,600. US oil fell 2% to a three-month low.

During the Asian session on Monday, Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to above $66 per barrel.

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Headlines

China July Forex Reserves increased by 0.91% month-on-month, Central Bank increases gold holdings for 10 consecutive months.

Yi Huiman under investigation! Suspected of serious disciplinary violations, he led the Securities Regulatory Commission for over five years.

Shenzhen Real Estate Major news: Loosening purchase limits in Luohu and others, non-local residents can buy two homes; purchase limit zones and populations have been greatly relaxed.

US August Non-farm added only 22,000 jobs, far below expectations, unemployment hit a nearly four-year high at 4.3%. Treasury Secretary Basent: 2024 non-farm data may be revised down by 800,000 jobs. 'New Fed News Agency': Non-farm report almost guarantees a September cut, but further cuts are a complex debate.

Basent "presses" the Fed: Must have 'people focus', QE only in emergencies, first to mention moderate long-term rates. BofA Hartnett: Back to the "Nixon era," go long gold, digital currency, US bonds, short the US dollar!

Trump adjusts global tariff policy, exempting key goods such as gold, tungsten, uranium.

Trump threatens to initiate 301 investigations against the EU after the EU fined Google.

US-Japan Tariff agreement details revealed: Japan invests $550 billion, Trump decides allocation, '90% long-term profits' go to the US.

On the eve of a key vote, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns.

OpenAI ambitious bet: Cash burn surges to $115 billion in four years, aiming for $200 billion revenue by 2030.

OPEC+ "agreed in principle": Increase production in October.

 

Market Close

European and US Markets: S&P 500 down 0.32% to 6,481.50, up 0.33% for the week. Dow down 0.48% to 45,400.86, down 0.32% for the week. Nasdaq down 0.03% to 21,700.388, up 1.14% for the week. Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.16% to 549.21, down 0.17% for the week.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 3,812.51, up 1.24%; Shenzhen Component at 12,590.56, up 3.89%; ChiNext at 2,958.18, up 6.55%.

Bond Market: US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell 8.65 basis points to 4.0742%, down 15.42 basis points for the week. 2-year yield down 7.86 basis points to 3.5092%, down 10.75 basis points for the week.

Commodities: COMEX gold futures up 0.96% to $3,641.40/oz, up 3.58% for the week. WTI October crude futures down 2.53% to $61.87/barrel, down 3.34% for the week. Brent November crude down 2.22% to $65.50/barrel, down 2.93% for the week.

 

In-depth Headlines

Global Major News

China’s July Forex Reserves rose 0.91% month-on-month, Central Bank increases gold for 10 months consecutively. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that in August, impacted by expectations of major economies’ monetary policy and macroeconomic data, the US Dollar Index fell and global financial assets prices rose. Exchange rate conversions and asset price changes drove up the reserves. From November last year to now, China has bought 1.22 million ounces of gold (about 38 tons).

Yi Huiman under investigation! Suspected of serious disciplinary violations, had led the securities regulator for over five years. Yi is currently under investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission.

What are the changes in Shenzhen’s new property policies?Big relaxation in purchase limit zones, limited scope reduced to Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an (Xin'an subdistrict); Historic relaxation for eligible populations, local and non-local residents with 1-year social insurance in non-limited zones can 'buy freely', ending the two-home policy restriction; Most crucial: age limit for singles relaxed—adults now treated as households—in non-limited zones they may buy any number, in limited zones up to 2 homes.

US Treasury Secretary Basent: 2024 non-farm jobs may be revised down by 800,000. Basent said not to change economic policy over a single number. Data show Trump’s criticism of the Fed’s slow actions is correct.

Basent “presses” the Fed: people focus, QE only for emergencies, first to mention moderate long-term rates. In a signed article, Basent said the Fed’s independence comes from public trust. The central bank must recommit to maintaining Americans’ confidence. Notably, Basent listed “moderate long-term rates” alongside maximum employment and price stability as three top statutory responsibilities. He also said QE and other unconventional tools must be reserved for “genuine emergencies” and used in coordination with other government departments.

