Weight loss effects comparable to surgery! Eli Lilly’s RETA becomes the most powerful “weight loss miracle drug” in history—“Will obesity become a rare disease within a few years?”

``` Eli Lilly’s new generation weight loss drug retatrutide (referred to as "RETA") delivered new Phase III clinical data that has shaken the scientific community and capital markets—the highest average weight loss among participants reached 28% of body weight, about 70 pounds, with nearly half losing more than 30%, and some patients with severe obesity losing up to 85 pounds on average over 104 weeks. This level of weight loss entirely matches the range previously only seen with bariatric surgery. Multiple independent medical experts not involved in the study called this result "the most significant weight loss ever seen in any drug trial." Lilly stated that it will submit a regulatory approval application for RETA to the US FDA as early as this year. After the news was released, Lilly's share price continued rising, pushing its market value close to the $1 trillion mark. RETA’s sudden emergence not only marks a new evolutionary stage for GLP-1 drugs but is also seen by the market as a systemic shock to the “overconsumption economy.” Industries from dining, fast food, alcohol to processed foods have already seen their stock prices come under pressure. Some medical professionals have even predicted: "In a few years, obesity will once again become a rare disease." RETA Clinical Data: Weight Loss Comparable to Surgery The core breakthrough of RETA lies in its “triple agonist” mechanism. Unlike previous GLP-1 drugs, RETA simultaneously targets the GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon metabolic pathways. Lilly’s current star product, Zepbound, is only a dual agonist, targeting GLP-1 and GIP. According to NBC News, the Phase III clinical trial enrolled about 2,300 obese or overweight patients, with a study duration of 80 weeks. Results showed that patients on the highest dose lost an average of 28% of their body weight, about 70 pounds, with nearly half losing more than 30%. In a group of severely obese patients who used the drug for 104 weeks, the average weight loss reached 85 pounds. As a reference, in 72-week studies, Zepbound’s highest dose group lost an average of about 21%, while Wegovy’s highest dose group lost about 15% over 68 weeks. It should be noted that these data come from separate independent clinical trials. Weight loss surgery typically achieves a 25% to 35% reduction in body weight over one to two years. RETA’s data has now overlapped greatly with this range, prompting many experts to declare it a “game changer.” Dr. Susan Spratt, Senior Medical Director of Population Health Management at Duke Health, and endocrinologist, said: “This is the largest weight loss I’ve ever seen in any drug trial, which is significant.” Filling the Efficacy Gaps in Existing GLP-1s RETA’s clinical value not only lies in breaking weight loss records, but also in its potential to benefit patients who do not respond to existing GLP-1 drugs. Dr. Shauna Levy, Medical Director of the Tulane Weight Loss Center, noted that for patients with a BMI of 35 and above, existing GLP-1 drugs often do not produce enough weight loss. “Bariatric surgery can provide sufficient weight loss, but RETA also looks like an effective tool to help high BMI patients achieve a healthy weight.” Dr. Spratt further stated that about 10% of patients do not respond to existing GLP-1 drugs, and RETA could be valuable for this group. “For GLP-1 non-responders, this drug may be very useful.” As for side effects, RETA is similar to other GLP-1 drugs, with common side effects being nausea, constipation, and diarrhea. Lilly also disclosed that, compared with the placebo group, the RETA group had higher reported rates of abnormal skin sensations and urinary tract infections. The trial dropout rate was higher than Zepbound, but similar to Wegovy. At present, Lilly has not yet submitted a regulatory application for RETA to the FDA, but the company said it intends to do so as early as this year. More Than Just Weight Loss: GLP-1 as a "Master Metabolic Switch" The arrival of RETA is prompting the market to re-evaluate the strategic value of the entire GLP-1 class—their impact goes far beyond weight loss. Current research shows GLP-1 drugs have positive effects on reducing cardiovascular risk, improving sleep apnea, protecting kidney function, and reducing addictive behaviors. The latest potential breakthrough comes from oncology: Cleveland Clinic will present data at the world’s largest cancer conference, showing that among more than 10,000 cancer patients, GLP-1 users experienced 38-50% slower tumor progression in breast, lung, colorectal, liver and other cancers. Researchers emphasize, however, that this data is still in its early stages. On the drug development side, the pharmaceutical industry has moved from dual agonists to triple, quadruple, and even quintuple agonists, simultaneously targeting multiple metabolic pathways. Some believe the race to develop obesity drugs has become an “arms race” targeting human metabolic mechanisms. Medical professional Dr. Danish even boldly predicted: “In a few years, obesity will once again be considered a rare disease.” Lilly Closing in on $1 Trillion, Consumer Sectors Under Pressure Meanwhile, news around RETA is driving significant structural shifts in capital markets. Lilly shares have continued to benefit from RETA expectations, heading toward record highs and the $1 trillion valuation milestone. At the same time, the Lilly Endowment’s assets under management are approaching $100 billion. Yet the rise of GLP-1 drugs is having a direct impact on numerous consumer sectors. According to Deutsche Bank research, after starting medication, the proportion of patients who eat out at restaurants dropped from 55% to 31%; visits to fast food and cafes fell from two-thirds to 37%; while takeout orders and drinking dropped from over half to about one-third. Significantly, even after stopping the drug, most GLP-1 users maintained new eating habits—“Once established, the new habits basically continue.” According to data from JPMorgan, the overall net performance of the US restaurant sector continues to decline, with the long/short ratio hitting a many-year low in the first percentile. The alcohol industry is also in deep trouble. Tequila brand Cuervo’s stock has lost about 70% in the past five years, with its enterprise value plunging over 70% since 2021; Diageo has also seen consistent declines, with about $50 billion in market cap evaporated. Additionally, the processed food sector is cited as another potential victim of the GLP-1 wave. 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