Wallstreetcn Morning Briefing FM-Radio | June 25, 2026

Wallstreetcn Morning Briefing FM-Radio | June 25, 2026

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Huajian Morning Voice

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Market Overview

Before heavyweight US inflation data, US stocks continued to be pressured, S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for three consecutive days, but the decline was less than Tuesday, and the closing loss narrowed compared to Wednesday's intraday low. The Dow rose on the day. Among the seven US tech giants, only Amazon rose, Microsoft fell more than 2% leading the decline. Cerebras Systems' intraday drop expanded to 19%, breaking below its IPO price.

Micron surged 16% post-earnings, driving Nasdaq futures up 2.2% in the early Asia session.

US treasuries rose for two consecutive days, 10-year yield plunged 10 basis points.

The US Dollar Index hit new highs for a second day, yen approached a two-year low, offshore yuan approached 6.82 and a one-month low intraday. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 intraday, dropping more than 6% from the day’s high.

Commodities plunged. Crude oil fell near 5% intraday, both WTI and Brent closed at four-month lows, back to pre-Iran conflict levels, WTI briefly broke below $70. Gold fell below $4000 for the first time in seven months intraday, futures lost more than 4%, silver futures dropped 10%, hitting a six-month low again. New York copper fell for five days, over 3% for two days, hitting a one-month low.

During Asia session, China’s Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) rose 1%, STAR50 surged nearly 4%, computing power hardware rebounded collectively, Hang Seng Tech Index rose nearly 2%, semiconductors soared.

Top News

China

Goldman Sachs: Chinese residents' equity allocation is still low relative to its long-term potential.

Goldman Sachs: The most difficult stage for Chinese baijiu has passed.

A-share semiconductors collectively explode! SemiAnalysis says Changxin Memory is "too cheap", company expansion will not ease DRAM supply tension.

Doubao officially launches paid version with three pricing tiers, up to 6000 yuan per year.

The "age of lithium" is loosening? CATL: Sodium battery will enter at least 10,000 EVs this year. "Sodium-ion battery" = "new oil"! Morgan Stanley slogan: key bottleneck to reshape energy and AI development.

Overseas

Trump pressures oil companies: oil prices must drop faster or face DOJ investigation.

Bessent: Iran negotiations include dollar settlement demand, economic growth may return to 3% within the year.

All 32 banks pass Fed annual stress test, paving way for dividends and buybacks.

BOJ Governor speaks for the first time since illness: will raise rates in due course, inflation risks exist. Reports: Japan plans to improve FX reserve management, Mizuho economist says "means selling US Treasuries".

Micron’s quarterly revenue up over tripled, far exceeding expectations, guidance exploded, AI memory tightness persists through 2027, shares surge after hours; CEO: Memory has become a strategic asset in AI era, profit margin will far exceed historical peaks.

Qualcomm fully enters AI data centers: Meta signs multi-generation CPU order, Microsoft deploys HBC chips, expected multi-billion revenue next year.

Nvidia’s shareholder meeting signals AI factory era, intelligent agents reshaping computing landscape.

After stock market volatility, Korea delays launch of weekly single stock options. SK Hynix plans US Nasdaq ADR listing to raise $29.4B, setting record, could list as soon as next month. Reports: Samsung may announce a 90 trillion won buyback plan for employee bonuses. Samsung shifts half HBM production to HBM4, pauses 8-layer HBM3E production.

Anthropic launches major update: CC evolved Claude Tag, Karpathy: Third interaction revolution of LLM comes. Mythos model shows strong cyber offense and defense, exposes US intelligence system flaws in hours.

Computing power battle intensifies: OpenAI bypasses Nvidia, partners Broadcom to build dedicated inference chip, ~50% cost reduction.

Google’s AI talent outflow intensifies: two more core researchers to Anthropic.

Masayoshi Son’s keynote: AI has no bubble, SoftBank mass-produces robots, challenges Musk saying space data centers are worthless.

 

Market Close

US and European stocks: S&P 500 down 0.10% at 7,358.22. Dow up 0.35% at 51,848.90. Nasdaq down 0.43% at 25,476.636. Europe’s STOXX 600 up 0.08% at 635.16.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4,110.81, up 0.11%. Shenzhen Component at 16,051.32, up 1.24%. GEM at 4,251.42, up 1.41%.