Trump changes global tariff policy, exempts key goods like gold, tungsten, uranium. Gold and various minerals for high tech and key industries, including graphite and tungsten (vital for aerospace, electronics, medical tech), are now tariff exempt. Uranium is also exempt.

Trump's tariff battle goes to US Supreme Court, what next? Key dates?A US appeals court ruled most Trump global tariffs illegal, but has delayed the ruling until October 14. The White House appealed to the Supreme Court. If the Court does not act, affected tariffs expire Oct 14. Even if overturned, the Trump administration could still use section 232 and other tools to keep tariffs on strategic industries such as steel and chips.

Trump threatens 301 probe against EU after Google fine. The EU fined Google $3.5 billion for abusing its dominance. Trump said on social media: "If such actions are taken, I will be forced to launch a 301 procedure to remove unfair fines imposed on our US companies."

US-Japan tariff agreement: Japan invests $550bn, Trump has final say, 90% long-term profit goes to US. Analysis: Japan pledges $550bn in US strategic investments but the US has near-total say—Trump has "final say for the project," and if Japan refuses to invest, the US may retaliate with tariffs. Profit split: split 50-50 until Japan recovers principal, after which 90% of long-term profits go to the US, 10% to Japan. Investments focus on semiconductors, energy, AI, quantum computing, etc.

On the eve of a key vote, Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba resigns. He said at a conference he'd completed phase tasks, and with the US-Japan trade deal concluded, now was the right time to step down. Analysts see this as strategic, avoiding a public loss of confidence if a vote demanded his resignation on Sept 8.

  • After Ishiba's resignation, how will Japan choose a new PM? The LDP will pick a new leader, but since it has lost its majority, the parliament vote is key. If the upper and lower houses disagree, the lower house prevails. New PM may dissolve parliament for snap elections; coalition reshuffles and government stability will directly affect economic policy and market expectations.

Broadcom surges, Nvidia drops, "AI chips" move the US market. Reports say Broadcom will design and produce AI chips for OpenAI from 2026, sending its stock up 9.4% on Friday, while Nvidia slid 2.7% amid competition concerns, weighing on tech stocks.

OpenAI's $100 billion gamble: cash burn to soar to $115 billion in 4 years, aiming for $200 billion revenue by 2030. This is one of the most capital-intensive gambles in tech history.

Silicon Valley can’t handle it, moving to Wall Street—“AI arms race” risks spreading! Tech giants’ new financial strategies to share risk: Meta’s joint ventures, Oracle’s syndicated loans, Google’s backup guarantees—all externalize risk and debt.

OPEC+ "agreed in principle": Expand production in October. This signals OPEC+ will now pursue market share, not price defense. Saudi Arabia wants to win back sales lost to US shale rivals. For global oil markets, this erodes the 'spare capacity safety net' that has long provided cushions for supply shocks.

Domestic Macro

CSRC seeks comment on proposed lower mutual fund subscription and service fees, strengthen direct sales. This round cuts equity fund subscription/max fee to 0.8%/0.8% (from 1.2%/1.5%), balanced funds fees to 0.5% (from 1.2%/1.5%), bond fund fees to 0.3% (from 0.6%/0.8%).

  • Who loses and benefits from new fund fee rules? CICC says the new fee rules affect channel income less than expected: bank/securities/independent channel impact at 21.4%/17.6%/20.1%, average about 20%. Based on recent three-year fund distribution cost data, the third-phase reform will trim overall fees by about 30 billion yuan, a cut of about 34%—benefiting investors.

Three recent market liquidity features. First: ETF inflows diverge—broad-based funds shrink, sector/theme, and Hong Kong stocks increase; second: market enters last round of intensive active fund redemptions and rebalance since 2021; third: High overseas debt rates and central banks’ passive rate cut pressures coexist; RMB asset attractiveness continues to rise.

