Wallstreetcn Morning Briefing FM-Radio | November 3, 2025

Wallstreetcn Morning Briefing FM-Radio | November 3, 2025

```

Huajian Morning Voice

Please update to the latest version of the JIANWEN APP to successfully listen to the following audio.

Buffett says, "Understand downside risk before investing." Get the 2026 Limited Edition Stock God JIANWEN Calendar and follow legendary wisdom! Click the image below to purchase

Market Overview

On Friday, Amazon soared nearly 10%, strong earnings boosted tech stocks, and the three major U.S. indexes closed higher. Apple opened high after earnings but closed slightly down. Meta fell 2.72%, dropping for the second consecutive day, down nearly 12% in October. After digesting geopolitical risks, Powell’s hawkish comments, and month-end selling, U.S. stock indexes rose for the month of October, marking at least six consecutive months of gains.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped 0.4 basis points, up 9.23 basis points for the week. The dollar rose for three consecutive days, up 0.27% intra-day. The USD/CNH rose 118 points, returning to 7.12. Mainstream cryptos rebounded across the board Friday, Bitcoin rose 1.80%, testing $111,000, and Ethereum surged over 3.9% at one point.

Spot gold fluctuated down by 0.55%, to $4,002, dropping below $4,000 intra-day Friday. Oil was volatile due to the situation in Venezuela, rising in the session then pulling back.

"Fu Peng Says: Season 6" Fully Upgraded! Scan the code to join the column community, get updates of timely market commentary & extended reading! Subscribe Now >>

Headlines

Xi Jinping's speech at the second session of the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Informal Meeting.

Xi Jinping meets with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.

MOFCOM spokesperson answers reporters' questions regarding Nexperia Semiconductor.

MOFCOM: Urges Japan to remove Chinese entities from the restricted export list as soon as possible.

U.S. government shutdown nears historical record, Trump misjudges Democrats' resolve, "critical moment" arrives! Bessent: If inflation falls, the Fed should cut rates.

After the October decision, the first wave of Fed officials weighs in: 3 oppose rate cuts in October, Waller supports a December rate cut. Rare internal rift within the Fed for six years, "Bond King" Gross shorts U.S. Treasuries!

Microsoft financials leak OpenAI's financials: $11.5 billion loss in a single quarter. Rare public dialogue between Microsoft and OpenAI CEOs: OpenAI restructuring, AI bubble doubts, computing power demand.

Berkshire Q3 operating profit up 34%, cash reserves soar to a record $381.7 billion, sold $6.1 billion in stocks in Q3, no buyback for five consecutive quarters, $184 billion in shares sold in three years.

October NEV companies results: Leapmotor deliveries top 70k for the first time, XPeng and NIO set records, Xiaomi delivers steadily at 40k.

OPEC+ agrees to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, will halt production increases in Q1 next year.

Value investing heavyweights Yang Dong and Chen Guangming consecutively "close funds."

 

Market Close

US & European Stocks: S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 6,840.20, up 0.71% for the week, up 2.27% for October, sixth consecutive month of gains. Dow rose 0.09% to 47,562.87, up 2.51% for October, six consecutive months of gains. Nasdaq rose 0.61% to 23,724.957, up 4.70% for October, up for seven months. Europe STOXX 600 fell 0.51% to 571.89, down 0.22% for the week, up 2.46% in October.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite down 0.81% to 3,954.79, Shenzhen Component down 1.14% to 13,378.21, ChiNext down 2.31% to 3,187.53.

Bonds: 10-yr US Treasury yield down 0.40 bps to 4.0930%, up 9.23 bps for the week, down 5.73 bps for October. 2-yr US Treasury yield down 1 bps to 3.5983%, up 11.83 bps for the week, down 1.01 bps for October.

Commodities: COMEX Gold futures up 0.06% to $4,018.50/oz, up 3.76% for October. WTI Dec crude up 0.68% to $60.98/bbl, down 1.58% for October. Brent Dec crude up 0.11% to $65.07/bbl.

Headline Details

Global Spotlight

Xi Jinping's speech at the second session of the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Informal Meeting. Xi stated, China proposes to set up a World AI Cooperation Organization, hoping to provide AI public goods for the world by collaborating on strategies, governance rules, and technical standards.

Xi Jinping meets South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. Xi gave 4 suggestions to usher in a new phase of China-Korea relations, speeding up the FTA Phase II talks, tapping the cooperation potential in AI, biopharma, green industry, silver economy, and upgrading economic/trade cooperation.