Bonds: US 10-year yield down 10.47 bps, at 4.3922%. 2-year yield down 5.28 bps at 4.1456%.

Commodities: Spot gold down 2.86% at $3999.08/oz. Spot silver down 6.72% at $57.4512/oz. WTI July crude futures down 3.92% at $70.34/bbl. Brent July crude down 4.33% at $73.74/bbl.

 

Top News Details

Global Highlights

China

Goldman Sachs: Chinese residents' equity allocation is still low relative to its long-term potential. Current equity share in assets is less than 10%, suggesting large space for asset reallocation as residents expand their investment areas.

Goldman Sachs: The most difficult stage for Chinese baijiu has passed. Channel destocking and supply cuts speed up, Maotai and premium baijiu prices stabilize, cash flow improves Q1. But due to fewer banquets, Goldman lowers earnings forecast for most companies, predicting industry total sales by 2030 to recover to about 75% of 2024, with early stage of long-term recovery.

A-share semiconductors collectively explode! SemiAnalysis claims Changxin Memory is "too cheap", company expansion can't change DRAM supply tension. SemiAnalysis latest report says Changxin Memory's IPO valuation is much too low, revenue expected to break $50B in 2026. Despite rapid expansion, AI demand grows faster, global DRAM shortages expected till 2028, with clear cyclical prosperity.

Doubao officially launched paid version, three pricing tiers, max 6,000 yuan/year, expensive?. Paid subscription Professional Edition with 68, 200, 500 yuan/month tiers, max 6,000 yuan/year, free version functions unaffected. New feature: Doubao 2.1 Pro's Office Task Mode, supports local PC operation, timed tasks, built-in Office suite. Charges due to high cost: daily computing power costs millions, daily revenue under 1M yuan.

"Age of lithium" loosening? CATL: Sodium battery to enter at least 10,000 EVs this year. CATL Chief Manufacturing Officer Ni Jun says expects 10,000-20,000 EVs with sodium-ion battery this year, new sodium battery storage system TENER to deliver this year. CTO reveals nearly 10B yuan invested over ten years, sodium battery energy density up 50%. Lithium price rebound highlights sodium’s cost edge, but sodium battery’s range still behind lithium, cost parity or competitive edge expected by 2030.

  • "Sodium-ion battery" = "new oil"! Morgan Stanley slogan: key bottleneck to reshape energy and AI. Morgan Stanley defines sodium-ion battery as "core asset of new oil era". AI data centers drive storage demand, sodium's low cost/temperature performance/supply chain not restricted by lithium mines mean 2035 share of global deployments reach 37%, annual installations 2.4TWh, generating $800B investment wave. First impact on storage, fleets, small vehicles. Sodium battery/device makers, storage integrators, logistics, commercial vehicle OEMs to benefit. Commodity impacts: lithium market deficit till 2026, surplus by 2027, copper demand reduces, aluminum benefits.

Overseas

Trump pressures oil companies: oil prices must drop faster or face DOJ probe. Trump accuses oil companies of price gouging, calls on DOJ to investigate, dragging oil prices down. Experts say this is a "political show" since gas pricing lags crude weeks. Strait of Hormuz transit improves, supply pressure may ease.

Bessent: Iran talks include dollar settlement demand, economic growth may return to 3% this year. Bessent says talks aim to bring Iran, Venezuela and Russia back into dollar settlement to strengthen dollar’s global status, US GDP growth could return to 3% this year, “3-3-3” goals still trackable.

32 banks all pass Fed annual stress test, paving way for dividends and buybacks. Simulated severe recession, all 32 banks remain above minimum capital, could withstand $708B loss. Result does not affect actual requirements, Fed freezes relevant buffers at least until 2027. Several Wall Street banks announce higher dividends and buybacks.

Report: Japan plans to improve FX reserve management, Mizuho economist says "means selling US Treasuries". Japan plans to review the management of $1.3T in reserves to improve returns and supplement finances. Sakai of Mizuho says “using reserves means selling US Treasuries. With long rates up, feasibility toward US?”