Domestic Companies

Which sub-sectors revised up post-earnings, which hit historical highs? CMB Securities: Upward-revised stocks are mainly in pharma, TMT, high-end manufacturing, also securities, copper, pesticides, specialty chemicals, thermal power, etc. Revenues/profits hitting historic highs are concentrated in TMT, high-end manufacturing, fine chemicals, gold, small home appliances, beer, etc.

Which industries see continuous order improvement? GF Securities: Q1 A-share order improvement mainly from computers, basic chemicals, defense, power equipment, autos. Q1 order growth YoY in wind power (cables/turbines/tower foundations), lithium batteries and equipment, motorcycles, semiconductor equipment, CXO, automation, other power devices, IT, and computers.

How are car companies fulfilling payment cycle commitments? Many hurdles remain. According to Securities Times, interviews with dozens of auto parts companies show while some carmakers have started adjusting payment cycles, actual changes are uneven. Experts say solving fundamental supply chain stress and curbing 'self-cannibalizing' competition still needs transparent, detailed institutional design and strong compliance.

Moore Thread’s half-year revenue exceeds previous 3 years, H20 not a competitor, profit as early as 2027. Moore Thread expects gross margins to decline from 2025-2027, with a slight upturn from 2026 to 2027.

Tencent Hunyuan’s translation model ranked No.1 globally on HuggingFace’s trending chart.

China’s first AI compute open architecture released. At the 2025 World Intelligence Industry Expo, Sugon, with more than 20 supply chain partners, jointly launched China’s first AI open computing architecture, released AI supercluster systems, and announced the start of an AI Computing Architecture Joint Lab. Each AI supercluster cabinet supports 96 accelerator cards and 100+ petaflops, scalable to millions of cards.

CATL launches NP3.0 battery safety tech and Shenxing Pro battery globally.

Hesai Group launches global offering in Hong Kong, max price HK$228 ($29.04) per share.

Chery Automobile passed HKEX listing hearing.

Akeso: HARMONi OS improves survival benefit, trend better than previous May results.

Overseas Macro

Goldman market survey: into September, US bulls keep betting on AI, bears worry about growth/concentration, all bullish on gold. Institutions are split, optimists press AI, pessimists worry about slow growth/higher concentration. Regardless, gold is the consensus long, at record bullishness (bull/bear 8:1). Interest in China remains strong; over 60% of respondents plan to hold/increase China stocks.

After a turbulent week, Goldman elite traders: still bearish on USD, bullish US stocks/value stores. Despite data and AI controversy, top traders say ignore short-term noise: overweight US stocks, gold, and other “stores of value,” short the dollar at critical support. If AI spending/growth slow, S&P could drop 15-20%—though that’s seen as unlikely.

More clients ask Goldman: Is the US market 'too optimistic'? What next for AI trade? Goldman thinks current AI-driven market is not irrationally bubbly, but keeps cautious optimism. The party depends on tech giants’ spending; if it slows, valuations face pressure and US stocks could correct 15-20%. Transitioning from “infrastructure” to “profit” stage is key for future trends.

What’s causing global long bond market anxiety? Recently, 30-year US Treasury yields soared past 5%. Possible causes: US tariffs, Fed independence worries, European politics, pension reform. No single factor explains it. Analysts say, whatever the cause, it points to diminished long bond demand.

Overseas Companies

White House AI banquet sets industry targets: energy, compute, application. Tech companies submitted investment bills: Microsoft $75-80B/year, Google adds $250B in 2 years, Meta $600B in 4 years, Apple $600B in US investments. The message: AI’s next stage is about cost, usability, and reliability—not just tech specs.

Robinhood, AppLovin to join S&P 500 on Sept 22. Robinhood shot up 6% after hours on the news—up 156% YTD, market cap $90B. AppLovin will enter with a market cap of around $165B, largest S&P 500 omission previously, its stock up 6% after hours.

Tesla launches official "TeslaAI" Weibo, showcasing humanoid robot design.