MOFCOM spokesperson answers on Nexperia Semiconductor. China has responded to queries from journalists on Nexperia. The main point: Dutch government interference in corporate matters has caused global supply chain chaos. China welcomes companies facing difficulties to contact MOFCOM for assistance. For eligible companies, export exemptions will be considered.

MOFCOM: Urges Japan to remove Chinese entities from the restricted export list soon. On Oct 30, Minister Wang Wentao met Japan’s Economic Minister Akazawa Ryosei, discussing trade relations. Wang pointed out current unilateralism and protectionism are affecting the global trade order, and both sides should make use of export control dialogue mechanisms to ensure supply chain stability. China urges Japan to remove Chinese entities from restricted export lists and uphold WTO-centered multilateral trade.

US gov. shutdown duration nears record, Trump miscalculates Democrats, "critical moment" arrives! The shutdown will reach 32 days, closing on the record of 35 days. The lapse in SNAP funds for 42 million Americans on Nov 1 could create a major livelihood crisis. Senate plans a new vote Nov 3, but both parties remain divided on core issues.

Bessent: If inflation falls, the Fed should cut rates. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump has not imposed a 10% tariff on Canada yet. On recession: we are in a transition. If inflation goes down, the Fed should cut rates. Some sectors are already in recession. If the Fed cuts mortgage rates, the housing recession may end. On Canada: reconciliation will happen, negotiations will resume.

After Oct decision, first wave of Fed voices: 3 oppose Oct rate cut, Waller supports December cut. On Friday, 3 Fed officials opposed rate cuts, suggesting rising challenges for hawks. Voter Schmid said inflation remains high. Next year's voter Logan said, unless there's strong evidence inflation will drop or the job market cools faster than expected, it's hard to support a Dec cut. Market currently sees 61% chance of further cut by year-end, vs 92% before Powell’s speech.

Microsoft's financials leak OpenAI's data: $11.5 billion loss last quarter. Microsoft's equity method investment in OpenAI reduced their quarterly profit by $3.1 billion. Given Microsoft owns about 27% of OpenAI, OpenAI lost about $11.5B last quarter; considering 32.5% effective stake pre-tax, the loss may top $12B—nearly three times this year's H1 revenue.

Rare public dialogue between Microsoft and OpenAI CEOs: OpenAI restructuring, AI bubble doubts, compute demand. On OpenAI restructuring, Altman clarified that only the "stateless API" is exclusively on Azure until 2030. Regarding $1.4T in compute expenses, Altman stressed revenue will surpass forecasts and scaling compute will nearly scale revenue. Nadella noted the industry's biggest problem isn't surplus chips, but lack of electricity. Eventually, chips may pile up unused, but compute surplus will happen in the end.

US data center boom: 45GW, $2.5T investment, who’s building, who's paying? Barclays Research said planned/underway US datacenter projects top 45GW, with investments over $2.5T. Leading cloud firms (OpenAI, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, xAI) are major players. Private equity and infra funds also play a key role.

Berkshire Hathaway Q3 profit up 34%, cash reserves jump to a record $381.7B, sold $6.1B in stocks in Q3, no buybacks for five quarters, sold $184B in three years.

  • Berkshire's Q3 insurance profit jumped over 200% to $2.37B, main engine of growth. Cash reserves hit a record $381.7B but underperformed the market. Top Q3 sells: Apple, AmEx, BofA. This is Buffett's last report before stepping down, highlighting cautious investing.

October NEV CEO scorecard: Leapmotor delivers 70k+, XPeng, NIO set records, Xiaomi stable at 40k. Leapmotor led with 70k+ deliveries, XPeng and NIO set monthly records, Xiaomi stable at 40k+. Others performed well too: Avatr broke 10k for 8 months, Lantu delivered 17,218 units in October.

OPEC+ will raise oil output 137,000 bpd in December, pause increases in Q1 next year. OPEC+ agreed to a slight hike in December, but will pause in Q1 2026, traditionally a low demand period. They hope to hold the next round of meetings offline instead of virtually.

Value investing titan's signal? Yang Dong, Chen Guangming both "close funds". Chen's Ruixuan Funds will close new investment for some accounts from November. Yang Dong’s Ningquan Asset will suspend new investors into all funds from October 30, 2025. Existing investors can add. Industry insiders say private closures usually result from rapid inflows or cautious outlooks.

China Macro

China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, non-manufacturing rose to 50.1, three key industries remain in expansion. High-tech, equipment, consumer goods PMIs were respectively 50.5, 50.2, and 50.1, higher than overall manufacturing. New orders index at 46%, unchanged, still below threshold, indicating weak non-manufacturing demand.

  • Latest Shenwan Hongyuan report shows both supply and demand fell, October manufacturing PMI contracted faster. Twin holidays boosted October services. Travel-related business indices were all above 60. October PMI shows low-pressure economy, attention in bond markets may rise after previous stress releases.
