Warning signal for US stocks: Consumption willingness among low-income and young people in the US is rapidly declining

Young and low-income groups, which are an important part of the U.S. consumer market, are tightening their spending.

On November 11, according to a report provided to clients by Goldman Sachs analysts, the spending situation of low-income consumers in the U.S. continues to worsen. The report cites real-time spending data from HundredX, showing that among low-income and younger consumers—Generation Z and Millennials—there has been a sharp decline in the willingness to spend on discretionary categories such as dining, apparel, beauty, home improvement, electronics, and travel.

This data is collected weekly from feedback provided by tens of thousands of consumers, and is used to measure spending likelihood in key sectors.

Analysts believe that the sharp drop in purchase intent coincides with the timing of the “student loan default cliff” that emerged at the end of summer. At the same time, cycles of negative news around a possible government shutdown have also intensified consumers’ pessimism. The combined effect of these two factors is putting pressure on consumers’ financial situations and future expectations, thereby suppressing their spending behavior.

For investors, this trend is an early warning that cannot be ignored. Consumption is the core driving force of the U.S. economy. A sharp reduction in spending intentions among low-income and young groups could signal a broader slowdown in consumption, posing a challenge to the performance and stock prices of related listed companies.

Trump: Every American Will Receive a $2,000 "Dividend"

Against the backdrop of weak spending intention, on Sunday, November 9, U.S. President Trump posted on social media saying that his tariff policies will “bring at least a $2,000 dividend to everyone,” except for high-income groups.

Wallstreetcn wrote that a preliminary calculation by the U.S. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump’s “tariff rebate” plan would cost as much as $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $300 billion. Economists have criticized this as an “irresponsible” approach, potentially repeating the severe inflation triggered by pandemic stimulus measures. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted that the “$2,000 dividend” may take the form of a tax cut.

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