Sectors / Concepts

1. Artificial Intelligence | Per Xinhua, 2025 Global Industrial Internet Conference opened Sept 6 in Shenyang. Theme: "Numbers Open a New Chapter, Smart Manufacturing Reshapes Quality." Guests from government, business, academia, and research discuss AI, models, and industrial use of frontier tech and devices. Event runs until Sept 8. During the event, key players gathered to show next-gen AI/model tech for industry.

Comment: Lianchu Securities thinks AI is a key factor for the next phase of China's economic/social development, expected to drive more industries and investment opportunities. Focus on compute infrastructure, AI applications, and edge devices.

2. In Vitro Diagnostics | Per Jiemian News, the state regulator approved construction of a National Medical Device IVD Industry Measurement and Testing Center in Jilin. The center will focus on domestic/high-end IVD reagent/equipment innovation, intelligent/digital technology, research on 15 new test methods, PCR device temperature metering, and removing measurement bottlenecks in the supply chain.

Comment: Shanghai Securities News says the center will spur medical diagnostic innovation and upgrades, provide reliable tech guarantees for precision medicine, and promote high-quality IVD industry growth.

3. Consumption | Per SHSE News, China's retail prosperity index hit a near 8-month high in September at 50.6%, up 0.5% from last month, rising for 2 months in a row.

Comment: Experts note September back-to-school season boosts shopping demand, and various regional trade-in subsidy adjustments boost retail metrics. Items-per-transaction rises, with lightly-loose monetary policies providing policy support.

4. Quantum Computing | Per The Paper, as quantum tech booms globally, Nvidia's investment arm invested in Quantinuum (controlled by Honeywell) with a $10 billion valuation. Other participants: JPMorgan, Mitsui. These funds will push Quantinuum’s quantum computing progress, including the new Helios system this year and realization of general-purpose, fault-tolerant quantum computers.

Comment: China Securities Journal notes quantum computing is a next-gen info-tech driver, moving from labs to industry. Tech breakthroughs, policies, demand are driving fast growth, expanding use cases from special-purpose to general, revolutionizing finance, pharma, energy, etc. The sector is in a transition from tech-driven to application-driven, with 2025-2030 the golden window for commercialization. China's 14th Five-Year Plan names quantum tech as a core national strategy, aiming for breakthroughs in quantum communication and photonic quantum computing.

5. Pork | Per Jiemian News, the Commerce Ministry announced a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on pork and offal from the EU, finding dumping, real harm to domestic industry, and causality. Per Articles 28–29 of the Anti-Dumping Regulation, temporary anti-dumping measures will be implemented via margin payments at customs from September 10, 2025, at company-specific rates.

6. AI Large Models | Per Securities Times, on Sept 6, Alibaba released trillion-parameter model Qwen3-Max-Preview—performance exceeds predecessor & global rivals, >1T params, 262K context, excels in multimodal analysis, code generation, stepwise execution—driving explosive compute demand.

Comment: Institutions say Qwen3-Max-Preview, the first trillion-parameter closed-source CN model, marks breakthroughs in size, performance and commercialization, propelling China’s models to first-tier globally and boosting their cost-effective routes.

7. AI Glasses | Per industry leaks, Meta’s smart glasses sold hot in H1, so they upped orders to Qualcomm by 20% in August to >12M AR1 chips for the year—outpacing 2025 market estimates. Celeste, Meta's first display glasses, launching Sept.

Comment: Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses sales tripled YoY in EssilorLuxottica’s July results. If this pace continues, 2025 shipments will hit 4–5M. Should it grow further in 2026, annual shipment may exceed 10M units.

Top News Preview Today

17th Standing Committee Meeting of the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing, Sept 8–12.

China August Import and Export data.

Japan Q2 real GDP.

Japan LDP written application deadline for early elections.

France budget confidence vote.

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Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets are risky, investments need caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider individual user objectives, financial conditions, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein suit their situation. Investment based on this is at your own risk. ```