  • Guosheng Securities judges, Current economy signals an accelerated fall but will not stop hitting the 5% annual target. Short-term policies will intensify but focus on next year, as well as the “15th five-year” plan. Focus on the policy meetings in early/mid-December. In the near term, watch policy tools, quota allocations, and Treasury buy/sell effects in Q4.

Two ministries: Taxpayers who don't sell standard gold through exchanges must pay VAT per regulations. On Nov 1, Finance and Tax Bureaus announced gold VAT policy: Units selling standard gold via SH Gold Exchange or SH Futures Exchange are exempt. Otherwise, VAT applies as usual.

CICC quick take on new public fund performance benchmarks: Style drift more toward alpha, back to investment research roots. CICC says the new rules will make it hard for managers to speculate on style drift for short-term inflows.

New breakthrough in Chinese nuclear technology! May reduce uranium dependence for nuclear power. The 2MW thorium molten salt test reactor led by Shanghai Inst. of Applied Physics has successfully achieved first conversion with thorium-uranium fuel—currently the only running molten salt reactor with thorium, a key feasibility validation.

Domestic Companies

Vanke: SZ Metro agrees to provide up to RMB 22B in loans. On Nov 2, Vanke announced a framework agreement with its major shareholder, SZ Metro, for up to RMB 22B in loans, including unsecured credit before and secured loans after the effective date.

Global Macro

How big is the current AI bubble? UBS: This round is more "reasonable" than the TMT era, three signs of a peak have not appeared yet. UBS sees a potential early bubble but highlights that extreme valuations, long-term overheating catalysts, and short-term topping signals have not appeared. Generative AI's productivity and current government balance sheet risks provide stronger fundamental support than the dot-com era.

Mainstream global asset narrative: Consensus shakes but not reversed. Market volatility has risen but the root narrative has not changed: (1) Fiscal and monetary expansion continues; (2) No one-way reversal in geopolitics, trade order, or central bank gold buying; (3) No second-order inflection in AI capital spending.

"Consumer confidence at multi-decade lows"! Goldman warns US middle class consumption is stalling, 25–35s "tighten wallets". Consumption sluggishness has spread from low- to middle-income households, especially 25–35s. Kraft Heinz CEO says consumer confidence is "worst in decades." Stock performance reflects deteriorating fundamentals; "mid-market" chains' stocks plunge, discretionary sector lags S&P by 500 points.

Yen falls to 8-month low, is Japan about to intervene? New finance minister issues strong warning: watching closely with urgency. The yen has dropped about 5% in the last month. New finance minister's strongest verbal warning yet—closely monitoring FX with great urgency. As USD/JPY nears the psychological 155, conditions mature for action.

Bitcoin fell nearly 5% in October, first October drop in six years. Bitcoin broke its string of October gains since 2018, falling from a record $126K mid-month to $104K on Trump's tariff rumors, triggering the biggest liquidation ever. Uncertainty keeps volatility high and inflows limited.

Global Companies

Amazon's "AI turning point" emerges? Amazon AWS's Project Rainier core data center now fully operational, now training Anthropic’s Claude with nearly 500,000 Trainium 2 chips (expected to double to 1M by year's end), making it one of the world's largest AI training computers. Amazon's AI infra expansion is shifting from planning to delivery. MS expects AWS revenue will grow 23% and 25% over the next two years; BofA projects Anthropic alone could add $6B to AWS revenue by 2026.

Nvidia's 36 direct reports to Jensen Huang. Besides 3 veterans (Jonah Alben, Dwight Diercks, Bill Dally), a new Chinese face got attention: Nvidia VP Wu Xinchou now oversees global auto business strategy, products, and execution.

Betting on Anthropic pays off for Google and Amazon, both gain over $10B on the books. Alphabet’s Q3 profit included $10.7B equity gains, partly from Anthropic’s surge to $183B valuation. Amazon's stake adds pre-tax $9.5B benefit. Gen AI fervor is bringing real returns in public company reports.

Ilya forced into court by Musk, exposing jaw-dropping Altman and OpenAI secrets. After firing Altman, OpenAI’s board activated "Plan B": seriously explored merging with top competitor Anthropic, with its CEO Dario Amodei possibly leading OpenAI after such a merger.

First human mechanical "ascension", Musk touts Neuralink beats all of humanity. Neuralink has been implanted in 12 people, used for over 2,000 days cumulatively. Patients go from bedridden to stage, learning calculus, studying neuroscience, even starting careers—the tech not only restores freedom but also enhances human abilities.