BOJ Governor speaks post-recovery: will raise rates when needed, inflation risks exist. Ueda Kazuo, recovered from illness, says bank will raise rates if inflation nears 2%, financial conditions loose. Despite clear rate hike signal, yen remains weak near 40-year lows, market alert on intervention stays high.

Micron’s last quarter revenue tripled, guidance explosive, AI supply tightness continues past 2027, shares surge after hours; Micron CEO: memory has become strategic asset in AI era, profit margin far exceeds history.

  • Micron Q3 EPS up 12x, revenue beats market by 22% and 16%, gross margin 84.9%, over double last year, new highs; core data center revenue new high, up 6.5x YoY, beat 70% market forecast. Q4 guidance new high, midpoint beats market by 16%, EPS midpoint up 22%, CapEx guidance up 12%. Memory shortage to persist till 2028, unclear when supply meets demand. Stock rose over 16% after hours.
  • Micron's 16 "take-or-pay" long-term deals lock in $100B minimum future revenue and $18B cash pre-paid. CEO says AI elevates memory to "strategic asset", tight supply lasting through 2027 due to complex process upgrades and capacity cycles. Humanoid robot’s single memory demand is 10x a regular car, may spark decades of supercycle.

Qualcomm fully enters AI data center: Meta signs multi-generation CPU deal, Microsoft Azure deploys HBC chips, expected to deliver multi-billion revenue next year. Qualcomm at investor day reveals major orders from Meta and Microsoft; Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU launches mid-2028, Meta first deploys; new AI Accelerator AI300, new data center interconnect solution; Azure to use HBC chip; automotive annual revenue estimated $6B in 2026. Qualcomm earlier announced $3.9B acquisition of Modular, an AI software company.

Nvidia CEO signals AI factory era: intelligent agents reshape the computing landscape. Huang says customers buy Nvidia systems to build revenue-generating AI factories, not just compute tools; Blackwell platform "king of inference", token throughput 30x next best; Vera Rubin "most important product" in history, Vera CPU for intelligent agents; CUDA X ecosystem "crown jewel"; no revenue from H200 chips in China since US export approval. Warns against chip smuggling, building data centers from smuggled chips is a "dead end".

Tuesday's crash → Wednesday's V-shaped rebound! Korea stock rollercoaster, Samsung buyback, rate hikes, MSCI negatives bombard. Samsung's 90T won buyback fuels rebound, but policy official's "semiconductor firms should share AI profits" comment turns chips down again before rebounding. MSCI refuses to add Korea to developed market watchlist, central bank signals rate hike, leveraged ETF speculation and mechanical algorithm sell-off add volatility; Korea stock market is "news-driven high volatility" mode, short-term rebound far from clearing risks.

Anthropic launches major update CC evolved Claude Tag, Karpathy: third LLM interaction revolution arrives. Claude Tag integrates as a Slack teammate, supports collaboration, learning, active intervention, and async execution. Karpathy says it starts the third LLM interaction revolution: AI as tool-and-context equipped, working jointly as async entity.

Anthropic’s “Mythos” model exposes US intelligence system flaws within hours, showing powerful cyber offense and defense. Mythos identified major US system vulnerabilities in hours, shocking security field. Highlights AI’s dual potential in cyber offense/defense, exposes friction with Trump admin, with regulation, access block, expert protest, AI boundary debate heats up.

Computing power battle rises: OpenAI bypasses Nvidia, teams Broadcom for custom inference chip, costs cut ~50%. OpenAI launches first in-house AI inference chip with Broadcom, sets 9-month tape-out record. Chip optimizes large model cost and efficiency, plans gigawatt scale mass production by 2026. Achieves “full stack control” infrastructure, chip design reshaping global computing competition.

Google AI talent outflow intensifies: two more core researchers join Anthropic. Gemini core developers Adler and Pritzel, and Nobel-winning Jumper, Transformer inventor Shazeer, all leave for Anthropic. Google shares dropped 5% on Jumper’s departure Monday, fell 1% after today’s news.

Masayoshi Son keynote: No AI bubble, SoftBank robots mass-produced, challenges Musk’s space data center value. At two shareholder meetings, Son refutes AI bubble claims, announces robot mass production, sets 1 Quadrillion yen net asset goal in next decade. Will work till 70 for "artificial super intelligence". On Musk’s space data center, says due to launch and latency, it's "not meaningful", reasserts ground computing is key.

Gold drops 3.6% below $4000, silver futures crash 10%, end three-year bull market? On June 24, gold fell below $4000, silver below $70, both in technical bear markets. Main negatives: Fed hawkish turn, rate expectations, dollar strength push gold ETF outflows and buyers to sidelines. Only central bank buying "remains support", Goldman and others lower target, $4000 psychological battle begins, the one-way rally ends.

Bitcoin falls below $60,000! AI draws funds, retail absent, Wall Street takes over, who catches the crash? Bitcoin dropped 5.4% to below $60,000 Wednesday, lowest since Oct. 2024, cumulative drop nearly 50%. Deutsche Bank says this is different than previous: retail absent, ETFs outflow $6B+, funds shift to AI. CoinGlass: $800M long positions liquidated past 24h.

Selected Research

“AI demand visibility” extends to 2028! Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: memory will not be oversupplied before then, semiconductor equipment to surge. BofA report extends AI demand visibility to 2028; DRAM/NAND supply remains strong, no substantial excess before then, semiconductor equipment spend to reach $250B in 2028, up 23%. Raises Micron target to $1,500.

2008 "Big Short" returns aiming at US insurers including Berkshire. Lee Robinson shorting US insurance giants via CDS, says excessive allocation to private credit, risk not fully priced, AI shocks/liquidity contraction could trigger industry chain reaction.

Top firms: More than half enterprises use AI wrong, memory becomes key moat. Cybersecurity CEO breaks down AI truth: over half trapped in “patchwork” marginal improvement, lack workflow overhaul. Token pricing will fall 90% in 3-5 years; "memory/context" will be only moat in a homogenized model world, mastering deep memory is key.

Domestic Macro

Wang Yi calls Pakistan Deputy PM/FM Dar. Wang Yi said three things to focus next: 1 - consolidate ceasefire and stop war, don’t restart conflict. Iran-EU proposal aligns with their interest and international expectations. Will support talks with all parties. 2 - resume normal transit in Strait of Hormuz, ensure global supply chain stability. 3 - support Middle East nations to improve ties, explore new regional security architecture.

Signs point to "near cycle top", but UBS insists: too early to exit China tech stocks. UBS says despite crowded positions, high valuations, increasing IPOs—signals of cycle top, maintains overweight. Rationale: current profit growth ~80%, profit forecasts up 15% in three months, order visibility to end 2027; historically, tech stocks gain avg. 48% in last 3 months before peak.

Domestic Companies

Nvidia requires PCB makers to cut prices 10%? Reporter investigates. June 23 PCB sector fell, rumors Nvidia pressed for 10% price cut/"Shenghong delayed Rubin shipment" are exaggerated. AI computing cycle, mid/high-end PCB tight, makers have bargaining power. Rubin delay due to HBM4 certification, liquid cooling, not single supplier issue.

A-shares see another "big lottery gain", 688797 up 900%. Domestic semiconductor parts leader Zhenbao Technology surged over 900% on STAR board debut June 24, peak at 465 yuan, profit per lot up to 200,000 yuan, total market cap near 66B yuan, over 850% above IPO price, one of the strongest new stocks recently.

Overseas Macro

US tech panic index nears 20-year extreme! A more alarming indicator than VIX is flashing. VIX distorted as tech volatility not spreading to broader market, Cboe Nasdaq Volatility Index VXN/VIX ratio at 1.64, highest since 2017, close to 20-year high. Panic highly concentrated in tech/AI, underscoring "crowded trades" risks.

Korea triggers "Black Tuesday", global chip bull run struck, just technical adjustment? Chip crash is not Korea’s “rumor” surprise, but necessary clearing due to overcrowded AI/leveraged fragility. Goldman, others say narrative unchanged, selloff concentrated in crowded longs, like "technical correction". But with rate hike expectations up, 65% companies in buyback blackout, pressures are mounting, boundary between correction and mid-term risks unclear.