US data center power demand: "off-grid" solutions handle 1/4 to 1/3; fuel cells cover "25-50%". Off-grid power is crucial in solving the AI energy crunch. Goldman predicts 20–25GW size by 2030, fuel cells may take as much as 20GW of that, powering the future of AI.

US electricity project reserve: solar/wind to concentrate over next two years, natural gas and storage plan surges for future. Most new solar projects will be grid-tied in the next two years (94%/99% of added capacity per GS); natural gas/storage plans are up 127%/60% year-on-year, with many slated for 2028–2030.

Data centers driving up costs? AI impacts US midterm politics via power prices. Highest electricity price rises over past three years are mostly in Democratic strongholds, with Maryland, Delaware, California seeing 29% increases. Republicans are leveraging voter frustration over soaring bills to try to undercut Democrats, blaming green energy policies.

Goldman: Eli Lilly at the dawn of "biopharma’s strongest new product cycle". Goldman says oral weight-loss drug orforglipron could be one of the most important new product cycles in biopharma ever. Management says global regulatory filing is imminent; US launch expected next year.

Industries/Concepts

1. Nuclear Fuel | On Nov 1, the Chinese Academy of Sciences confirmed that its 2MW liquid fuel thorium-based molten salt reactor, led by Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, has successfully completed its first thorium-uranium conversion. This achievement not only fills the international gap by providing first ever reactor-run data for thorium, but also makes it the only operating molten salt reactor using thorium globally, providing key feasibility validation.

Commentary: Director Dai Zhimin says the goal is by 2035 to complete and demonstrate a 100MW thorium molten salt reactor, accelerating its application and technological upgrade—a new path for safe, reliable thorium energy. As China's top fourth-gen fission tech, its safety is notable: instead of high pressure, it runs at atmospheric, eliminating explosion risks. China has abundant thorium; the thorium-uranium cycle generates U-233 enabling vast nuclear energy, making this approach highly compatible with China’s resources.

2. Humanoid Robots | According to People.cn, the 15th National Games torch relay began Nov 2 in Shenzhen. The humanoid robot "Kuafu" independently completed a torch relay, running with a 1.6kg flame baton—this is the world's first fully autonomous torch relay by humanoid. Developed by Shenzhen's Leju Robotics, it runs OpenHarmony OS.

Commentary: According to Dongguan Securities, humanoid robots are moving from sci-fi to reality, becoming the next disruptive platform after computers and smartphones, a new tech frontier. Global market size was RMB 2.56B in 2024, projected to reach RMB 64.22B by 2030, a CAGR of 58.90%.

3. Artificial Intelligence | Jiemian reports Nvidia, Korea's Ministry of Science/ICT, Samsung, Hyundai, SK have agreed to deploy over 260,000 AI chips for Korea’s AI projects. Korea plans to use these to accelerate digitization for automotive, manufacturing, semiconductors, and telecom.

Commentary: Shanghai Securities News says Nvidia foresees 20 million Blackwell+Rubin GPUs shipped by 2026, worth $500B. Last gen Hopper shipped only 4 million in its life. Cinda Securities notes NA cloud leaders' AI spending remains high, and supply chain companies will continue to deliver. With new models in China/abroad, AI-related stocks could maintain strong momentum.

4. Intelligent Agents | TechWeb reports Huawei’s Mate 80 series has begun reservations, likely to launch in November. Mate 80 may revolutionize interaction: one sentence and an agent handles cloud-based tasks, no more tedious app downloads. Features Kirin 9030 chip and active cooling. Not just hardware, but a leap from tool to smart assistant.

Commentary: China Securities Journal notes AI phone iterations are accelerating. Before, smart features meant voice assistant and camera upgrades, now it’s system-level smart collaboration. As on-device models improve, more tasks run locally. In the future, phones transition from app containers to truly intelligent personal assistants with perception, memory, learning, and execution.

5. Smart Cities | NDRC and others issued "Action Plan to Deepen Smart City Development": By end-2027, digital enablement of urban management, handling major events, and providing public services will be markedly improved. 50+ cities will complete full-domain digital transformation. Mega-cities will establish smart management systems, adapt local AI models, and a batch of globally competitive modern cities will emerge by 2035.

Today’s Key Events Preview

China October RatingDog Manufacturing PMI.

US, Eurozone, UK October Manufacturing PMI.

Next US Senate vote to end gov shutdown as early as the evening of Nov 3.

Hong Kong Fintech Week; International Financial Leaders Investment Summit in Hong Kong.

Palantir earnings.

<End of Full Text>

 

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market contains risks, invest cautiously. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it consider any one user's unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should carefully consider whether any opinion or conclusion in this article suits their own situation. Actions based on this article are at your own risk. ```