Eye of global chip crash: Korea's plunge behind "various ghost stories". Selloff triggered by series of negatives: report SK Hynix may slow advanced chip expansion, shaking belief in AI hardware demand; Korea’s tax debate on unrealized stock gains and regulator warning on leveraged ETFs undermined confidence. Analysts say extreme volatility driven by algorithmic/mechanical selling, forced retail margin calls and institutional rebalancing, not sudden fundamental deterioration.

$2.3T! Japan launches 14-year super investment plan, nearly 1/3 bets on AI chips. Japan’s plan for fiscal 2040 totals over 370T yen ($2.3T), nearly one third on AI/semiconductors. Designed to tackle aging population and boost economy by "chip+AI" supply chain. Fiscal sustainability depends on actual growth, expansionary spending and rising rates set up a long-term trial of balancing growth and finances.

Overseas Companies

Apple foldable iPhone enters mass production countdown: hinge issue solved, September launch expected. Industry insiders say previous hinge concerns solved, September launch on track. With foldable Ultra, Apple may adjust launch strategy to strengthen high-end differentiation. Now product enters mass production preparation.

Altman’s private ATM exposed, OpenAI stashes $665B hidden risks. OpenAI CEO Altman's "saint" image collapses over related-party transactions and off-balance debt ($665B), using OpenAI resources for personal investment vehicles, personal wealth may reach several billions. US House and SEC investigating, casting big shadow over OpenAI IPO.

Industry/Concepts

1. East-Data-West-Compute / Computing Power | Shanghai MWC opens June 24. MIIT Chief Engineer Zhong Zhihong says strengthen new-gen communication and computing power network buildout, advance dual-gigabit to dual-10-gigabit network, build multi-level computing power system, deploy new infrastructure like low-altitude info, satellite internet, build integrated air-space-ground info networks.

Comment: China’s AI investment expected to grow rapidly, strong downstream demand from Internet, telecom, government, intensive smart compute projects rollout; US AI ban pushes rise of domestic computing, bullish on homegrown AI computing power led by Huawei Ascend, Hygon, Cambricon.

2. Advanced Packaging | Amkor signs 10-year strategic deal with TSMC to expand Arizona advanced packaging capacity, Phase I to complete mid-2027, start production early 2028, focus on high-end InFO, CoWoS processes.

Comment: Wide range of advanced packaging applications, driven by AI demand for high-performance computing, telecom infra is fastest growing. 2022-2028 compound annual growth rate expected at 17%.

3. Short Drama | Broadcasting authority seeks comment on Micro-Short Drama Development Management Measures (draft), supports export-oriented creation/production/distribution, supports simultaneous broadcast at home and abroad.

Comment: By 2025 China micro-short drama market to reach 67.79B yuan, up 34.40% YoY, 2030 over 150B. With AI proliferation and user vertical-screen habits, short drama entering explosive growth phase.

4. Foldable Screens | Supply chain insiders say Apple has finalized foldable iPhone specs, ready for mass production late July, on track for September launch.

Comment: Foldable phone market moves from "high-end niche testing" to "mainstream high-end" critical transition. Apple's large user base will boost consumer awareness, drive mainstream adoption, industry hotness and buying intent may rise anew.

5. Industrial Internet | MIIT and five departments launch industrial 5G standalone private network pilot, support large enterprises in key industries (raw materials, manufacturing, electronics, defense, energy, transport) to build dedicated networks.

Comment: Industrial 5G standalone networks meet critical requirements like data not leaving factory, dedicated network resources, accelerating "5G+ industrial internet" enablement for thousands of industries.

6. Coal | Coke coal supply remains tight, 155 coking coal mines in Shanxi halted, capacity totals 183.1M tonnes. As of June 17 only 97 mines resumed, 58 mines (65.7M tonnes) still halted, showing “resume without full capacity”. Mainstream coke makers initiate ninth round of price hikes, effective June 26.

Today's News Preview

US Q1 real GDP.

US May core PCE price index, personal consumption and income.

US weekly initial jobless claims.

US May durable goods orders.

Fed's Williams, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speeches.

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Risk Disclosure & DisclaimerMarkets carry risks, investments need caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice and does not take into account individual user’s specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether opinions or conclusions herein fit their situation. Invest at own risk. ```